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Lounge of The Russian-Ukrainian War

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Cooper said:
In order for Ukraine to become a big Israel, you have to depopulate the natives, and they're doing a great job at this. Ukraine is down to less than 20 million people, nearly half of what they had a couple of decades ago.
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This is irrelevant if Russia, Poland, Hungary and Romania carve up the country up like a big turkey at the end of the war.

Russia will probably claim everything up to (and including) eastern Moldova and the entire black sea coast, and the other countries will take the western regions. No one wants to say it openly (not even Putin) but this is what will probably happen in the end.

Map of a possible Ukrainian partition after the war.

Red = to Russia
Blue = to Poland
Green = to Hungary
Yellow = to Romania

putin_s_polish_partition_plan_by_lehnaru_d83pnd1-fullview.jpg





An alternate partition scenario would still entail all neighbouring countries getting a piece of the Ukrainian carcass, but would leave a neutral and demilitarised leftover "rump state" of Ukraine in the middle as a buffer zone between Russia and globohomo. However I see this 2nd partition scenario as less likely, as east/west conflicts over the new "mini Ukraine" would continue.


08b3d7f5f4b42e72ab86098b36350cd421251e1a.jpg
 
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Ember said:
Most of the mappers get their info on Russian advances from geolocating the drone footage that the Ukrainians upload, featuring their strikes on Russian units. Military Summary channel has said that following the debate, a whole load of footage was uploaded that was being held back. This footage makes clear that the Russians are making significant gains all across the front lines.
The US camp that ordered the withholding of the videos was obviously not in on the plan to set up Biden to fail at the debates.
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True that, but also I haven't had the time to upload map updates.
Gonna post some later today, I'll probably skip the least active sectors and update only the most important Donetsk ank Toretsk areas to avoid floodposting.
 
Samseau said:

Zelensky: We Don't Have a Lot of Time - News From Antiwar.com

Speaking to journalists in Brussels on Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned “We don't have much time. We have a lot of injured, killed, both military and civilians. So we do not want this war to last for years. Therefore, we have to prepare this plan and put it on…
news.antiwar.com news.antiwar.com

Looks like Zelensky is starting to sweat:



This statement was released right after the debates, which means Zelensky is trying to cover his rear if Trump does actually win.

And that is the real problem, a Trump victory is more damaging to Ukraine than another Russian offensive. Without the easy money Ukraine has no chance.

Of course, a Trump victory is probably only 4 years of peace. As soon as a Democrat gets in, it will resume war with Russia.

However, even 1 year of peace is deadly to someone like Zelensky. He's a puppet with no use in peacetime, which means he will be discarded like a trash bag. He needs to think of an escape plan because he has a lot of enemies. Hence, calling for the war to end.
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Looks to me like a PR salvage attempt, after the failure of the Swiss summit.
No prominent politicians/diplomats from outside of the trans-Atlantic community showed up. And Putin, preemptively, dropped his own proposition of a ceasefire agreement, which only highlighted the hypocrisy of the west: when they were repeating their lines about unwavering support for ukraine until the 91 borders are restored, Putin showed his willingness to negotiate. This had an impact on the summit, global south leaders like the president of Colombia withdrew their support for the summit, because it didn't offer any way to end the war, but instead sought only to prolong it.
This was Zelensky's personnal failure, after all his global recognition and showmanship are his only qualities. If he can't put on a show, what good is he for?
 
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Caduceus said:
This is irrelevant if Russia, Poland, Hungary and Romania carve up the country up like a big turkey at the end of the war.

Russia will probably claim everything up to (and including) eastern Moldova and the entire black sea coast, and the other countries will take the western regions. No one wants to say it openly (not even Putin) but this is what will probably happen in the end.

Map of a possible Ukrainian partition after the war.

Red = to Russia
Blue = to Poland
Green = to Hungary
Yellow = to Romania
Click to expand...
The main question I have with these partition predictions are whether Russia would ever allow Poland to be rewarded for its insane pro-NATO acts. Poland is perhaps more hostile to Russia than any country after the US and UK. And they are oddly eager to host western nuclear weapons in their country ( I guess they are paid handsomely for this? Because it seems suicidal!)

Also, historically, it is very rare for a country to benefit from territorial gains unless it has made considerable sacrifices in war. So I have difficulty envisioning Poland benefitting from its hostile actions like training F16 pilots and eagerly hosting western NATO shills.

I could see the Russia/Hungary/Romania partition with the blue sector remaining a rump state for hardcore Ukrainian Azov nationalists (that would actually be a brilliant gift by Russia to put Banderite Nazis on the Polish border) or perhaps cede it to Hungary or some other nation that aids Russia (my inner Harry Turtledove wants to imagine it as a North Korean colony hahaha).

But I think at this point we can say Odessa goes to the Russians. Stupid strategic moves by the west have now almost guaranteed that.
 
Rax Moscow said:
The main question I have with these partition predictions are whether Russia would ever allow Poland to be rewarded for its insane pro-NATO acts. Poland is perhaps more hostile to Russia than any country after the US and UK. And they are oddly eager to host western nuclear weapons in their country ( I guess they are paid handsomely for this? Because it seems suicidal!)

Also, historically, it is very rare for a country to benefit from territorial gains unless it has made considerable sacrifices in war. So I have difficulty envisioning Poland benefitting from its hostile actions like training F16 pilots and eagerly hosting western NATO shills.

I could see the Russia/Hungary/Romania partition with the blue sector remaining a rump state for hardcore Ukrainian Azov nationalists (that would actually be a brilliant gift by Russia to put Banderite Nazis on the Polish border) or perhaps cede it to Hungary or some other nation that aids Russia (my inner Harry Turtledove wants to imagine it as a North Korean colony hahaha).

But I think at this point we can say Odessa goes to the Russians. Stupid strategic moves by the west have now almost guaranteed that.
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The Russians could allow Poland to annex western Ukraine as this would be a poison pill.
 
^ I think Lavrov told the US Ambassador this week "we are not at peace."

We may need a "suspected sabotage/covert ops" thread here soon. Things like this and the North Carolina incident with the Delta Force Colonel shooting a Chechnyan "immigrant utility worker" at his off-post residence are starting to add up.

On another note, Simplicious posted about this Ukrainian soldier this week:



It is simply an axiom of war - senior commanders absolutely cannot/refuse to objectively assess the capabilities of subordinate personnel. Fantastic tasks are created, which are designed either for space marines, or for at least fresh units packed with 20-year-old sports equipment and equipment. That these people are physically and psychologically battered by the years of the Great War, that there is a total lack of means and ammunition to support the infantry - all this is stupidly ignored. And the commanders who voice these things, instead of stupidly trumping - are ostracized, ridiculed as weaklings and snots. As a result of such short-sightedness/stupidity/criminal negligence, fantastic tasks are not completed, people die, fall out of control, and when appetites decrease and it comes to realistic tasks, no one can complete them. And domino farts further

----------------------------------------------------

2 years and unknown amounts of casualties have taken their toll on the Ukrainian Army. Every engagement is a probability of kill equation and eventually your number is up. Those that live more than 6 months at the front are promoted of necessity as much as skill. Some leaders are skillful, some are just able to manage to get to the safe post and savvy enough to stay there. The bravest are probably dead by now, even if they were skillful.

Much as the US tried to "train and equip" Ukraine, it is a decades long institutional-level task to run such a large force properly. Ukraine simply doesn't have the depth, tough or brave as they are. I suspect there is major in-unit replacement with new troops, whilst the most experienced and sometimes cowardly of officers have managed to move up to field grade command posts and are less subject to the heavy pounding their front-line troops get. These are the guys that dream up 'fantastic tasks" to keep their bosses excited. 40 year old grunts with 30 days of training can't do "fantastic tasks," creating the conditions where the command post either lies or hides their losses, whilst dreaming up more "fantastic tasks" to save the day tomorrow.

Doug Macgregor reported this week that he's been told Ukraine has had 600k KIA and 1M+ wounded. Contrast that to MSM reports of only 50k KIA. If Macgregor's sources are right, the AFU have to be running on fumes now.
 
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