The whole cryptic messaging and bravado coming from the Muqawama/ Resistance is starting to sound hollow.
Both Hezbollah and Iran have on more than occasion messaged that an Israeli invasion of Gaza would be a hard red line. It was followed by the usual geopolitical balancing act/ escalation-deterrence game. Israel showed its intention by turning half the Gaza strip into rubble, monitoring the (underwhelming) responses in the diplomatic arena. Hezbollah showed its seriousness by activating the Northern front and executing hit and run ATGM attacks attriting Israeli armour and ISR intel assets on the border. IRGC linked militias fired missiles and drones at US bases in the region - as a shot across the bow and not with the intention to do much damage. The US publicly signaled it stood by Israel and that HAMAS had to be destroyed.
The Israeli delay gave the US time to move its assets into position in the Eastern Mediterranean, and turn its supply change efforts towards Israel. Hezbollah/Iran promised to 'open the gates off hell' if Israel dared to enter. The US threatened Hezbollah/ Iran with a response if they'd dare to open the Northern front.
After an eventful first three weeks the dancing is about to end. Israel has invaded the Gaza Strip more than 48 hours ago and have started making headway after facing initial stiff resistance close to the border fence.
So its showdown time. There is not much wiggle room left. Either Hezbollah and Iran keep their promise, or they cuck out. Time for talking is over. They have to either put up or they shut up.
The longer it takes the more unlikely Iranian/ Hezbollah intervention becomes. Hezbollah has planned a communique/speech by Nasrallah on Friday (why so late?). We will see what will be decision on Friday.
Nasrallah will speak on Friday, November 3rd at 15:00 Beirut time.
Muslims have always had louder bark than bite.
The real escalation is from the Russians defending both Syria and Iran. If the USA or Israel pushes too hard into these places, then Russia will kill American troops. If America responds with their navy bombarding Russian positions, then Russia has subtly threatened to blow up US Aircraft carriers in the Med from the Black Sea with hypersonic missiles.
The best chance Hezbollah and Iran has is to provoke Israel enough to invade into Syria and prompt a Russian response. Then things will get insane very quickly.