Lounge of The Russian-Ukrainian War

[Ember]

A pause in the war requires the cooperation of the Russians, which will not be forthcoming. The war will continue, and very soon the Ukrainians will collapse from lack of manpower, and internal strife. 1500-2000 fighters are being lost every day. There are no reserves units left.
There are already widespread public demonstrations against the lack of electricity. This will increase exponentially when winter hits and the populace freezes.

 

[Samseau]

A pause in the war requires the cooperation of the Russians, which will not be forthcoming. The war will continue, and very soon the Ukrainians will collapse from lack of manpower, and internal strife. 1500-2000 fighters are being lost every day. There are no reserves units left.
There are already widespread public demonstrations against the lack of electricity. This will increase exponentially when winter hits and the populace freezes.

Russia will be given favorable ceasefire terms. Trump will reach a deal Putin finds acceptable. Then as soon as Trump is gone it's back to war:

 

[TruckDriver9]

^
While I believe in Trump's intentions to end the war. I doubt in his ability to do so - because his hands are already tied on the matter. Not long ago, Biden signed a bilateral security agreement with ukraine. This is a binding international treaty. If Trump was to ignore / override it, he will be facing impeachment. So I don't expect much change.
At best he won't draw us into a shooting war with Russia. Maybe he'll be able to limit the scale and scope of our assistance, put an end to our ISTAR activities in the Black Sea, but not much else.

 

[Ember]

Russia will be given favorable ceasefire terms. Trump will reach a deal Putin finds acceptable. Then as soon as Trump is gone it's back to war:

Russia will not accept any ceasefire that allows the Ukrainians to take a break, re-arm, replenish units with conscripts, and then restart the war in a few years time. Russia will only stop the war when the Ukrainian military is defeated and broken beyond any possible recovery, or they have unconditionally surrendered and relinquished all their arms.

They will see through the original three goals of the Special Military Operation, without a pause. They have been fooled once with Minsk, and will not be fooled again.

“Demilitarization, denazification, (and) ensuring the safety of people living in those regions that have already become Russian, protecting them from direct attacks and actually saving their lives,” Peskov told reporters on a conference call.

“In addition, in a broader sense, it is to ensure the security of the Russian Federation against the background of attempts to destroy Ukraine’s neutral status, suck it into NATO, and further drag NATO’s military infrastructure closer to our country’s borders,” added Peskov.

 

[Samseau]

Not long ago, Biden signed a bilateral security agreement with ukraine.

Was it passed by Congress? I'm not sure it would result in impeachment.

Russia will not accept any ceasefire that allows the Ukrainians to take a break, re-arm, replenish units with conscripts, and then restart the war in a few years time.

There is no feasible way for Russia to prevent this. Trump could easily agree to a complete ceasefire and degrading of the Ukrainian military. All that would happen is for Ukraine to train troops and forces in Poland, and there would be nothing Russia could do to stop it. Also, it won't be just Ukrainian troops who are trained, but Polish, German, and other Euros as well.

 

[TruckDriver9]

Was it passed by Congress?

I don't think so.

I'm not sure it would result in impeachment.

And what happened when Trump just threatened ukraine with witholding funds ? And it was before the war.
I think Trump could question the legality of the US-ukraine security deal, on the grounds of Zelensky's illegitimacy, since his presidential term was already over when he signed the deal. But would that be enough ?

 

[Ember]

There is no feasible way for Russia to prevent this. Trump could easily agree to a complete ceasefire and degrading of the Ukrainian military. All that would happen is for Ukraine to train troops and forces in Poland, and there would be nothing Russia could do to stop it. Also, it won't be just Ukrainian troops who are trained, but Polish, German, and other Euros as well.

Russia prevents this by continuing the war and defeating Ukraine. If the terms are unacceptable, which they will be, Russia will refuse a ceasefire. A collapse could quite possibly happen this year. NATO has no way to prevent this.
They are out of arms to send. Western inventories have been stripped bare.
Western arms production is wholly inadequate and lags far behind Russia. Those that are produced will be used to replenish the bare inventories.
Western nations have already ruled out boots on the ground, and the training of Ukrainians abroad is a pipe-dream. Ukraine is losing 1500-2000 soldiers a day, no chance of replacing that.
The Ukies abroad will not be rounded up without a big fight, at the most, they will get a few thousand, enough for a week of combat losses.

 

[Samseau]

Russia prevents this by continuing the war and defeating Ukraine.

So Russia has to occupy the entirety of Ukriane? You actually think Putin wants to do that? Because that would be the only way to prevent what I've described.

And what happened when Trump just threatened ukraine with witholding funds ?

What happened was that Trump wasn't impeached. He was tried, and it failed.

 

[Ember]

So Russia has to occupy the entirety of Ukriane? You actually think Putin wants to do that? Because that would be the only way to prevent what I've described.

I did not say that, and I know it is not true. The goal of the SMO is to demilitarize Ukraine. If the West invades Ukraine, Russia will destroy those forces. This has been repeatedly stated by Russia.

It is my belief that Russia will capture enough territory to ensure the safety of the Russian Federation, including the Donbass, from a NATO attack. This means demilitarizing the rest of Ukraine.
Russia may reach a deal with Poland where the small Lvov Western region is handed over to their administration. But NATO will probably not be allowed onto it.

Russia may have to go beyond the Dnieper to complete the demilitarization. If Ukraine surrenders and voluntarily disarms all units, then perhaps they will not have to go that far in force. But any unauthorized attempt by NATO to move in will be met with an extreme response. Expect Belarus to make a move from the North, as well.

 

[TruckDriver9]

What happened was that Trump wasn't impeached. He was tried, and it failed.

And yet he was forced to continue financing ukraine, without anything (Burisma-Biden corruption investigation) in return.

 

[scary_robot_music]

A pause in the war requires the cooperation of the Russians, which will not be forthcoming. The war will continue, and very soon the Ukrainians will collapse from lack of manpower, and internal strife. 1500-2000 fighters are being lost every day. There are no reserves units left.
There are already widespread public demonstrations against the lack of electricity. This will increase exponentially when winter hits and the populace freezes.

Where are you getting that 1,500 to 2,000 casualties for Ukraine a day figure? Not saying you're wrong (I would have no idea what the real number is) but it seems very high and my understanding is that both sides keep their true casualty figures classified while exaggerating the enemy's. I assume your figure includes both KIA and wounded? I agree that this isn't sustainable for Ukraine, regardless of whether it's really <1.5k a day like you say. I've never believed Ukraine will win this war in any meaningful way and imagine that at best the Ukrainians will be reduced to running a very bloody insurgency like they did against the USSR in the late 1940s and early 1950s.

By the way, what's your figure for daily KIA and wounded among Russian troops?

 

[Ember]

Where are you getting that 1,500 to 2,000 casualties for Ukraine a day figure? Not saying you're wrong (I would have no idea what the real number is) but it seems very high and my understanding is that both sides keep their true casualty figures classified while exaggerating the enemy's. I assume your figure includes both KIA and wounded? I agree that this isn't sustainable for Ukraine, regardless of whether it's really <1.5k a day like you say. I've never believed Ukraine will win this war in any meaningful way and imagine that at best the Ukrainians will be reduced to running a very bloody insurgency like they did against the USSR in the late 1940s and early 1950s.

By the way, what's your figure for daily KIA and wounded among Russian troops?

The figures come from the Russian MOD and are combined KIA/wounded. You are of course entitled to be sceptical of their veracity. I however believe that the Russians do make a big effort to release accurate data. They get their figures mainly from intercepts of Ukrainian communications.

The main place I get my updates from are the Alexander Mercouris daily programs on Youtube, and the Military Summary channel, also on YouTube. Alexander frequently discusses the casualty figures and their trustworthiness. His assessment is that the Russians are way more truthful than the Ukies.

 

[TruckDriver9]

Where are you getting that 1,500 to 2,000 casualties for Ukraine a day figure?

I can vaguely recall, someone from the ukrainian side talking how they need to recruit 30k soldiers a month to keep the frontline troops at fighting strength. Divide it by 30 days in a month and You'll get 1000 permanent (killed, crippled, captured) loses a day, add to it temporary (wounded that can recover) loses, and 2000 total loses (for example 500 killed, 500 crippled and 1000 injured but recoverable) a day doesn't seem that far fetched. Of course that's just a rough estimate, nothing more than an educated guess.

 

[Samseau]

Russia may have to go beyond the Dnieper to complete the demilitarization.

I just don't see Putin being willing to do that. Too risky for him. If given the chance for a ceasefire, so he can give Russia a breather from war, I think Putin is the kind of guy to take it. He's a long-term thinker, and going slower works better for Russia.

But we will see!

 

[Pointy Elbows]

Medvedev confirming SMO goals are still in effect. I don't know much of Russian internal politics, but I think Putin has greater hard-liner pressure than he has peacenik opposition.

Whoever the next US President is, he's going to have to come to terms with this reality also. Putin doesn't intend to back down, and he might not be able to compromise goals without getting some Machiavellian reality from within. Trump is smart enough to learn this, but is he humble enough to learn it?

 

[Ember]

I just don't see Putin being willing to do that. Too risky for him. If given the chance for a ceasefire, so he can give Russia a breather from war, I think Putin is the kind of guy to take it. He's a long-term thinker, and going slower works better for Russia.

Being a long-term thinker, as you say, precludes Putin from allowing Ukraine to take a break, re-arm, replenish ranks with new conscripts, and continue the war at a later date. The advantage is currently held by Russia, and a ceasefire would throw that away.

The pressure has to be kept up on the Ukrainians, they are close to breaking. The pace has been careful and methodical to maximize the attrition ratio in the Russian's favour. They have several hundred thousand troops in reserve, that can be rotated in at any time it is felt necessary.

A ceasefire now, would be a catastrophe for Russia, and the people surrounding Putin would be furious that their imminent victory had been thrown away. He would not survive it.

 

[Caduceus]

 

[Pointy Elbows]

Fractional in-fighting amongst Ukrainian nationalist types:

A Ukrainian nationalist politician, Iryna Farion, was assassinated in Lviv recently by an 18 year old with neo-nazi ties of his own. Apparently, Farion had disparaged Russian speaking Azov types by implying they were less loyal to the Kiev regime.



Russians with Attitude has a short explanation of ethnic rivalry within the nationalist movement:





This is the nitty-gritty of Ukrainian/Galician nationalism and anti-Rus sentiment directed at eastern Ukrainian Azovites:

From RWA: "It's really funny to me that Farion (who said that Russian-speaking Azov soldiers are potential traitors) was killed by Azov-aligned guys who are butthurt over the fact that OG Galician Banderites still consider their Kharkov-born asses subhuman"

 

[TruckDriver9]

The largest prisoner swap, between Russia and west, since the cold war is happening today.

 

[Caduceus]

The largest prisoner swap, between Russia and west, since the cold war is happening today.

Considering the Russians only got only 8 prisoners back, versus the 16 westerners they released, it would seem like an unfair deal unless the globohomo west paid Russia some serious extra money (or promised some other amazing concessions) to make up for the shortfall.