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The Iran and Wider Middle East Thread
- Thread starter LaAguilaNegra
- Start date
Turkey isolating the USA now as well. The logistics for the USA/Israel to respond to an attack by Iran just got a lot more difficult.
You gotta love how clever the Iranians are even if they are your enemy. They begun retaliating by taking over an Isrselle ship near the UAE and in its way to India. Why? because essentially Iran is telling the US, Isrselle, India, and the UAE that the India Middle East Europe Economic Corridors (IMEC) are never going to happen. Russia and china are pleased. This qualitative response is so delicate it is fascinating. Destoryed the future of a multi billion project with a small act. Darn it guys this is so well thought of. I think betting on Iranian intelligence and Isrselle stupidity is the new game in town.
6:00 AM · Apr 13, 2024
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It's just standard Turkish behaviour, they did it before during the Iraqi Freedom. They always try to play on more than one piano for their own benefit - just look how they dominated the Black Sea trade. So don't put too much of Your trust into Turkey, not only they are sleezy "merchants", but they're also on a collision course with Iran - both countries compete for the regional supremacy and their national interest collide with each other: Turkey working to partition Armenia to establish a land bridge with Azerbaijan and dominate the east-west trade through the Middle Corridor, and Iran supporting Armenia to protect the North–South Transport Corridor. This competition even spills over into post soviet central Asian republics where Turkey provides support to Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, while Iran stands with Tajikistan. So if a war between Amrica and Iran ever erupts, Turkey will most likely try to take advantage of it.
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Not exactly an Israeli ship, but it wasn't random either - it does belong to a company owned by Eyal Ofer, an Israeli oligarch, but its ownership structure is more complicated: "Zodiac Maritime" is a British based subsidiary of a Monaco based conglomerate "Ofer Global" and at the time of hijacking was flying a Portuguese flag and was operated by the Swiss-Italian "Mediterranean Shipping Company". No info on the crew, but most likely they're Indian.
Anyway:
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A sneak peek into Iranian long range arsenal.
Taking the shipping container and the small attacks of a death by a thousand cuts seems like the wise approach for Iran. Iran knows Israel is losing both logistically and popularity around the globe. Iran knows most young people in the west have no desire to fight for Israel any longer or even support them. Iran knows Israel could still cause them massive problems in an all out war. Small little cuts, like taking the shipping container, keeps Israel off balance and slowly continues to weaken them. While Hezbollah and Hamas and the Houthi's do the heavy lifting. It saves the Iranian regime face with their own people, keeps them out of a way, and helps drag out the war in Israel.
Meantime, Russia will continue to pressure the USA in Ukraine and force the USA to not get involved in two wars at once. As long as Iran talks tough, moves around their big equipment, puts on a show, takes some tanker ships, it keeps them out of a war, but puts increasing pressure on Israel and the USA.
Anyone seen gas prices the last few days? Americans are fed up with this system. As long as Iran doesn't do something egregious, they will not have to worry about a full scale war with the USA, especially not in an election year.
Meantime, Russia will continue to pressure the USA in Ukraine and force the USA to not get involved in two wars at once. As long as Iran talks tough, moves around their big equipment, puts on a show, takes some tanker ships, it keeps them out of a war, but puts increasing pressure on Israel and the USA.
Anyone seen gas prices the last few days? Americans are fed up with this system. As long as Iran doesn't do something egregious, they will not have to worry about a full scale war with the USA, especially not in an election year.
Yep, Iran sees our exploding debt... they just keep making threats, forcing the USA to park massive gas guzzling ships in the Middle East, spending billions every week for an attack that never comes.
Shut down trade routes, make life extremely expensive until the beast bleeds unconscious. Then go in for the kill.
My #1 concern is a false flag that ramps up war. Because I'm sure our leaders understand they lose the long game here.
Shut down trade routes, make life extremely expensive until the beast bleeds unconscious. Then go in for the kill.
My #1 concern is a false flag that ramps up war. Because I'm sure our leaders understand they lose the long game here.
I guess in reality no one knows exactly what Iran does or does not have. Maybe they have more firepower and have acquired technology from Russia/China than we realize. The leadership of Iran seems very patient and level headed. If this is an accurate report, and I have seen it in a few places in the last few minutes, Iran might have launched their attack. My only advice is to keep your loved ones the hell out of our military.
Is it though ?
Israel, with the attack on the Iranian embassy comound, crossed all possible red lines, it wasn't just another strike on Iranian assets in Syria, it was a direct (no proxies involved) attack on sovereign Iranian soil. This isn't something that Iran can respond to with business as usual pinprick attacks, they have a legitimate casus belli and if they don not proportionally respond they will lose credibility and deterrence. After all, if seizing a civilian ship, owned through a long line of intermediaries by an Israeli citizen is the only response to an open act of war, then what the Iranians would do if the Israelis attacked a central square in Tehran ? - Would they seize 2 ships and call it a day ?
Stifling international trade is good way to get the US attention, and to pressure Biden to try to bring Israel to heel, but we already know (following the Red Sea crisis) that Bibi doesn't really care about Biden and as long as he has the ziocon support on the Capitol Hill he won't back down. And the Iranian attacks on international commerce and freedom of navigation come at a price - Iran is losing political capital in Asia, and their relations with India (which should be Iran's natural partner) deteriorate.
Biden's handlers are in a tough spot - on one hand they have to accommodate jewish donors, on the other they need to pander to the muslim voters in Michigan and Minnesota - so as long as the Iranian attack is proportional it shouldn't necessarily start an all out war. So Iran has to respond harder than the usual Hezbollah/Houthi pinpricks, but not hard enough to trigger an American response - for example, a drone/missile barrage at the Israeli General Staff HQ in Tel Aviv would be considered an appropriate response, wiping out half the city won't.
3 waves of Shahed-136 type drone, reportedly hundreds of them, heading to Israel.
Considering the low speed of those drones, when compared with missiles, this might be just the opening salvo and other munitions, with greater speed, will be launched in the coming hours to arrive at their designated targets at the same time.
Iranian proxies join in.
If they can synchronize all of their attacks, then the Israeli air defenses will be overwhelmed.
Israeli proxies join in as well.
If they can synchronize all of their attacks, then the Israeli air defenses will be overwhelmed.
Israeli proxies join in as well.
If True, Iran is really going for it, full scale war. I assume they only did this with some back-channel permission from Russia/China.
Seeing a lot of this type dialogue on twitter. Refreshing.
To think: Bill Kristol skin-suits as a neo-CONSERVATIVE:
Noticing continues.
Consider that it might be something that Israel wanted - to escalate the conflict, and draw America to do their bidding.
Two giant questions if this escalates further...
#1) Did Iran have permission/backing from Russia/China before doing this? I think they had to at least discuss it with them. If so, they will neutralize the USA in many ways to help Iran.
#2) How will Americans react when their kids are drug off for this war while their country is going down the drain?
The Jews being reckless goes beyond their political and military backing.
There is a bottom line issue where Israel sits upon an incredibly small piece of real estate. And a huge portion of their population being vaporized can happen quicker than most places.