The Iran and Wider Middle East Thread

It is not acceptable to insult fellow forum members.
Cooper said:
I notice that all your very extensive "tapping" is from assorted jihadi sources.

This is going to be a horrible Christmas for the Christians of Syria.
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Do you think character assassination and disingenuous gossipgirl tier insinuations are going to get you out of the corner you’ve trapped yourself into?

Willingly cordoning off opposing views and sources is a clear sign of someone who wishes to stay ignorant. Only follow the news sources which fit your established bias. More intelligent people know to follow every angle with an invested narrative.

Your whiny longing for online hugboxes does explain your constant brainfarts though. Because my e-daddies just said so!! Three days to Kiev, the end of NATO is nigh, Israel is doooomed because scary rockets from Hezb and HTS only launched a minor pinprick because Bashar is on the job and 9D chess.

You've become legit embarrassing. You went from though leader on late stage RVF to fringe clown that gets thrown around the ring like a ragdoll on CIK. Literally, literally always wrong. Here's to hoping there are some deep internal conflicts going on in that tiny undeveloped brain of yours - but then again, probably not.
 
Cooper said:
Unlike Hezbollah, the jihadis in Syria are mostly astroturfed groups,
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Translation: Jihadists that (partially) allign themselves with US geopolitical objectives BAD.

And: Jihadists that (partially) allign themselves with forces opposing US geopolitical objectives GOOD.

Ergo: ISIS, al Qaida, Kavkaz Emirate, Turkestan Islamic Party, TTP, Rohingya militants etc BAD

And: the IRGC, Hezbollah, Hamas, Taliban, Iraqi militias Kadyrov's goons, Houthis etc GOOD

One foreign funded proxy force based on Quranic principles and upholder of Islamic supremacist anti Christian doctrine GOOD, the other one BAD. Denominator: US stance on the matter.
IMG_20241202_232506_893.jpg

You just can't help yourself Coop, can ya? Always looking for a narrative to push, framework to establish or objective truth to bend aka lie. Let's keep it real, you don't give a rat's ass about Christians in the Middle East or anywhere else - that's just a facade used on places where it comes in handy. Because if you did care, you wouldn't spend hundreds of hours whitewashing literal jihadist scumbags that by a stroke of luck happen to be on 'your side'.

Just for the lolz. Some very recent pictures of some 'based' Muslims - the photo of the Citadel in Aleppo is barely a day old. The people on the photo below that, current and former Hamas top dogs Meshaal and Haniyeh would probably laugh their asses of if they'd see your antics. IMG_20241202_231925_610.jpgIMG_20241202_232503_264.jpg

Got so many more bullets in the chamber but time is running out. Here's another spicy one. Former IRGC top dog Qassem Soleimani in Bosnia Herzegovina, 1995. He and his IRGC squad had relocated to Bosnia to 'defend the Muslims' aka ethnically clean Serbian villages on 'Muslim land'. Turdworldists in the paid and bought for 'alternative media' would love to bury this story but unfortunately for your ilk that's a no from me.

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One more the Taliban - which on late stage RVF was referred to as the TaliChads because anti-America even though deeply anti Christian and proper genocidalists to boot, has recently come out in support of their long term ally HTS/al Qaida. Fits in great with their shared treatment of Christians I guess. Will post when we get a good spicy news article so stay tuned.


The constant flipflopping between good and bad Jihadist is clownesque. Fortunately yours truly doesn't have to undergo this type of self inflicted spiritual humiliation or engage in mental gymnastics for the sake of muh narrative. It's very simple. Islam's anti Christian, the Quran is anti Christian, Islam's history is anti Christian, Islam's theology is anti Christian and all major schools of Islamic jurisprudence are anti Christian.

To hell with your dumbass insincere binary dichotomy - framing ethnic and religious supremacists as morally right because the other option is genocidalist. It's disgusting. Wish we actually had a couple of MENA Christians on this board because out of the dozens I met not a single one had anything positive to say about your fav pet beardos.
 
I just saw an interview of one of the Jihadis that is fighting against Assad and the government forces. It was clear that he had no idea why he was fighting, or for what cause. He was fighting just for the sake of fighting. "Praise be to Allah" and all that.

The uptick in this conflict is just the latest facade of the Potemkin village the US has constructed using the whole Middle East, it's countries and it's peoples. All solely on behalf of the Zionist entity and it's interests.

Every conflict has been carefully constructed and managed so as that everybody has the Zionists in second place on their hate list. That way they can divide and conquer the whole region. The nations that has had the Zionists first on their list has been destroyed or bought off, one by one. Only Iran remains.

The resources that has gone into this project is truly mind-boggling. Untold trillions of dollars has been spent. Many historians point to the war in Vietnam as the point where the US peaked and went into recline, and that the costs of the war forever altered US economy. But they never mention that this was also the time that the US started to give unconditional support to Israel, and started to fund all their wars and ambitions. God alone knows how much this project has cost the US.
 
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HTS has released a communique coupled with propaganda push to frame itself as the rightful and genuine protector of religious minorities in the newly acquired territories. This comes in the wake of a diplomatic outreach to Russia, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the majority pseudo commie SDF.

GdkwFcPWwAAOoY2.jpeg





First Mass in HTS held Aleppo

IMG_20241203_085001_203.jpgIMG_20241203_085001_349.jpgIMG_20241203_085002_107.jpg

Many won't trust them and rightfully so. To put it bluntly, they are full of sh*t and obviously hiding their true colors in an effort to gain international recognition/support. But then it does beg the question why the same superduper sharp nooooticers online (unless it touches on anything ((Russia)) or ((international communitism)) related) swallow similar cheap and easily disproven propaganda campaigns from a slightly different Islamic flavor just across the border hook line and sinker without a speck of critical thinking.

Hezbollah, which for some reason got turned into the turdworldist posterchild, has by far been the most influential factor in breaking the Christian powerhold on Lebanon. Turning a constitutionally Christian dominated country - the only one in the Middle East, with a 50+ percent Christian population, into an Islamic Khomeinist holdout and (failed) proxy outpost of Twelver Shia imperialism. In under 30 years of Hezbollah the original Christian Lebanese have gone from kingmaker to becoming politically marginalized and intimidated, and have in numbers dwindled to barely 30 percent of the population.

What HTS is trying to achieve is what Hezbollah pulled of 20-30 years ago, and the Taliban 2-3 years ago. A wolf in sheeps clothing but with similar goals and objectives - yet veiled from the greater public. Creating an Islamic State in Lebanon. Hezbollah hides behind a razor thin veneer like HTS is trying to create now.

Nasrallah has been very clear in the past on his goals. Turning Lebanon into an Islamic State under the auspices of Iran. Christians will simply have to get used to their second class citizen status in the country that was once designed for them and them alone.



The reality is crystal clear to anyone who doesn't voluntarily confine himself to turdworldist fanboy channels for information. In modern Lebanon, whenever nationalist Christians stand up for themselves, Hezbollah immediately rushes in to intimidate and beat them into submission. The Christian-Islamic Brotherhood narrative is only for the non-sensically barking, disgruntled, painfully uninformed and easily played hillbillies in rural Kentucky and the likes. In Lebanon it's straight up Islamic supremacy and anyone who doesn't agree with that gets a halal jackboot in his neck.

Plenty of examples, like the Tayouneh incident. Here an armed Hezbollah crowd marched on the Christian district of Tayouneh to intimidate judge Bitar into giving up his inquiry into the 2020 Beirut blast. During the march vandalism, assaults and sectarian slogans were a dime a dozen. In the wake of that violence Christian militia members took the decision to defend their neighborhood. As the mob got close to the Courthouse Lebanese Forces militia snipers positioned around the area opened fire killing 7 Hezbollah members.



At that time a new civil war seemed right around the corner. The right wing Christian factions would have been obliterated if that had happened - but it were the Iranians (in turn threatened by the US) that told Hezbollah to back off. This is the reality of Christians in Lebanon, it's either oppression or (the treat of) violence.
 
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Update day #7

The situation on the battlefield continues to deteriorate for the SAA. Therefor I suggest that Coopy and ilk close their sensitive little eyes and scroll down real hard from this point onward. Failure to do so can lead to physical discomfort, increased heart rates and ruined moods. Those fragile little egos have been dented enough already by having to read all those non-approved sources, news feeds and factoids from people whose perspective and thinking process don't necessarily 99 percent overlap with aforementioned internet jockeys of Truth. Horrible. You have been warned!


Hama governate. During the last 48 hours there has been strong Russian AF activity in Northern Hama and Southern Idlib (Morek - Khan Sheikhoun axis). It suggested the softening up of enemy positions before a push into this area by the 25th/ Tiger Forces beefed up by the (allegedly) thousands of Afghan (Fatemiyoun Brigade) and Iraqi (Badr Brigade, Kataib Hezbollah, Asaib al Haqq, Imam Ali Brigade) irregulars that have been pouring in from Iraq.

However, the opposite happened. After a 24 hour breather HTS+allies have started advancing again. Souran and Halfaya were brought under HTS control. Imam Taiyeb most likely too, although video evidence is still missing. On Hama City's eastern flank HTS+allies took control over several smaller villages that make an outflanking push likely. In the Western al Ghab plain - directly adjacent to the hills of Latakia HTS+allies advanced towards Qalaat al Mudiq and took the area north of it.

IMG_20241203_132013_931.jpg







In short, HTS+allies have hit the loyalist Suqailabiyah-Mhardeh-Qomhane line and they have kept the momentum going. On Hama City's eastern flank HTS+allies have advanced beyond that. The next 48 hours will be crucial. If HTS+allies manage to advance into Hama City that would be very, very bad news.

Aleppo Governate: The Turkish backed SNA has successfully concluded its Dawn of Freedom operation. The town of Tall Rifaat and the surrounding countryside have been brought under SNA+allies control. After the fall of Tell Rifaat the SNA and SDF struck a deal wherein thousands of SDF fighters and Kurdish civilians were granted permission to be transported to the SDF held areas further east in the infamous green buses. The SNA and allies are currently conducting combing operations in the vast tunnel system the SDF built under the city.

Some of the tunnels allegedly ran for kilometers linking cities and towns underground.



As a result of the surrender of the Tell Rifaat pocket the M5 Highway leading from Aleppo into Turkey is now secured.



In Eastern Aleppo the SNA and Sharqiya al Sham made a public announcement that they would start targetting SDF held Manbij and surrounding countryside - ergo the SDF held area East of the Euphrates. So far only minor skirmishes in the border areas have occurred.

Gd1FaEEW4AEbAbV.jpeg

Similar threats have been ushered by Turkey and proxies in the past but were always rebuffed by the USA. The SDF continues to be the US' main project in Syria.



Deir Ezzor Governate: after days of uncertainty, rumours about an SDF offensive versus the SAA garrison stationed across the Euphrates river are getting stronger. It is likely the SDF will launch a limited attack on these settlements in the next 24-48 hours or so.

The goal is to take over the beachhead established by the SAA on the Eastern flank of the Euphrates. This happened in 2017 in the wake of ISIS collapse. The operation has been named 'Operation Return'. So far news about this operation is scarce.

EDIT: Operation Return has begun. Notice on the map the settlement of Khusham, this is where Wagner+SAA and US forces went toe to toe after the former tried to take hold of the Conoco Oilfields. This was in 2018.

GdzutlnbQAA4bFg.jpeg





In addition, reports of US bombing/strafing runs on IRGC/Iraqi militia convoys passing through the landbridge have increased in number. Allegedly the bombing runs took place near Al Mayadeen. So far no video evidence or official statements yet hence this too might be an internet induced phantom event.

In supply lines related news Israel turned back an Iranian cargo flight destined to land at Latakia AB.

IMG_20241203_111414_086.jpg
 
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LaAguilaNegra said:
Update day #7

The situation on the battlefield continues to deteriorate for the SAA. Therefor I suggest that Coopy and ilk close their sensitive little eyes and scroll down real hard from this point onward. Failure to do so can lead to physical discomfort, increased heart rates and ruined moods. Those fragile little egos have been dented enough already by having to read all those non-approved sources, news feeds and factoids from people whose perspective and thinking process don't necessarily 99 percent overlap with aforementioned internet jockeys of Truth. Horrible. You have been warned!


Hama governate. During the last 48 hours there has been strong Russian AF activity in Northern Hama and Southern Idlib (Morek - Khan Sheikhoun axis). It suggested the softening up of enemy positions before a push into this area by the 25th/ Tiger Forces beefed up by the (allegedly) thousands of Afghan (Fatemiyoun Brigade) and Iraqi (Badr Brigade, Kataib Hezbollah, Asaib al Haqq, Imam Ali Brigade) irregulars that have been pouring in from Iraq.

However, the opposite happened. After a 24 hour breather HTS+allies have started advancing again. Souran and Halfaya were brought under HTS control. Imam Taiyeb most likely too, although video evidence is still missing. On Hama City's eastern flank HTS+allies took control over several smaller villages that make an outflanking push likely. In the Western al Ghab plain - directly adjacent to the hills of Latakia HTS+allies advanced towards Qalaat al Mudiq and took the area north of it.

View attachment 15031







In short, HTS+allies have hit the loyalist Suqailabiyah-Mhardeh-Qomhane line and they have kept the momentum going. On Hama City's eastern flank HTS+allies have advanced beyond that. The next 48 hours will be crucial. If HTS+allies manage to advance into Hama City that would be very, very bad news.

Aleppo Governate: The Turkish backed SNA has successfully concluded its Dawn of Freedom operation. The town of Tall Rifaat and the surrounding countryside have been brought under SNA+allies control. After the fall of Tell Rifaat the SNA and SDF struck a deal wherein thousands of SDF fighters and Kurdish civilians were granted permission to be transported to the SDF held areas further east in the infamous green buses. The SNA and allies are currently conducting combing operations in the vast tunnel system the SDF built under the city.

Some of the tunnels allegedly ran for kilometers linking cities and towns underground.



As a result of the surrender of the Tell Rifaat pocket the M5 Highway leading from Aleppo into Turkey is now secured.



In Eastern Aleppo the SNA and Sharqiya al Sham made a public announcement that they would start targetting SDF held Manbij and surrounding countryside - ergo the SDF held area East of the Euphrates. So far only minor skirmishes in the border areas have occurred.

View attachment 15033

Similar threats have been ushered by Turkey and proxies in the past but were always rebuffed by the USA. The SDF continues to be the US' main project in Syria.



Deir Ezzor Governate: after days of uncertainty, rumours about an SDF offensive versus the SAA garrison stationed across the Euphrates river are getting stronger. It is likely the SDF will launch a limited attack on these settlements in the next 24-48 hours or so.

The goal is to take over the beachhead established by the SAA on the Eastern flank of the Euphrates. This happened in 2017 in the wake of ISIS collapse. The operation has been named 'Operation Return'. So far news about this operation is scarce.

EDIT: Operation Return has begun. Notice on the map the settlement of Khusham, this is where Wagner+SAA and US forces went toe to toe after the former tried to take hold of the Conoco Oilfields. This was in 2018.

View attachment 15032





In addition, reports of US bombing/strafing runs on IRGC/Iraqi militia convoys passing through the landbridge have increased in number. Allegedly the bombing runs took place near Al Mayadeen. So far no video evidence or official statements yet hence this too might be an internet induced phantom event.

In supply lines related news Israel turned back an Iranian cargo flight destined to land at Latakia AB.

View attachment 15021
Click to expand...

I've seen rumblings regarding an Russian exodus of ships fleeing Tartus. Have you heard anything similar?
 
LaAguilaNegra said:
HTS has released a communique coupled with propaganda push to frame itself as the rightful and genuine protector of religious minorities in the newly acquired territories. This comes in the wake of a diplomatic outreach to Russia, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the majority pseudo commie SDF.

View attachment 15011





First Mass in HTS held Aleppo

View attachment 15013View attachment 15014View attachment 15015

Many won't trust them and rightfully so. To put it bluntly, they are full of sh*t and obviously hiding their true colors in an effort to gain international recognition/support. But then it does beg the question why the same superduper sharp nooooticers online (unless it touches on anything ((Russia)) or ((international communitism)) related) swallow similar cheap and easily disproven propaganda campaigns from a slightly different Islamic flavor just across the border hook line and sinker without a speck of critical thinking.

Hezbollah, which for some reason got turned into the turdworldist posterchild, has by far been the most influential factor in breaking the Christian powerhold on Lebanon. Turning a constitutionally Christian dominated country - the only one in the Middle East, with a 50+ percent Christian population, into an Islamic Khomeinist holdout and (failed) proxy outpost of Twelver Shia imperialism. In under 30 years of Hezbollah the original Christian Lebanese have gone from kingmaker to becoming politically marginalized and intimidated, and have in numbers dwindled to barely 30 percent of the population.

What HTS is trying to achieve is what Hezbollah pulled of 20-30 years ago, and the Taliban 2-3 years ago. A wolf in sheeps clothing but with similar goals and objectives - yet veiled from the greater public. Creating an Islamic State in Lebanon. Hezbollah hides behind a razor thin veneer like HTS is trying to create now.

Nasrallah has been very clear in the past on his goals. Turning Lebanon into an Islamic State under the auspices of Iran. Christians will simply have to get used to their second class citizen status in the country that was once designed for them and them alone.



The reality is crystal clear to anyone who doesn't voluntarily confine himself to turdworldist fanboy channels for information. In modern Lebanon, whenever nationalist Christians stand up for themselves, Hezbollah immediately rushes in to intimidate and beat them into submission. The Christian-Islamic Brotherhood narrative is only for the non-sensically barking, disgruntled, painfully uninformed and easily played hillbillies in rural Kentucky and the likes. In Lebanon it's straight up Islamic supremacy and anyone who doesn't agree with that gets a halal jackboot in his neck.

Plenty of examples, like the Tayouneh incident. Here an armed Hezbollah crowd marched on the Christian district of Tayouneh to intimidate judge Bitar into giving up his inquiry into the 2020 Beirut blast. During the march vandalism, assaults and sectarian slogans were a dime a dozen. In the wake of that violence Christian militia members took the decision to defend their neighborhood. As the mob got close to the Courthouse Lebanese Forces militia snipers positioned around the area opened fire killing 7 Hezbollah members.



At that time a new civil war seemed right around the corner. The right wing Christian factions would have been obliterated if that had happened - but it were the Iranians (in turn threatened by the US) that told Hezbollah to back off. This is the reality of Christians in Lebanon, it's either oppression or (the treat of) violence.
Click to expand...

LaAguilaNegra said:
HTS has released a communique coupled with propaganda push to frame itself as the rightful and genuine protector of religious minorities in the newly acquired territories. This comes in the wake of a diplomatic outreach to Russia, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the majority pseudo commie SDF.

View attachment 15011





First Mass in HTS held Aleppo

View attachment 15013View attachment 15014View attachment 15015

Many won't trust them and rightfully so. To put it bluntly, they are full of sh*t and obviously hiding their true colors in an effort to gain international recognition/support. But then it does beg the question why the same superduper sharp nooooticers online (unless it touches on anything ((Russia)) or ((international communitism)) related) swallow similar cheap and easily disproven propaganda campaigns from a slightly different Islamic flavor just across the border hook line and sinker without a speck of critical thinking.

Hezbollah, which for some reason got turned into the turdworldist posterchild, has by far been the most influential factor in breaking the Christian powerhold on Lebanon. Turning a constitutionally Christian dominated country - the only one in the Middle East, with a 50+ percent Christian population, into an Islamic Khomeinist holdout and (failed) proxy outpost of Twelver Shia imperialism. In under 30 years of Hezbollah the original Christian Lebanese have gone from kingmaker to becoming politically marginalized and intimidated, and have in numbers dwindled to barely 30 percent of the population.

What HTS is trying to achieve is what Hezbollah pulled of 20-30 years ago, and the Taliban 2-3 years ago. A wolf in sheeps clothing but with similar goals and objectives - yet veiled from the greater public. Creating an Islamic State in Lebanon. Hezbollah hides behind a razor thin veneer like HTS is trying to create now.

Nasrallah has been very clear in the past on his goals. Turning Lebanon into an Islamic State under the auspices of Iran. Christians will simply have to get used to their second class citizen status in the country that was once designed for them and them alone.



The reality is crystal clear to anyone who doesn't voluntarily confine himself to turdworldist fanboy channels for information. In modern Lebanon, whenever nationalist Christians stand up for themselves, Hezbollah immediately rushes in to intimidate and beat them into submission. The Christian-Islamic Brotherhood narrative is only for the non-sensically barking, disgruntled, painfully uninformed and easily played hillbillies in rural Kentucky and the likes. In Lebanon it's straight up Islamic supremacy and anyone who doesn't agree with that gets a halal jackboot in his neck.

Plenty of examples, like the Tayouneh incident. Here an armed Hezbollah crowd marched on the Christian district of Tayouneh to intimidate judge Bitar into giving up his inquiry into the 2020 Beirut blast. During the march vandalism, assaults and sectarian slogans were a dime a dozen. In the wake of that violence Christian militia members took the decision to defend their neighborhood. As the mob got close to the Courthouse Lebanese Forces militia snipers positioned around the area opened fire killing 7 Hezbollah members.



At that time a new civil war seemed right around the corner. The right wing Christian factions would have been obliterated if that had happened - but it were the Iranians (in turn threatened by the US) that told Hezbollah to back off. This is the reality of Christians in Lebanon, it's either oppression or (the treat of) violence.
Click to expand...

Interesting takes. Now show me the intl banking jew in all this. I want to comprehend the grand pic of all these stirred waters.
 
sarmaticus said:
Interesting takes. Now show me the intl banking jew in all this. I want to comprehend the grand pic of all these stirred waters.
Click to expand...

Qatar–Turkey pipeline - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org

We can also thank White Nationalist, Christian warrior Putin for working tirelessly to help realize the ambitious work of Turkey in becoming a Gas hub. One of the few goals of the special military operation that will be achieved.

All the while:


But don’t worry, they’re just as surprised as me.

www.euronews.com

Russia criticises Turkey for supplying arms to Ukraine during conflict

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has questioned Turkey's military support for Ukraine during the conflict, calling it a "surprise".
www.euronews.com www.euronews.com
 
Update day #8

Hama governate: HTS+allies continue their advance. All settlements north of Hama fell to HTS - with the exception of Qomhane. HTS+allies are trying to pincer Hama City by surrounding it from both the Western and Eastern flank.

Map is outdated, geolocated video footage confirms HTS+allies near Almubarakat

IMG_20241204_221345_142.jpg

The elite Republican Guard 4th Division, stationed around Damascus is relocating to Hama.



During their advance northeast of Hama HTS+allies overran several army bases, most notably the joint Russian-25th SF HQs near the Military School and the Suruj Army base. Per usual none of the vehicles and equipment unable to evacuate was destroyed or disabled. Most valuable prize: an S-300-S-400 radar installation.





The Suruj base.



In the Al Ghab plains of Western Hama governate HTS positions around Qalaat al Mudiq were consolidated despite yet another internet only counteroffensive. Further northwards HTS took over few dozen hamlets and villages. In Eastern Hama governate HTS started moving on Salamiyah and the Hama Raqqa road.


Deir Ezzor governate. Yesterday's Operation Return was concluded with the seizure of the 7 villages mentioned. The US AF was particularly active, as were US army units providing artillery support. CENTCOM statement confirmed this through a statement in which it confirmed the destruction of three MLRS, one T64 tank, an APC and mortar firing positions. Gd9VJAaWwAEl01M.png

Aleppo Governate. In Eastern Aleppo governate the SNA+allies took over the water pumping station near Al Jibril on the banks of the Euphrates. Their next move will be moving down the Euphrates River towards Maskanah. Gd8_fcsWkAAy-hT.jpeg

In Southern Aleppo SAA suffered several defeats in recent days. The losses are only now becoming obvious. In many cases vehicles were abandoned and soldiers fled. Overall more than 200 tanks have been lost by the SAA, which amounts to 15-20 percent of its tank force.

On the Al Safira-Khanasser road dozens of vehicles were abandoned. In the frame are at least 3 T90 tanks.



At Kuweires AB 9 operational L39s were seized, in addition to APCs, artillery pieces and more.



At Neirab AB tens of airframes were seized. Most are not operational



In that same area 100+ SAA surrendered.



Two Smerch MLRS seized

https://x.com/NuansHaber1/status/1864308687340490907

Tanks in Hama governate

https://x.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1863871116504072211

In Aleppo City tension between HTS+allies and SNA+allies is flaring. The latter seems to be comprised of mostly criminals, whilst the former are religious hardliners. SNA elements have been accused of looting in HTS areas which has made them come into conflict with HTS. Some caught SNA members were imprisoned, others were beaten.

Conflict seems unavoidable. Turkey will without a speck of a doubt side with the SNA when that happens
 
Update day #8.

Hama governate. The SAA has withdrawn from Hama. During the day HTS+allies forced their way into the eastern outskirts of the city. The risk of encirclement became a real possibility. SAA lines collapsed and the other was given to retreat.

HTS already made it's next target known. Homs. Homs is located 40kms southwards from Hama. After Homs it's Damascus. After Damascus it's game over.

IMG_20241205_230834_627.jpg



Elsewhere HTS+allies kept the momentum up as well. HTS is advancing on Salamiyah, which is Shia Ismailii town on the edges of the Syrian desert. Rumours of a deal are circulating, as the sect's religious leader the Aga Khan allegedly has promised a handover of power in return for protection. Elsewhere the Greek Orthodox towns of Mhardeh, Sulaiqabiyeh/Seleukia and Kafr Buhum will likely soon fall to HTS






It is by now clear that in the last 5 years the SAA has been rotting away whilst its enemies were building up combat capabilities. Not sure what exactly happened aside from massive levels of corruption and nepotism, but many speak about morale and combat readiness getting sapped through structurally underpaying service members, an ineffective C&C structure, complacency through idiocracy/nepotism and a demobilisation order given in 2022-2023. The rot is everywhere. Syria's elite Tiger Forces got routed in three days despite defending favorable terrain and having the RuAF and SAAAF to back it up. That would have never have happened in the 2010s

The loss of Hama is a gigantic morale tanker - and morale was already low. Uncomfortable truth: the SAA will most probably not be able to stop HTS+allies on its own hence expect a foreign power play to begin. Who will court Assad? Yet any actor that wishes to act should act fast because HTS+allies are going to be at Homs' gates in at best a couple of days.

In that light, the Iraqi President al Sudani has warned Erdogan against destabilizing the region. Other channels spoke about the Iraqi parliament authorizing the Iraqi Army to intervene, but so far no official sources corroborates this. Iraq is unlikely to do make a move anyway for several reasons.



One has to ask where Iran is in all of this. Their 40 year old Axis of Resistance project is getting dismantled in record pace but they just keep pulling their turd back in. Hamas is getting destroyed and won't have a political future in Gaza, Hezbollah got crippled and had to sign a new rather unbenefial status quo into reality and Assad has his head on the chopping block.

Not sure what's going on there, but it has nothing to do with 'strategic patience' and the 9D chess monstermoves of simply sitting in the corner not participating/ maneuvering in any dynamics because the strategy is to simply outlast Great Satan by doing nothing - as many have suggested in this thread. Instead it smells more like a sellout aka stab in the back coupled with some sort of backdoor deal, or a fundamental weakness finally getting exposed.
 
Update day #9

Homs Governate: after the fall of Hama yesterday HTS+allies immediately pressed on for Homs. Rastan fell within hours. The Russian AF bombed strategic bridges over the Orontes River to slow the advance down. It didn't help, partisans in Talbiseh - historically an area with lots of rebel activity took over the city. Later they were joined by the HTS+allies vanguard. HTS+ allies are currently within a kilometer from the city outskirts.



Daraa governate. Rebels of whatever kind have ejected the SAA in several towns and cities in the southern province of Daraa. These are without exception cities that participated in the Russian orchestrated reconciliation efforts (as opposed to the green buses in the North).

Difficult to get a good view right now, but several of the bigger cities including Daraa City are revolting.



Deir Ezzor+ Raqqa governate. The SAA has started vacating areas alongside the Euphrates, and the SDF is moving in. The towns of Resafa and Maadan were taken over without a fight



Palmyra area/ Syrian desert: ISIS tried to exploit crumbling central government authority by making a move on the oil wells near Badiyah, reports of an attack on the desert town of Sukhna as well.




Still very little clarity on the diplomatic front, other than that talks in the Iran, Turkey and Russia Astana format were had, and that there is a flurry of statements from all sides without much action on the ground (aka beefing up the failing SAA).

Only thing of importance: Assad has cancelled a request for a meeting with the Arab League leaders.

 

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Update day #10

SAA vacated the entire area along the Euphrates an pulled forces towards Damascus, SDF moved in most areas, local Arab tribes took over elsewhere. FSA rebels made a move from US controlled Al Tanf territory towards the desert city of Palmyra. In the South SAA vacated from most of Quneitra, Suwayda and Daraa, break down of authority now reported in areas only a couple of kilometers from Damascus, in Homs the SAA is putting up somewhat of a fight against HTS+allies.IMG_20241207_214417_655.jpg

Statues of the Assad family getting topples less than 10kms from the Presidential Palace on Mount Qassioun. Druze flags can be seen.



In the North the SNA started an offensive against the SDF - called Dawn of Freedom. The Turkish military is supporting through direct artillery fire.

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In the diplomatic arena there are still talks in the Astana framework. Astana countries allegedly agreed on direct negotiations to achieve political transition and form a transitional governing body - whatever that means as clearly Russia lost mosb and Iran just all leverage they had.

According to the WSJ Assad's family has left for Russia and the UAE.

 
Is the rebel alliance of Russia, Iran and China going to provide any kind of explanation for anything that has been happening to us faithful white pillers?

I’m guessing that’s a no.

Anyway enjoy your jihadis Putin, they’re ready to come home now and recruit from the 40 million migrant pool you got over there. Maybe you should ban cigarettes for people born after 2010 or something. That should help.

I would say the same about China but they seem to be doing a good job with their native ethnics.
 
Damascus has fallen. The Assad regime is finished. Reports that Assad's aircraft was shot down as he was attempting to flee. Israel supposedly conducting ground operations in Syria. The speed in which all this has happened is very surprising.
 
WaveMechanic said:
Damascus has fallen. The Assad regime is finished. Reports that Assad's aircraft was shot down as he was attempting to flee. Israel supposedly conducting ground operations in Syria. The speed in which all this has happened is very surprising.
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Source please
 
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