The Israel-Hamas War Lounge
- Thread starter Ember
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Former Israeli defense minister affirms IDF is committing 'ethnic cleansing' in Gaza - LifeSite
Political insider Moshe Yaalon decried Israeli crimes in Gaza, indicated ICC arrest warrant for Netanyahu should have also included hard-right ministers Ben Gvir and Smotrich, and described the polices of these individuals as ‘Mein Kampf in reverse.’
www.lifesitenews.com
Sunday is a long way away for a cease fire. Seems like both sides will want to get in as many shots as they can between now and then, and they're likely to be pissed off with each other and not want to stop when Sunday comes.
Even if not for that, I'll be surprised if the cease fire holds.
A peace deal with Israel is just a tactical halt on one field (Hamas/Gaza) so they can focus on another (I imagine Lebanon and consolidate their takings in free-play former Syria). bibi to test Trump on that one.
When Israel has achieved some success in those battles, then brought to another tactical standstill, they will be back to Gaza or on to Iran. Israel doesn't have the manpower to afford an extended, multi-front attrition war. Israel playing long game against short attention span, self-destructive Arabs, exploiting chaos and power vacuums where they appear, co-opting jihadis as they can.
I also don't think this goes thru without the impending arrival of Trump. Blinken/Biden have been a supple team - except (and to their credit) they have avoided Iran and US boots on ground. This is a concession to "too many wars" Trump, so they will want something in return. Trump, and his Iran grudge, are up next.
When Israel has achieved some success in those battles, then brought to another tactical standstill, they will be back to Gaza or on to Iran. Israel doesn't have the manpower to afford an extended, multi-front attrition war. Israel playing long game against short attention span, self-destructive Arabs, exploiting chaos and power vacuums where they appear, co-opting jihadis as they can.
I also don't think this goes thru without the impending arrival of Trump. Blinken/Biden have been a supple team - except (and to their credit) they have avoided Iran and US boots on ground. This is a concession to "too many wars" Trump, so they will want something in return. Trump, and his Iran grudge, are up next.
If this puts an end to the war, and I doubt that it will, that means Hamas won by surviving. Israel said their object was to eliminate Hamas, and it sounds like Hamas will survive and continue to grow in the Palestinian regions.
Devil's in the details, which we know nothing about.
If for example Israel will be given the green light to annex the West Bank, then leaving the ruins of Gaza in Palestinian hands (for now) won't be that much of a price.
Details:
"Stages of the Deal:
○ The first phase of the agreement involves the release of 33 Israeli captives, including women, children, men over 50, and two American hostages, Keith Siegel and Sagui Dekel Chen. Additionally, the agreement includes provisions for increasing humanitarian aid to Gaza, with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasizing the need to ease the severe suffering caused by the conflict.
○ Negotiations for the second phase are set to begin 16 days into the first stage. This phase aims to secure the release of all remaining prisoners, achieve a permanent ceasefire, and facilitate the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.
○ The third phase will focus on returning all remaining bodies and initiating the reconstruction of Gaza, overseen by Egypt, Qatar, and the United Nations.
Prisoner Exchange:
○ 9 sick or wounded captives will be exchanged for 110 Palestinian prisoners sentenced to life.
○ Israel will release 1,000 prisoners arrested since 8 October 2023, excluding those involved in the events of 7 October.
○ For the release of men above the age of 50 held captive in Gaza — every 1 for 3 Palestinians sentenced to life and 1 for 27 sentenced to other provisions.
○ Dr. Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed will be released each for 30 Palestinian prisoners in addition to the 47 Shalit prisoners.
○ A number of Palestinian prisoners will be released abroad or in Gaza based on the lists agreed between the two parties.
Military Redeployment:
○ During the first phase, Israeli forces will withdraw from densely populated areas along the Gaza Strip's borders, including the Gaza Valley (Netzarim Corridor). They will redeploy to positions within 700 meters, except for five designated points where they may move up to an additional 400 meters. These locations will be determined by Israel and outlined on maps agreed upon by both parties and attached to the agreement.
○ Israeli soldiers will gradually completely withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor by the 50th day after the last captive release.
Rafah Crossing Operations:
○ The crossing will be operational based on August 2024 consultations with Egypt.
○ Israeli forces will redeploy around the Rafah crossing in alignment with the maps included in the agreement.
○ 50 wounded resistance fighters will be permitted to cross daily, each accompanied by up to three individuals, subject to approval from both Israel and Egypt.
○ All sick and wounded Palestinian civilians are allowed to cross through the Rafah crossing, in accordance with Article 12 of the 27 May 2024 agreement.
Return of Internally Displaced Palestinians:
○ On day 7, vehicles will be allowed to return north of the Netzarim Corridor after the vehicles are examined.
○ On day 22, displaced Palestinians will be allowed to return north from Salah al-Din Street without inspection."
After a delay, during which Israel carried out strikes in Gaza, the ceasefire came into effect.
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All theater. "Ceasfire," yeah, right, if that's the official narrative then we must assume that this war is just beginning. These two groups of idiots will never stop fighting. If anything, these people are more entrenched than ever in their hatred for one another after the last year and a half of war crimes, torture, and rape (committed by both sides). Guaranteed, they are still killing each other tonight. Somebody just needed a time-out to regroup so they can start the bloodshed again tomorrow.
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Well, this looks a bitter defeat for Israel. Despite having leveled the entire city of Gaza, Hamas is stronger than ever and Israel is forced to retreat to secure the hostages they've promised to rescue 15 months ago.
The retreat from Gaza will prove to be devastating for Israel, as now Hamas has achieved victory both politically and strategically. Politically, Hamas has the entire support of Palestine, and most of the Arab world. Strategically, Hamas will now be able to use all funds given to them to "rebuild" by VASTLY expanding their tunnel network, which worked extremely well during this last siege by Israel.
Which Palestinian would want to rebuild on the surface if Israel can just bomb you? Everyone in Palestine will be committed to making an enormous underground city, which basically makes it impossible for Israel to ever root out Hamas.
From this subterrain city, Hamas will be able to stage future raids into Israel, causing havoc and destruction to repay the debt they feel Israel is owned. Should Israel invade again, they will find themselves being killed at a greater rate than before from a well prepared enemy.
I would say this entire conflict for Israel has been a total wash, however, the fall of Syria was a massive gain for Israel. So, win some lose some, and from Israel's perspective gaining Syria but losing Gaza is a great trade. They lost the battle but are still very much alive in this war.
That said, Hamas will continue to be a massive threat lurking in the shadows of Israel, and as soon as Trump is out of power the odds of another Hamas attack are quite high.
Israel still needs to develop an actual strategy other than pouring water down tunnels if they want to overcome Hamas. The pouring water down tunnels was always a joke, I called it out on day 1, Israel had no idea what they were doing if they seriously thought Hamas did not have basic mining technology. How did the Romans keep rainwater out of their mines? It's so easy to prevent tunnels from flooding with a tiny bit of engineering.
Also, despite having cut off all routes above ground into Gaza, the city was able to maintain survival for most of it's citizens for 15 months. Thus we must conclude that Hamas's tunnel networks extended into many parts of Egypt, or perhaps even Jordan, from where they could source supplies. They must have had access to something. And going forward, these underground routes will be expanded tenfold.
Hamas has a strategy that works, Israel does not, so we can expect Hamas to fully exploit their strength in the years the come. There will be 4 years of peace under Trump, because he's the peace Pres, and afterwards all hell will break loose again.
The retreat from Gaza will prove to be devastating for Israel, as now Hamas has achieved victory both politically and strategically. Politically, Hamas has the entire support of Palestine, and most of the Arab world. Strategically, Hamas will now be able to use all funds given to them to "rebuild" by VASTLY expanding their tunnel network, which worked extremely well during this last siege by Israel.
Which Palestinian would want to rebuild on the surface if Israel can just bomb you? Everyone in Palestine will be committed to making an enormous underground city, which basically makes it impossible for Israel to ever root out Hamas.
From this subterrain city, Hamas will be able to stage future raids into Israel, causing havoc and destruction to repay the debt they feel Israel is owned. Should Israel invade again, they will find themselves being killed at a greater rate than before from a well prepared enemy.
I would say this entire conflict for Israel has been a total wash, however, the fall of Syria was a massive gain for Israel. So, win some lose some, and from Israel's perspective gaining Syria but losing Gaza is a great trade. They lost the battle but are still very much alive in this war.
That said, Hamas will continue to be a massive threat lurking in the shadows of Israel, and as soon as Trump is out of power the odds of another Hamas attack are quite high.
Israel still needs to develop an actual strategy other than pouring water down tunnels if they want to overcome Hamas. The pouring water down tunnels was always a joke, I called it out on day 1, Israel had no idea what they were doing if they seriously thought Hamas did not have basic mining technology. How did the Romans keep rainwater out of their mines? It's so easy to prevent tunnels from flooding with a tiny bit of engineering.
Also, despite having cut off all routes above ground into Gaza, the city was able to maintain survival for most of it's citizens for 15 months. Thus we must conclude that Hamas's tunnel networks extended into many parts of Egypt, or perhaps even Jordan, from where they could source supplies. They must have had access to something. And going forward, these underground routes will be expanded tenfold.
Hamas has a strategy that works, Israel does not, so we can expect Hamas to fully exploit their strength in the years the come. There will be 4 years of peace under Trump, because he's the peace Pres, and afterwards all hell will break loose again.