Financial Crash (2022-25)

[Joost]

For example in Argentina despite the hyper inflating Argentinian peso the U.S. dollar price of prime Buenos Aires real estate has not dropped too much. Because Buenos Aires is still seen as a desirable location by foreigners and hence many real estate prices for prime Buenos Aires realestate are actually priced in U.S. dollars. But yes if Argentina gets to the level of Venezuela then all bets are off and nothing in Argentina will be safe from the debasement and societal collapse.

Argentina had too many collapses in a short period of time so the population is concerned and “prepared”. Real Estate is their main savings strategy (I think they call it invest in bricks).

As discussed in another thread, real estate does not go up forever. Like every supply/demand, if argentina goes through another crisis, many will be forced to sell.

 

[Christos_NIKA]

Is your retirement money actually in US dollars? Or is it in U.S dollar denominated assets (e.g. US stocks, U.S. real estate, etc)? Because they are potentially two completely different scenarios (assuming you don’t have too much money tied up in cash, bonds and money market funds etc)

It’s in fund based IRAs, like Vanguard and such.

 

[Joost]

As the title of this thread itself shows is that you can’t time the market.

With all the money printing you should not avoid the markets and have insurance.

You should buy options to hedge your position. I have REIT stock that gives me a stable monthly income (7%/year). Since the stock went up since I got them, I bought put options 30% OTM (6 months expiration) for the equivalent of a month dividends. If the stock goes to zero, I recover 80% of my money. If down 30% (more likely), I recover 90%.

It makes me sleep better at night since I don’t have much diversification.

 

[Australia Sucks]

As the title of this thread itself shows is that you can’t time the market.

With all the money printing you should not avoid the markets and have insurance.

You should buy options to hedge your position. I have REIT stock that gives me a stable monthly income (7%/year). Since the stock went up since I got them, I bought put options 30% OTM (6 months expiration) for the equivalent of a month dividends. If the stock goes to zero, I recover 80% of my money. If down 30% (more likely), I recover 90%.

It makes me sleep better at night since I don’t have much diversification.

I’ve always said from the beginning (many years ago in similar threads in RooshV) that the crash will come in 2026 snd I still stand by that so we will see if I’m proven right. But of course nobody has a crystal ball.

 

[Cynllo]

I’ve always said from the beginning (many years ago in similar threads in RooshV) that the crash will come in 2026 snd I still stand by that so we will see if I’m proven right. But of course nobody has a crystal ball.

What's your reasoning on 2026?

From what I am seeing from liquidity guys they say we are at the beginning of a move up for global liquidity, which I think is particularly bullish for crypto. 2026 looks to be a down year

Looks like Hunter's dad was going to go anti-crypto. But then Trump has countered with going very pro-crypto and leaning into the Libertarian Party. I listened to a bit of his speech at their convention and it was 2016 quality. Now the potato Boden seems to be scrambling for a crypto lite position. So many young guys betting their future on the crypto cycle. Boden will loose a good 5% of people with an anti-crypto position. It feels like the establishment is walking into a trap with crypto.

I think that 2026 might see pushes for crypto regulation, as this cycle is very degen. We will see at least $100b cap for meme coins. Maybe $100s of billions. It is pushing it, but I can see crypto going to about $20T if it pans out well. Crash will be horrendous. 52% of top hedge funds are in BTC ETFs. What happens when mainstream finance gets exposed to the downside of crypto winter?

 

[Blade Runner]

What's your reasoning on 2026?

From what I am seeing from liquidity guys they say we are at the beginning of a move up for global liquidity, which I think is particularly bullish for crypto. 2026 looks to be a down year

Looks like Hunter's dad was going to go anti-crypto. But then Trump has countered with going very pro-crypto and leaning into the Libertarian Party. I listened to a bit of his speech at their convention and it was 2016 quality. Now the potato Boden seems to be scrambling for a crypto lite position. So many young guys betting their future on the crypto cycle. Boden will loose a good 5% of people with an anti-crypto position. It feels like the establishment is walking into a trap with crypto.

I think that 2026 might see pushes for crypto regulation, as this cycle is very degen. We will see at least $100b cap for meme coins. Maybe $100s of billions. It is pushing it, but I can see crypto going to about $20T if it pans out well. Crash will be horrendous. 52% of top hedge funds are in BTC ETFs. What happens when mainstream finance gets exposed to the downside of crypto winter?

Yes, the liquidity will go beyond this chart even. Then we enter the 2026-2028 debt and war cycle ...

 

[Australia Sucks]

What's your reasoning on 2026?

From what I am seeing from liquidity guys they say we are at the beginning of a move up for global liquidity, which I think is particularly bullish for crypto. 2026 looks to be a down year

Looks like Hunter's dad was going to go anti-crypto. But then Trump has countered with going very pro-crypto and leaning into the Libertarian Party. I listened to a bit of his speech at their convention and it was 2016 quality. Now the potato Boden seems to be scrambling for a crypto lite position. So many young guys betting their future on the crypto cycle. Boden will loose a good 5% of people with an anti-crypto position. It feels like the establishment is walking into a trap with crypto.

I think that 2026 might see pushes for crypto regulation, as this cycle is very degen. We will see at least $100b cap for meme coins. Maybe $100s of billions. It is pushing it, but I can see crypto going to about $20T if it pans out well. Crash will be horrendous. 52% of top hedge funds are in BTC ETFs. What happens when mainstream finance gets exposed to the downside of crypto winter?

There are multiple reasoning for my guess of a 2026 severe global economic downturn (with asset prices peaking sometime in 2025 (most likely late in the year). The 4 year liquidity cycle peaks just before 2026 which is inline with asset prices turning down then with real economy to turn down sometime in 2026 (lag effect). In addition to Kondratiev commodity cycle should peak sometime between 2025 - 2030. Additionally and most importantly the 18.6 year real estate cycle as explained by guys like Phil Anderson, Fred Harrison, Fred Folvary, Michael Hudson, etc points to an economic crash most likely in 2026, although we will need to watch heading up to that time to see if leading indicators confirm this (downtrend and earnings declines in U.S. REITs and home-builders, etc, falling U.S.A. real estate prices, estimated completion date of world's tallest building (i.e. skyscraper index), etc.

 

[Blade Runner]

There are multiple reasoning for my guess of a 2026 severe global economic downturn (with asset prices peaking sometime in 2025 (most likely late in the year). The 4 year liquidity cycle peaks just before 2026 which is inline with asset prices turning down then with real economy to turn down sometime in 2026 (lag effect). In addition to Kondratiev commodity cycle should peak sometime between 2025 - 2030. Additionally and most importantly the 18.6 year real estate cycle as explained by guys like Phil Anderson, Fred Harrison, Fred Folvary, Michael Hudson, etc points to an economic crash most likely in 2026, although we will need to watch heading up to that time to see if leading indicators confirm this (downtrend and earnings declines in U.S. REITs and home-builders, etc, falling U.S.A. real estate prices, estimated completion date of world's tallest building (i.e. skyscraper index), etc.

Yes, AS has been saying all of this for some time and I am in the camp that we hold off the inevitable downturn with all manners of tricks to increase liquidity, so I agree with him. I also think that Trump wins and the general foil (deep state lashing out) will be towards the mid term, with the war machine ramping up for sure in 2026.

 

[Samseau]

Some serious pain in the bond markets:

The Music Just Stopped: Japan Banking Giant Norinchukin To Liquidate $63 Billion In Treasuries & European Bonds To Plug Massive Unrealized Losses | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Basically, all of the cheap 0% bonds are maturing, and aren't worth crapola now that new lucrative bonds are being sold for 3-5%, so no one wants the toxic bonds and there is a serious risk of fire sale bond selling before they mature into nothing.

Grab the popcorn, looks like a ton of money printing bailout of banks is about to happen. This of course will have a massive negative effect on the rest of the economy, and how bad it will get is anyone's guess.

 

[cosine]

Some serious pain in the bond markets:

The Music Just Stopped: Japan Banking Giant Norinchukin To Liquidate $63 Billion In Treasuries & European Bonds To Plug Massive Unrealized Losses | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Basically, all of the cheap 0% bonds are maturing, and aren't worth crapola now that new lucrative bonds are being sold for 3-5%, so no one wants the toxic bonds and there is a serious risk of fire sale bond selling before they mature into nothing.

Grab the popcorn, looks like a ton of money printing bailout of banks is about to happen. This of course will have a massive negative effect on the rest of the economy, and how bad it will get is anyone's guess.

It's amazing to me that anyone would buy bonds that actually yield 0%. I've heard that a lot of these purchases are from firms, pension funds, or index funds that have bylaws forcing them to buy some type of bond under some conditions. Or a lot of purchasing is automatic, and they likely buy a basket of things including bonds that actually have yields.

So the automated purchasing keeps going even when it makes absolutely no sense, and people got away with selling 0% bonds. I guess a $100 bond yielding 0% is not worth nothing, it's just worth less than $100.

 

[Samseau]

It's amazing to me that anyone would buy bonds that actually yield 0%. I've heard that a lot of these purchases are from firms, pension funds, or index funds that have bylaws forcing them to buy some type of bond under some conditions. Or a lot of purchasing is automatic, and they likely buy a basket of things including bonds that actually have yields.

So the automated purchasing keeps going even when it makes absolutely no sense, and people got away with selling 0% bonds. I guess a $100 bond yielding 0% is not worth nothing, it's just worth less than $100.

Yes, it's baffling, although I suppose it makes some sense when we consider that, at the time, other bonds such as EU or JPY bonds were even lower yields, in the negative territory if I recall correctly. Just clown world stuff

 

[Blade Runner]

It's amazing to me that anyone would buy bonds that actually yield 0%. I've heard that a lot of these purchases are from firms, pension funds, or index funds that have bylaws forcing them to buy some type of bond under some conditions. Or a lot of purchasing is automatic, and they likely buy a basket of things including bonds that actually have yields.

So the automated purchasing keeps going even when it makes absolutely no sense, and people got away with selling 0% bonds. I guess a $100 bond yielding 0% is not worth nothing, it's just worth less than $100.

They're going to find a way to print. ZH needs another angle to convince people on the fearmongering things of their past, which they keep up. Anyone listening to ZH about BTC or stocks from last decade, who stalled in their adoption or buying of those, has lost out on millions.

 

[Samseau]

They're going to find a way to print. ZH needs another angle to convince people on the fearmongering things of their past, which they keep up. Anyone listening to ZH about BTC or stocks from last decade, who stalled in their adoption or buying of those, has lost out on millions.

Actually ZH has always said to buy stonks in response to the money printing.

They coined the meme, "Buy the dip. Just buy the dip you fucking idiot."

 

[jaguarcat]

Zero hedge is Israel-run website, they always push pro-Israel and pro jew articles and try to bash Palestine. All I need to know.
Most of their content lately are political pieces and not financial/economy articles, clearly someone is paying for that and it's not the advertisers.
(anyone with morals would not invest into US demon stock market anyway, but morals and principles is a gone by thing these days, yeah lost "millions" but saved their moral integrity)

 

[Samseau]

Zero hedge is Israel-run website, they always push pro-Israel and pro jew articles and try to bash Palestine. All I need to know.
Most of their content lately are political pieces and not financial/economy articles, clearly someone is paying for that and it's not the advertisers.
(anyone with morals would not invest into US demon stock market anyway, but morals and principles is a gone by thing these days, yeah lost "millions" but saved their moral integrity)

This isn't a ZH thread. Go make a ZH thread if you'd like or talk about ZH in the fake news thread.