The Iran and Wider Middle East Thread

[Aldebaran]

I lean towards 2...but could be off.

Bibi isn't in as strong or a position as he postulates as we've seen with tons of unrest in Israel.... And the Hezbollah crowd is always going to press the envelope.

Are you serious? Of course it's Israel that will reneg on the deal. We are talking about the most devious liars on the planet here. As soon as the Hezbollah forces are withdrawn, Israel will make up some trivial excuse about how their terms hasn't been met and that they will pull out of the deal.

And why wouldn't they? Netanyahu knows that he can do literally whatever he wants, and still have full backing from the US. Maybe US forces will even help them maintain the occupation of southern Lebanon. Maybe they'll even annex it outright. Nothing is off the table here.

 

[LaAguilaNegra]

Update on the situation in Aleppo.

The attack is much bigger than previously assumed. At least two axis (and possibly three) have been activated by HTS. Other factions have joined the fighting, including the Turkish backed SNA.

Per usual there is a flurry of information coming out - some no doubt false. Turkish artillery is targeting SAA positions in Western Aleppo. At least one Russian SF/Wagner merc has been killed on the frontlife. Broad mobilization of forces happening in Idlib. SAA is sending reinforcements to the area. Russian and Syrian AF are active.

The Western Aleppo frontline has cracked open on several axis and needs urgent plugging. Latest reports indicate HTS+allies is at 9-11km from the outskirts of Aleppo, possibly closer.

Maps of the confirmed rebel advance.



Pro rebel sources say the offensive has been prepared for over a year in secrecy



From Aleppo city smoke and fighting can be heard and seen



Captured by the rebels: an anti drone gun. Many online say this gear is not in use with the SAA and this belonged to Russian SF/Wagner mercs



Looks like the Syrian War is, after a couple of quiet years, is about to intensify again.

 

[PurpleUrkel]

Looks like the Syrian War is, after a couple of quiet years, about to intensify again.

What exactly is this war really about?

 

[LaAguilaNegra]

What exactly is this war really about?

Depends who you ask, and when the question was asked.

On the grand chessboard level, in 2011

* Defanging and possibly replacing Assad, ergo destroying Israel's last hostile neighbor actually capable of doing damage (through both conventional and biological weapons)

* Curtailing Iranian influence by breaking the Shia crescent and cutting the Beirut-Damascus-Baghdad-Tehran landbridge (ergo isolating Hezbollah)

* Curtailing Russia's influence in Europe through weakening the energy interdependence by hooking Europe onto Qatar/Gulf gas through pipelines

* Use the above to play up the Iranian/Shia boogeyman at a time when anti Zionism and anti Americanism ran high due to the Iraq War - ergo scare the living shit out of the Arab population and (re-) establish the need for US protection and Israeli rapprochement in their minds.


There are many other players who have and had their own agendas. The Saudis, Iranians, Turks, Qatari and Emirati all had grand regional ambitions and saw the war in Syria as an opportunity. Most got something out of it. Syria turned from a sovereign nation that functioned on a peer level with Tehran into a dependent on everything Iranian protectorate. The Turks took the North and it's resources. The Russians build up their bases in the big cities and coastal areas. The Israelis had their mortal enemy turn from a strong militarized powerhouse into a failed state with an army resembling a ragtag militia, the Americans moved into the East and build up their proxy in the form of the SDF.


The current offensive is well organized and has been prepared for a long time. The timing couldn't be better. Hezbollah has withdrawn most if not all its forces from Syria, Iran is under pressure and the Russians have something going on in Ukraine. Also important is that the projected Turkish-Syrian peace initiative didn't work out, and that the soft blockade of the Black Sea has made a dent in Russian power projection abilities in the Eastern Mediterranean.


This new offensive has caught the SAA off guard and has momentum. It's hard to say where the rebel vanguard is now but geolocated video footage shows they are making headway. Main objective for Bashar is to find a new line of defense and let the rebel vanguard run out of steam before they reach Aleppo.

 

[LaAguilaNegra]

Day 2 update on the HTS/Al Qaida Western Aleppo offensive.

The offensive is having success and momentum is building. A large number of villages and towns have fallen, and based on preliminary reports the rebels are only a few kilometers away from reaching the western outskirts of Aleppo. The M5 highway linking Aleppo to Hama/Damascus has been cut at at least 2-3 different places. A separate axis was opened near Saraqib.

Situation is changing fast, a relatively recent map

Livemap:

Map of Syrian Civil War - Syria news and incidents today - syria.liveuamap.com

Explore Syrian Civil War news on live map in English. Civil war and International intervention in Syria. War on terrorism in Syria

syria.liveuamap.com

In separate news Iranian news agencies mourned the death of IRGC Brigadier General Kiomars Pourashemi. He was killed in Western Aleppo. Earlier in the day the news of the death of one SAA general and two colonels became known



Turkish government tied news agency declared the goal of the offensive - returning to the 2019 status quo as agreed in the Astana Accords.



Lots of gore videos doing the rounds, rebels have captured a significant amount of vehicles, ATGM stockpiles, etc.

 

[LaAguilaNegra]

Day 3 update.

The situation is going from bad to critical. HTS+allies have reached the Western outskirts of Aleppo and the first skirmishes in the al Rashidin and New Aleppo neighborhoods have been reported. Likewise HTS+allies are moving beyond the M5 highway into Aleppo's Southern countryside.

No serious line of defence or counterattack has been organized so far. Reports of an SAA counter offensive proved fantastical and restricted to the social media spheres - it happened only on the internet. In addition news that the 25th/ Tiger Forces under Suhail have been relocated to Aleppo have not been confirmed yet.

Map, already outdated but makes a good comparison.



Livemap

Map of Syrian Civil War - Syria news and incidents today - syria.liveuamap.com

Explore Syrian Civil War news on live map in English. Civil war and International intervention in Syria. War on terrorism in Syria

syria.liveuamap.com

Simultaneously the Turkish backed SNA + Turkish military started shelling SDF held areas in Northern Aleppo/Mare. The Russian AF targeted SNA bases in response. So far the SNA has not made a move yet




HTS+allies on the edges of Aleppo.



Lots of bounty again due to fleeing SAA troops

 

[Cooper]

More sober analysis from sources that aren't funded by NATO, unlike some of the sources posted above by AguilaNegra/forabettertomorrow:



US-backed Terrorist Offensive in Syria
This would have required months of planning and preparations including logistics support running through NATO territory (Turkiye) facilitated by the US CIA and special forces as has been the case since 2011 and earlier;

This is part of a larger global campaign to increase pressure along Russia's (and Iran's) periphery along with chaos in Georgia, continued proxy war in Ukraine, talk of NATO intervention, the use of NATO missiles on Russian territory, etc.;

The goal is to continue extending Russia and its allies to the breaking point with the US unable to decisively defeat Russia in any one of the areas of focus the US is destabilizing and destroying; If successful in any or all of these areas, the US will have successfully isolated China which will be targeted next;

In the process the West is expending military resources it will find difficult to replace; There are questions regarding why intelligence did not notice preparations spanning months in occupied northern Syria;

Multipolarism cannot afford to be complacent and certainly cannot afford to fail. The West is clearly determined to do anything to succeed - multipolarism must accept this reality and prepare to do what is necessary to defend itself. The "status quo" is quickly evaporating;




he “moderate rebels” attacked towards Aleppo and came close to the city.

To understand the situation, you need to zoom out and can draw a parallel to the Kursk offensive.

The anti government rebels, prepared and planned an attack (with western help, Turkey admitted to that). To do this, they concentrated many forces, much equipment, pulled in drone units and were able to strike in surprise.

This means, Assad’s forces were essentially “caught with their pants down” and had to retreat.

But, as with the Kursk offensive it slowly gets bogged down and stops, then they start to push it back. Because the government forces have air and artillery superiority, that can’t go any other way. Simple.That’s the second day of the offensive, so it still moves forward but starts to slow down. Tomorrow or the day after, it stops.

Just from the military perspective it can’t go on any other way, unless they have a huge overwhelming force and air defense … which they don’t.

 

[Cooper]

The China angle is interesting, because a large part of the moderate headchopper coalition there is made up of Chinese Uyghurs, mixed in with mercs from muslim former Soviet countries and Caucasus (Chechens). China should do something about its jihadi trash that is now threatening the large Christian population of Aleppo.

Kevork Almassian, a Syrian Armenian from Aleppo, has made an excellent rundown of the situation:

 

[LaAguilaNegra]

More sober analysis from sources that aren't funded by NATO, like the ones posted above by AguilaNegra/forabettertomorrow:



US-backed Terrorist Offensive in Syria
This would have required months of planning and preparations including logistics support running through NATO territory (Turkiye) facilitated by the US CIA and special forces as has been the case since 2011 and earlier;

This is part of a larger global campaign to increase pressure along Russia's (and Iran's) periphery along with chaos in Georgia, continued proxy war in Ukraine, talk of NATO intervention, the use of NATO missiles on Russian territory, etc.;

The goal is to continue extending Russia and its allies to the breaking point with the US unable to decisively defeat Russia in any one of the areas of focus the US is destabilizing and destroying; If successful in any or all of these areas, the US will have successfully isolated China which will be targeted next;

In the process the West is expending military resources it will find difficult to replace; There are questions regarding why intelligence did not notice preparations spanning months in occupied northern Syria;

Multipolarism cannot afford to be complacent and certainly cannot afford to fail. The West is clearly determined to do anything to succeed - multipolarism must accept this reality and prepare to do what is necessary to defend itself. The "status quo" is quickly evaporating;




he “moderate rebels” attacked towards Aleppo and came close to the city.

To understand the situation, you need to zoom out and can draw a parallel to the Kursk offensive.

The anti government rebels, prepared and planned an attack (with western help, Turkey admitted to that). To do this, they concentrated many forces, much equipment, pulled in drone units and were able to strike in surprise.

This means, Assad’s forces were essentially “caught with their pants down” and had to retreat.

But, as with the Kursk offensive it slowly gets bogged down and stops, then they start to push it back. Because the government forces have air and artillery superiority, that can’t go any other way. Simple.That’s the second day of the offensive, so it still moves forward but starts to slow down. Tomorrow or the day after, it stops.

Just from the military perspective it can’t go on any other way, unless they have a huge overwhelming force and air defense … which they don’t.

Good to see you again Lil Coop, noticed you got a little quiet after Hezbollah signed a de facto capitulation agreement even though you'd been promising the parish the end of Israel and whatnot.

Luckily enough another opportunity has opened up to make a clown out of yourself. Whilst you where typing up a wall of cope drawing whacko parallels to Russia now being the world's best military on Russian soil using nothing but empty buzzwords, antiquated faux narratives and faulty logic, the SAA lines collapsed in Aleppo.

HTS+allies are in the city center.

I sincerely suggest you take a step back and stop behaving like a cheap second rate propaganda outlet . You're not good at it hurts your standing.

 

[LaAguilaNegra]

The China angle is interesting, because a large part of the moderate headchopper coalition there is made up of Chinese Uyghurs, mixed in with mercs from muslim former Soviet countries and Caucasus (Chechens). China should do something about its jihadi trash that is now threatening the large Christian population of Aleppo.

Kevork Almassian, a Syrian Armenian from Aleppo, has made an excellent rundown of the situation:

You forgot to add that Almassian lives in Germany, and that he was the main propagandist behind yesterday's SAA e-counteroffensive in Western Aleppo - the one that only happened in Almassian's head and on the internet.



In short he's yet another professional liar in the business of bamboozling his cognitively challenged audience by keeping a constant flow of either partly or entirely manufactured feel good news flowing.

 

[Cooper]

Good to see you again Lil Coop, I noticed you got a little quiet after Hezbollah signed a de facto capitulation agreement even though you'd been promising the parish the end of Israel and whatnot.

Luckily enough another opportunity has opened up to make a clown out of yourself. Whilst you where typing up a wall of cope drawing whacko parallels to Russia now being the world's best military on Russian soil using nothing but empty buzzwords, antiquated faux narratives and faulty logic, the SAA abandoned Aleppo.

HTS+allies are in the city center.

I sincerely suggest you take a step back and stop behaving like a cheap second rate propaganda outlet . You're not good at it hurts your standing.

Nothing I could do can top the weirdness of your "forabettertomorrow" fake Russian handle schtick, it kind of shows a lack of character and the length you would go to dishonestly push your anti-Russian narrative.

As to the NATO-funded jihadi mercs you seem to be rooting for, they will be pushed back in due time. In the meanwhile, they are accomplishing their mission of destroying Syria, now targeting the largest Christian community in the Levant outside of Lebanon.

 

[Labienus]

According to Rybar the Russian general staff is working on a reaction to what is happening in Syria and is likely to send reinforcement.

Russia is going to have to finish the job there once and for all since the Syrian Arab army is clearly incapable of destroying these terrorist groups on its own.

 

[LaAguilaNegra]

Nothing I could do can top the weirdness of your "forabettertomorrow" fake Russian handle schtick, it kind of shows a lack of character and the length you would go to dishonestly push your anti-Russian narrative.

As to the NATO-funded jihadi mercs you seem to be rooting for, they will be pushed back in due time. In the meanwhile, they are accomplishing their mission of destroying Syria, now targeting the largest Christian community in the Levant outside of Lebanon.

You're losing it Coop. This is what mindlessly fanboying for turdworld dictators in far away countries basing your worldview on one sided paid propagandists always leads to: meltdowns, chimpouts and broken worldviews.

As for the constant insinuations and slander, it speaks values about your moral character or better said lack thereof.

Assad is the lesser of two evils in Syria and nothing more. I personally admire his bravery (stayed in the Presidential Palace on Mount Qasioun when headchoppers were at best 1.5 km away) and genuinity but am definitely not blind to his trackrecord. Because let's not forget that it was Assad Sr. who broke the Christian powerhold on Lebanon through military intervention and consequent support for Hezb/Amal, that it was Bashar who pro bono ran the main ratline into Iraq post 2003 (funneling tens of thousands of headchoppers into the country)- many of whom blew themselves up in the few Chaldean Churches left, and that it was Bashar who eagerly participated in the CIA black sites program back in the day. Bashar, bytheway, is currently the biggest drug kingpin in the region because about every Captagon/Methamphetamine pill flooding the Middle East countries is produced in Syria under the auspices of Assad - him and his clique are making good money of it.

The lesser of two evils and absolutely nothing more.

 

[LaAguilaNegra]

According to Rybar the Russian general staff is working on a reaction to what is happening in Syria and is likely to send reinforcement.

Russia is going to have to finish the job there once and for all since the Syrian Arab army is clearly incapable of destroying these terrorist groups on its own.

What kind of piss poor milquetoast BS statement is this?



Russia fumbled the ball. Should have gone for the knockout punch in 2019 when the Idlib groups were in the ropes. Instead they just had to make a deal to appease the Turks and work on them. Protip: never appease Turks and work on them, they'll see it as weakness and stab you in the back.

Ironically it were the Russian that held Iran back. Soleimani was ready to finish the job but got a bargaining chip in the Caucasus as a tradeoff.

This has the feeling of Mosul 2014 and could snowball into something much bigger. Most important thing now is to get the elite SAA units to Aleppo to at least create a new defensive line.

Current situation. HTS+allies now also sighted in Asht as Shabaah.



Saraqib now too under HTS+allies control.



EDIT updated map: HTS+allies have reached Central Aleppo. Apparantly less than a kilometer to the famous citadel.

 

[LaAguilaNegra]

Day 3 update #2

Safety warning: hyperfragile and heavily propagandized keyboard jockeys used to dwelling in online hugboxes and rigid echo chambers could experience experience shock and mental/physical discomfort reading the following. Proceed at your own risk.


The SAA defences in Aleppo have completely broken down. It is currently nighttime in the city, yet tons of geolocated videos have emerged. Videos of HTS+allies in the far Eastern districts circulating too, with reports that the SAA has started vacating Aleppo International Airport/Nairab base - which the biggest military base north of Home. Further confirmation will come during daytime.

Latest map, likely outdated



In another big development, the Turkish backed SNA has joined the fighting by initiating an attack on Tadif north of Aleppo



Number of Manpads captured



Large number of people fleeing south



Prisoners getting released in Aleppo





Scenes in Aleppo

 

[Get2choppaaa]

 

[LaAguilaNegra]

Update day 4.

SAA positions in Eastern Idlib and Aleppo governate continue to get overrun. Strategic airbase of Abu Dhuhr was brought under HTS control and the M4 highway cut. HTS+allies have moved into Northern Hama and captured several strategic settlements there too, most notably Khan Sheikhoun and Maraat Numan. Their next goal is the city of Hama

Relatively recent map



In the far North SNA+allies have started making headway towards the Kuweires AB and the Raqqa-Aleppo road.

In the power vacuum created by the collapse of Syrian government positions the SDF/YPG/PKK have started moving towards Aleppo from the North East. Aleppo International AB+ several towns to the East of Aleppo were seized. Reports that the airport and airbase were voluntarily handed over by the SAA.

SDF incursion towards Aleppo airport.







A new SAA line of defence will likely be set up around the Suqlaybiyah, Mhardeh and Qomhane. These three loyalist towns have been the main line of defences during earlier rebel offensives in the 10s. Mhardeh and Suqlaybiyah are majority Christian and home to a serious NDF continent (SAA aligned citizen militia) and Qomhane is one of the main recruiting bases for the elite 25th Brigade, also known as the Tiger Forces.

This map too is outdated. Khan Sheikhoun has been confirmed as HTS+allies held. Preliminary reports that the SAA have abandoned Morek. HTS+allies is currently at less than 35 km away from Hama city.


In the south some settlements that had large scale Russia orchestrated reconciliation efforts a restive atmosphere is brewing.



In Aleppo's central square Bassel al Assad's statue, the late son of Hafez and Bashar & Maher's brother, was torn down.



Not without importance: at the time of speaking Assad is still in Moscow. This visit is a state visit planned many months ago, but optics wise it would be best to return to Damascus.

The Kremlin today came out with a statement that was a little stronger worded than yesterday's by naming Turkey. Needless to say the Astana and Sochi Accords are dead.

 

[Get2choppaaa]

Update day 4.

SAA positions in Eastern Idlib and Aleppo governate continue to get overrun. Strategic airbase of Abu Dhuhr was brought under HTS control and the M4 highway cut. HTS+allies have moved into Northern Hama and captured several strategic settlements there too, most notably Khan Sheikhoun and Maraat Numan. Their next goal is the city of Hama

Relatively recent map

View attachment 14931

In the far North SNA+allies have started making headway towards the Kuweires AB and the Raqqa-Aleppo road.

In the power vacuum created by the collapse of Syrian government positions the SDF/YPG/PKK have started moving towards Aleppo from the North East. Aleppo International AB+ several towns to the East of Aleppo were seized. Reports that the airport and airbase were voluntarily handed over by the SAA.

SDF incursion towards Aleppo airport.

View attachment 14930





A new SAA line of defence will likely be set up around the Suqlaybiyah, Mhardeh and Qomhane. These three loyalist towns have been the main line of defences during earlier rebel offensives in the 10s. Mhardeh and Suqlaybiyah are majority Christian and home to a serious NDF continent (SAA aligned citizen militia) and Qomhane is one of the main recruiting bases for the elite 25th Brigade, also known as the Tiger Forces.

This map too is outdated. Khan Sheikhoun has been confirmed as HTS+allies held. Preliminary reports that the SAA have abandoned Morek. HTS+allies is currently at less than 35 km away from Hama city.
View attachment 14932

In the south some settlements that had large scale Russia orchestrated reconciliation efforts a restive atmosphere is brewing.



In Aleppo's central square Bassel al Assad's statue, the late son of Hafez and Bashar & Maher's brother, was torn down.



Not without importance: at the time of speaking Assad is still in Moscow. This visit is a state visit planned many months ago, but optics wise it would be best to return to Damascus.

The Kremlin today came out with a statement that was a little stronger worded than yesterday's by naming Turkey. Needless to say the Astana and Sochi Accords are dead.

Not sure why anyone thinks they can trust Turkey. Russia and US have both made deals with the devil in placating them at times.

 

[LaAguilaNegra]

Day 4 update #2

The countryside north of Hama was ceded to HTS+allies. SAA+allies are indeed preparing a stand on the loyalist Qomhane, Mhardeh and Suqlaybiyah line - like has happened many times before in the 10s.

The force assembling in Qomhane and Hama are the elite 25th/ Tiger Forces coupled with a large number of NDF units from nearby towns and Shia militias.





In Aleppo governate HTS+allies have taken over Al Safira, which was on the road to the last entry line into Aleppo.



Bashar al Assad has returned from Moscow. Will meet with the Iranian FM tomorrow morning.



Several town in Homs and Daraa governate have been taken over by anti Assad cells. These takeovers are still small in numbers but might snowball into some bigger.



Aleppo Airport has been taken by HTS+ allies. The SDF reportedly ceded the airport without a fight. The nearby Neirab military base is still under SDF control



In the East in a bald move the YPG/ SDF/PKK have crossed Euphrates into SAA held territory in Deir Ezzor. Bears reminding that the SDF has been the main US controlled faction in Syria since at least 2015-2016. It is also, aside from al Tanf to the South, the area where the US bases are. Closing the Tehran - Baghdad - Damascus - Beirut landline through the Albukamal bottleneck in the Syrian desert would make a lot of sense.

SDF/YPG/PKK is allegedly moving under US artillery cover

 

[Labienus]

The Russian airforce is now operating nonstop with at least 12 sukhois (Su-34s, Su-30s and SU-24s) and are causing absolute carnage on the terrorists.

Press TV and Iraqi media are reporting that a Russian airstrike just took out the terrorist leader Jolani in Idlib along with other officers. Not 100% confirmed yet, but the Russians are certainly capable of doing that.

This is the airstrike that allegedly took him out.



If the Syrian Arab Army can hold the line in Hama this won't end well for the terrorists. The Russian airforce is much, much more efficient than prior to 2020 and will absolutely wreck the terrorists since they don't have any air defense. This is not Ukraine that has tons of Soviet and NATO air defense.

The Russians will probably completely destroy Idlib.