The Iran and Wider Middle East Thread

Get2choppaaa said:
Are. You. Retarded?
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I'm watching the USA and Israel militaries collapse in real time. I'm not surprised if Netanyahu is in full panic. Watching his hands shake with deep fear after Iran lit them up was enough to tell me how much in over his head Netanyahu is. If it is an A.I. generated photo, it doesn't take away from the report of Iranian hackers getting Mossad information yesterday.
 
I was visiting family and I heard a guest say that the latest attack of Israel on Iran, back in October, hit their nuclear abilities pretty hard. I had to roll my eyes. I wish I could remember what the name of that guest was. It would be fun to retweet to him this article.

 
It's quiet in here, and I wonder why.

A deal has been reached. Details are still blurry, but the main framework is clear. Hostilies will cease and Resolutions 1559 and 1701 will be implemented. Israel, through its guarantor USA+ 4 other countries, will get the freedom to strike when suspicion arises the terms of the ceasefire are getting breached.

What does hocus pocus language in laymen terms mean? Very simple. Hezbollah will withdraw beyond the Litani River. Hezbollah will also move its heavy weapony north of the Litani River. Any breaches to these agreements mean Israeli bombs.

Don't want to say told you so, but told you so. Hezbollah was done the moment Iran made it clear they were not interested in putting themselves on the line. Where was the Beirut Tehran airbridge? Where were the three million Houthis that promised to descent on Israel if Lebanon was touched? Where was Bashar? Where were the Iraqis?

In the end it was US State Department interference that saved Hezbollah from total destruction - even though the Israelis didn't have the stomach for another 6+ month grind to totally destroy the group either. Could be that this ceasefire is part of a bigger deal involving Iran- that remains to be seen.

One other thing, the Hezbollah and Hamas fronts have been divided - even though the late Nasrallah and Khamenei stated dozens of times that Israel would have no peace as long as bombs were dropped on Gaza. Hamas truly stand alone and now that its negotiating position has taken a massive hit the Hamas leadership too will probably go for some sort of deal involving a free travel pass to Iran/Turkey.

It is what it is. A word of advice: next time don't mold your worldview and understanding of power dynamics around one sided and heavily propagandized grifterclowns half a world away.
 
LaAguilaNegra said:
It's quiet in here, and I wonder why.

A deal has been reached. Details are still blurry, but the main framework is clear. Hostilies will cease and Resolutions 1559 and 1701 will be implemented. Israel, through its guarantor USA+ 4 other countries, will get the freedom to strike when suspicion arises the terms of the ceasefire are getting breached.

What does hocus pocus language in laymen terms mean? Very simple. Hezbollah will withdraw beyond the Litani River. Hezbollah will also move its heavy weapony north of the Litani River. Any breaches to these agreements mean Israeli bombs.

Don't want to say told you so, but told you so. Hezbollah was done the moment Iran made it clear they were not interested in putting themselves on the line. Where was the Beirut Tehran airbridge? Where were the three million Houthis that promised to descent on Israel if Lebanon was touched? Where was Bashar? Where were the Iraqis?

In the end it was US State Department interference that saved Hezbollah from total destruction - even though the Israelis didn't have the stomach for another 6+ month grind to totally destroy the group either. Could be that this ceasefire is part of a bigger deal involving Iran- that remains to be seen.

One other thing, the Hezbollah and Hamas fronts have been divided - even though the late Nasrallah and Khamenei stated dozens of times that Israel would have no peace as long as bombs were dropped on Gaza. Hamas truly stand alone and now that its negotiating position has taken a massive hit the Hamas leadership too will probably go for some sort of deal involving a free travel pass to Iran/Turkey.

It is what it is. A word of advice: next time don't mold your worldview and understanding of power dynamics around one sided and heavily propagandized grifterclowns half a world away.
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This is all FAR from over. Again, travel to the USA, actually talk to people here about how "great" things are. The only reason Israel is able to commit war crimes and get away with it is the USA's strength. And it is wanning. And when our power is obsolete, it might already be, that is when Israel better hope they found another savior, or it will get very ugly for them.
 
You are right, this is far from over. Hezbollah was defeated but continues to exist. Hezb will, despite the agreement, almost immediately start rearming themselves yet this time the battlefront will be south of the Awali River instead of south of the Litani River.

Less than two months until Trump's inauguration. For those interested and not looking for 24/7 copium, it's highly likely the Biden Administration told Bibi to take the deal because they were about to lift the diplomatic blockade maintained by the US in the UNSC - meaning Israel would be unilaterally obligated to end the wars at the threat of international isolation.

In the light of the recent ICC decisions that couldn't happen hence Israel agreed to the ceasefire agreement. Bibi might very well restart the entire thing in the first week of the Trump Administration.
 
It_Is_My_Time said:
This is all FAR from over. Again, travel to the USA, actually talk to people here about how "great" things are. The only reason Israel is able to commit war crimes and get away with it is the USA's strength. And it is wanning. And when our power is obsolete, it might already be, that is when Israel better hope they found another savior, or it will get very ugly for them.
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I don’t understand what framework you’re operating from. What is this comeuppance you constantly allude to? No offence but this is like nice guy philosophy applied to geopolitics.

Chad is going to crash and burn, Stacy [America] is going to be left as a sad roastie, Abdul is stacking his money and going to win in the end.

The only comeuppance that is coming is against these retarded boomers. Leftists are nothing. White men have been pushed too far. As soon as liberalism shows cracks these boomers and their sycophants rush to take the reins only to shove a Jewish cock in our mouth. They’re going to learn.
 
Sandalwood Peak said:
I don’t understand what framework you’re operating from. What is this comeuppance you constantly allude to? No offence but this is like nice guy philosophy applied to geopolitics.

Chad is going to crash and burn, Stacy [America] is going to be left as a sad roastie, Abdul is stacking his money and going to win in the end.

The only comeuppance that is coming is against these retarded boomers. Leftists are nothing. White men have been pushed too far. As soon as liberalism shows cracks these boomers and their sycophants rush to take the reins only to shove a Jewish cock in our mouth. They’re going to learn.
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I apologize, but I am not sure what you are saying. Are you saying you expect White men to get pushed too far and take their countries back and end the Israel-first policies?
 
It_Is_My_Time said:
I apologize, but I am not sure what you are saying. Are you saying you expect White men to get pushed too far and take their countries back and end the Israel-first policies?
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Of course not. Some britbong told me that in the future there’s going to be a boot stomping on a human face forever. Fascism is so scary bro, that quote haunts me. This is why the galaxy has a new hope, his name is Abdul Skywalker and Lee Solo. They’re creating a new kind of Monopoly money; Non-usd.
 
Sandalwood Peak said:
Of course not. Some britbong told me that in the future there’s going to be a boot stomping on a human face forever. Fascism is so scary bro, that quote haunts me. This is why the galaxy has a new hope, his name is Abdul Skywalker and Lee Solo. They’re creating a new kind of Monopoly money; Non-usd.
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I'm being sincere, I have no idea what you are trying to say and this doesn't clear it up at all. What is your point?
 
It_Is_My_Time said:
But he never answered my original question and I don't want to put words into his mouth and strawman what his beliefs are, without even knowing them. I just am not sure what it is he believes.
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We were in a race to the bottom because there are systematic flaws in our society. Those are sin, jews, women. People ignored the problems, tried to find compromises or loopholes.

So if we look at vagina, the vagina supply has been drying up in the west. In the end, men went overseas. The vagina supply is now drying up overseas. There’s no reason there should be some exponentially growing scarcity for vagina. Something is terribly wrong. Society is not operating as it should.

Anyway, we’ve now hit the bottom. Now you will see how rapidly attitudes change once everyone sees that the shelves are empty.

The only people who want to live under the Jews are boomers. The kikes trust Hindus more than a white millennial to uphold their kike order. Imagine that.

It’s over. They’re finished. White men are going to be nice to each other again soon. That’s the only possible outcome. That’s the real treasure.
 
The ceasefire has come into effect.

Additional information on the ceasefire: there will be a 60 day transition phase in which Hezbollah moves north of the Litani River, and the IDF remains in Lebanon. After this transition period the IDF will leave Lebanon and the implementation of Resolution 1701 (disarmament of armed factions south of the Litani River) will be on the LAF and UNIFIL.

To navigate and smoothen the implementation of the ceasefire agreement the US will open monitoring offices in Beirut and Safed which will function as hubs for LAF and IDF cooperation on implementing the agreement. Within the agreement the IDF has the right to strike when the agreement gets breached - although it's still unclear whether this will be in accordance with the ceasefire guarantors (US+France and possibly UK+Germany), or whether the IDF can act alone. The 60 day transition period is likely to see whether the LAF and UNIFIL will take their job seriously as they dismantle the extensive Hezbollah bunker networks in the area.

The success of this agreement will depend on its implementation. On paper Hezbollah capitulated on about every single position they held - the logical endresult of the 3 month long ass whooping they received. However, if the agreement isn't properly implemented a. this strategic defeat will either turn into a breather moment for Hezbollah, used to rearm, reorganize and regroup for the next round of conflict somewhere down the road, or b. be thrown into the paper shredder by the Israelis.

 
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Aldebaran said:
Of all the things that will never happen, this will never happen the most.
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Naim Qassem through his liaison Najib Berri (Amalist) has agreed to the conditions put forward by the Americans and Israelis. Same goes for the Iranians who obviously have a big say in anything Hezbollah related.

Ergo any breach will be pinned on Hezbollah.

If your scepticism is correct there are two options. 1. The ceasefire deal is an Israeli set up to cause domestic strife in Lebanon and remove international restraints on Israeli aggression vs Hezbollah/Iran by framing Hezbollah as the aggressor because unable to abide by mutually accepted agreements..

Or 2. This is a ploy by Hezbollah/Iran to force Israel on the back foot as they see Netanyahu's (coerced) willingness to sign the agreement as a fundamental weakness. Hezbollah will immediately re-infiltrate the area south of the Litani River banking on Bibi getting cold feet about firing up the Lebanon war theater again. Ergo they believe that Israel's threat to renew war on Hezbollah as procluded in the ceasefire is an empty threat and bluf.
 
LaAguilaNegra said:
Naim Qassem through his liaison Najib Berri (Amalist) has agreed to the conditions put forward by the Americans and Israelis. Same goes for the Iranians who obviously have a big say in anything Hezbollah related.

Ergo any breach will be pinned on Hezbollah.

If your scepticism is correct there are two options. 1. The ceasefire deal is an Israeli set up to cause domestic strife in Lebanon and remove international restraints on Israeli aggression vs Hezbollah/Iran by framing Hezbollah as the aggressor because unable to abide by mutually accepted agreements..

Or 2. This is a ploy by Hezbollah/Iran to force Israel on the back foot as they see Netanyahu's (coerced) willingness to sign the agreement as a fundamental weakness. Hezbollah will immediately re-infiltrate the area south of the Litani River banking on Bibi getting cold feet about firing up the Lebanon war theater again. Ergo they believe that Israel's threat to renew war on Hezbollah as procluded in the ceasefire is an empty threat and bluf.
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I lean towards 2...but could be off.

Bibi isn't in as strong or a position as he postulates as we've seen with tons of unrest in Israel.... And the Hezbollah crowd is always going to press the envelope.
 
Get2choppaaa said:
I lean towards 2...but could be off.

Bibi isn't in as strong or a position as he postulates as we've seen with tons of unrest in Israel.... And the Hezbollah crowd is always going to press the envelope.
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I lean towards official explanation/ 1.

Hezbollah has made several gigantic miscalculations. They entered the war on October 8 thinking their pinprick bottle rockets would scare/force Israel out of Gaza. Continued being on the escalation ladder backfoot for most of the year until Bibi 3 months suddenly accelerated the pace of things leading to Hezb's current isolated position, heavy losses in manpower and loss of deterrent.

However you never know with these type of radical ideological groups. Their thought patterns and view of the world are fundamentally different. Their leadership signs a ceasefire agreement which negates the group's entire raison d'etre, they then climb on the flattened slabs of one of the many leveled Beirut apartment blocks and genuinely declare victory.
 
LaAguilaNegra said:
I lean towards official explanation/ 1.

Hezbollah has made several gigantic miscalculations. They entered the war on October 8 thinking their pinprick bottle rockets would scare/force Israel out of Gaza. Continued being on the escalation ladder backfoot for most of the year until Bibi 3 months suddenly accelerated the pace of things leading to Hezb's current isolated position, heavy losses in manpower and loss of deterrent.

However you never know with these type of radical ideological groups. Their thought patterns and view of the world are fundamentally different. Their leadership signs a ceasefire agreement which negates the group's entire raison d'etre, they then climb on the flattened slabs of one of the many leveled Beirut apartment blocks and genuinely declare victory.
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That's the trouble with fighting madmen with little to loose and international pan arab coalitions sympathies cheering them on.

Both sides are egregiously terrible. But from a practical sense, possibly the Trump stability leads credence to forcing both sides to stop the warfare and get along until the next regime matriculates.
 
Get2choppaaa said:
That's the trouble with fighting madmen with little to loose and international pan arab coalitions sympathies cheering them on.

Both sides are egregiously terrible. But from a practical sense, possibly the Trump stability leads credence to forcing both sides to stop the warfare and get along until the next regime matriculates.
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The right wing Bibi aligned Israeli OSINT channels were elated when Trump was elected, and they are eagerly awaiting the moment he moves into the Oval Office. Trump might not start any wars, but he will be harsh on Iran and proxies. That's a given.


Meanwhile in Syria HTS/AQ has started a 'pre emptive attack' on SAA forces in Western Aleppo. Even though likely limited in scope, it's the first serious offensive in years and therefor relevant. Several towns have come under HTS control in this attack. Syrian and Russian aircraft is active in the region.





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