Lounge of The Russian-Ukrainian War
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The Russians have broken through Ukrainian lines and made it to the center of Avdeevka from the north-east and are hundreds of meters away from physically cutting the only supply road to the southern part of Avdeevka.
It looks like Avdeevka will fall in the next few days at this rate. Russian advances in the last couple of days have been very fast after several months of slow progress. Zelensky will likely blame Zaluzhny for the fall of Avdeevka.
It looks like Avdeevka will fall in the next few days at this rate. Russian advances in the last couple of days have been very fast after several months of slow progress. Zelensky will likely blame Zaluzhny for the fall of Avdeevka.
Right now the Russian sphere is abuzz with reports of the Ukrainians beginning to withdraw from Avdiivka. My guess is that it's more of a gradual fighting retreat than a full-on withdrawal, and that the battle will go on for at least another week for the city, and then some more time after that for the Ukrainian Coke Plant industrial stronghold north of the city. In any case though, the Russians have continued advancing in the north of the city for the last couple days and it is now clear that Russia will win the Battle of Avdiivka.
This isn't quite on the level of the Bakhmut meat grinder, but it is still towards the top of the bloodiest battles of this war. But while Bakhmut was deliberately intended by the Russians to be a "blood-pump" bleeding out the Ukrainians for a city that wasn't all too strategic in and of itself, the city of Avdiivka actually has substantial operational importance in its own right. This will be a major Russian victory.
Looking at the map, I predict after Avdiivka Russia will keep its focus in that general region. They will finish off the Donetsk suburbs campaign with the capture of Krasnohorovka and will take Ugledar advancing south from the Marinka area. There will always be actions on other fronts but I think Russia will ultimately win from the south.
This isn't quite on the level of the Bakhmut meat grinder, but it is still towards the top of the bloodiest battles of this war. But while Bakhmut was deliberately intended by the Russians to be a "blood-pump" bleeding out the Ukrainians for a city that wasn't all too strategic in and of itself, the city of Avdiivka actually has substantial operational importance in its own right. This will be a major Russian victory.
Looking at the map, I predict after Avdiivka Russia will keep its focus in that general region. They will finish off the Donetsk suburbs campaign with the capture of Krasnohorovka and will take Ugledar advancing south from the Marinka area. There will always be actions on other fronts but I think Russia will ultimately win from the south.
Zelensky has removed Zaluzhny and replaced him with Syrsky as commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
This is a gift for the Russians. Syrsky is a butcher who is extremely aggressive and constantly sends his men to be slaughtered on hopeless meat assaults.
Apparently, he is very unpopular with his own troops and they even call him Commander 200 (200 being the radio code for killed, 300 for wounded). He is also Russian-his only connection to Ukraine is that he was stationned there in 1991 when the Soviet Union fell. His troops also call him the Russian butcher.
This will accelerate Ukraine's defeat. Zaluzhny exercized more caution and wanted to pull back from both Bakhmut and Avdeevka early on.
This is a gift for the Russians. Syrsky is a butcher who is extremely aggressive and constantly sends his men to be slaughtered on hopeless meat assaults.
Apparently, he is very unpopular with his own troops and they even call him Commander 200 (200 being the radio code for killed, 300 for wounded). He is also Russian-his only connection to Ukraine is that he was stationned there in 1991 when the Soviet Union fell. His troops also call him the Russian butcher.
This will accelerate Ukraine's defeat. Zaluzhny exercized more caution and wanted to pull back from both Bakhmut and Avdeevka early on.
^
You won't read about this from any western media outlet, but the Russians just did an incredible behind enemy lines attack unlike anything I've ever seen in modern history.
They tunnelled beneath enemy lines near the south of Avdiivka (several of the troops were miners prior to the war) and took several Ukrainian positions by surprise, some without firing a single shot. The front line troops attacked simultaneously, and Ukraine lost 2 km. Absolutely stunning. History Legends briefly discusses it here but still doesn't give it the true recognition it deserves.
This is what set the stage for the complete capitulation of Avdiivka, which is underway now.
US HIMARS kill 28 in Lysychansk.
MOA gives some interesting insight: Ukraine is operating without adequate officer corps:
All together a battalion has some 12+ Lieutenants as platoon leaders, 4 Captains as company leaders, a battalion staff consisting of 1 or two additional seasoned Lieutenants, one or two additional Captains, one or two additional Majors and, at the top, a Lieutenant Colonel.
That's a total of about 10+ junior officers and some 10+ more seasoned or higher ranking officers.
Now lets look at a fleeting line in a recent New York Times report:
A normal reader, not well versed in military organization, will not stumble over that sentence as I did.
A Lieutenant at age 28 is likely a seasoned one. But in the role of a 'deputy battalion commander'?
What happened to the S3, the Major and nominal deputy battalion commander? What happened to the six Captains the battalion is supposed to have? All of them should be better trained and qualified to take on the role of a deputy battalion commander than a mere Lieutenant.
This small detail, a Lieutenant as deputy battalion commander, tells me more about the battalion's state that any flowery description of casualties.
Such a battalion is done with. Its officer corps is mostly dead or wounded. Its companies and platoons or likely to be run by mere sergeants. While such a unit may still hold onto some trenches it is certainly no longer able to fulfill any operational task. It will not be able to counterattack. It will not even be able to organize an orderly retreat.
They tunnelled beneath enemy lines near the south of Avdiivka (several of the troops were miners prior to the war) and took several Ukrainian positions by surprise, some without firing a single shot. The front line troops attacked simultaneously, and Ukraine lost 2 km. Absolutely stunning. History Legends briefly discusses it here but still doesn't give it the true recognition it deserves.
This is what set the stage for the complete capitulation of Avdiivka, which is underway now.
US HIMARS kill 28 in Lysychansk.
MOA gives some interesting insight: Ukraine is operating without adequate officer corps:
All together a battalion has some 12+ Lieutenants as platoon leaders, 4 Captains as company leaders, a battalion staff consisting of 1 or two additional seasoned Lieutenants, one or two additional Captains, one or two additional Majors and, at the top, a Lieutenant Colonel.
That's a total of about 10+ junior officers and some 10+ more seasoned or higher ranking officers.
Now lets look at a fleeting line in a recent New York Times report:
A normal reader, not well versed in military organization, will not stumble over that sentence as I did.
A Lieutenant at age 28 is likely a seasoned one. But in the role of a 'deputy battalion commander'?
What happened to the S3, the Major and nominal deputy battalion commander? What happened to the six Captains the battalion is supposed to have? All of them should be better trained and qualified to take on the role of a deputy battalion commander than a mere Lieutenant.
This small detail, a Lieutenant as deputy battalion commander, tells me more about the battalion's state that any flowery description of casualties.
Such a battalion is done with. Its officer corps is mostly dead or wounded. Its companies and platoons or likely to be run by mere sergeants. While such a unit may still hold onto some trenches it is certainly no longer able to fulfill any operational task. It will not be able to counterattack. It will not even be able to organize an orderly retreat.
Let's see what Syrsky will do next.
The most sensible option would be to withdrew from Avdiivka, fall back to a secondary defense line, hunker down and try to box the Russians in the devastated town. However, considering Syrsky's record, he's more likely to try to counterattack - just like he did when Bakhmut was falling.
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I thought I was following the story somewhat closely... how do they explain an American combat medic (female, whatever) fighting in the Ukraine / Russian conflict? Are we now openly admitting to fighting them, or is this just more of this passive aggressive Jewish feminine stuff where we pretend we aren't doing something well after the point of plausible deniability has passed?
Never underestimate the power of propaganda and brainwashing.
To the informed outsider here, the sacking of Zaluzny and the fall of Avdiiva seems the perfect time for a military coup. But when you consider all the insane western propaganda we see in the US, and imagine how much worse it must be in the heart of the beast in KEEEEV, who knows what they are being told? Maybe they are told "ghost of keev" type stories every day and have no idea what is really going on. A reminder to never trust authorities.
As Napoleon said, a solider will fight long and hard for a piece of ribbon.
Never underestimate the power of propaganda and brainwashing.
To the informed outsider here, the sacking of Zaluzny and the fall of Avdiiva seems the perfect time for a military coup. But when you consider all the insane western propaganda we see in the US, and imagine how much worse it must be in the heart of the beast in KEEEEV, who knows what they are being told? Maybe they are told "ghost of keev" type stories every day and have no idea what is really going on. A reminder to never trust authorities.
As Napoleon said, a solider will fight long and hard for a piece of ribbon.
I believe there is some combat/militia type NGO in Ukraine that facilitates recruiting and deploying foreign mercenaries. I remember early in the war a number of Americans and Brits were getting rekt and killed over there through voluntary enlistment. Much like the Wagner group, they're not technically under the command of the official government's army so there is a grey area.
It looks like Adveevka has fallen. There are some pockets of operationally encircled troops in the coke plant (4,000 men) and in the Citadel area (2-3,000) but their days are numbered. It appears the Ukrainians have withdrawn from the rest of the town to the Citadel or attempted to exit the town westwards on foot through the field under heavy artillery, drone and air strikes (suffering probably 70-80% casualties under these circumstances).
The Russian air force is bombing the coke plant and Citadel to dust. They're dropping around 100 Fab 500/ Fab 1500 (mostly Fab 500, but some 1500) glide bombs a day on Avdeevka, with now only these two areas to obliterate. These precision-guided glide bombs are launched by Su-34 bombers from a distance of around 40km and cause a massive amount of damage (500kg and 1,500 kg respectively.)
An absolute mauling. The Ukrainians have attempted to hastily build new defenses westwards, but these will likely be quite easy for the Russians to overcome compared to Avdeevka. Avdeevka was by far the most heavily fortified place in all of Ukraine as the Ukrainians had built heavy fortifications there since 2014, including concrete bunkers, tunnels, and large trench networks. They can either go straight for Pokrovsk, the main Ukrainian logistic hub in central Donbass, or north towards Niu York/Toretsk and Konstantinovka, or both at the same time (possible since they have large forces in the Avdeevka area, over 50k men).
Syrskyi, the new commander in chief of the Ukrainian army, has announced a retreat from Avdeevka. This, however, is rather optimistic. It will be very hard for them to pull out of the Citadel without incurring extremely heavy losses. Pulling out of the Coke plant may be easier, but still very costly.
The Russian air force is bombing the coke plant and Citadel to dust. They're dropping around 100 Fab 500/ Fab 1500 (mostly Fab 500, but some 1500) glide bombs a day on Avdeevka, with now only these two areas to obliterate. These precision-guided glide bombs are launched by Su-34 bombers from a distance of around 40km and cause a massive amount of damage (500kg and 1,500 kg respectively.)
An absolute mauling. The Ukrainians have attempted to hastily build new defenses westwards, but these will likely be quite easy for the Russians to overcome compared to Avdeevka. Avdeevka was by far the most heavily fortified place in all of Ukraine as the Ukrainians had built heavy fortifications there since 2014, including concrete bunkers, tunnels, and large trench networks. They can either go straight for Pokrovsk, the main Ukrainian logistic hub in central Donbass, or north towards Niu York/Toretsk and Konstantinovka, or both at the same time (possible since they have large forces in the Avdeevka area, over 50k men).
Syrskyi, the new commander in chief of the Ukrainian army, has announced a retreat from Avdeevka. This, however, is rather optimistic. It will be very hard for them to pull out of the Citadel without incurring extremely heavy losses. Pulling out of the Coke plant may be easier, but still very costly.
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The Russians have captured the Coke plant. It looks like the Ukrainians pulled out of there as well.
Many reports that the entire town has been captured. I am not sure what happened to the Ukrainian forces in the Citadel. It's possible that some forces there tried to retreat through the fields under heavy fire while the others are trapped by the Russians.
The Russians have raised their flag on the civil administration building and in the coke plant.
Many reports that the entire town has been captured. I am not sure what happened to the Ukrainian forces in the Citadel. It's possible that some forces there tried to retreat through the fields under heavy fire while the others are trapped by the Russians.
The Russians have raised their flag on the civil administration building and in the coke plant.
Fake tranny is back in the spotlight.