The race for Syria is on. Those Russian cargos are a long term investment aimed at rebuilding trust and securing the two bases. HTS didn't spend a single dime on the oil, nor did Russia receive anything for it from third countries. These are gestures of goodwill and the next two tankers have already docked in Banyas. It's the beginning phase of creating energy dependancy - aka manufacturing a situation where HTS needs Russia to not sit in the dark with growly tummies and some very unhappy people waving guns in the streets.
Geostrategically those bases are important. Situation post Assad won't be the same though, with the strategic depth provided by the SAA gone the bases will be at the mercy of the Turks and their proxies - and Turkey is a NATO member. Russia has one big other ace to play, Jolani wants Assad's head. Assad's extradition is unlikely to happen but keep in mind that Assad and family (aside from brother Maher who left for Iran) are still in Moscow.
Russia hasn't sanctioned HTS led Syria, that won't happen either. The US and EU on the other hand still maintain their sanction regime, and try to use it as a bargaining chip to guide al Sharaa/Jolani towards certain policies and stances. HTS is getting impatient, the sanctions are crippling hence Jolani is looking elsewhere for partners. Playing Turkey of Russia of the EU of the USA of the Saudis and Qataris. Under the Trump Administration 1.0 the Caesar Act strangled the Syrian economy and it dwindled to a 12 billion USD GDP with another 5-6 billion USD revenue from the illegal captagon trade. This is what Jolani inherited.
Clawing onto slivers of Syrian territory and by extension Syrian domestic levers serves another goal. The Qatari gas pipeline that in the late 2000s was scheduled to replace Russia as Europe's main supplier is feasible again. If constructed it will run either through the Alawi mountains or cross into Turkey from the al Ghab plain. Both are next door Khmeinim hence in striking range.
The EU's outsized interest in cosying up with al Sharaa aligns with energy security. EU needs Qatari gas, just like they need Azeri, Algerian and Norwegian gas. Courtesy of the Green fools (totally a foreign funded psyop) whose ideas cemented the biggest gasfield in Europe up till 100 meters deep (Slochteren) and closed down Germany's nuclear plants. The federalization and pacification of Syria that has been in the making under the US sponsored agreements last month would be the stepping stone to the pipeline project. Obstacles exist, Turks might not be happy with it unless it runs through Turkey like TurksStream does (leverage for Erdogan) just like SDF participation in Damascusis a problem, nor will Israel abandon the idea of a DMZ south of Damascus, just like hardcore jihadist elements in HTS might be getting frustrated with Jolani 'selling out' etc.
