The Israel-Hamas War Lounge

Thomas More said:
Sunday is a long way away for a cease fire. Seems like both sides will want to get in as many shots as they can between now and then, and they're likely to be pissed off with each other and not want to stop when Sunday comes.

Even if not for that, I'll be surprised if the cease fire holds.
Click to expand...

Didn't take long.


Full text:
John Kirby, spokesman for the White House National Security Council, on the delay in the deal:
"There are a number of details that require clarification, but it is not true that the ceasefire agreement collapsed. We are confident that the details Netanyahu talked about will be settled and the implementation of the agreement will begin on Sunday."
Click to expand...
 
A peace deal with Israel is just a tactical halt on one field (Hamas/Gaza) so they can focus on another (I imagine Lebanon and consolidate their takings in free-play former Syria). bibi to test Trump on that one.

When Israel has achieved some success in those battles, then brought to another tactical standstill, they will be back to Gaza or on to Iran. Israel doesn't have the manpower to afford an extended, multi-front attrition war. Israel playing long game against short attention span, self-destructive Arabs, exploiting chaos and power vacuums where they appear, co-opting jihadis as they can.

I also don't think this goes thru without the impending arrival of Trump. Blinken/Biden have been a supple team - except (and to their credit) they have avoided Iran and US boots on ground. This is a concession to "too many wars" Trump, so they will want something in return. Trump, and his Iran grudge, are up next.
 
It_Is_My_Time said:
If this puts an end to the war, and I doubt that it will, that means Hamas won by surviving. Israel said their object was to eliminate Hamas, and it sounds like Hamas will survive and continue to grow in the Palestinian regions.
Click to expand...
Devil's in the details, which we know nothing about.
If for example Israel will be given the green light to annex the West Bank, then leaving the ruins of Gaza in Palestinian hands (for now) won't be that much of a price.
 


Details:

"Stages of the Deal:
○ The first phase of the agreement involves the release of 33 Israeli captives, including women, children, men over 50, and two American hostages, Keith Siegel and Sagui Dekel Chen. Additionally, the agreement includes provisions for increasing humanitarian aid to Gaza, with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasizing the need to ease the severe suffering caused by the conflict.
○ Negotiations for the second phase are set to begin 16 days into the first stage. This phase aims to secure the release of all remaining prisoners, achieve a permanent ceasefire, and facilitate the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.
○ The third phase will focus on returning all remaining bodies and initiating the reconstruction of Gaza, overseen by Egypt, Qatar, and the United Nations.

Prisoner Exchange:
○ 9 sick or wounded captives will be exchanged for 110 Palestinian prisoners sentenced to life.
○ Israel will release 1,000 prisoners arrested since 8 October 2023, excluding those involved in the events of 7 October.
○ For the release of men above the age of 50 held captive in Gaza — every 1 for 3 Palestinians sentenced to life and 1 for 27 sentenced to other provisions.
○ Dr. Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed will be released each for 30 Palestinian prisoners in addition to the 47 Shalit prisoners.
○ A number of Palestinian prisoners will be released abroad or in Gaza based on the lists agreed between the two parties.

Military Redeployment:
○ During the first phase, Israeli forces will withdraw from densely populated areas along the Gaza Strip's borders, including the Gaza Valley (Netzarim Corridor). They will redeploy to positions within 700 meters, except for five designated points where they may move up to an additional 400 meters. These locations will be determined by Israel and outlined on maps agreed upon by both parties and attached to the agreement.
○ Israeli soldiers will gradually completely withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor by the 50th day after the last captive release.

Rafah Crossing Operations:
○ The crossing will be operational based on August 2024 consultations with Egypt.
○ Israeli forces will redeploy around the Rafah crossing in alignment with the maps included in the agreement.
○ 50 wounded resistance fighters will be permitted to cross daily, each accompanied by up to three individuals, subject to approval from both Israel and Egypt.
○ All sick and wounded Palestinian civilians are allowed to cross through the Rafah crossing, in accordance with Article 12 of the 27 May 2024 agreement.

Return of Internally Displaced Palestinians:
○ On day 7, vehicles will be allowed to return north of the Netzarim Corridor after the vehicles are examined.
○ On day 22, displaced Palestinians will be allowed to return north from Salah al-Din Street without inspection."
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top