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Donald Trump

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MacManus said:
The polling (both general and primaries) is a psyop....don't fall for it. They want Trump as the nominee because they can beat him and on the off chance they don't, they know how to play him like a fiddle.

DeSantis may not win tonight (gun to head I think he will, but it's far from certain) but the polling in Iowa is nowhere close to accurate. Trump and his de facto allies (until the primary is over) in the MSM are already starting to spread excuses about the weather and Vivek hurting him.
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Whats your point spread?
We are literally gonna see what happens soon.

Do you think DeSantis is going to come in second and get 30 percent?

Or 3rd with 25 or less?

What if it looks something like:

Trump 45
Haley 35
DeSantis 20
Vivek 10....

I'd say there's not a path then. Haley isn't going anywhere as she's the new favorite for donors.

Now I'd he comes in second with 30 percent...maybe he can hang around.
 
Get2choppaaa said:
Whats your point spread?
We are literally gonna see what happens soon.

Do you think DeSantis is going to come in second and get 30 percent?

Or 3rd with 25 or less?

What if it looks something like:

Trump 45
Haley 35
DeSantis 20
Vivek 10....

I'd say there's not a path then. Haley isn't going anywhere as she's the new favorite for donors.

Now I'd he comes in second with 30 percent...maybe he can hang around.
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It’s no secret that Desantis put everything into the Iowa caucuses. Let’s see if that works out for him. Honestly his campaign was done 6 months ago when the donors shifted their money to Haley
 
Get2choppaaa said:
Whats your point spread?
We are literally gonna see what happens soon.

Do you think DeSantis is going to come in second and get 30 percent?

Or 3rd with 25 or less?

What if it looks something like:

Trump 45
Haley 35
DeSantis 20
Vivek 10....

I'd say there's not a path then. Haley isn't going anywhere as she's the new favorite for donors.

Now I'd he comes in second with 30 percent...maybe he can hang around.
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It'll be within 5% either way and Haley is more likely to finish 4th than 2nd.

RDS/Trump ~40%, Vivek/Haley ~10%
 
eradicator said:
It’s no secret that Desantis put everything into the Iowa caucuses. Let’s see if that works out for him. Honestly his campaign was done 6 months ago when the donors shifted their money to Haley
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A win (or theoretically even a close 2nd, but I think he needs an actual W for full psychological effect) in Iowa proves conclusively that the Iowa polls were at minimum absolute nonsense and more likely a deliberate psyop intended to steer the electorate towards Trump. If that proves to be the case, why would we assume the polls in the other states or nationally are any different?

I do think Trump genuinely still has a lead nationally, but it's much closer to 10% than 40% and much even of that is the inevitability talking point. A win in Iowa destroys that and only really at the cost of neglecting NH, which due to the makeup of the electorate there was always going to be tough for him anyway.
 
Trump 53%
DeSantis 20%
Haley 19%
Ramaswamy 8%

It's a blowout!

I've been under the impression the numbers were like this for a while now. I'm surprised DeSantis and Haley didn't come in a few points lower in fact. For what it's worth, Trump seems completely dominant in the Republican primaries this year.
 
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Thomas More said:
Trump 53%
DeSantis 20%
Haley 19%
Ramaswamy 8%

It's a blowout!

I've been under the impression the numbers were like this for a while now. I'm surprise DeSantis and Haley didn't come in a few points lower in fact. For what it's worth, Trump seems completely dominant in the Republican primaries this year.
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Gee.... maybe the polling for Iowa weren't totally bunk.... and the 100 million + each spent by Nimerata and DeSantis were a TOTAL WASTE.



I suspect there are some people eating their hat right now....

I'm fine with Ron getting second (just barely beating Nimarata) Thats fine for me, I'd rather her get as little momentum as possible going into NH which is going to have a large amount of Democrats vote in it.

If you'd like to see a sad twitter account... check out bill Mitchell here. He's having a really hard night.
 
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Insane that the media scumbags called it when most of the state hadn't even voted yet let alone got counted, that didn't make 30% difference though. Congrats to the Trump supporters but I don't think this is the best way forward.
 
MacManus said:
Insane that the media scumbags called it when most of the state hadn't even voted yet let alone got counted, that didn't make 30% difference though. Congrats to the Trump supporters but I don't think this is the best way forward.
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I'm glad DeSantis got second and Nimrod didn't beat him. I still like him over her, but they've both wasted over 100 mil each.... Makes you wonder why they are still in if not to spoil the election.(at least that's going to be the attack they are going to get from Trump supporters)

There's zero delegate math for either of them and I'm predicting Florida and S Carolina are going Trump bigly also...never mind Tennessee, Texas, Ohio...among others.

For what it's worth... Trump was very laudatory towards DeSantis and Nikki and Vivek and didn't make any ugly remarks.
 
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GodfatherPartTwo said:
Respectfully, I disagree. I don't like it when any of the seniored members leave. I strongly disagree with my fellow Catholics and Orthodox on the ultimacy of the Bible, but I don't feel the need to impugn their mental health or see them banned, especially when the forum already has the tools to ensure you never have to read anything you don't want to anyway.
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It's funny because IIMT is the only member I have ever put on ignore (both on the old forum, then gave him a chance in this new one only to regret it and go back to ignore)... yet I come in this thread and all I am reading is about him.

There's no way out!!!
 
TooFineAPoint said:
It's funny because IIMT is the only member I have ever put on ignore (both on the old forum, then gave him a chance in this new one only to regret it and go back to ignore)... yet I come in this thread and all I am reading is about him.

There's no way out!!!
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Hah. Same. He’s the only user I ever ignored. And I gave him a second shot on the new forum and he’s even more black pill now. Honestly I was thinking he must be a glowie or just a complete black pill, either way ignore
 
eradicator said:
Hah. Same. He’s the only user I ever ignored. And I gave him a second shot on the new forum and he’s even more black pill now. Honestly I was thinking he must be a glowie or just a complete black pill, either way ignore
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Well one thing that isn't s black pill for Trump fans is the Trump performance and the per vote spend ratio....
Must be all those Iowans are stupid ... Or the other candidates just got outworked by a billionaire who delivers pizzas then flew back for a sham trial all in the same 2 days.


.


My predictions were off, I over predicted DeSantis and Haley, and threw in an extra 10 percent somewhere between the two, and still under predicted Trump by 5. So ... Well .. I'm just 110% glad to see the Orange Man not flop like a fish.
 
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So for argument sake, if something happens to Trump prior to the Nov presidential election blocking him from running, would the #2 automatically be the Republican nominee on the Presidential ballot?
 
bubs said:
So for argument sake, if something happens to Trump prior to the Nov presidential election blocking him from running, would the #2 automatically be the Republican nominee on the Presidential ballot?
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No it’s definitely not automatic. The rnc will hold the convention as scheduled. Let’s say they assassinate Trump, either actually kill him physically or just kill him politically/cancel him and declare him a terrorist, take all his money and jail him.

Trump will still have almost all of the delegates from the primaries, but would be ineligible if he’s dead or worse.

The delegates would have to vote for someone else. Haley and Desantis would both make their case. Or the bureaucrats could go with a dc insider (Mitch McConnell? Some other stooge?). The convention would go on until the delegates get a majority. They will have multiple votes initially likely with no majority and after each vote they reconvene after talking amongst themselves and try to come to some sort of consensus or at least a majority. Then whoever they decide and go with will be the candidate in the general election.

This is how it has worked in the past, to my understanding

Edit, there’s good reason why the rnc will not want to actually do this, it would almost certainly fracture the party and be the end of the party. Whether or not they care about that or even realize it is debatable
 
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