The Iran and Wider Middle East Thread



Just 24 hours ago DJT re-instated the maximum pressure doctrine so these words should be read into that framework. The maximum pressure doctrine should also be seen as an extension of Trump's (failed) 2018-2020 effort to renegotiate the JCPOA deal.

The sanctions are an effective manner of kneecapping an already economically handicapped Iran. Trump's 2018 sanctions led to a currency collapse of the rial and a 50+ percent drop of GDP measured in USD/ 15+ percent drop in rial.
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Renegotiating the JCPOA will be tough and this is Trump the negotiator speaking. Only a totally economically destitute Iran - whether led by Reformists or Hardliners is going to be open to resigning the JCPOA but on much worse terms than in 2015.


Trump on Gaza again

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On February 2 Trump ordered several US airstrikes on ISIS positions in Puntland/Somalia. The US occasionally targets al Shabaab/AQ bigwigs in Central Somalia via drones but never this area. The local autonomous Puntland militias are currently undertaking an offensive against ISIS in the mountains but progress is slow. UAE jets have also flown several sorties to support the Puntland forces.



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Puntland, Somaliland and Morocco were mentioned the other day as possible locations to resettle Gazans. Puntland and Somaliland are looking for independence/international recognition, and Morocco is looking for internationally recognized ownership of the Western Sahara. The countries/regions themselves have not reacted yet

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Just 24 hours ago DJT re-instated the maximum pressure doctrine so these words should be read into that framework. The maximum pressure doctrine should also be seen as an extension of Trump's (failed) 2018-2020 effort to renegotiate the JCPOA deal. The sanctions are an effective manner of kneecapping an already economically handicapped Iran. Trump's 2018 sanctions led to a currency collapse of the rial and a 50+ percent drop of GDP measured in USD/ 15+ percent drop in rial.

Renegotiating the JCPOA will be tough and this is Trump the negotiator speaking. Only a totally economically destitute Iran - whether led by Reformists or Hardliners is going to be open to resigning the JCPOA but on much worse terms than in 2015.

In 2025, US/Euro sanctions on Iran won't have the same effect on their economy, that ship has sailed. Iran is becoming economically integrated with China, Russia and even India, and the Eurasian Economic Union.



 
Excessive antagonism. Tone down the mocking, chiding, or denigrating of others
In 2025, US/Euro sanctions on Iran won't have the same effect on their economy, that ship has sailed. Iran is becoming economically integrated with China, Russia and even India, and the Eurasian Economic Union.





Glad you made your comeback to the thread Coop. Was kinda worried you had permanently tapped out after the Iranian position in the Levant collapsed. Which came unexpected, because you'd been telling the parochy for over a year that Israel and the US were on their last legs and blabla. Just kidding now, watching you in that emotional rollercoaster gradually morphing into the e-version of al Sadaf was hilarious. Literally running cover for the inept Iranian Axis of non-resistance talking about 'patience' whilst their allies were getting annihilated one by one. End result: Axis of Resistance deader than disco, unchallenged Israeli position in the Levant and a reduced need for US presence in Syria.

You know me, I don't do victory laps and I am not interested to rub your embarrassing takes in your face because clearly you've suffered enough already. Assad gone, Hezb hung up by the balls and ordered to you sign away territorial sovereignty of Lebanon, Hamas doing a 2013 re-visited ditching the AoR for Turkey-Qatar-Syria under HTS axis. Iraq looking wobbly. The Gazans now subjected to plans on getting them cattle prodded out to unknown destinies and the Reformists liberalizing Iranian society. That's an impressive string of Ls.

In 2025, US/Euro sanctions on Iran won't have the same effect on their economy, that ship has sailed.

The periodically rolled out copes got stale a long time ago. Genuine discourse should be appreciated but this ain't it. Overall people drank the tankie Kool-Aid a little too hard and now are clutching for straws in order to hold on to their debunked worldview. The sanctions are going to hit Iran hard and you'll just have to live with it.


The Rouhani Raisi and Pezeshkian Administrations have all showed years long engagement and commitment to get the sanctions (partially) relieved.

Pezeshkian: we are in talks to achieve sanctions relief, but were set back by the True Promise 1 billion USD fireworks show.

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Iran's Zarif: we were scheduled to have negotiations with the US on October 9 [2023]



Newest development. Iran is preparing a return to the FATF framework as a precursor to sanction relief



From the article:

Iranian authorities say the country will re-examine anti-money laundering and terrorism financing conventions adopted by the global financial crime watchdog FATF.

President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Tuesday that Iran’s Expediency Council, a body responsible for decision-making on overarching issues and policies of the country, will re-examine FATF conventions in a bid to allow Iran to officially accept them.

Pezeshkian made the announcement in a meeting with entrepreneurs and business leaders in Tehran as he expressed hope that accepting FATF conventions would facilitate economic activity in the country.

The comments came hours after Iran’s finance minister Abdolnasser Hemmati said that the country’s top leadership had allowed renewed discussions on FATF conventions in the Expediency Council several years after the body stopped such debates fearing that the conventions may undermine Iran’s financial independence.

FATF restrictions imposed on Iran’s banking system will be removed once the country enacts the Palermo and the Combating the Financing of Terrorism (CFT) conventions.

The Iranian parliament has approved the Palermo and the CFT, but Iran's Guardian Council, which is responsible for vetting parliament legislation, has refused to ratify them, citing the need for some amendments.

Iran has ratified other conventions and regulations adopted by the FATF.

The renewed push to examine Iran’s full accession to the FATF comes amid efforts by Pezeshkian and his administration to open up to the world and to improve an economy affected by global inflation and foreign sanctions.

In his presidential election campaign in mid-summer, Pezshkian criticized the lack of action on FATF issues.

He also vowed to revive a 2015 deal between Iran and world powers that imposes restrictions on the country’s nuclear program in return for easing the sanctions
 
Glad you made your comeback to the thread Coop. Was kinda worried you had permanently tapped out after the Iranian position in the Levant collapsed. Which came unexpected, because you'd been telling the parochy for over a year that Israel and the US were on their last legs and blabla. Just kidding now, watching you in that emotional rollercoaster gradually morphing into the e-version of al Sadaf was hilarious. Literally running cover for the inept Iranian Axis of non-resistance talking about 'patience' whilst their allies were getting annihilated one by one. End result: Axis of Resistance deader than disco, unchallenged Israeli position in the Levant and a reduced need for US presence in Syria.

You know me, I don't do victory laps and I am not interested to rub your embarrassing takes in your face because clearly you've suffered enough already. Assad gone, Hezb hung up by the balls and ordered to you sign away territorial sovereignty of Lebanon, Hamas doing a 2013 re-visited ditching the AoR for Turkey-Qatar-Syria under HTS axis. Iraq looking wobbly. The Gazans now subjected to plans on getting them cattle prodded out to unknown destinies and the Reformists liberalizing Iranian society. That's an impressive string of Ls.



The periodically rolled out copes got stale a long time ago. Genuine discourse should be appreciated but this ain't it. Overall people drank the tankie Kool-Aid a little too hard and now are clutching for straws in order to hold on to their debunked worldview. The sanctions are going to hit Iran hard and you'll just have to live with it.


The Rouhani Raisi and Pezeshkian Administrations have all showed years long engagement and commitment to get the sanctions (partially) relieved.

Pezeshkian: we are in talks to achieve sanctions relief, but were set back by the True Promise 1 billion USD fireworks show.

View attachment 17704

Iran's Zarif: we were scheduled to have negotiations with the US on October 9 [2023]



Newest development. Iran is preparing a return to the FATF framework as a precursor to sanction relief



From the article:

Iranian authorities say the country will re-examine anti-money laundering and terrorism financing conventions adopted by the global financial crime watchdog FATF.

President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Tuesday that Iran’s Expediency Council, a body responsible for decision-making on overarching issues and policies of the country, will re-examine FATF conventions in a bid to allow Iran to officially accept them.

Pezeshkian made the announcement in a meeting with entrepreneurs and business leaders in Tehran as he expressed hope that accepting FATF conventions would facilitate economic activity in the country.

The comments came hours after Iran’s finance minister Abdolnasser Hemmati said that the country’s top leadership had allowed renewed discussions on FATF conventions in the Expediency Council several years after the body stopped such debates fearing that the conventions may undermine Iran’s financial independence.

FATF restrictions imposed on Iran’s banking system will be removed once the country enacts the Palermo and the Combating the Financing of Terrorism (CFT) conventions.

The Iranian parliament has approved the Palermo and the CFT, but Iran's Guardian Council, which is responsible for vetting parliament legislation, has refused to ratify them, citing the need for some amendments.

Iran has ratified other conventions and regulations adopted by the FATF.

The renewed push to examine Iran’s full accession to the FATF comes amid efforts by Pezeshkian and his administration to open up to the world and to improve an economy affected by global inflation and foreign sanctions.

In his presidential election campaign in mid-summer, Pezshkian criticized the lack of action on FATF issues.

He also vowed to revive a 2015 deal between Iran and world powers that imposes restrictions on the country’s nuclear program in return for easing the sanctions



My point was clear, that in 2025 the world has changed and US/EU sanctions alone won't cripple Iran's economy due to the emergence of a large alternative Asian/BRICS trade and investment ecosystem, point bolstered by 3 articles including the WSJ.

Instead of addressing my point, you went on on one of your characteristically weird aggro tirades complete with a celebration of ZOG short term successes in the Levant, items not related to the subject of the Iranian economy and points above.
 
Reminder to be respectful of fellow forum members and maintain proper decorum when debating.
My point was clear, that in 2025 the world has changed and US/EU sanctions alone won't cripple Iran's economy due to the emergence of a large alternative Asian/BRICS trade and investment ecosystem, point bolstered by 3 articles including the WSJ.

Instead of addressing my point, you went on on one of your characteristically weird aggro tirades complete with a celebration of ZOG short term successes in the Levant, items not related to the subject of the Iranian economy and points above.

Put on that victim armour and shine Princess. Not my fault you continue to make a fool outta yourself having faith in and even shilling Iran and their Axis of inbreeding. That country is one giant humiliation ritual.

Just two months ago anyone even forwarding Twitter links not entirely in line with lowbrow turdworldist Tankie framing was swarmed by aggressive and, as the weeks went by, increasing frustrated westoid 50+ year old male Karens. Gaslighting supreme. Their modus operandi as Iran's brave face melted away like a chocolate bar in the tropics: slandering those who had the audicity to think for themselves as 'CIA', 'ZOG' and 'glowies'.

Eventually the dust settled and the mullah fanboizz quietly jumped ship. The Axis of Resistance proved to be a paper tiger of the highest order, and was dismantled within months. Likewise Iran's tinpot military proved to be a paper tiger of the highest order. IRGC got tricked into an unwinnable conflict by MB aligned Hamas' desperation + Israel's October 7 duplicity. Total mismanagement and miscalculation of the potbellied IRGC dinos in Tehran.

Result: IRGC's 50 year old AoR swirling down the drain, total breakdown of Iran's deterrence, Israel unchallenged in the Levant. And of course aforementioned male boomer Karens trying to flip the script in some sort of Semetic musical chairs.

It's legit over and at this point the only reason why the Islamic Republic is allowed to exist is to function as a boogeyman to keep the rowdy Arabs in check. That and as a lever to keep oil prices relatively low and stable aka smooth the global economy + dent the Russian war machine. If it wasn't for that the Israelis+ allies would have disposed the mullahs long ago already.

Instead of addressing my point, you went on on one of your characteristically weird aggro tirades complete with a celebration of ZOG short term successes in the Levant, items not related to the subject of the Iranian economy and points above.

Your points were addressed but maybe the salty tears blurred your vision. About any Iranian turban of any importance is moving heaven and earth to achieve sanctions relief but somehow this doesn't count because muh Iran economy strong!! 1! narrative.

Reality doesn't care about spin and angry Western boomers. Iran's economy is gutter tier, it hardly has any FDI, it's GDP has been devestated by sanctions, it's currency is in total collapse, inflation stands at 50 percent, and due to all the aforementioned factors+ repressive central government Iran is suffering from a major braindrain, capital flight and lack of innovation.
 
Trump Administration flexing hard in the Middle East. State Department has approved a new 'possible' 6.75 billion weapon sale deal for Israel, deliveries will start this year.

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Yesterday the US Deputy Special Envoy Morgan Ortagus arrived in Lebanon making it clear the era of Hezbollah as the leading power broker in Lebanon is over. Ortagus, like number 1 envoy Steve Witkoff, is Jewish.



Hezbollah is in the ropes. With the Tehran-Baghdad-Damascus-Beirut landroute closed, the Reformist Pezeshkian Administration playing hide and seek, it's financial framework destroyed and dealing with the fall out of the military defeat at the hands of Israel suffered in late 2024 Hezbollah is getting ganged up on from all sides.

Israeli strikes have become a daily occurrence again - usually using the 'Hezbollah is re-arming' schtick as legitimization. Hezbollah doesn't militarily respond because it cannot respond. It's military capacities have been thoroughly degraded and any infraction on the Ceasefire Agreement from their side will give Bibi the ammo he needs to convince the Americans to resume the war and deal with Hezb for once and for all.



The new Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, inaugurated on January 9, is dedicated to implementing UN Resolution 1701 aka disarming Hezbollah. Aoun, who is not related to the previous pro Hezb President Michel Aoun, is a Maronite former general and supported by the US, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Aoun is currently forming a government and neither Amal nor Hezb is expected to be part of that.



In the mountainous Lebanese-Syrian border area are serious clashes have broken out between HTS/ Syrian Army and Hezbollah. HTS has made incursions taking over several villages. For now the clashes are restricted to the Bekaa Valley. Hezbollah is currently counterattacking.





According to Saudi outlet al Arabiya the Trump Administration will take a more pro-active attitude on Ansarallah. Reminder that just last week Ansarallah was re-deemed a terrorist organization.

 
The real question is if Trump will put a bomb under his administration, what sort of solution does Trump have in mind that is not with US troops?
 
The real question is if Trump will put a bomb under his administration, what sort of solution does Trump have in mind that is not with US troops?

The breakdown of the ceasefire would simply mean resetting the clock to before January 15 ergo the resumption of the Israel-Hamas war.

Any US military deployment is so far hypothetical and likely related to the evacuation of large numbers of Gazans to Jordan, Egypt and other regions.

Negotiations on that plan have started in fullest. In short: Trump is threatening to collapse the economies of Jordan and Egypt it they don't cooperate.

King Abdullah of Jordan is currently in Washington and changed his tune immediately after talking to Trump. Sisi on the other hand has postponed his visit to Washington indefinitely and has instead put his own plan forward regarding the reconstruction of Gaza. In this plan the Gazans will stay in Gaza.



 
The first stage of the Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire will expire on January 26. By that date the IDF must have withdrawn its forces from Lebanese territory to make way the Lebanese Armed Forces and UNIFIL forces.

In the last 2 months the IDF has been busy destroying settlements and Hezb infrastructure within the 6-7 km deep borderzone. Civilians are prohibited from entering this area.

The Netanyahu government is currently trying to renegotiate the deal saying that the IDF needs permanent points in that border strip stating that the LAF is at times unresponsive and that Hezbollah has been infracting on the ceasefire.

The Trump Administration is allegedly pressuring Bibi to pull out of Lebanon by January 26.

The first stage Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire that was set to expire on January 26 was indeed extended under Israeli pressure. Hezbollah tacitly caved and the Trump Administration gave the green light.

The new expiry date of the first stage of the ceasefire is February 18. Israel is again pushing for the first stage of the ceasefire to be extended - possibly with 10 days or up until the end of March.



The reason given by the Israelis is that they haven't finished yet destroying Hezbollah infrastructure the border strip. Israeli airstrikes/drone strikes deeper into Lebanon have become common again too. There is also a lot of talk of 5 permanent Israeli outposts/bases on Lebanese soil in that border area.



 
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