Hmm. I'm on the fence about this. Will the Fed pull the rug during his Administration and then blame the "Bad, Greedy Republicans"...? Probably. But there is also a chance that it doesn't matter. Trump is a competent fellow regarding economic policy. And free markets work. Never count out the ingenuity and industry of the American people when left alone. Also, when competence comes in, confidence goes up. So I do hold a slight bit of hope that competent leadership provided by DJT can save our economy.
Financial Crash (2022-25)
- Thread starter Cynllo
- Start date
I think a huge crash is needed, and would actually benefit society in the long run. Burn off the dead wood, get rid of all of the make-work jobs that are like daycare for adult single women liberal arts majors, stop the endless supply of gibs to illegals, and a return to valuing productivity and competency.
Our economy is already broken, a major crash would finally allow the healing process to start.
True. That would certainly restore the allocation of capital to its best uses. But we live in a democracy, my friend. The vast majority of people in this country, and sadly even many Trump supporters, don't want to see said huge crash, because they have invested in the broken system themselves. So it's unlikely that our rulers will allow a huge crash to happen
I've said that's possible but it won't be on the basis of structural. It'll be psychological. And even, it'd have to be war like I said. They can do stupid things like bond buying through the Fed to prop up til at least 2030. I do think 2026 might see something big, though - it's my top prediction currently.
That's what I'm saying. Let's see if he wins first.
The crash will happen either way regardless of who is president. 18.6 year real estate cycle, Kondratiev cycle, skyscraper index, 4 year global liquidity cycles and other indicators all point to it being likely that the economy has a major downturn starting sometime in 2026.
This guy thinks it will pop off after the election. 2008 was the fiscal end of the road for the US and we just kept the party going on credit. We never took our deflationary medicine and mathematically we have to some day. It’s either that or hyperinflation.
If you’re a big saver like me deflation is music to your ears, yet it causes serious economic issues.
Agreed. Current interest on the US national debt is coming up on 25% of current total federal tax revenues.
When a household gets to the point of paying 25% of their income on interest from unsecured debt, where are they headed? Bankruptcy! How can a household pay down a debt that so large it's taking 25% of their income in interest?
A person might say "The household should be able to refinance their debt from short term, high interest rate loans, to longer term, lower interest rates." Yes, but the US already is paying an estimated 3.3% interest on its $35.8 trillion debt. That's already about as low as possible. In fact ,it lower than the likely rate of inflation going forward. That rate is likely to rise.
A person might say, "It doesn't matter. A government can just print money to pay the interest!". Yes, but printing money raises inflation, as has been known for millennia. Rising inflation raises interest rates, so soon the US will be paying much more than 3.3% inflation on the enormous $35.8 trillion debt, which will reach $40 trillion in barely two years.
The government will either have to print money and cause significant inflation, or they will have to undertake painful measures now to start getting back on the right track.
They will print the money. The inflation will get much higher.
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Yes, this is a short end vs long end sort of thing. Either way ...
Yes, and if they do a version of that (QE) to control the yield curve, the psychological effects cause people to flee into gold and BTC. Further crushing the dollar.
Lyn Alden reader, I see. She is fantastic.
Yes, I'm curious what will happen to them next year. It looks like 2026 though, as I see spending continuing into late next year.
Nothing in the US ever "crashes." It's all one big fake news story. Now, Russia will be crashing in multiple ways due to moving away from the forever winning US dollar.
You've got to be kidding right? It's always "one more year" and the "US is over because the US dollar will be worthless and then bitcoin will go to one billion dollars."
You have to define your terms.You've got to be kidding right? It's always "one more year" and the "US is over because the US dollar will be worthless and then bitcoin will go to one billion dollars."
The U.S. dollar as with all fiat currencies has already lost a huge amount of value. How is the U.S. dollar winning? The only way you could make that claim is by comparing it to other fiat currencies that are devaluing even faster i.e. the boat that is sinking at the slowest rate.Nothing in the US ever "crashes." It's all one big fake news story. Now, Russia will be crashing in multiple ways due to moving away from the forever winning US dollar.
You've got to be kidding right? It's always "one more year" and the "US is over because the US dollar will be worthless and then bitcoin will go to one billion dollars."
The gold price in the year 2000 averaged $280 USD per ounce. Today it sits at over $2600 USD per ounce. House prices in Florida averaged around $106,000 USD in the year 2000. Today they average around $415,000. Average price of a dozen eggs in the year 2000 in USA was around $0.90 USD today it sits at around $3 USD. Average price of a pound of potatoes in USA was $0.38 in the year 2000. Today 1 pound of potatoes costs an average of $1. One gallon of petrol in the year 2000 was around $1.50 USD today it sits at $3 to $3.50 per gallon.
From the year 2000 until now the average USA salary increased from around $35,296 to $62,027 today. Only a 76% increase. So peoples salaries did not keep up with inflation.
You don't buy that fiat is great for the people. like Urkel and Scorpion say? What a great tool for development and enrichment ... for the parasites! We better blame something that increases in value over time. That'll strengthen our argument!
When did I ever say that fiat is "great for the people"?
I've repeatedly warned you about your needlessly aggressive and condescending tone, and now you're just outright misrepresenting things I've posted.
Take some time away the forum to think about the way you choose to interact with people.
Until a legitimate alternative exists (not the BRICS)... The dollar is king baby.
But yeah...
The sky is falling!!!!
But yeah...
The sky is falling!!!!
Land is where the big boys park their money, because it is a very safe investment when you have millions in cash to move into a safe haven investment. Land is super expensive, and banks are unlikely to loan you money on it unless you have a real way of proving you can make the giant payments. Add in 8.5% interest on loans and land is super expensive.
Living here for almost 50 years, I would say it has already crashed. Life is a huge struggle for most, the COL has skyrocketed way past pay over the last 50 years. Most young people cannot afford to buy a home and start a family. Those who do, hate sending their kids to our terrible public education brainwashing system. Crime is out of control, even in "good areas".Nothing in the US ever "crashes." It's all one big fake news story. Now, Russia will be crashing in multiple ways due to moving away from the forever winning US dollar.
You've got to be kidding right? It's always "one more year" and the "US is over because the US dollar will be worthless and then bitcoin will go to one billion dollars."
It will get worse, but it is already pretty bad for a majority of Americans. If Agriculture goes under in the USA, and that is very close right now, the whole system will go under like the Titanic. Agriculture is the backbone and once it breaks it is over. I don't know how they can prevent Ag from going under, except for kicking off the money printer and bailing farmers out.