Update day #7
The situation on the battlefield continues to deteriorate for the SAA. Therefor I suggest that Coopy and ilk close their sensitive little eyes and scroll down real hard from this point onward. Failure to do so can lead to physical discomfort, increased heart rates and ruined moods. Those fragile little egos have been dented enough already by having to read all those non-approved sources, news feeds and factoids from people whose perspective and thinking process don't necessarily 99 percent overlap with aforementioned internet jockeys of Truth. Horrible. You have been warned!
Hama governate. During the last 48 hours there has been strong Russian AF activity in Northern Hama and Southern Idlib (Morek - Khan Sheikhoun axis). It suggested the softening up of enemy positions before a push into this area by the 25th/ Tiger Forces beefed up by the (allegedly) thousands of Afghan (Fatemiyoun Brigade) and Iraqi (Badr Brigade, Kataib Hezbollah, Asaib al Haqq, Imam Ali Brigade) irregulars that have been pouring in from Iraq.
However, the opposite happened. After a 24 hour breather HTS+allies have started advancing again. Souran and Halfaya were brought under HTS control. Imam Taiyeb most likely too, although video evidence is still missing. On Hama City's eastern flank HTS+allies took control over several smaller villages that make an outflanking push likely. In the Western al Ghab plain - directly adjacent to the hills of Latakia HTS+allies advanced towards Qalaat al Mudiq and took the area north of it.
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In short, HTS+allies have hit the loyalist Suqailabiyah-Mhardeh-Qomhane line and they have kept the momentum going. On Hama City's eastern flank HTS+allies have advanced beyond that. The next 48 hours will be crucial. If HTS+allies manage to advance into Hama City that would be very, very bad news.
Aleppo Governate: The Turkish backed SNA has successfully concluded its Dawn of Freedom operation. The town of Tall Rifaat and the surrounding countryside have been brought under SNA+allies control. After the fall of Tell Rifaat the SNA and SDF struck a deal wherein thousands of SDF fighters and Kurdish civilians were granted permission to be transported to the SDF held areas further east in the infamous green buses. The SNA and allies are currently conducting combing operations in the vast tunnel system the SDF built under the city.
Some of the tunnels allegedly ran for kilometers linking cities and towns underground.
As a result of the surrender of the Tell Rifaat pocket the M5 Highway leading from Aleppo into Turkey is now secured.
In Eastern Aleppo the SNA and Sharqiya al Sham made a public announcement that they would start targetting SDF held Manbij and surrounding countryside - ergo the SDF held area East of the Euphrates. So far only minor skirmishes in the border areas have occurred.
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Similar threats have been ushered by Turkey and proxies in the past but were always rebuffed by the USA. The SDF continues to be the US' main project in Syria.
Deir Ezzor Governate: after days of uncertainty, rumours about an SDF offensive versus the SAA garrison stationed across the Euphrates river are getting stronger. It is likely the SDF will launch a limited attack on these settlements in the next 24-48 hours or so.
The goal is to take over the beachhead established by the SAA on the Eastern flank of the Euphrates. This happened in 2017 in the wake of ISIS collapse. The operation has been named 'Operation Return'. So far news about this operation is scarce.
EDIT: Operation Return has begun. Notice on the map the settlement of Khusham, this is where Wagner+SAA and US forces went toe to toe after the former tried to take hold of the Conoco Oilfields. This was in 2018.
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In addition, reports of US bombing/strafing runs on IRGC/Iraqi militia convoys passing through the landbridge have increased in number. Allegedly the bombing runs took place near Al Mayadeen. So far no video evidence or official statements yet hence this too might be an internet induced phantom event.
In supply lines related news Israel turned back an Iranian cargo flight destined to land at Latakia AB.
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