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The Russian-Ukrainian War of 2022 (News and battle updates only)

Crimea - 21.01.2024
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"Missile attack on Crimea. January 21, 2024

▪️ During the day, the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to attack the Crimean peninsula.
▪️ Initially, in the Kherson region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched several HARM anti-radar missiles, which were shot down by Russian air defense crews.
▪️ At the same time, three Su-24M bombers flew from the Starokonstantinov airfield to Nikolaev, where they launched four Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles in the direction of the peninsula.
- Two of them were shot down in the Henichesk area, and the target, given the direction, most likely was Kerch and the surrounding area. The Storms flew along a similar route during the previous attack on the Zaliv plant.
- Another one was intercepted by the 31st Air Defense Division of the RF Armed Forces over Cape Tarkhankut.
- And the fourth was shot down on approach to Sevastopol, the missile flew over the Black Sea.
▪️ The day before yesterday, in preparation for the attack on Crimea, six NATO reconnaissance aircraft and UAVs operated as part of a comprehensive reconnaissance operation, which once again confirms the dependence between NATO activities and subsequent attacks.
▪️ The low number of missiles fired indicates that attacks may be repeated in the near future."
 
Ukrainian drone strike caused a fire in a Russian oil and gas terminal in Ust-Luga - 21.01.2024



Russian gas producer Novatek's LNG plant located next to an export terminal in the Baltic port of Ust-Luga went up in flames early on Sunday morning.
Local media sources claim the facility was a victim of a Ukrainian drone attack.
Social media footage posted overnight showed the terminal facility, which processes gas condensate into naphtha, kerosene, diesel fraction and fuel oil, engulfed in flames that lit up the night sky as far away as St Petersburg.
Russian media outlet Fontanka said that three tankers were moored in close proximity to the fire but so far there have been no reports of any damage to vessels.
Available footage suggests that the fire is raging quite a distance from where ships are moored.
 
Do we know what the flight path of these drones is? My guess is that they are launched from the sea, as it would be hard for them to cross 1000km+ of Russian territory from Ukraine undetected. The issue here is if those are NATO naval resources, in which case that would be a significant escalation. Even worse if it flew in from Estonia.
 
The Ukrainians have pulled off certain drone attack operations deep in Russian territory that likely flew over the Baltic states catching the Russians by surprise over Leningrad Oblast, for example. These sorts of attacks are predominantly media events. I think certain individual successful attacks caused some damage to Russian military infrastructure, but this is completely negligible in the grand scheme of things, especially when compared with Russian drone and missile and aviation attacks on Ukrainian military infrastructure practically every single night. Russia hits across Ukraine every day and nobody cares, but then when Ukraine pulls off one drone in Russia the media bursts into applause for Ukraine's bold and unprecedented victory.
 
Soledar - 22.01.2024
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"The situation in the Soledar direction as of 10:00 /Moscow time/ January 22, 2024

▪️ Russian troops continue the offensive operation in the Soledar direction. The main efforts are focused on gaining operational space to break into the fortified area of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the vicinity of Chasiv Yar.

Northern flank
▪️ The Russian Armed Forces managed to advance to the center of the village of Bohdanivka. Yesterday, cautious statements began to arrive about the complete liberation of the village, but the southwestern third of the village is still under enemy control.
▪️ To the west of Khromove, fighting is still ongoing in the direction of the cemetery and the Popovsky forest.

Southern flank
▪️ Krasne/Ivanivske is constantly being attacked by aviation and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces. At the same time Russian detachments are clearing the fields to the southeast of the settlement, slowly expanding the zone of control.
▪️ There are no active military operations south of Klishchiivka yet.
▪️ Near Andriivka, oncoming battles at the dam line.
▪️ Over the past weeks, near Kurdyumivka, soldiers of the Russian Armed Forces had to retreat to the railway line.

▪️ After the occupation of Bohdanivka, military operations will unfold in the Orlova tract, the village of Kalynivka and the eastern suburb of Chasiv Yar-"Kanal". Without occupying this triangle, it will not be possible to take possession of the “crossing point” that runs through the Seversky Donets - Donbass canal and the railway tracks. And without it, entrance to Chasiv Yar will be impossible.Moreover, the canal is located at tactical heights: this area will first need to be taken before moving further west."
 
Svatove - 22.01.2024
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"The situation in the Svatove sector as of 11:00 /Moscow time/ January 22, 2024

▪️ At the Svatove sector, Russian troops continue to build on their success.
▪️ After consolidating along the N-26 highway, the assault detachments of the Russian Armed Forces expanded the control zone to the north, approaching Kotlyarivka and Kyslivka from the south.
▪️ Highway N-26 leads to Petropavlivka - the gateway to eastern Kupyansk. Having begun to advance on this section of the front, Russian troops were finally able to outline a new vector of advance in the east of the Kharkov region.
▪️ The advance to the west does not stop either: there are oncoming battles near Berestove and Krokhmalne, the Ukrainian formations are trying to oust Russian troops."
 
Donetsk-Avdiivka - 22.01.2024
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"Battle for Avdiivka, situation as of 12:00 /Moscow time/ January 22, 2024

▪️ Russian troops continue to bite into the southeast of Avdiivka.
▪️ After establishing control over Tsarska Ohota, the assault detachments of the Russian Armed Forces managed to reach the Soborna Street inside Avdiivka.
▪️ On January 21, Ukrainian formations, in an attempt to regain lost lines, launched a counterattack, with up to a battalion of personnel. Having washed themselves with blood, the Russian troops held out and held the occupied lines.
▪️ Apparently, the command of the Russian group of troops expects to reach the 9th "Khimik" microdistrict from the southeast of the city in order to cut off a significant sector of the Ukrainian defenses. And if last month a similar scenario was planned to be implemented from the southwest from the direction of Opytne and Vodyane, then judging by current events, the plans have undergone changes."


Update
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"Battle for Avdiivka, situation by the end of January 22, 2024

▪️ After repelling counter-attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on positions captured by Russian troops on the south-eastern outskirts of Avdiivka, units of the Russian Armed Forces again advanced along Soborna, Sportyvna and Chernyshevskogo streets.
▪️ Judging by available footage, the Russian Armed Forces now maintain firm control over the entire southeastern outskirts of the city, and managed to cut off a small ledge to the northwest of the Tsarska Ohota recreation center.
▪️ At the same time, the forest, which is located between the base and the “Vinogradniki” garden cooperative still remains an arena of military operations, and it is still premature to declare its full occupation.
▪️ As we said earlier, most likely the goal of the Russian Armed Forces is to advance to the northwest towards the 9th "Khimik" microdistrict. The Russian Armed Forces are now consistently protecting dacha plots and residential buildings in this area and over and over again repelling counter-attacks of Ukrainian formations.
▪️ At the same time, the struggle in the Opytne sector and the fighting near the old air defense base, which was already blocked for quite some time, intensified - now the issue of cutting off this ledge and reducing the front line has become even more urgent.
▪️ At the current rate of advance, Russian troops will obviously face enormous pressure from the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which are constantly receiving reinforcements. In this sense, the battle for Avdiivka is similar to the assault on Bakhmut, where our troops were forced to repel counter-attacks by superior enemy forces over and over again.
▪️ It is extremely premature to make forecasts about how long it will take to advance to "Khimik", and to capture Avdiivka, but the successes of the Russian Armed Forces, especially confirmed by objective control, can only rejoice."
 
Looks like the Ukraine shot 3 German or US missiles that took down a Russian plane carrying a load of Ukrainian POWs, who were going to be traded back for Russian ones.

“This is a Nazi regime, nurtured by [US President Joe] Biden, [French President Emmanuel] Macron, [German Chancellor Olaf] Scholz… they must understand their responsibility,” he added, urging Western legislators to impeach the aforementioned leaders.



 

In 2022, there was a bombing of a POW facility holding Ukrainians captured during the Mariupol assault. Ukraine claimed the Russians bombed their own POW facility. Russians blamed Ukraine. There was speculation Kiev wanted them dead, as Russia claimed that many of them were far righters/neo nazis being considered for war crimes charges. Not sure how the evidence closed out that episode.

Now this, with a flight that was reportedly declared to the Ukrainians... Are they sending a message to their men - surrender and you die when we get a chance to get you?

It appears the government of Ukraine considers Ukrainian POWs held by Russians to be a threat to Ukraine. Why would that be?
 
Are they sending a message to their men - surrender and you die when we get a chance to get you?

It appears the government of Ukraine considers Ukrainian POWs held by Russians to be a threat to Ukraine. Why would that be?

I think the message is that Ukraine is run by incompetent leaders all around . (()They ))) want to wipe out a generation of young men, their own young men
 
In 2022, there was a bombing of a POW facility holding Ukrainians captured during the Mariupol assault. Ukraine claimed the Russians bombed their own POW facility. Russians blamed Ukraine. There was speculation Kiev wanted them dead, as Russia claimed that many of them were far righters/neo nazis being considered for war crimes charges. Not sure how the evidence closed out that episode.

Now this, with a flight that was reportedly declared to the Ukrainians... Are they sending a message to their men - surrender and you die when we get a chance to get you?

It appears the government of Ukraine considers Ukrainian POWs held by Russians to be a threat to Ukraine. Why would that be?
Could be a lot of things ranging from an honest mistake by the ukrainian air defense crews, all the way up to some internal ukrainian power struggle (who those ukrainian soldiers were loyal to: Zaluzhny or Zelensky ?).
 
Donetsk-Avdiivka - 26.01.2024
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"Battle for Avdiivka, situation as of 14:00 /Moscow time/ January 26, 2024

Northern flank
▪️ On the northern flank, the front line is static: both sides are mainly fighting counter-battery duels and striking with FPV drones against mobile equipment, which has reduced maneuver activity in the area to a minimum.

Southern flank
▪️ Despite the successful breakthrough of the Russian Armed Forces into the Tsarska Ohota and the breakthrough of the Ukrainian fortifications in the southeast, the main efforts of Russian Army are focused on maintaining newly occupied lines.
▪️ The Russian Armed Forces control the forests between Yasynuvata Lane and the railway, while at the same time, the dacha areas west of the railway embankment are still held by the enemy. The most violent clashes take place on Chernyshevskogo, Sportyvna and Soborna streets.
▪️ Despite the constant attacks of enemy tanks, under the cover of infantry, the Armed Forces of Ukraine failed to knock out Russian detachments from there. The Tsarska Ohota fortified area is under confident controll of the Russian Armed Forces - despite statements from the Ukrainian media.
▪️ Tanks from the 116th Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue forays into the forward positions of the Russian Army in the area of the railway embankment along Soborna Street, from their bases in the 9th "Khimik" microdistrict: to the north there is a large industrial zone along Industrial Avenue, which makes it possible for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to move equipment and people to the front line relatively unnoticed. And active counteraction to electronic warfare equipment does not allow the drones of the RF Armed Forces to fly up to a distance sufficient for observation.
▪️ Taking the "Khimik" microdistrict, built up with high-rise buildings that serve as shelters for armored vehicles, and a section of the T-05-05 highway will solve this problem. However, a head-on assault on the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this area will lead to large losses of personnel. Therefore, the most logical option would be to cut communication lanes and constantly bombard the enemy in this microdistrict."
 
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Chasiv Yar - 26.01.2024
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"Offensive on Chasiv Yar, situation as of 18:00 /Moscow time/ January 26, 2024

▪️ Against the background of the battle for the Avdiivka fortified area, the offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Chasiv Yar remaines somewhat in the shadows.

Northern flank
▪️ On the northern flank, the Russian Armed Forces have withdrawn from the center of Bohdanivka, but maintain control over the northeastern outskirts of the village. The 1st Volunteer Corps (former Wagnerites attached to Russian National Guard), 200th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade and the 98th Airborne Division are preparing to resume the assault. Russian formations methodically remove enemy strongholds with artillery, including RBU-6000 shipborne missiles against various bases, and for smaller targets: FPV drones and cannon artillery as well as Lancets are used.
▪️ If the assault detachments of the Russian Armed Forces successfully advance along the heights from the north and south of Bohdanivka, they will be able to reach the Orlova tract, through which they can secretly reach both the outskirts of Chasiv Yar and the "Kanal" microdistrict, located east of the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal. This microdistrict with high-rise buildings is located on a hill relative to the surrounding area and is key to the operation to storm the Chasiv Yar itself.

Southern flank
▪️ On the southern flank, the Russian Armed Forces were able to advance through forest belts to the outskirts of Krasne/Ivanivske.
▪️ The 68th Tank Regiment of the 150th Motor Rifle Division and the 4th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces managed to bypass the fields from the direction of Klishchiivka and gain a foothold at the intersection of Sadova and Shosseyna streets (the T-0504 highway goes into it).
▪️ In case of successful development of the attack on Krasne/Ivanivske, the adjacent heights will be taken under control (Krasne/Ivanivske itself is located in a lowland and has no tactical value) and access to the Stupki tract and the Stupki-Golubovskie-2 nature reserve will be opened."
 
Kupyansk - 27.01.2024
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"The situation in the Kupyansk direction, by the end of January 27, 2024

▪️ In the Kupyansk direction, military personnel of the “West” group of troops of the Russian Armed Forces developed their success after advancing in Krokhmalne and Berestove.
▪️ A little to the north, moving from the N-26 highway, soldiers of the Russian Armed Forces advanced to Tabaivka and were able to liberate the settlement. This was facilitated by control over the adjacent height, from which Tabaivka, located in the lowlands, is clearly visible.
▪️ In addition, it was possible to clear several strongholds of the Armed Forces of Ukraine located along the river, north and south of Tabaivka.
▪️ Ukrainian formations retreated to Pishchane/Peschanoye, where they had already equipped defensive positions and reinforcements had arrived. The main enemy positions lie north of Pishchane on a hill with a height of 190 to 199 meters, which will complicate the advance of the Russian Army further from Tabaivka.
▪️ At the same time, servicemen of the Russian Armed Forces attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Kotlyarivka. There are reports on the Internet about the liberation of this village, but so far there is no visual confirmation of this. Nevertheless, an attack on Kotlyarivka is quite logical, since moving deeper into the defenses is more promising along with the capture of Kyslivka, which is located along the railway line at a commanding height. This would also increase the pressure on Ivanivka located further north.
▪️ To the north, the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to break through to Yahidne, but the Ukrainian assault detachment on an armored personnel carrier was hit by a quadcopter, which made it possible to repel the attack in advance.
▪️ Positional clashes continue in the vicinity of Synkivka. There are practically no changes: either Ukrainian formations are shelling our strong points, or Russian fighters are the ones delivering artillery strikes."
 
Crimea - 30.01.2024
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"Raid of Ukrainian drones at Crimea. January 30, 2024

▪️ This night, for the first time in several weeks, the Armed Forces of Ukraine attempted to attack the Crimean Peninsula with drones.
In total, 11 drones were shot down and suppressed by the 31st Air Defense Division of the Russian Armed Forces over different parts of Crimea.
- The bulk of the UAVs (nine units) was destroyed in the area of the Swan Islands. Russian crews worked on drones at Portove, Rozdolne, and Botanichne. Some debris fell near populated areas, but without damaging infrastructure. One of the drones exploded in the air, probably under the influence of electronic warfare systems. Judging by the route, the Ukrainian formations were targeting the positions of the 31st Division.
- Another drone was suppressed by electronic warfare equipment on approach to Cape Tarkhankut, which is why it fell into the water.
- The 11th drone was shot down on approach to the Belbek airfield.
▪️ If we look into both the geography of the raid and the quantity of drones, then we can see the desire not to strike and inflict maximum damage, but to “probe” the defenses of the Peninsula.
▪️ And yesterday a missile alert was introduced across Crimea, which in the end was not confirmed. As a rule, this happens when the Armed Forces of Ukraine are launching decoys to open air defense systems.
▪️ Under such circumstances, new attempts at strikes against Crimea are possible in the coming days. Moreover, a new batch of SCALP cruise missiles was just delivered to Ukraine."
 
Crimea - 31.01.2024
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"Complex attack on Crimea. January 31, 2024

▪️ After a comprehensive reconnaissance operation and a drone raid, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched an attack on the Crimean Peninsula from the second half of yesterday's evening until the morning of today.
▪️ At least three Su-24M bombers from the Starokonstantinov airfield and several more Su-27 and MiG-29 fighters from the Kanatovo airfield took off in the direction of the Nikolaev region.
▪️ Having reached Bashtanka, Ukrainian fighters fired ADM-160 MALD decoy missiles, which distracted air defense systems and, at the same time, AGM-88 HARM anti-radar missiles were launched from the Kherson region at a maximum range of 150km.
▪️ After this, six Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles were fired from the Su-24M in the direction of Crimea.
- One was shot down over Krasnoperekopsk.
- Another one above Hvardiiske airfield.
- The third missile was intercepted by a Su-30 fighter 50 km northwest of Sevastopol.
- And three more on approach to Sevastopol-Belbek airfield.
▪️ After this, the Ukrainian bombers went into a second circle and fired six more cruise missiles towards the Belbek airfield. The missiles, rounding Tarkhankut, came from the sea. Three were intercepted northwest of Sevastopol, two were intercepted over the airfield, and one was intercepted directly above the ground - its debris crashed into the ground and detonated without causing damage to the runway.
▪️ At night, the attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine continued. Nine unmanned boats left Odessa and the mouth of the Danube River in the direction of Crimea.
▪️ Four of them were discovered by Russian sailors at the entrance to Lake Donuzlav. Fire was opened on them, as a result of which four drones were destroyed.
▪️ One of the drones exploded right next to the side of the boat, damaging it. There is no data on the extent of damage at this time.

Update:
Russian patrol boat was hit by more then one naval drone and sunk.


▪️ Two patrol boats, two helicopters and a fighter jet were sent to search for the four remaining drones - during the operation the unmanned boats were hit and scuttled.
▪️ As can be seen from this attack, the the Armed Forces of Ukraine clearly aimed at the airfield network on the peninsula: Dzhankoy, Hvardiiske and Belbek. Considering that Storms/Scalps have a penetrating effect, the targets of the attack were most likely control posts.
▪️ A certain change in the enemy’s tactics looks quite interesting: if earlier strikes were carried out immediately, now the Armed Forces of Ukraine deliberately delayed the launch of missiles, which is why the duration of the missile alert exceeded two hours.
▪️ Moreover, a few hours earlier, an Italian G-550 AWACS aircraft of the Italian Air Force was operating in the air off the coast of Romania, and, in addition to it, five more US and NATO reconnaissance aircraft. And the day before the raid, the air defense of Crimea was probed with drones.
▪️ And the subsequent attack by unmanned boats took place after a long break. But this again confirms the enemy’s intention to hit the Black Sea Fleet with the ultimate goal of weakening its capabilities."
 
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Two weeks ago, I posted about the Russians successfully advancing into Avdiivka proper from the south. Well now in the last couple days, we have gotten confirmation that the Russians have made a pretty significant penetration in the north as well, a larger advance than the southern one. Slowly but surely, Russia is biting off one chunk of Avdiivka after another.
 
Donetsk-Zaporozhye - 06.02.2024
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"The situation in the Vremivka sector as of 08:00 /Moscow time/ February 6, 2024

▪️ Since the end of January - beginning of February, the Russian Armed Forces have been launching attacks north of Pryyutne.
▪️ Due to the high saturation of the area with mines and FPV drones, the use of armored groups is difficult and leads to losses of equipment. Therefore, all attempts to advance are carried out by small infantry groups with the support of artillery and drones.
▪️ Currently, Russian units were able to cling to the Kutsaya Gully and ponds north of Pryyutne.
▪️ At the same time, Russian aviation, as well as howitzers and MLRS, are striking targets in Levadne, Novodarivka and Rivnopil. It is with the support from these settlements that the enemy’s defenses in the forest belts are being built in this area."
 
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