Financial Crash (2022-25)

Australia Sucks said:
Current mini downturn is just a blip in my opinion. Stock markets will be at all time highs in a few months and could be the same for Bitcoin. I am still sticking by my forecast of a major economic crash in 2026 and some asset prices might lead that by starting their descent sometime between June 2025 and December 2025. So still premature to be preparing for a crash.
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Yes, after being a bear but realizing that the system is awash in cash that will only continue, all I foresee for a while is volatility and rate cuts, printing, propping. Most of the job losses, by the way, are technology sector. The key will be not to get scared and cash in on BTC or the stocks that you find will keep up in the minds of those who also want the markets to keep climbing. As Tom Lee said, this is just a growth scare. The powers that be can and will keep doing more to prop, and they have to because of the stock market being the only reliable tax revenue producer through capital gains. What's more, the printing will both increase GDP nominally, decrease the debt to GDP ratio, and that will happen at the same time the plan is supported by rate cuts to roll over debt and keep that same inflation plan going.

The economy is actually OK in that residential construction actually keeps increasing and the rate cuts will also help the monetary creation via loans, and thus liquidity in general. The problem is that the economy was increasingly for the 15%, and now it's the 10%, soon to be the 5%.

People must understand that all of this is a perfect coincidence of wants. If you keep inflation up, slowly but surely, you destroy the middle class and achieve what I've said: now you have an elite class that is getting smaller and smaller. People will continue to have fewer kids, and the boomers and older will die from problems with health and war that is coming. I'll end on that note for now. I think the larger draw downs in the stock markets happen in 2026 just like Australia does, because my current prediction is Trump wins and 2025 is melt up in many things continuing into 2026, when they pull out all the stops for a war at the mid term time period. It seems like a really funny prediction also since 1776+250 is 2026 (250 years being the basic average for empire duration). Peel back a layer and realize, though, that all of this is back fitting, since the USA really became a country in 1789 with the Constitution being established that year.
 
The number of conversations I hear from young people about the economy is pretty crazy. I experienced similar in the early 2000's with the tech bust and the 2007 housing market crash, but this time around it is much more widespread. The number of young people, who really are not politically aware, or in a financial/accounting job, nor are investors, but are talking about how the economy is bad is really shocking to me.

This economy is wrecked, the elites simply have too much wealth and the only way to fix it would be to confiscate it and spread it back to the people they have stolen it from. And that isn't going to happen.
 
It_Is_My_Time said:
The number of conversations I hear from young people about the economy is pretty crazy. I experienced similar in the early 2000's with the tech bust and the 2007 housing market crash, but this time around it is much more widespread. The number of young people, who really are not politically aware, or in a financial/accounting job, nor are investors, but are talking about how the economy is bad is really shocking to me.

This economy is wrecked, the elites simply have too much wealth and the only way to fix it would be to confiscate it and spread it back to the people they have stolen it from. And that isn't going to happen.
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Part of it is that governments keep fudging the figures more and more to hide the reality of how bad things actually are.

For example in Australia the headline GDP figures which look okay and appear to be growing are merely being propped up by immigration and currency devaluation. When measured in U.S. dollars the GDP per capita in Australia today is lower than it was in 2013!!
 
Also hedonic adjustments in CPI are a massive scam. They will adjust down the price of technology (cars, cellphones, laptops, etc) because you are getting better technology for the same money but they to my knowledge haven't adjusted up the price of food, clothing or shoes, etc to account for lower quality. 40 years ago food had far less chemicals, pesticides, seed oils, etc and clothing and shoes actually lasted a long time. Now most clothing and pairs of shoes only last a year if they are heavily used. I don't see any of that being taken into account when they do hedonic adjustments.

All government statistics are suspect. For example in Australia according to the Australian Bureu of Statistics (ABS) unemployment is 3.7%. But according to a major polling company in Australia (Roy Morgan) unemployment is 9.7%. That is a huge difference!!

All government statistics are a lie to keep everything looking okay. But even low IQ normies can see that their standard of living is going down hill fast despite the official government statistics telling them otherwise.
 
It seems like its getting tough all over the world, so in my country South Africa since the lockdowns living expenses have gone through the roof, food has just about doubled in price and so has fuel, property also very high interest rates went up a lot so much so that my morgage went up a few thousand rands a month, electricity very high, building material also gone up, I hear people complaining about there being no work, no business, no jobs, for the last few years around 50,000 wealthy and highly qualified people leave the country every year.

There are still people I know who are doing well in business and in their jobs etc, there are still some bargain properties around if you really look Im just generalizing here.

Regarding housing I think we need to come up with better ways to get our own housing, we have services and technology available and easy to access where we could set up our own homes, we just need to buy vacant land and try live without government services it works out much cheaper, septic tanks for sewage, alternative energy like solar so we dont have to be connected to the grid and well water running through our houses, the actual house can be made from alternative materials, hay bale homes, shipping container designs, wood etc, I think for my next house I want to try something like this and I think this mothers son is going to have to do the same.
 
GoodShepherd said:
It seems like its getting tough all over the world, so in my country South Africa since the lockdowns living expenses have gone through the roof, food has just about doubled in price and so has fuel, property also very high interest rates went up a lot so much so that my morgage went up a few thousand rands a month, electricity very high, building material also gone up, I hear people complaining about there being no work, no business, no jobs, for the last few years around 50,000 wealthy and highly qualified people leave the country every year.

There are still people I know who are doing well in business and in their jobs etc, there are still some bargain properties around if you really look Im just generalizing here.
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To be fair you are in South Africa. Over here in the US properties are high but so are the internet rates. But the second they drop the interest rates all the institutional money will jack up the property prices even more.
 
I'm away with some friends this weekend. Some of the guys who are in the personal fitness area in the UK are really feeling the pinch of cost of living and it's knock on effect of the disposable income that people have. They say that their numbers are down by quite a bit as people tighten their belt and stop spending money on luxuries.
 
SkiPro said:
I'm away with some friends this weekend. Some of the guys who are in the personal fitness area in the UK are really feeling the pinch of cost of living and it's knock on effect of the disposable income that people have. They say that their numbers are down by quite a bit as people tighten their belt and stop spending money on luxuries.
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We're going to have a good 2025, but the years after that will be exponential increase in awareness of how costly life is from top to bottom, and how little hope there will be in most countries that are now 5% haves, 95% have nots, with increasing debt everywhere.
 
GoodShepherd said:
In my country if you buy vaccant land you need to pay at least 40-50% deposit first, Im assuming its the same in USA?
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It is hard to get a loan on vacant land without about 50% down. Banks figure if a borrower comes onto hard times, it is easier to walk away from a loan on vacant land than it is to lose your residence or an income property, so they want a high equity percentage to provide better collateral.
 
Thomas More said:
It is hard to get a loan on vacant land without about 50% down. Banks figure if a borrower comes onto hard times, it is easier to walk away from a loan on vacant land than it is to lose your residence or an income property, so they want a high equity percentage to provide better collateral.
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There are not many banks willing to finance even at 50%. I was just warning a friend of mine last week. She was going to buy land to build. And I told her have you checked with the bank how much they will loan you? She haven´t. Thought it would be like apartments. It´s not. Some people only realize after signing the promissory. I think even acquisition taxes are higher in land. But it will depend on which country. Interest rates are higher also.
 
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Thomas More said:
It is hard to get a loan on vacant land without about 50% down. Banks figure if a borrower comes onto hard times, it is easier to walk away from a loan on vacant land than it is to lose your residence or an income property, so they want a high equity percentage to provide better collateral.
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The thing is typically banks focus more on income when lending rather then asset backing. And vacant land generates no income therefore they are looking at solely your salary servicing the loan hence why the minimum deposit is so high.
 
Australia Sucks said:
The thing is typically banks focus more on income when lending rather then asset backing. And vacant land generates no income therefore they are looking at solely your salary servicing the loan hence why the minimum deposit is so high.
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100%. They like recurring income. The asset comes second. If I send my bank manager a property already rented. Producing income. He will drool over it.

Even when they assess your income. If you only have capital gains. Unless it´s taxed as your professional activity. They count it as zero.

One year I was surprised by this. Had a good capital gains tax income statement. But for the bank it was worth nothing. They consider it as a one time shot. Not recurring. The next year couldnt get mortgages to invest. It ended up being a good thing since that year I haven´t invested in real estate again. It became a gap year of investments. Prolonged till today. Waiting for 2026 to get back in the game.
 
Thomas More said:
It is hard to get a loan on vacant land without about 50% down. Banks figure if a borrower comes onto hard times, it is easier to walk away from a loan on vacant land than it is to lose your residence or an income property, so they want a high equity percentage to provide better collateral.
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I understand from the lenders point of view why they require such a high deposit because like you said if someone doesnt pay or runs away then what does the lender have? If theres a house its much easier to get your money back as a lender.

South Africa has a constitutional law that can be quite silly but also can come in handy, its in our constitution that everyone has the right to housing so by law they not supposed to mess around with peoples houses too much, it was originally done this way I think to protect the black people and their shacks and squatter camps but I have also taken advantage of this law, I built a home without any plans or paper work (on my own property) and when the government showed up threatening and demanding plans I just told them that the constitutions says we have the right to housing and I basically told them to piss off and go take down all the squatter camps first then come back to my house when they done and its been a few years now and nobody has ever come back to me.
 
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