The Venezuela Thread

[Get2choppaaa]

I know it's armchair military "analysis" from a guy with no military background but this is from August 2025:

A lot of what you say here is spot on.

I do suspect that Putin miscalculated how easy the regime change was going to be and was trying to straddle the fence between successful ops and saving face publicly.

We on the other hand having the worlds reserve currency and being the worlds Police force....don't have to be bothered with such constraints

 

[Get2choppaaa]

Would love to see $1 per gallon gas sometime in my lifetime.

Not if you want to see the US remain the Oil Superpower.

As I've outlined (and I am pretty familiar with this from working in the industry post Military career)

That would be very very very bad for CAPEX and future projects in the US. By lowering the price per bbl ans thus reducing the cost per gallon at the pump... You'll make it where the oil companies won't invest in new projects in the US.

This will kill American Jobs and be bad for the industry.

I'm more inclined to think that VZ isn't going to make a huge ripple in the market except that it stops an avenue of China AND shores up our position.

All the US SuperMajors had a nice stock bump so clearly folks are excited about this....but no one's proposed investing 30 billion dollars in VZ yet... So there's that.

 

[LaAguilaNegra]

Not if you want to see the US remain the Oil Superpower.

As I've outlined (and I am pretty familiar with this from working in the industry post Military career)

That would be very very very bad for CAPEX and future projects in the US. By lowering the price per bbl ans thus reducing the cost per gallon at the pump... You'll make it where the oil companies won't invest in new projects in the US.

This will kill American Jobs and be bad for the industry.

I'm more inclined to think that VZ isn't going to make a huge ripple in the market except that it stops an avenue of China AND shores up our position.

All the US SuperMajors had a nice stock bump so clearly folks are excited about this....but no one's proposed investing 30 billion dollars in VZ yet... So there's that.

For US oil industry to return to Venezuela there needs to be political stability and a solid investment climate, which currently doesn't exist. Trump got others and I fooled good when he said 'Maduro must go'. All of us thought he meant the end of the Chavistas, turns out it's just a paid cruise and sightseeing tour for Maduro+wife in NYC, all the rest of the commie scumbags are still in place and are being groomed and dolled up to become the new partners and compagnons.

Wonder if the oil company execs, boards and shareholders are convinced by the sudden change in rhetoric. I am certainly not. The Chavistas quite literally ran Venezuela’s oil production and infrastructure into the ground before, and Rystadt Energy has calculated that it will take 10-15 years and tens of billions of USD in renewed investments to just get back to 1990-2000s level of production numbers, aka 3 million bpd. That might be an overtly negative assesment but the point still stands. Chavistas have expropriated US companies (Exxon and Conico still have tabs standing out), mismanaged and undermaintained the oil sector and infrastructure and staffed the PVSDA with regime loyalists instead of experts whilst inviting foreign state owned companies before, they are in no shape or form reliable or suitable partners.

There is more though, oil sector prefers working in a environment of political stability and quiet and deregulated business climate. Like Guyana next door, won't be surprised if the US oil sector just goes for Guyana whilst paying lip service to Trump and the Venezuelan Project whilst quietly sidestepping it. Venezuela is not like Guyana and won't be like Guyana. Instead the removal of Maduro, continued naval embargo and emerging factionalism within Chavismo signal the beginning of a new era of political unrest.

Only certainty is that the days of Venezuelan oil exports to DC's geostrategic adversaries are over though. This might or might not have been the actual objective of the recent and sudden turn on Venezuela, that and preliminary dismantling Venezuela as a deterrent and escalation ladder equilizer in future conflict scenarios.

 

[LaAguilaNegra]

I highly doubt Venezuela has $1 trillion in silver and gold.

It's kooky nonsense typed up by slopmerchants looking to one up each other on hot takes, entire alt-internet is full of them. Venezuela is neither in the top 10 of silver deposits nor silver producers, it's deliberate misinformation spun up to sow misinformation, garner clicks and engagements, and create multiple potential narratives to work with somewhat down the line. This type of narrative flooding has unfortunately become the norm (just watch the Charlie Kirk aftermath) and always comes from the same direction: Kremlin cultivated assets.

The fact that it's currently happening in relation to Venezuela proves this is a feature and not a thought out strategy. Trump Team has been brutally honest about their incentives and its stonecold resource grabbing, trashing of international law and geostrategic manoeuvering. Gone are the days wherein people would be gaslit and naked aggression would be cloaked in terms of bringing 'peace and democracy', or 'US biolabs, neonazis in the Rada and muh civilians in the Donbass'.

Hence there is no need for schizoposting yet apparantly these grifters can't help themselves with their batshit theories, they just have to act the contrarian narcissist, speculate & schizopost for shameless grifting and destabilization efforts. Trustmebro its all about the silver!

 

[Get2choppaaa]

For US oil industry to return to Venezuela there needs to be political stability and a solid investment climate, which currently doesn't exist. Trump got others and I fooled good when he said 'Maduro must go'. All of us thought he meant the end of the Chavistas, turns out it's just a paid cruise and sightseeing tour for Maduro+wife in NYC, all the rest of the commie scumbags are still in place and are being groomed and dolled up to become the new partners and compagnons.

The question is how long will these folks be in power, is there going to be a color revolution, and if not will these folks play ball?

I'm not sure this is over....

Wonder if the oil company execs, boards and shareholders are convinced by the sudden change in rhetoric. I am certainly not. The Chavistas quite literally ran Venezuela’s oil production and infrastructure into the ground before, and Rystadt Energy has calculated that it will take 10-15 years and tens of billions of USD in renewed investments to just get back to 1990-2000s level of production numbers, aka 3 million bpd. That might be an overtly negative assesment but the point still stands. Chavistas have expropriated US companies (Exxon and Conico still have tabs standing out), mismanaged and undermaintained the oil sector and infrastructure and staffed the PVSDA with regime loyalists instead of experts whilst inviting foreign state owned companies before, they are in no shape or form reliable or suitable partners.

There is more though, oil sector prefers working in a environment of political stability and quiet and deregulated business climate. Like Guyana next door, won't be surprised if the US oil sector just goes for Guyana whilst paying lip service to Trump and the Venezuelan Project whilst quietly sidestepping it. Venezuela is not like Guyana and won't be like Guyana. Instead the removal of Maduro, continued naval embargo and emerging factionalism within Chavismo signal the beginning of a new era of political unrest.

When Guyana has a friendly government, local content that is very supportive, and there is a direct known production and the ability to provide direct ROI with CAPEX investments.... It's a hard sell to throw down 30 billion or whatever to bring up VZ. Also with Hess being purchased by Chevron. They're now in partnership with ExxonMobil and CNOC in Guyana.

Chevron may have some direct benefits for this with their existing relationship still more or less intact... But Conoco and Exxon...not so sure they'll bite. Especially with the different models of Guyana and Suriname FPSO/crude lifting tanker ops vs land based pipeline and drilling onshore infrastructure differences.

Nothing that can't be overcome but it's just different models.

Only certainty is that the days of Venezuelan oil exports to DC's geostrategic adversaries are over though. This might or might not have been the actual objective of the recent and sudden turn on Venezuela, that and preliminary dismantling Venezuela as a deterrent and escalation ladder equilizer in future conflict scenarios.

To me this is clearly the main reason for the operation.

Regardless of what everyone who is skeptical about the US Military ability to project power from the sea.... We are still the world's most competent military.

Chinese and Russian tech, always has a counter measure and the sheer logistics capabilities of our forces are unparalleled.

Especially in our Backyard.

2040 is a long way away... Someone (likely Chevron) will need to be a first mover for this investment...unless the US Gov is going to directly subsidize these investments.

 

[LaAguilaNegra]

The Cuban government just announced that during the US raid 32 Cuban nationals were killed. These 32 belonged to the FAR (Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces) and MININT (Ministry of Interior Affairs).

Cuba, as stated before, was and is a big player in the spread of Latin third world socialism by whatever name in both Africa and Latin America. Furthermore rumours about Maduro's security detail existing of ideologically dedicated foreign professionals/ mercs has been going around for years, as early as 2018-2019 there was talk of Wagner getting involved in protecting Maduro and engaging in security of HVT oil installations+ infrastructural hubs.





View attachment 26719

Identities of the 32 Cubans has been disclosed, all military personnel/ Intel officers and most over 50 years of age. Tasked with Maduro's personal protection, some big fish were eliminated as well including a Colonel who was in charge of high ranking visits to Cuba. Up until two days ago rumors on Maduro being under the protection of foreign mercs/professionals (Wagner and DI) was always dismissed.

 

[LaAguilaNegra]

Update/correction:

Despite earlier reports, tanker "Bella 1" haven't been seized.
USCG intercepted the vessel and attempted to board her, but the crew didn't comply and turned the tanker. Coast Guard in pursuit.

View attachment 26448

According to the NYT the sanctioned, Iran linkedand and by now Russian flagged Bella-1/Marinera is escorted by a Russian submarine and several other naval assets. According to other sources the ship is also getting trailed by a USCG Cutter and the US still is intent on boarding the vessel. There are frequent intel gathering flights over the area of passage. The vessel never reached Venezuela and set out from Iran some time ago

 

[Get2choppaaa]

According to the NYT the sanctioned, Iran linkedand and by now Russian flagged Bella-1/Marinera is escorted by a Russian submarine and several other naval assets. According to other sources the ship is also getting trailed by a USCG Cutter and the US still is intent on boarding the vessel. There are frequent intel gathering flights over the area of passage. The vessel never reached Venezuela and set out from Iran some time ago









View attachment 26780View attachment 26781

Not to derail but I'll say:

Love to see the Sal Mercagliano posts. I would trust his commentary above just about anyone in the space. John Conrad at G Captain also is good. But they often disagree in an entertaining fashion.

When I was working in a Import/Export role and conducting frequent container and bulk shipping I would watch his show every time he posted a "What the Ship". Probably got me my first promotion at that company simply by sending out a monthly market update that blended the quarterly reports from our suppliers with his market commentary...even corresponded with him to tell him how much I appreciate his feedback and how helpful it was for me. The dude is a total class act (and he shits on Peter Zeihann all the time) He gained some notoriety on the Houthi extravaganza as one of the best voices covering it. He is also great on Jones Act (I deal with this a lot now) and USCG current events and the state of ship building in general.

For anyone who wants to understand maritime shipping and international supply chain he is a must follow.

Ok moving on....

It will be quite interesting to see the aftermath of us boarding and seizing the vessel and what Russia does with this Submarine.

IF there is this much open source info being allowed to be presented (whether factual or not) I bet there is much more going on than just 1 known sub....on both sides

 

[It_Is_My_Time]

 

[TruckDriver9]

According to the NYT the sanctioned, Iran linkedand and by now Russian flagged Bella-1/Marinera is escorted by a Russian submarine and several other naval assets.

Will be escorted. That is if they make it in time (sailing from Murmansk I guess), because US special forces are in Britain and preparing to board her.

So it's a race who gets to her first. Weather conditions will be the decisive factor.

 

[Read_Lives_of_Saints]

From Twitter saying that China had developed an expensive refinery in Guangdong solely for the purpose of dealing with Venezuelan crude.

 

[LaAguilaNegra]

Will be escorted. That is if they make it in time (sailing from Murmansk I guess), because US special forces are in Britain and preparing to board her.

So it's a race who gets to her first. Weather conditions will be the decisive factor.

Marinera/ Bella-1 is currently getting boarded according to Reuters, and has changed course southwards

 

[TruckDriver9]

Currently getting boarded according to Reuters

Seems so.

 

[Caduceus]

Identities of the 32 Cubans has been disclosed, all military personnel/ Intel officers and most over 50 years of age. Tasked with Maduro's personal protection, some big fish were eliminated as well including a Colonel who was in charge of high ranking visits to Cuba. Up until two days ago rumors on Maduro being under the protection of foreign mercs/professionals (Wagner and DI) was always dismissed.

View attachment 26778View attachment 26777

A lot of these Cubans look like faces/heads superimposed on a stock military uniform.

 

[It_Is_My_Time]

 

[Caduceus]

According to the NYT the sanctioned, Iran linkedand and by now Russian flagged Bella-1/Marinera is escorted by a Russian submarine and several other naval assets. According to other sources the ship is also getting trailed by a USCG Cutter and the US still is intent on boarding the vessel. There are frequent intel gathering flights over the area of passage. The vessel never reached Venezuela and set out from Iran some time ago









View attachment 26780View attachment 26781

Obviously there is something very important on this rogue ship that both the Russians and the Americans want very badly.

 

[It_Is_My_Time]

Looks like we captured it.

 

[TruckDriver9]

Obviously there is something very important on this rogue ship that both the Russians and the Americans want very badly.

She departed Iran after the US force build-up in the Caribbean had begun, so it's not out of the question that she was used to smuggle weapons (kamikaze drones for example). However I'm not really sold on that idea - if we knew she was a weapons runner, the Navy would take care of her from the beginning, not the Coast Guard which didn't have the resources to take her by force.
I think it's all about the optics. We had to take her after she refused to be boarded and made a run, otherwise it would set a precedence and all other vessels would try their luck. Same for the Russians - after they agreed to register her under their flag, they couldn't just sit on their hands and do nothing. Not without losing their face, but it looks like they were just too late to react.

 

[Get2choppaaa]

She departed Iran after the US force build-up in the Caribbean had begun, so it's not out of the question that she was used to smuggle weapons (kamikaze drones for example). However I'm not really sold on that idea - if we knew she was a weapons runner, the Navy would take care of her from the beginning, not the Coast Guard which didn't have the resources to take her by force.
I think it's all about the optics. We had to take her after she refused to be boarded and made a run, otherwise it would set a precedence and all other vessels would try their luck. Same for the Russians - after they agreed to register her under their flag, they couldn't just sit on their hands and do nothing. Not without losing their face, but it looks like they were just too late to react.

Straight from the source.

 

[dicknixon72]

I guess we're serious about this transgender ideology. You can't just identify yourself as a Russian tanker and think everyone is going to call you a Russian tanker. It was born in Venezuelan tanker and that's how we identify it.