The new interim Prime Minister of Syria is Mohammed al Bashiri. Al Bashiri is close to al Jolani's circle, and was part of one of the governing bodies in the
National Salvation Government of HTS controlled Idlib prior to November 27. He has degrees in Shariah Law and engineering and used to work at oil rigs before the war. Al Bashiri will be Prime Minister until his term ends on March 1, 2025.
Any hopes about peaceful coexistence are fading fast. Yesterday Jolani held a speech at the historic Ummayid Mosque in Damascus, and his vision is one of Syria under Islamic law. Minorities will be tolerated but under shariah law.
The 100 000 HTS+ allies or so fighters are currently chimping out everywhere. In the last 24 hours I've seen videos of Assad's cousin getting strung up and hung from a crane, minority villages getting ransacked and villagers killed in rural Homs, Alawis killed on the streets in Latakia, SAA captives getting executed in rural Palmyra and a famous scientist capped in Damascus - although the latter could be Israel as well. This is the stuff that gets recorded and uploaded, so the real situation is probably ten times worse.
Part of Jolani's speech.
An example of the new reality. Even though Jolani made let it explicitly known that his fighters should not (yet) impose Islamic morals on Syria's inhabitants, they have started anyway. This actress was stopped and told that from hereon she could not go out without a male chaperone (family member or husband per Islamic law) anymore.
In the North the war is intensifying. Erdogan is hellbent on destroying the SDF which is in essence the PKK rebranded. A future Syria will need to take over SDF territory as the latter controls the water, wheat basket and oil wells of Syria.
Erdo's aggressive campaigns will undoubtedly put him in crosshairs with the USA. In prior years Washington was always able to make Turkey back off, but this time it's different. The areas West of the Euphrates are gone already, those East are on the menu
After several days of heavy fighting Manbij was vacated by the SDF. Rumours are that the US manufactured a handover after the SNA captured the Northern bridge over the Euphrates.
On the Kobani axis at least 20+ Turkish airstrikes were reported on Qara Qozak settlement. Along the entire strip Turkish artillery strikes are taking place. An SNA offensive in this area is expected soon. The primary goal will be connecting Tell Abyad with Jarabulus
Here too many war crimes have been recorded in the last 24 hours - especially by the Turkish backed SNA. Executions of captured enemy fighters, execution of wounded enemy fighters in hospitals etc.
Further west alongside the Euphrates the Arab tribal miltias are gaining in strength in the power vacuum that was left by the vacating SAA. Many are allegedly ideologically close to HTS, which wouldn't be surprising as this was IS heartland and in general a conservative tribal part of Syria. The SDF made a move on many Arab towns and cities on the West Bank of the Euphrates but was not welcome. Situation is currently not clear. There are demonstrations against the SDF and the SDF is using live fire to disperse (armed) protestors killing plenty
Israel has launched about 350 air strikes on Syria so far. The goal of these airstrikes is demilitarizing Syria and by extension creating a hobbled, militarily and strategically impotent state on Israel's border. After today Syria has zero power projection and deterrence. The attacks targeted military R&D sites, advanced hardware, repair facilities, key military infrastructure, radar installations and so on. In short, Syria doesn't have a Navy, airforce, and air defences anymore. Rebuilding Syria's military will take at least a decade.
On the Quneitra front Israel's advances are unclear. Reports of further advances, yet no video evidence to back it up. The IDF did however communicate an evacuation order for the town of Al Harrah, meaning that they will soon move in.
It is my conviction that the Israelis are trying to set up a Druze controlled buffer zone on Israel's border. The Druze are in general not hostile to Israel, and Katz the other day mentioned that Shin Bet had been in contact with Druze representatives in Syria for some time. A Druze fiefdom would supplement the Kurdish (SDF) controlled areas of Syria, another minority controlled entity Israel is openly friendly with.
As can be seen above, Israel is currently taking settlements in Druze inhabited areas. The Druze around Jebel Suwayda further East could be included too. Netanyahu has a staunch ally in Sheikh Mowafaq Tarif, who is a Israeli Druze but can use his influence to get the Syrian Druze on board.
There is a lot of talk on potential HTS - Israel collision. Reason being that so far the Israeli incursion has not yet been properly addressed by HTS leadership, and that the Israelis have yet to encounter serious/any resistance.
The future will have to show if this is true. If the IDF will cruise into Suwayda or wherever else unopposed there is a deal behind the curtains. If HTS starts sending waves of SVBIEDs into IDF tank columns there isn't. And it has to be mentioned that Bashar, despite his AoR role, never militarily contested Israeli occupation of the Golan either, nor did the SAA fire a single bullet back over the border in return for the 600+ air attacks in the last 5 years or so. Trying to down incoming missiles was a far as he was willing to go.
HTS grunts claiming they want to liberate Jerusalem and Mekka. IDF is a short car ride away, so the window of opportunity has opened.
On the diplomatic front Turkey and Israel continue to throw punches. Yet it could be staged as well - as in you get the North, we the South and let's throw in some kabuki theater for the masses.
Israeli Foreign Minister Saar tells Turkey to stop targeting Kurds/SDF
US-based think tank head says failure to support Kurds is 'a major mistake'
allisrael.com
Turkish government officials tell Israel to stop targeting Syria