The real question for a divide, if it happens, is what the governmental structures or people who are disobedient do, and how they collaborate. That means States/Governors, military, etc. I think the DC crowd knows they have no real chance against any (even small) organized group that is "conservative", so they have to somehow maintain the military in their camp, however possible that might be.
The question is definitely what this counter-reaction ends up looking like. Imagine if the regime succeeds in jailing Trump (perhaps even killing him in custody, Epstein style) and stealing the 2024 election with egregiously phony ballot numbers, justifying their improbable victory by claiming that people didn't want to vote for a "convicted felon" (notice how they are already hammering this phrase into the public consciousness over and over).The entire population is galvanized now, and there is actual hope of Americans rebelling now.
What will happen then? We know that the traditional wing of the GOP will just roll over and take it without a fuss. But what about the MAGA wing of the party? What about Trump's loyal base of tens of millions of Americans? What about the numerous MAGA-friendly Governors throughout the country, whom have command of their state National Guard units? What about the military itself (the executive leadership of which may be mostly corrupted, but which still has plenty of true patriots serving in both the officer and enlisted ranks).
It's easy to envision a coalition of conservative states, probably led by Florida and Texas, refusing to acknowledge a stolen 2024 Joe Biden election and essentially seceding from the U.S. federal government. But what happens after that is anyone's guess. The fallout would be completely unpredictable, except to say that the consequences themselves would likely be both wide-ranging and severe, both for better and for worse.