Actions speak louder than words. We will see what Iran does.
The Iran and Wider Middle East Thread
- Thread starter LaAguilaNegra
- Start date
Ansarallah, unlike Hezbollah, the Iraqi militias and Fatemiyoun/Zeinaboun Brigade etc is not under the control of the IRGC. Obviously they are on friendly terms though
This became clear last week during. Hamas, which has turned on Iran and is now much closer to Turkey, Syria and Qatar, did not abandon the hostage deal despite the Trump Administration's re-positioning on deals, stances and agreements.
Who did however abandon the hostage deal, even though not being part of it in the first place and who just chugged along with the outcome unsolicited is Ansarallah. Last week Ansarallah/the Houthis communicated that operations in the Red Sea would restart due to US duplicity in the deal.
Which resulted in the strange situation wherein Hamas, Israel and the US all remained dedicated to the deal but not the Houthis 2500 km away.
On March 13 Ansarallah announced it would resume the blockade of the Red Sea due to the deteriorating security situation in Gaza. Trump is sending a clear message - the days of the Biden Administration and it purposely disengaging barring cosmetic strikes which were meant to not have an effect are over.
Over 40 US strikes on Ansarallah targets yesterday, UK in a supportive role.
The White House Press released a couple of photos of Trump in an operation room wearing his own signed merch and pulling up his grandpa pants
Short videos of Tomahawk and F18 strikes, on Yemeni side at least 31 deaths have been confirmed.
The White House Press released a couple of photos of Trump in an operation room wearing his own signed merch and pulling up his grandpa pants
Short videos of Tomahawk and F18 strikes, on Yemeni side at least 31 deaths have been confirmed.
Heavy round of airstrikes in Gaza, close to 100 Gazan casualties.
Status of the ceasefire is unclear. Trump Administration backed Bibi in restarting the air campaign. Could be a pressure tool get Hamas to accept the adjusted deal. That or it's back to full on war. Reason stated is Hamas' refusal to renegotiate the hostage deal.
In addition to that Saudi media is reporting that the US sunk the Zagros reconnaissance ship in the Red Sea. The Zagros is an Iranian vessel that was used for Ansarallah target acquisition.
News about the Zagros is unconfirmed for now.
Status of the ceasefire is unclear. Trump Administration backed Bibi in restarting the air campaign. Could be a pressure tool get Hamas to accept the adjusted deal. That or it's back to full on war. Reason stated is Hamas' refusal to renegotiate the hostage deal.
In addition to that Saudi media is reporting that the US sunk the Zagros reconnaissance ship in the Red Sea. The Zagros is an Iranian vessel that was used for Ansarallah target acquisition.
News about the Zagros is unconfirmed for now.
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I pray this isn’t true,
@LaAguilaNegra Do you know what other Arab states think right now? Who do they blame for the breakdown of the ceasefire?
I don't really follow any Arab media aside from al Jazeera but I guess it's a tightrope. Palestinian cause still has a lot of sympathy amongst Arab populations, even though decreasing. However almost all Arab leaders see the Muslim Brotherhood (Hamas) as a domestic threat, are not interested in any destabilisation spilling over, are working either overtly or covertly with Israel and consider Iran and the (by now defunct) Axis of Resistance the bigger threat.
I guess this is reflected in their media. Pay lipservice to the plight of the Palestinians, don't glorify Hamas, blame Israel but leave out the growing ties between said country and Israel, and always emphasize the Shia Iranian threat.
Egypt is a perfect example. They make a lot of noise but are lowkey fine with whatever happens in Gaza as long as it doesn't hurt Sisi. Intentionally impotent. Egypt also shoots down Ansarallah missiles destined for Israel. Large pro Palestinian gatherings are banned, and Hamas/MB is a prohibited organization. Meanwhile Egyptian trade with Israel is ballooning due to the Red Sea blockade, in fact the Egyptians have refurbished several ports to cater to this growth.
Nobody should expect anything from the Arab leadership but backstabbing, infighting, turn coating, moral hypocrisy, self-enrichment and self-preseverence. Beyond the scope of ethnicity, out of 1 billion Sunnis literally only a handful have lifted a finger to stand for Gaza. 100 000+ international Sunni jihadis travelled to Syria to fight the Iranian rafidahs, 0 international Sunni jihadis traveled to the Middle East to fight Israel. Hamas isn't any better bytheway. Literally 5 minutes after HTS rolled into Damascus Hamas turned coat, ditched Iran and became buddy buddy with Jolani.
If Hamas is friendly with HTS, then why are Hezbollah having border skirmishes with HTS then?
The shia vs sunni sectarian divide. That's for starters. Next is Turkey vs Iran rivalry for regional hegemony.
In this case though, it's more about HTS being paid foreign mercs and local rif-raf who are told to fight Israel's enemies, because the divide between sunni Muslims and Israelis who are now creeping into Syria is a lot wider than their internal divide.
Hezbollah adheres to Khomeinism, Khomeinism is ideologically centered around the Palestinian cause. Road to al Qods. Fighting Israel for them is a matter of streetcred and ideological purity. Hard to turn to pragmatism when Palestine is one of the pillars the house was built on.
I agree that it looks weird from the outside. One of my fav (Axis of Resistance friendly) Twitter accounts yesterday said that both Hezb and the Houthis should just drop Hamas after the HTS turn (a betrayal that happened in 2013 as well). Just drop them and be done with it. Let the Sunni world do the heavy lifting for once.
Whole thing has a sense of sado-masochism to it. If Hezb/Ansarallah wouldn't have entered the war on October 8 Hezb would likely still be the top dawg in Lebanon, Assad would still sit in his palace in Damascus, and the Houthis would not be getting any heat right now.
Bytheway, it is highly likely the Iranian leadership did not have preliminary knowledge of October 7, 2023. Hamas acted on its own and Israel strung them along. It reads like a Greek tragedy.
I haven't watched this video, and it's probably clickbait, but if it's not, would this be bad?
You're completely off the mark here, Israel covets Lebanese land, if it wasn't for Hezbollah chasing them out, they would have already annexed part of southern Lebanon, which is rich in water. It would be the first step towards the greater Israel plan outside the borders of Palestine. Fighting Israeli colonization is a matter of survival for the majority shiite southern Lebanese, Hezbollah is their army. They also represent local Christians for that matter, whose villages Israel also covets.
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Turkish FM Fidan is currently in Washington meeting SoS Rubio, on the menu is the re-entrance of Turkey into the F35 program and greenlighting the modified F16 deal that is currently suspended.
Part of the deal will be Turkey disassembling/ handing over the S400 to the Americans. Only player able to torpedo the US-Turkey F35 deal is Israel, moreso in the light of tension in Syria.
Part of the deal will be Turkey disassembling/ handing over the S400 to the Americans. Only player able to torpedo the US-Turkey F35 deal is Israel, moreso in the light of tension in Syria.