The Iran and Wider Middle East Thread

Jeremiah 49​

King James Version​


34;The word of the Lord that came to Jeremiah the prophet against Elam in the beginning of the reign of Zedekiah king of Judah, saying,


35;Thus saith the Lord of hosts; Behold, I will break the bow of Elam, the chief of their might.


36;And upon Elam will I bring the four winds from the four quarters of heaven, and will scatter them toward all those winds; and there shall be no nation whither the outcasts of Elam shall not come.


37;For I will cause Elam to be dismayed before their enemies, and before them that seek their life: and I will bring evil upon them, even my fierce anger, saith the Lord; and I will send the sword after them, till I have consumed them:


38;And I will set my throne in Elam, and will destroy from thence the king and the princes, saith the Lord.


39;But it shall come to pass in the latter days, that I will bring again the captivity of Elam, saith the Lord.

I am just curios any interpretations of this especially the bolded part from the Christians here who are familiar with the bible. As you all know I am not a Chrsitian but still interested to here the Christian take on how this relates (if at all) to Iran in the modern day.
 
It is my conviction that the Israelis are trying to set up a Druze controlled buffer zone on Israel's border. The Druze are in general not hostile to Israel, and Katz the other day mentioned that Shin Bet had been in contact with Druze representatives in Syria for some time. A Druze fiefdom would supplement the Kurdish (SDF) controlled areas of Syria, another minority controlled entity Israel is openly friendly with.

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As can be seen above, Israel is currently taking settlements in Druze inhabited areas. The Druze around Jebel Suwayda further East could be included too. Netanyahu has a staunch ally in Sheikh Mowafaq Tarif, who is a Israeli Druze but can use his influence to get the Syrian Druze on board. View attachment 15337

In line with the above Israel is continously reshaping the Syrian security framework by empowering separatist/autonomist entities within the country - the SDF and the Druze Military Council. Sidenote: the town of Jaramana is outside the claimed Druze area of control (al Suweida province) and instead a Damascus suburb a stones throw away from the Ummayid Mosque.
Israel wants a Druze autonomous zone and the entire area south of Damascus turned into DeMilitarized Zone.

The Syrian Druze have long been a covert potential Israeli ally due to their mistrust of both Sunni majority, Alawite minority before that and regional players like Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Aside from hamstringing any future Syrian state - HTS is openly hostile to Israel, it also breaks a potential Turkish domination of Syria by balancing out the internal powerstructure.





The Syrian Transitional Government is currently building up its state institutions and one of the main roadblocks is the integration of all armed factions into a newly formed national military.

This military will be formed, supplied and trained by the Turks. So far there are several groups unwilling to lay down arms. The SNA is involved in own meat grinder versus the SDF east of Manbij, the Druze recently declared their own military council and the SDF needs no explanation.

Area is purple is held by the Southern Operations Room, a group centered around Ahmed al Awda

Al Awda is specifically mention worthy, he is an individual that was once with the SAA, defected to one of the my FSA factions early in the war, eventually joined ISIS, then reconciled with Assad through the Russian mediated reconciliation program, became part of the Russian trained Fifth Legion, and then later on defected again.

He is seen as a very charismatic and competent individual. Was among the first to enter Damascus in December 2024

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Israel is pressuring the US to lobby with HTS to get Russia to keep its Syrian bases. This demand is in spite of HTS already having cancelled the Tartous port deal, and Russian assets in Hmeimim having been relocated to Libya+ Russia with the remaining skeleton crew facing constant threats (despite HTS security guarantees) due to rogue jihadist elements active in the immediate vicinity of the base.

The Israel- Russia cooperation in Syria comes after Israel's open support for Russia in the UNSC, and Israel's military secretary visiting Moscow opening a new chapter in the Israel-Russia friendship. A chapter wherein the deep cooperation and ties will be out in the open, whereas before the strong bond between Netanyahu and Putin was existing (barely) beneath the surface.



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Israel is pressuring the US to lobby with HTS to get Russia to keep its Syrian bases. This demand is in spite of HTS already having cancelled the Tartous port deal, and Russian assets in Hmeimim having been relocated to Libya+ Russia with the remaining skeleton crew facing constant threats (despite HTS security guarantees) due to rogue jihadist elements active in the immediate vicinity of the base.

The Israel- Russia cooperation in Syria comes after Israel's open support for Russia in the UNSC, and Israel's military secretary visiting Moscow opening a new chapter in the Israel-Russia friendship. A chapter wherein the deep cooperation and ties will be out in the open, whereas before the strong bond between Netanyahu and Putin was existing (barely) beneath the surface.



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Excellent reporting on Talmudic conflict. This is full on Zionist vs. Reform Jew right here.
 
Big news from Turkey, imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan has called on the organization to stop fighting and start disarming and disbanding. Statement came as a shock to everyone ergo nobody really knows where to place it and what promises were made, and if promises were made.

Despite Ocalan's leadership position many PKK fighters (and their countless alphabet soup abbreviations in Syria, Iraq and Iran) have vowed to continue fighting, especially because the declaration is one sided and there are no concessions from at least the Turkish side so far.





 

Absolutely savage. Russia doing a classic good cop bad cop routine with the US/Israel to obstruct Tehran from acquiring the one and only deterrent which could guarantee its survival on a long enough timeline. Nukes.

The dust is settling. Russia has been stringing Iran along for decades and the Iranians are aware. Zero trust between the two sides. Tied to Ukraine too. The Su35s and S400s deal were intentionally delayed+sabotaged by the Russians and instead used as a bargaining chip to slow down Western arms deliveries to the Ukrainians. Iranians were never ever gonna get them as it would destroy Israeli air dominance over Iran. All smoke and mirrors but woe the Iranians for being such gullible fools. Now that Minsk 3 is around the corner none of that matters anymore. Never mind the constant Russian double crossing, the intel sharing with Israel, the whole Syria debacle etc. Mask off moment.

Talking about Israel, I don't see Israel mentioned in the tweets above. Which is strange, because US foreign policy on Iran is for a large part structured around Israel's priorities and worries. Quite a change of tone: up until a month ago turdworldist media loved to weaponize public global opinion against the US by associating it with Israeli misbehaviour. But now that Russia enters the picture that vanished overnight. Did I mention Israel already?

Israel. And Russia. And the United States. United on stopping Iran from getting that nuclear deterrent.

Supposedly necessary Russian assistance my rear end. That's a C grade spin from turdworldist media - the US and Iran have been in direct contact for decades and routinely have their envoys privately meeting in Switzerland and Qatar for talks. As if without Putin the Trump Administration won't know what number to dial to get ahold of the turbans, ridiculous spin from ridiculous people.

Iran-Russia relationship will continue but is and was one of convenience. They don't like each other, are ideologically miles apart but need one another due to each's strategic value. Yet the Iranians see Russia as spiritual Soviets, and are fully aware of the massive Chabad connections. Iranian leaderships considers Putin KGB and untrustworthy, they use the word two faced to describe him. Russians have been playing both sides for decades and ultimately without exception side with Israel. There's self-preservation to it. Vice versa the Russians consider Iran's leadership extremist in nature, and they have a problem with its anti Zionism. About a year ago yours truly shared official Russian policy documents which stated that unless Iran would change its position on Israel, the Russia-Iran relationship could not peak. Great content, now buried under a pile of sludge. Sad.


Hardliners in Iran are seething mad. Even more than before. Convinced that Russia backstabbed their man Bashar in a deal with the US, Turks and Israelis. Reformist clique could be involved as well. Turdworldists don't like to talk about this, but I do. Suspicion galore. Million dollar questions: who pulled the plug on Assad?

Some interesting links on it:

Iranian IRGC general accuses Russia of purposely bombing empty desert in Syria



Article centered around quotes from Russian MoD Belousov on the Syria being a tactical withdrawal as it gears up for a direct confrontation with NATO in the next 10 years or so



Fascinating posts made months ago on how Moscow abandoning Syria was done to gain an exit from the Ukraine deadlock.



 
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Absolutely savage. Russia doing a classic good cop bad cop routine with the US/Israel to obstruct Tehran from acquiring the one and only deterrent which could guarantee its survival on a long enough timeline.

Talking about Israel, I don't see Israel mentioned in the tweets above. Which is strange, because US foreign policy on Iran is for a large part structured around Israel's priorities and worries. Quite a change of tone: up until a month ago turdworldist media loved to weaponize public global opinion against the US by associating it with Israeli misbehaviour. But now that Russia enters the picture that vanished overnight. Did I mention Israel already?

Supposedly necessary Russian assistance my rear end. That's a C grade spin from turdworldist media - the US and Iran have been in direct contact for decades and routinely have their envoys privately meeting in Switzerland and Qatar for talks. As if without Putin the Trump Administration won't know what number to dial to get ahold of the turbans, ridiculous spin from ridiculous people.

It doesn't get much clearer than this. Russia has been stringing Iran along for decades and the Iranians are aware. Zero trust between the two sides. Tied to Ukraine too. The Su35s and S400s deal were intentionally delayed+sabotaged by the Russians and instead used as a bargaining chip to slow down Western arms deliveries to the Ukrainians. Iranians were never ever gonna get them as it would destroy Israeli air dominance over Iran. Now that Minsk 3 is around the corner none of that matters anymore. Never mind the constant Russian double crossing, the intel sharing with Israel, the whole Syria debacle etc. Mask off moment.

Iran-Russia relationship will continue but is and was one of convenience. They don't like each other, are ideologically miles apart but need one another due to each's strategic value. Yet the Iranians see Russia as spiritual Soviets, and are fully aware of the massive Chabad connections. Iranian leaderships considers Putin KGB and untrustworthy, they use the word two faced to describe him. Russians have been playing both sides for decades and ultimately without exception side with Israel. There's self-preservation to it. Vice versa the Russians consider Iran's leadership extremist in nature, and they have a problem with its anti Zionism. About a year ago official Russian policy documents were shared which stated that unless Iran would change its position on Israel, the Russia-Iran relationship could not peak. Great content, now buried under a pile of sludge. Sad.

Hardliners in Iran are seething mad. Even more than before. They are sure that Russia backstabbed their man Bashar in a deal with the Turks and Israelis. Reformist clique could be involved as well. Turdworldists don't like to talk about this, but I do. Suspicion galore. Who pulled the plug on Assad?

Some interesting links on it:

Iranian IRGC general accuses Russia of purposely bombing empty desert in Syria



Article centered around quotes from Russian MoD Belousov on the Syria being a tactical withdrawal as it gears up for a direct confrontation with NATO in the next 10 years or so



Fascinating posts made months ago on how Moscow abandoning Syria was done to gain an exit from the Ukraine deadlock.





Why do you have so much insight into Russia while not being Russian?
 
Why do you have so much insight into Russia while not being Russian?
This is a question for the DMs unless you have ulterior motives.

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.
1. Talk to actual Russians and preferably the well educated and critical ones
2. Inform yourself through a wide range of sources/analysis spanning the entire spectrum (aka no echo chambers)
3. Always argue against narratives and and conventional perceptions as to see which arguments hold ground
4. Discard the opinion of the herd.
5. Read books and official internal documents on the matter as those have intellectual depth far beyond superficial online based discourse.
6. Get acquainted with info warfare and propaganda tactics&techniques, makes it much easier to differentiate between BS and legit info.
7. Internalize priorities, modus operandi and historical patterns of actors and agents as nearly all decision making is rooted in past and habit and therefor largely predictable.

As an example of the above there is currently a hype on the US exiting NATO. This is an absolute ridiculous idea, and if you'd be acquainted with RAND reports you'd know that dumping responsibility of Europe unto Europe's arms gets mentioned quite frequently - whilst the US pivots to Asia.

If you'd have followed the confirmation of Trump's cabinet you'd also know that many of his hawkish picks were bipartisan supported. For instance SoS Marco Rubio was confirmed 99-0 in the Senate ergo there is no Deep State ploy here.

If you would be aware of NATOs Charter you'd also know that leaving NATO isn't up to Trump. It's up to the Senate and Congress, and needs a mandatory one year waiting period.

In short the US voluntarily relinquishing it's position in Europe is just not going to happen and it's a hopium sparked buzz about nothing. Instead it's a Russia-US detente tied to movements on the chessboard in Asia and the Middle East. Trump wants to move fast but shitlib Euros and Zelensky got in the way. Hence the constant noise

Bytheway, last US Russian Detente was in 2009, when Lavrov gave Hillary the infamous Reset button (later there were rumours the button was bugged by the Russians). 5 years later Nuland was handing out cookies in Kiev.

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On February 2 Trump ordered several US airstrikes on ISIS positions in Puntland/Somalia. The US occasionally targets al Shabaab/AQ bigwigs in Central Somalia via drones but never this area. The local autonomous Puntland militias are currently undertaking an offensive against ISIS in the mountains but progress is slow. UAE jets have also flown several sorties to support the Puntland forces.



Several US bombing runs in Somalia last week. This time unrelated to Puntland, but in the South of the country. Al Qaida linked al Shabaab has started a new offensive against AMISOM/ Somalian government and is gaining ground.





In other news due to budget slashing by DOGE many of the Somalian army/government institutions units dependent on US money will soon not be able to maintain themselves hence disappear/change sides.

 
Trump is back with yet another ultimatum. The last one was a couple of weeks back, and in the end everybody just stopped talking about it.

The released hostages look too skinny according to T, and this triggers him. Basically another Holocaust. So now he wants to throw the current deal out (which he agreed on just two months ago), speed up the release dates and get Hamas to release the hostages all at once. If not there will be hell to pay.

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T sending Israel everything they need.



Also US arms deals/handovers have picked up in pace tremendously. Current scoreline is over 12 billion USD in weapon shipments

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Bytheway, last US Russian Detente was in 2009, when Lavrov gave Hillary the infamous Reset button (later there were rumours the button was bugged by the Russians). 5 years later Nuland was handing out cookies in Kiev.

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The reset button gizmo was not a gift from Lavrov, it was a gift from the Obama administration to the Russians, who at the time thought it was a weird American gimmick. Perhaps something that your "well-educated and critical Russians" or your "wide range of sources/analysis spanning the entire spectrum" did not help you there...

Your take above on the Russian-Iranian relationship, like many of your takes, lacks nuance. The Russians for instance did help the Iranians in dissuading the Israelis from striking Iran, both directly and indirectly, by helping Iran set up its AA defense which was able to pick up Israeli fighter-bombers heading towards Iranian targets, dissuading the Israelis from conducting their bombing run to its full extent. If the Israelis could bomb Iran via air raids, they certainly would have done so. The fact they couldn't is due to the Russians having helped Iran set up proper defenses. Russian assistance to Iran goes well beyond lip service.

As to the big diplomatic picture today, no one, not even the Russians, expected Trump to give them so much out the gate on the Ukraine front, not just conceding that Ukraine will never be a part of NATO and bullying Zelensky and the entire Euro Slava Ukraini camp, but even going as far as voting on the Russian side along with Cuba and Venezuela in the UN. This puts pressure on the Russians to work with the US on Iran.
 
Israel and its supporters in the Trump administration want Iran to not just scrap its nuclear arsenal, but also its conventional ballistic missiles arsenal. They will never agree to this. It is not certain that they would also agree to renouncing their nukes since there is no guarantee that they would be left alone.

Learning more about Hegseth, it seems like the trump administration is throwing the kitchen sink in their negotiations towards a settlement of the Ukraine war, giving the Russians most of what they want out of the gate, because they want to start working on Iran.

I don't think the Russians are going to ultimately collaborate because US policy changes every 4 years, and because Iran has become an important regional ally for Russia, it is a crucial geostrategic piece for them, giving them access to both the Indian Ocean/India and their booming trade with them, as well as access to the Mideast.
 
The reset button gizmo was not a gift from Lavrov, it was a gift from the Obama administration to the Russians, who at the time thought it was a weird American gimmick. Perhaps something that your "well-educated and critical Russians" or your "wide range of sources/analysis spanning the entire spectrum" did not help you there...

Your take above on the Russian-Iranian relationship, like many of your takes, lacks nuance. The Russians for instance did help the Iranians in dissuading the Israelis from striking Iran, both directly and indirectly, by helping Iran set up its AA defense which was able to pick up Israeli fighter-bombers heading towards Iranian targets, dissuading the Israelis from conducting their bombing run to its full extent. If the Israelis could bomb Iran via air raids, they certainly would have done so. The fact they couldn't is due to the Russians having helped Iran set up proper defenses. Russian assistance to Iran goes well beyond lip service.

As to the big diplomatic picture today, no one, not even the Russians, expected Trump to give them so much out the gate on the Ukraine front, not just conceding that Ukraine will never be a part of NATO and bullying Zelensky and the entire Euro Slava Ukraini camp, but even going as far as voting on the Russian side along with Cuba and Venezuela in the UN. This puts pressure on the Russians to work with the US on Iran.

Thirdworldists are so easy to please. Genuinely already missing the low brow takes on 'muh US collapse' and "muh BRICS its inevitable'. Usually accompanied by some cheap photoshops or AI generated content. At least those fantasies were kinda entertaining in a Schadenfreude type of way. Now it's just straight up spin. What happened to the whole 'Empire of Lies' hegemony must end, dedollarize now, BRICS is the future' thing?

Everything DJT does is within the framework of maintaining the USD as the world's reserve currency/ world trading currency. I call it T's Dollar Doctrine. The USD is literally the one and only pillar of US global hegemony, and central to US foreign policy under Trump. Just stating the obvious here, in anticipation of the thirdworldist habit to muddy the waters by focusing on barely relevant details whilst conveniently ignoring the grand chessboard.

Ergo when Big Boy Putin lowkey drops the tough guy facade and asks for normalization of ties and de-sanctioning Russia in exchange for getting an exit in Ukraine, it means Russia is returning to the global economy aka the USD standard. Because what else do you need access to SWIFT for if it isn't payments in the greenback?

Jingoist rhetorics aside there is hardly any trust between Washington and Moscow. The 2025 detente post Ukraine settlement will be mutually beneficial, yet shortlived. Playacting neutrality of both sides is conflicting with long term goals and objectives. The Trump Administration sees Moscow as a tool to use in the Middle East and Europe, and is likely looking to peel Russia away from Beijing to at least some extent. Meanwhile Moscow thinks it can fool the US into abandoning Europe. Both are not going to happen.

Russia is in a worse place than it was 2022. The Ukraine op got botched, NATO expanded on its borders, Russian positions in the MENA, Southern Caucasus and Central Asia got squeezed, BRICS isn't going anywhere (percentage wise the USD hit a 12 year high in terms of international settlement payment mode percentage in 2024), its economy is in bad shape and Europe is remilitarizing whilst the US plays nice but maintains its military footprint on the Continent.

Especially the emergence of a self-aware, re‐armed and re‐united Europe as a more sovereign and strictly anti Russian pole yet under nominal US protection short to mid-term bears weight. This development is long overdue, and will include real European measures of deterrence including a nuclear umbrella. It's a massive development. Preventing European militarization by lulling them in a false sense of security was quite literally one of the two main objectives of the KGB - the other one breaking up the Europe-US axis through commie infiltration of academic, media and politics, using black propaganda.

So in that light be wary of clowns telling you Europe doesn't have external enemies - especially now that the Putin- Medvedev tandem has threatened to nuke Europe/US a grand total of 50+ times in the last 3 years alone. Be on your guard, and thank the many Soviet defectors on spilling the beans on these multi generational strategies.

Sergey Lavrov, who routinely sounds like an ANTIFA thug and who just the other week blamed Europeans for all evils in this world, is already changing tune. Orwellian stuff. No longer is Europe 'dumb and poor, manipulated souls misled by evil Americans'. Now it's become 'evil Europe, satanically inspired forces who have always wanted to destroy the Russian Motherland'


The turdworldists are thrilled Trump is willing to listen to Putin again. Threw some crumbs down P's way and the man was on his knees within the minute. That inferiority complex is real and shocking to witness. 250k dead Russians, a limping military which will need years to get back on its feet and an economy that's circling down the gutter. Man even offered Trump to do joint stripmining in the Donbass - whose soil by now is bright red from all the Russian blood. Stuff's legit embarrassing
 
Not entitely related to the Middle East, but still of importance especially due to recent sensationalist tendencies spreading regarding US positioning in the world.

Howard Lutnick, Trump's personal handler during the October 7 visit at Chabadnik bigwig Rebbe Mendel Schneerson's NYC tomb, and the US' Secretary of Commerce thinks India should stop buying Russian weapons and should stop being a BRICS members because it doesn't replicate 'US love and affection'.

 
After the Iranian rejection of Trump's negotiation offer the Trump Administration is tightening the screws.



Trump Administration has ordered Iraq to halt its oil, gas imports from Iran. Due to the 2003 war and aftermath the US has total control over Iraqi finances. All the Iraqi oil revenues are forcibly deposited in NY Fed banks, and the US Treasury decides how many USD Iraq can spend and on what. When the Iraqi government voted to expel US troops from Iraq the US threatened to confiscate all of Iraq's reserves hence that vote didn't lead to anything.





In general it seems like T is messing the Middle East dossier up. I am sure the region took notice of his recent empty threats regarding Gaza, and I am also sure the region is aware of Trump's tendency to renegotiate deals halfway down the process. He's proving himself unreliable, impulsive and emotion driven
 
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