Financial Crash (2022-25)

Caduceus said:
Once enough people are familiar in using different digital currencies they will "regulate" the industry and convert all of them into 1 "official" digital currency. The great returns you are seeing now are just to bait more and more and more people into familiarity using them with bitcoin leading the way.
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I can buy the Trojan horse theory. However, how will these coins be merged? Is that even technologically possible?

And even if it is, maybe instead of merging them all into Fedcoin, they simply tax Bitcoin and the others out of existence while Fedcoin doesn't get taxed at all.
 
Maddox said:
I can buy the Trojan horse theory. However, how will these coins be merged? Is that even technologically possible?

And even if it is, maybe instead of merging them all into Fedcoin, they simply tax Bitcoin and the others out of existence while Fedcoin doesn't get taxed at all.
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How can they tax Bitcoin? If someone goes through a commercial business to hold or manage their Bitcoin, I can see how this would be done, but if you do direct transactions, the government can't really know.

I think it is similar to the way cash is now. According to the law, you are supposed to pay taxes on cash income, but many people work under the table, and a lot of smuggling and black market product sales are conducted in cash as well. The nature of Bitcoin allows private transactions to take place similar to cash, and I most people will choose not to report them.

I suppose if you were able to use Bitcoin to buy ordinary things like gas or food or airfare, then the businesses you deal with would be required to report the transactions, and you might be required to show how you got the Bitcoin you are spending. Or, they could just put a consumption tax on these sales and solve the problem that way.
 
Thomas More said:
The nature of Bitcoin allows private transactions to take place similar to cash, and I most people will choose not to report them.
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I don't believe you're posting accurate information, Bitcoin is traceable, so that naturally cannot occur, if someone wanted a much harder to track cryptyo, I believe Monero was the coin of choice.

Cash is still much better than Monero obviously, anything without a digital trail requires the most effort to track.
 
Aboulia said:
I don't believe you're posting accurate information, Bitcoin is traceable, so that naturally cannot occur, if someone wanted a much harder to track cryptyo, I believe Monero was the coin of choice.

Cash is still much better than Monero obviously, anything without a digital trail requires the most effort to track.
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I apologize about posting wrong info. I thought Bitcoin was private if two people exchange bitcoins directly.

Edit: I just looked this up. Every transaction is public! It is possible to have a an anonymous public key, meaning the transaction is associated with a number, but they don't know what person has that number. However, if you use your key for various kinds of transactions, then your name can be associated with your public key number.

So, they definitely could tax Bitcoin.
 
Thomas More said:
How can they tax Bitcoin? If someone goes through a commercial business to hold or manage their Bitcoin, I can see how this would be done, but if you do direct transactions, the government can't really know.

I think it is similar to the way cash is now. According to the law, you are supposed to pay taxes on cash income, but many people work under the table, and a lot of smuggling and black market product sales are conducted in cash as well. The nature of Bitcoin allows private transactions to take place similar to cash, and I most people will choose not to report them.

I suppose if you were able to use Bitcoin to buy ordinary things like gas or food or airfare, then the businesses you deal with would be required to report the transactions, and you might be required to show how you got the Bitcoin you are spending. Or, they could just put a consumption tax on these sales and solve the problem that way.
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I should've mentioned in my comment that I was assuming that the Digital ID law would go into effect before we transfer over to Fedcoin. So if you have to log in under your own name before you can make a Bitcoin transaction, how would they not know at that point who is doing what?
 
Caduceus said:
Once enough people are familiar in using different digital currencies they will "regulate" the industry and convert all of them into 1 "official" digital currency. The great returns you are seeing now are just to bait more and more and more people into familiarity using them with bitcoin leading the way.
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We already have this. I don't see a novel point you are making. Where you are incorrect is in the fact that anything electronic that exists IS NOT money, nor is it hard money, or the best money ever discovered aka BTC.
 
Thomas More said:
It is possible to have a an anonymous public key, meaning the transaction is associated with a number, but they don't know what person has that number. However, if you use your key for various kinds of transactions, then your name can be associated with your public key number.
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Cash has serial numbers on it. Most people aren't honest about the entirety of the situation regarding what I call "fear of the God government" and they bestow God-like powers to it where they do not exist. With ANY medium of exchange, if you are a person of interest, you can or theoretically will be under "fire."
 
Thomas More said:
How can they tax Bitcoin?
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It’s called capital gains tax. Under 12 months is short term capital gains. If I bought 1 bitcoin in January at 38000 and sold it now for 68000 a month and a half later then that is a short term capital gain of $30000. I owe the irs 37% of that short term capital gain . About $11000 in short term capital gains tax

Long term capital gains of 12 months if more is capped at 20%. If I bought 1btc a year or more ago for $18000 and sold for $68000 I had a gain of 50000$

I owe the irs 20% of 50000$, in this case $10000


Short story is taxation is theft
 
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Blade Runner said:
We already have this. I don't see a novel point you are making. Where you are incorrect is in the fact that anything electronic that exists IS NOT money, nor is it hard money, or the best money ever discovered aka BTC.
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I think you quoted the wrong person.
I never said anything electronic was not money.
 
Although it's a public ledger, it's very difficult to track bitcoin if you just move it between various private wallets. Someone can of course see where the coin has gone, but it's hard to find how who that destination wallet belongs to. It's the reason if you're crypto gets hacked, it's (basically) impossible to recover it once it's been moved around a bit. Compared to a bank transfer it's incredibly anonymous - there's a reason terrorist organisations use it. One theory I've toyed with on why it was invented... so the CIA could funnel funds to overseas proxies without it being seen.
 
Teedub said:
Although it's a public ledger, it's very difficult to track bitcoin if you just move it between various private wallets. Someone can of course see where the coin has gone, but it's hard to find how who that destination wallet belongs to. It's the reason if you're crypto gets hacked, it's (basically) impossible to recover it once it's been moved around a bit. Compared to a bank transfer it's incredibly anonymous - there's a reason terrorist organisations use it. One theory I've toyed with on why it was invented... so the CIA could funnel funds to overseas proxies without it being seen.
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I've described all of this but the conclusion hacks apparently don't read it, or don't want it to register, since they want to believe something else - for reasons we can't understand due to BTC having so much promise. I can summarize what I've said but quite honestly, it's getting tiring at this point. It is true that titled assets in life can theoretically be problematic in their acquisition "in the system" but we already have that problem with - oh wait - yes cash. The capabilities and properties of BTC make it more important than ever in defeating the main problems of life that exist.
 
Regarding this topic, I was linked an interview with Curt Doolittle about killing bitcoin and the introduction of FedCoin or whatever they may call the CBDC. I think he has a lot of presumptions about the changing face of the State, the people's interaction with it, and what they can actually pull off in light of wanting to maintain a productive economy. It smells a bit like the crystallized thinking of older people that @chance vought brings up. By the way, I don't deny that any government can make things uncomfortable for a while, but it's always temporary, whereas the critics always act like what they do is a final kill shot to the entire system, when we know that's quite clearly not the reality in systems, particularly decentralized ones. And they always pay a price. Check it out.

 
I'm not really clued into these sorts of matters, but since the voices claiming the USD will collapse (or go hyperinflated) in the near future, it has me wondering what that means for other currencies. Would a collapsing USD also collapse the Euro? Except for my retirement fund, which is in USD (not sure how to protect that)...is my money in Euros still theoretically safe? I have opened a bank account that can hold multiple different currencies and have been adding money to that each month and then allocating funds into Swiss francs, Norwegian kronor, etc. just as a hedge. Not sure if that would help anything, though. I'm interested in hearing thoughts from those more financially savvy than I.
 
Christos_NIKA said:
I'm not really clued into these sorts of matters, but since the voices claiming the USD will collapse (or go hyperinflated) in the near future, it has me wondering what that means for other currencies. Would a collapsing USD also collapse the Euro? Except for my retirement fund, which is in USD (not sure how to protect that)...is my money in Euros still theoretically safe? I have opened a bank account that can hold multiple different currencies and have been adding money to that each month and then allocating funds into Swiss francs, Norwegian kronor, etc. just as a hedge. Not sure if that would help anything, though. I'm interested in hearing thoughts from those more financially savvy than I.
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All the other fiat will collapse first unless they collude and put pressure on the US. See the Dollar Milkshake theory, which generally doesn't see my collusion angle.
 
Christos_NIKA said:
I'm not really clued into these sorts of matters, but since the voices claiming the USD will collapse (or go hyperinflated) in the near future, it has me wondering what that means for other currencies. Would a collapsing USD also collapse the Euro? Except for my retirement fund, which is in USD (not sure how to protect that)...is my money in Euros still theoretically safe? I have opened a bank account that can hold multiple different currencies and have been adding money to that each month and then allocating funds into Swiss francs, Norwegian kronor, etc. just as a hedge. Not sure if that would help anything, though. I'm interested in hearing thoughts from those more financially savvy than I.
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Is your retirement money actually in US dollars? Or is it in U.S dollar denominated assets (e.g. US stocks, U.S. real estate, etc)? Because they are potentially two completely different scenarios (assuming you don’t have too much money tied up in cash, bonds and money market funds etc)
 
Australia Sucks said:
Is your retirement money actually in US dollars? Or is it in U.S dollar denominated assets (e.g. US stocks, U.S. real estate, etc)? Because they are potentially two completely different scenarios (assuming you don’t have too much money tied up in cash, bonds and money market funds etc)
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"Which stock market gained the most over the past 15 years?" "Venezuela"

This leads down an interesting discussion -- Michael Saylor has said something to the effect of:
"When you get to 20%+ inflation, nothing, be it stocks, real estate, etc, can survive. It is all being destroyed, and your only option is to exit for another currency or location. Your mansion in Argentina or Lebanon might go up in number, but relative to other currencies it is being destroyed. At that point you either escape for another currency or become impoverished"

Many expensive things like stocks, real estate, price of healthcare or college education are not included in CPI. So if we consider the S&P500 growth rate, then it's more like 10% in the US over a long period of time, and higher since 2020.

So, even if you have USD-denominated assets like stocks and real estate that "should" grow with inflation, you might be screwed if inflation gets bad enough.
 
cosine said:
"Which stock market gained the most over the past 15 years?" "Venezuela"

This leads down an interesting discussion -- Michael Saylor has said something to the effect of:
"When you get to 20%+ inflation, nothing, be it stocks, real estate, etc, can survive. It is all being destroyed, and your only option is to exit for another currency or location. Your mansion in Argentina or Lebanon might go up in number, but relative to other currencies it is being destroyed. At that point you either escape for another currency or become impoverished"

Many expensive things like stocks, real estate, price of healthcare or college education are not included in CPI. So if we consider the S&P500 growth rate, then it's more like 10% in the US over a long period of time, and higher since 2020.

So, even if you have USD-denominated assets like stocks and real estate that "should" grow with inflation, you might be screwed if inflation gets bad enough.
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I would say that analysis is largely true.

However because certain U.S. assets such as S&P500 stocks and New York prime real estate etc are seen as global flight to safety assets and carry a large monetary premium they can weather somewhat higher inflation than the equivalent assets in most other countries.

But yes if the U.S.A. Becomes another Venezuela or Weimar Germany than only physical commodities (gold, oil, etc) and Bitcoin etc will retain their inflation adjusted value.
 
For example in Argentina despite the hyper inflating Argentinian peso the U.S. dollar price of prime Buenos Aires real estate has not dropped too much. Because Buenos Aires is still seen as a desirable location by foreigners and hence many real estate prices for prime Buenos Aires realestate are actually priced in U.S. dollars. But yes if Argentina gets to the level of Venezuela then all bets are off and nothing in Argentina will be safe from the debasement and societal collapse.
 
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