The Iran and Wider Middle East Thread

LaAguilaNegra said:
Pakistan has been harbouring Jaish al Udl/Jundallah for decades, and Iran has provided a safe heaven for the Baluch Liberation Army (those are the ones that often target Chinese engineers) for a long time too. If Pakistan and Iran wanted to help each other out on these matters they could have brought law and order to their respective parts of Baluchistan a long time ago. But aside from a brief stint in the Sadam era (who funded and supported Baluchi separatism) they haven't. They simply don't want to - just like the Pakistanis tolerate all sorts of jihadist groups on their territory even though the jihadis routinely chimp out and blow things up (they consider them foreign policy assets in India and Afghanistan). The reality is that the Pakistani and Iranians use these outfits as bargaining chips against each other - because, like @PointyElbows explained, this how these corners of the world function even though it doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

There weren't any AD systems active because Pakistan suppressed Iran's Bahman radar systems using EW, and saturated the operational area by test firing. On top of that Iranian early detection systems are poor in performance - the result of the decades long sanction regime. The new Bahman radar system is Iranian produced and couldn't pick up on any of the recent incoming Israeli drone and airstrikes Iranian soil either.

On January 28, 2023 for instance the Israelis targeted Isfahan and other places with suicide drones. Israeli loitering ammunitions traveled close to a thousand kilometer unnoticed and hit a drone production facility in Isfahan. The Iranians immediately tried to play it down for obvious reasons. Similarly explosions occurred in Tabriz, Karaj and other places. The drones were either launched from Iraqi Kurdistan or Azerbaijan. Iranian AD systems did not engage any of the incoming projectiles.


Also that Megatron Twitter channel is again misrepresenting the general consensus to stitch up a narrative. Pakistan acted on a whim's notice and had the objective of establishing a deterrent, not taking out BLA operatives.

Out of the 9 people dead 4 were children and 3 were women.

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Iran has killed a leader of Jaish al Adl in a SF operation on Pakistani soil.



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Also WaPo article hints at Iranian nuclear bomb making capacity



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Iranian Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian visited much of the Middle East last week and since then attacks against US targets have subsided completely in Iraq, last strike on US bases was 9 days ago.

Hezbollah too dialed it down and still hasn't retaliated for the Israeli bombing of Natayieh and others (most severe bombing since 2006) which caused 11 civilian casualties on top of several Hezbollah leaders.

This is done either in preparation for a bigger step on the escalation ladder or some sort of deal has been reached behind the curtains
 
Time is on Iran's side, that's why they don't want to escalate. And why Israel does, they are full on into the Thucydides Trap zone now, knowing that the economic, political and military influence of the Russia-China-Iran block in the mideast is going to grow larger.
 
TruckDriver9 said:
You think Pakistan was notified in advance of this op, or should we expect some kind of response?
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Iranian military operations in the Pakistani borderlands have been common practice for long - it's just that last month they decided to use the big missiles and advertise the results to their domestic public hence the Pakistani junta was more or less obliged to settle the score. The Iranians also regularly target smugglers on the Pakistani side of the border.

Back then the Pakistani public reacted quite fiery as it was seen as scandalous and embarassing, which is always dangerous for strongmen leaders and generals that are heavy on law & order and crafting an image of strength both at home and abroad.

This time the story is much less big and Pakistani newspapers are outright dismissing claims of Iranian operations on Pakistani soil.

So no.


Also take note that despite the worsening relations mutually beneficial hydrocarbon infrastructure projects are moving ahead.

 
Nice chess move by Iran. Rather than reacting out of anger or fear or frustration, they put the responsibility on the USA. End the war on Hamas, and we let it go. Continue the unpopular war on Hamas and we are getting involved. Tough call for DC, do they finally stand up to Israel and Hamas gets their victory over Israel. Or does DC continue business as usual, hope Iran is bluffing, and put our people at great risk?

I imagine they try to call Iran's bluff and continue the attack on the Palestinian people. But we will find out soon enough.

 
It_Is_My_Time said:
Nice chess move by Iran. Rather than reacting out of anger or fear or frustration, they put the responsibility on the USA. End the war on Hamas, and we let it go. Continue the unpopular war on Hamas and we are getting involved. Tough call for DC, do they finally stand up to Israel and Hamas gets their victory over Israel. Or does DC continue business as usual, hope Iran is bluffing, and put our people at great risk?

I imagine they try to call Iran's bluff and continue the attack on the Palestinian people. But we will find out soon enough.

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You won't have to wait too long.
 
I was out of town for a few days, but it appears this situation is really growing some legs. The most amazing thing is watching Tucker talk about how Christians are treated in Israel, Dan "traitor" Crenshaw playing his fake tough guy roll afterwards calling Tucker out, and then getting roasted so badly on twitter he had to take down his tweet.

We have the satanic run west calling Iran begging them to not attack Israel. We have Iran just enjoying the great suspense. We have the GOP and Trump bending over backwards to support Israel even further. We have the DNC falling uphill by accidentally being trapped in supporting Palestine and this becoming a very popular position. Imagine Chump losing the election due to his Israel support alone, LOL, it now appears very likely.

And now even the Middle East appears to realize that the USA/West is so weak/wicked that they just want to sit it out.



"Qatar and Kuwait have notified the United States they will not allow the bases on their territory to be used for attacks against Iran."
 
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It_Is_My_Time said:
We have the DNC falling uphill by accidentally being trapped in supporting Palestine and this becoming a very popular position.
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This is completely incorrect, Biden is shipping billions in weapons to Israel and faces a mass revolt in swing states like Michigan if Israel doesn't fully withdraw from Gaza. Just in the Dem primaries alone, there have been 500,000 "undeclared" votes against Biden, even though Biden was the only one on the ticket.

Biden is an impossible situation: either he leaves Israel behind, and loses all of his money and support from the Talmuds, or he stays with Israel, and loses half a million votes in swing states. Pretty tough to even fraud your way through something like this.
 
Samseau said:
This is completely incorrect, Biden is shipping billions in weapons to Israel and faces a mass revolt in swing states like Michigan if Israel doesn't fully withdraw from Gaza. Just in the Dem primaries alone, there have been 500,000 "undeclared" votes against Biden, even though Biden was the only one on the ticket.

Biden is an impossible situation: either he leaves Israel behind, and loses all of his money and support from the Talmuds, or he stays with Israel, and loses half a million votes in swing states. Pretty tough to even fraud your way through something like this.
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And then Trump, stupidly, is out there saying Biden still isn't doing enough for Israel and is an antisemite. All Trump has to do is say nothing, but that will not be allowed by his handlers.

Biden will not lose his support, the support on his side is furious that Israel has caused millions across the west to notice how evil they are in their handling of Hamas.
 
It_Is_My_Time said:
And then Trump, stupidly, is out there saying Biden still isn't doing enough for Israel and is an countersemite. All Trump has to do is say nothing, but that will not be allowed by his handlers.
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No, this forces Biden to double down on his support of Israel, furthering his impossible position between his voters and his money supply.
 
Samseau said:
No, this forces Biden to double down on his support of Israel, furthering his impossible position between his voters and his money supply.
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Biden already declared "ironclad" support for Israel in the event of military escalation by Iran yesterday.
 
angel_n said:
Biden already declared "ironclad" support for Israel in the event of military escalation by Iran yesterday.
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Correct, a position Trump has put him in. Now Biden is going to lose millions of votes in various swing states.

I'm honestly curious to see how the Dems will rig things around. Not going to be easy for them.
 
Samseau said:
No, this forces Biden to double down on his support of Israel, furthering his impossible position between his voters and his money supply.
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Biden will just keep playing it like he is. Biden supporters are not going to change to Trump over this or sit it out due to their hatred of Trump. Where as Trump supporters are becoming anti-Israel at a rate I never imagined, while Chump is out there touting the need to support Israel.

They will still install Trump, but it will be far too little, and far too late. Thanks to Tik-Tok and social media exposing Israel.
 
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