Lounge of The Russian-Ukrainian War

This almost belongs in the Geopolitics thread, but the immediate connection is the French warmongering against Russia. History Legends did a fantastic video going into the French struggles in Africa and how Russia and China are winning on the diplomatic front, while the US and France are (literally) retreating.



While the UK lost basically ALL its overseas possessions (they still control the Falklands, Gibraltar and a few others), France has held on to many colonies, even if it has given them de jure "independence." It still controls many overseas possessions, and HL goes into detail on the history in New Caledonia, Burkina Faso, Niger, and others. France's history with Algeria is one that has always baffled me, as it seems to have caused so many negatives for the French, and I can't see why the French leaders pursued it for so long. But I would say that France still has the most effective system of colonization today (US gives them a run for the money).

Anyway, the outsized wealth of US / Western Europe is due in large part to economic control over global assets. That was curtailed heavily in the 1960s, with the western countries opting for a more "Confessions of an Economic Hitman" type model of indirect and financial control as they gave up direct control and decolonized, granting the nations independence.

That new system is now being upended as well. And due to the idiotic moves by the US, the ability to use the dollar and the IMF to force the hand of these foreign nations is heavily weakened.

New Caledonia has over 10% of the world's nickel reserves, vital for stainless steel production, among other uses.




US / French influence in this region will be gone within a decade (with perhaps a holdout or two--the US has actually been able to reverse things in the Philippines which is now falling back into being a tool of America), and it is very certain that the Chinese belt and road strategy, and/or the Russian mutual assistance and traditional diplomatic models will succeed. (In contrast the head of NATO Jan Stoltenberg has stated that one goal of NATO is spreading gayness, which Africans are not so keen on).

Putin has made it very clear that if the west keeps arming Ukraine, he can arm places like New Caledonia. I honestly think the American leaders, at least, are too stupid to understand the threat (he did not mention New Caledonia by name, and I think they won't "get it" until they see the Caledonians using the weapons and physically pushing out the French!)

Finally this probably deserves its own thread but Macron has called for elections, and many outlets fear he will be ousted, replaced by a "far right" candidate.


There is a good chance that we may finally see things start to change on the global level. I suppose one could say that already happened with the US losses in the mideast wars, but the US also lost Vietnam, so nothing new there. This is going to fundamentally change the global economic system, and is another hit accelerating the decline of the petrodollar.
 
We need to look out for who ends up owning these assets.

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Ukraine plans to sell state assets to help finance war effort - The New York Times“The government plans to auction about 20 state-owned companies, including the Ukraine Hotel, a shopping center in Kiev, and mining and chemical enterprises“Officials acknowledge that assets will be sold cheaper than before the conflict, but hope to create new jobs, tax revenues and attract investment.-> Ukraine goes to the highest bidder.

 
We need to look out for who ends up owning these assets.

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Ukraine plans to sell state assets to help finance war effort - The New York Times“The government plans to auction about 20 state-owned companies, including the Ukraine Hotel, a shopping center in Kiev, and mining and chemical enterprises“Officials acknowledge that assets will be sold cheaper than before the conflict, but hope to create new jobs, tax revenues and attract investment.-> Ukraine goes to the highest bidder.

Who is going to buy an asset that may be blown up or confiscated by the Russian army as soon as it attacks or conquers the relative territory it's in ??
 
Who is going to buy an asset that may be blown up or confiscated by the Russian army as soon as it attacks or conquers the relative territory it's in ??
Yes, western interests (and the .com/.gov alliance) are being tested also. The whole country has had a bad case of jewish lightning the last 2 years.

Such sales have been going on a while, but this looks like a big increase in assets on the block:


RVF2 had some discussion about the privatization of public assets and how it centralizes the commonwealth of a country in a few people. Not that I'm all for collectivization, but there's an honest and dishonest angle to such matters.

Blackrock and Vanguard will be asked to step up to the table and bet on Zelensky's new "Greater Israel." I wouldn't be surprised if Russia zaps these places at some point.
 
Who is going to buy an asset that may be blown up or confiscated by the Russian army as soon as it attacks or conquers the relative territory it's in ??
Blackrock. Hell, Blackrock made a bunch of bad investments, lost their butts when covid hit, and then the govt. (under Trump) bailed them out to the tune of $5 trillion.

Meaning, it doesn't matter who is in office, if Blackrock buys these things and then Russia blows it all up, the taxpayers will bail them out again.
 
I don't know much about jet engines, but brief googling shows the Toloue-10 motor is very large & has huge thrust power. With a payload that size, it's highly profitable to try to shoot it down & there's high probability of success. This dynamic favors the defense, which is why I don't think anyone in this war will consistently be able to deliver large payloads.

In the video I linked, they're using jet engines like these, which only weigh 1.5kg & cost 1.5-2k us, it's much smaller than the Toloue. Right now in the US, the high Hz thermal sensors required for heat seeking tech is minimum 4-5K us via flir. It's unprofitable to use anything heat seeking to take it down, the defense costs more than the bomb. It'd be a short range weapon like FPV drone but it favors the offense & near impossible to stop.

We're also seeing electric powered jet engines in development, which would further change things.
Smaller engines will affect flight endurance and limit the loitering capabilities, making those drones a cheaper substitute of NLOS missiles, not proper
loitering munitions.
 
From the various public sources I read, they've only gotten switchblade 300. The 300 isn't much better than a cheap FPV. They didn't get that many 300s either.

The switchblade 600 is classified, but it's rumored to operate like the lancets, flying in groups of 2 & 3 acting as a relay to a control center, significantly increasing the range & improving the safety of the operating crew. Pentagon won't confirm/deny if Ukraine gets the 600s.
They received both:




Russia's top performing weapon as per their MoD is the Lancet. Ukraine never got the US version of the lancet, the most recent Switchblade, that would have a huge impact for them.

Getting the US version of this would also have a huge impact for Ukraine.

There's actually quite a bit of EW/radar systems I don't think Ukraine has gotten.

Realistically, they're not going to get this stuff from the US, it's arguably as valuable as nuclear tech. Even the Russians are highly selective in it's use. Don't be surprised though if Ukraine develops their own versions, it'll be ugly, half working, low quality stuff like their drones but when it does work...
Nitpicking whether ukraine received every single item from US stocks or just the majority of them is secondary. The point is that, the narrative about ukraine being able to win any day now if we just increase the deliveries is false. The pace of deliveries depends on our manufacturing capabilities and the training schedule of ukrainian troops.
 
Fire erupts in a weapons factory in Poland.
Mesko produces a wide range of weapons and ammunition, including shoulder-fired air defense missiles, portable anti-tank and anti-personnel missiles and small arms ammunition. Some of the systems made by Mesko are among the weapons Poland has sent to Ukraine to help the neighboring country as it battles to fend off Russia's ongoing invasion

Turns out, this Polish company "Mesko" was picked to produce GMLRS missiles.
A Lockheed Martin spokesperson told Defense News during a briefing in Warsaw that the missiles could undergo production at Mesko, a subsidiary of PGZ, the nation’s state-run defense giant. The U.S. company is currently holding talks with Polish officials.
“Under the Homar-A program, we plan to locate production of GMLRS [guided multiple-launch rocket system] ammunition in Poland with the phased introduction of two GMLRS variants initially to meet the needs of the Polish Armed Forces. Initial production, likely to be from kit sets provided from the U.S., could begin in 2026”
 
Smaller engines will affect flight endurance and limit the loitering capabilities, making those drones a cheaper substitute of NLOS missiles, not proper
loitering munitions.
Loitering is easy, strap quadcopter motors on it for VTOL & there's the loitering capabilities, loitering wouldn't be the point of that though.

Switchblade 600 continue to underperform against Russian EW, this one was grounded.

I'm not so sure about that... impressive footage of a Switchblade 600 taking out a Russian sam that appears to have been leaked yesterday.

According to commenters there Ukrainians have recently had the 600's but they're not allowed to post video of them.

Nitpicking whether ukraine received every single item from US stocks or just the majority of them is secondary. The point is that, the narrative about ukraine being able to win any day now if we just increase the deliveries is false. The pace of deliveries depends on our manufacturing capabilities and the training schedule of ukrainian troops.

I don't disagree with you.

My point is that, unlike in the early days, I don't think Ukraine's success is dependent on what the US will & won't give them. If they keep progressing at this rate, they're going to be able to develop their own ew/air defense etc & not need a lot of outside help. If you want I can post some links, but there are startups in kiev & lviv that are showing some serious technical capabilities, comporable to Raytheon, Boeing, etc.

Russia now has a (at least) a million man army rapidly approaching technical parity sitting on it's border.
 
If you want I can post some links, but there are startups in kiev & lviv that are showing some serious technical capabilities, comporable to Raytheon, Boeing, etc.

All of these places will be blown sky-high when complete. Total waste of money.

Russia now has a (at least) a million man army rapidly approaching technical parity sitting on it's border.

Ukraine has whatever we give them, which would explain their parity.
 


Full text
Victoria Gonchar was a doctor held in the military recruitment centre in Odessa, she explains what actually happened.

The military recruiters snatched and beat a man, but he called an ambulance.

When the emergency crew arrived the military recruiters held them and wanted them to sign some papers, so that the military will not get into trouble.
...
“Ukraine is following the path it has chosen: democratically, in freedom, in Europe.”

-> Military in Ukraine just kidnapped ambulance crews to mobilize them.

Very free Olav
 
This article is worth a read, it is focused mainly on the European refugee crisis but I think it is probably just as applicable to America. The author suspects and makes a strong case that immigration is being using as a form as hybrid warfare by Russia to divide and bankrupt the West. I've been diving down this rabbit hole for the past 7 months or so and it paints the whole Ukraine war in an entirely different light.

https://jrnyquist.blog/2024/06/12/russian-strategy-and-europes-refugee-crisis-2/
 
This article is worth a read, it is focused mainly on the European refugee crisis but I think it is probably just as applicable to America. The author suspects and makes a strong case that immigration is being using as a form as hybrid warfare by Russia to divide and bankrupt the West. I've been diving down this rabbit hole for the past 7 months or so and it paints the whole Ukraine war in an entirely different light.

https://jrnyquist.blog/2024/06/12/russian-strategy-and-europes-refugee-crisis-2/

Certainly, it is in Russia's interest to exacerbate the illegal invasions, both in Europe and America, but, Russia is not at the (((source))) of it all. Russia is merely trying to force-feed the great Satan in order to kill it before it destroys everything.
 
Loitering is easy, strap quadcopter motors on it for VTOL & there's the loitering capabilities, loitering wouldn't be the point of that though.



I'm not so sure about that... impressive footage of a Switchblade 600 taking out a Russian sam that appears to have been leaked yesterday.

According to commenters there Ukrainians have recently had the 600's but they're not allowed to post video of them.
Pretty hilarious that a switchblade video dropped just when we talked about them.
Assuming it's legit, it would be a first switchblade strike this year, compared with 302 confirmed Lancet strikes in May (all Lancet videos are available on lostarmour - it's in Russian, but managable to watch the clips even without the language) it seems like an exception that proves the rule, rather than anything else.

I don't disagree with you.

My point is that, unlike in the early days, I don't think Ukraine's success is dependent on what the US will & won't give them. If they keep progressing at this rate, they're going to be able to develop their own ew/air defense etc & not need a lot of outside help. If you want I can post some links, but there are startups in kiev & lviv that are showing some serious technical capabilities, comporable to Raytheon, Boeing, etc.
Russia now has a (at least) a million man army rapidly approaching technical parity sitting on it's border.

Strongly disagree. Without western assistance, ukraine wouldn't be able to survive a month. We give them anything and everything: from small arms and munitions, through mech/armor, comms, ISTAR, all the way to long range strike capabilities. And it's not just the material support alone, we provide them with expert assistance: logistics, intel analysis, "advisors" on the ground. We even pay the wages for their soldiers. So nope, I do not believe that ukraine is able to do anything on its own. And I doubt in their weapons making capabilities, a drone assembly plant is one thing - whether it's an unmanned boat or a long range kamikaze UAV, it can be made in guerilla conditions in an underground parking lot - but to manufacture advanced weapon systems, like air defense, an industrial base is necessary - and ukraine doesn't even have an industrial base to manufacture simple artillery shells.
 
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This article is worth a read, it is focused mainly on the European refugee crisis but I think it is probably just as applicable to America. The author suspects and makes a strong case that immigration is being using as a form as hybrid warfare by Russia to divide and bankrupt the West. I've been diving down this rabbit hole for the past 7 months or so and it paints the whole Ukraine war in an entirely different light.

https://jrnyquist.blog/2024/06/12/russian-strategy-and-europes-refugee-crisis-2/
More suited for the: "barbarian invasion of Europe" thread. And it ignores the timeline of events - it was the west that started to meddle in Russian affairs: NATO expansion, colour revolutions, maidan coup, etc. Russia responding with migrant swarms sure is an ugly business, but it seems an appropriate answer to the destabilization attempts that we make.
 
More suited for the: "barbarian invasion of Europe" thread. And it ignores the timeline of events - it was the west that started to meddle in Russian affairs: NATO expansion, colour revolutions, maidan coup, etc. Russia responding with migrant swarms sure is an ugly business, but it seems an appropriate answer to the destabilization attempts that we make.
Forgive me for putting it in the wrong thread.

Why should NATO not expand? Maybe you will talk about the biolabs on the border of Russia. In truth, these were former Soviet biolabs that America decided to foot the bill for instead of let a bunch of biological weapons scientists loose on the open market. I bought this line at first myself about aggressive NATO expansion, but Russia are the ones invading a country, not the other way around. Why shouldn't smaller nations in the area be allowed to join a defensive alliance for their personal protection?

Colour revolutions? If you read the article, it indicates different responsibility for meddling in colour revolutions. Screenshot from 2024-06-14 17-18-15.png

Maidan coup? What makes you think the West was meddling with this? How many CIA or Mi6 agents are capable of speaking Ukrainian... maybe dozens? How many FSB agents are capable of speaking Ukrainian...?

You lot are just as against the West as the self-hating anti-white leftists. Is that not ironic? Or strange? Utterly bizarre? You have a kneejerk reaction where you just assume the West is to blame.

@Samseau
Why would the Jews flood the West with Muslims? How is that logical? In blaming the Jews for immigration, how many borders have closed? What if you are wrong?

For example, take Jeffrey Epstein, notorious blackmailer of Western elites. We all assume he was working for Mossad. But all 4 of his grandparents lived in Russia. Everyone overlooks that.

Is Putin himself not ethnically Jewish? Why does he get a pass? I don't know. I guess flooding Western nations with immigrants is fine if Putin is doing it.
 
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