We will but I don't see how the family formation occurs for most of the quality outside of the extreme elites. They captured women with optionality and selling the lie, and men are handcuffed.
Financial Crash (2022-25)
- Thread starter Cynllo
- Start date
By rebuilding trust they don't mean people like us, they mean the masses (who did trust them enough to get to big "vaccinaion" rates). Some people are sure trusting of the government...
I came accross a discussion on reddit, about Fed rate cuts. What I'd learned is that a few genuinely believe that:
- everyone got wealthier since 2019
- economy is doing great
- real inflation is 2% now
- we are at the start of major bull market and technology mega supercycle
I guess these are Biden voters..
The amount of copium is insane.
- everyone got wealthier since 2019
- economy is doing great
- real inflation is 2% now
- we are at the start of major bull market and technology mega supercycle
I guess these are Biden voters..
The amount of copium is insane.
Good points on top. Things can keep going, but they won't, now that we've entered the stage where people actually think it's a "bull market" even when we are in the lag portion of the fastest rate hikes in history and unemployment is about to CRUSH people at mid year.
The last part is the debased, degenerate gays and dink types that were lucky to have good lives and inherit much from their parents. As I said, the insolvencies in the Russell and the bankruptcy and job loss of Main St is going to be big this year. Of course, some rich will keep getting richer, but they better have bodyguards and a new outlook on day to day life.
I'm still skeptical that anyone can time these recession/depression events and say they'll happen this year, like fact.
I'm early, but we hit SVB. A black swan is coming in Q1 or Q2.
Markets are going down big Q1, and maybe more Q2, then printer goes brr. I'm hedged with BTC, and hold long term anyway, so my buying of MSTR or miners recently is perfectly fine since it might moonshot in Q1 too. Or I just hold for the last part of this bull cycle, which for me is at least into mid 2025.
People who keep bringing up the point of fast rate hikes need to look at a long term graph of real (CPI adjusted) interest rates. Real interest rates in the USA are still below the historical average and only around 2% which historically speaking is not considered to be tight/contractionary monetary policy. Although with the caveat that obviously the higher the debt burden gets over time the lower the “neutral rate of interest” becomes. Still it’s hard to argue we have tight monetary policy at this point.
Sure, when you think in very basic terms, if you lent a friend money, how much interest would you require? 6-8% seems rather reasonable to me. 10% isn't crazy. But our assets(especially homes) are now so inflated, that 8-10% interest is absurd. If the median home price in the US was still $245k or so, but you paid 8% interest, that seems quite reasonable to me. Instead you pay multiple times that for a normal house. We got locked into the drug of cheap debt and are having a hard time getting through withdrawal.
Well... I think this is generally correct. But... It's worth noting....as a borrower ...
Borrowers benefit from unanticipated inflation because the money they pay back is worth less than the money they borrowed.
Of course. That is why I suggest that we got hooked on cheap debt like a drug.
Usury as a prohibited sin had been discussed thousands years ago, nothing surprising about eventual outcomes for debt-based society.
By the way, hard money loans start at around 10% now, I think, being 10-12%. It makes business sense for them because the houses had already inflated and they dont expect further rapid devaluation like in 2020-21 soon. Long term government bonds being 4.5% are supposed to signal long term inflation expectations but it's hard to imagine it being so low in coming years given massive fast-increasing debt. (next big catastrophic event will probably be in 2030, they are focused on that year in their various milestones)
I agree that there is no tight monetary policy, even M2 money supply is no longer declining. Real rates are around -3% based on realistic inflation such as from Shadow Stats data, not based on official CPI which is mostly papered over data that doesn't include real estate either. CPI took a big skewing into the fake territory starting in the early 80s, so real rates are still historically very low (the glorious rate hike cycle was simply a slight attempt to crawl out of the hole of 0/negative rates to give themselves some room for maneuvre). During Volker shock actual real rate was about 5%
By the way, hard money loans start at around 10% now, I think, being 10-12%. It makes business sense for them because the houses had already inflated and they dont expect further rapid devaluation like in 2020-21 soon. Long term government bonds being 4.5% are supposed to signal long term inflation expectations but it's hard to imagine it being so low in coming years given massive fast-increasing debt. (next big catastrophic event will probably be in 2030, they are focused on that year in their various milestones)
I agree that there is no tight monetary policy, even M2 money supply is no longer declining. Real rates are around -3% based on realistic inflation such as from Shadow Stats data, not based on official CPI which is mostly papered over data that doesn't include real estate either. CPI took a big skewing into the fake territory starting in the early 80s, so real rates are still historically very low (the glorious rate hike cycle was simply a slight attempt to crawl out of the hole of 0/negative rates to give themselves some room for maneuvre). During Volker shock actual real rate was about 5%
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CPI not including home purchase prices since the early 80s is actually their official admission of the shift towards society of rental slaves and serfs, the serfs are not supposed to own real estate so CPI got rid of it and kept rental prices (albeit completely fake ones, artificially low)
It's hard to get timing timing down to the year.
Back in 2018 I'd predicted big inflation event but surely could not time it, just knew it was coming within the next few years.
Like they say, the market can stay irrational longer than one can stay solvent.
On the other hand, there are signs, such as shoe shine boy moments, and when people get irrationally bullush it might be just that kind of signal.
Another thing is to watch out for are new big Hollywood movies, they sometimes hint of things through them, setting the mood and the stage, so to speak (Joker was one example of Black Swan premonition or warning, and they call 2020 the Joker year)
Then there is yield curve dynamics, such as 10y2y chart which is strongly pre-recessionary now.
Do you even crypto?
No, and it seems too vulnerable to buy into. PM seems like a much safer bet.
1. Real estate, 2. cash-flowing businesses, and 3. Bitcoin.
Rental properties produce stable, predictable cash-flow. As inflation goes up, debt becomes worthless. Works until true hyperinflation and then you don't even want a home in the Weimar Republic, you want to leave. I don't think it'll get that bad.
Any business that people need will probably continue to be needed. Whether we end up using Chinese Yuan or whatever, it'll still be valuable.
Gold/precious metals are inflation-resistant for sure. I was skeptical of bitcoin, but eventually a friend who had conviction began talking to me about it consistently, and his ideas made sense. I owned precious metals index funds at the time, and our discourse caused me to shift to bitcoin, and no other crypto. Bitcoin has an asymmetric upside potential, gold has none.
The bitcoin/crypto thread on this forum has become more of a discussion of how to acquire more and etc, and less of a discussion about its merits, but happy to make my arguments.
If we come back to your question:
You owe it to yourself to honestly spend some time and an open mind learning about bitcoin. Its whole purpose is to provide an exit from money printing, and it has gained the critical mass it needs to explode. Money will shift to younger generations and the old people who hate it will die.
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I saw this today. I knew we were hosed but it’s starting to be a bit more clear just how
Once we go to BTC of 6 figs, and we are not far off, one also must understand we've also transitioned into the stacking sats phase of BTC, since (new) "whole coiners" will be very rare. It isn't too late but you only have a few more months. Get crackin' on that 40 hours of homework to understand this, people. There is not one single thing that is more worth your time. You may think that's crazy, but it's not even close.
Worth a repost 