Keith Woods has a pretty good track record of predicting US election results, despite being in Ireland. I think Trump wins, but again, just to document these predictions in this criticism thread.
I largely agree with his analysis, which is excellent IMO and worth a read.
To summarize some key points:
-The "13 Keys to the White House," which have a very strong track record of predicting the next President going back to the 1800s, are 8-to-4 in favor of Harris (the incumbent party) over Trump. The keys focus mostly on whether there is strong enough unrest (war, economy, foreign policy failures) to overcome the inertia of the incumbent party and demonstrate that the voting population wants a regime/party change.
-Trump won in 2016 on the basis of swing state voters who had
previously voted for Obama. These were populist-leaning voters in Rust Belt/former manufactured states who felt left behind by globalism. These voters have largely swung back toward the Democratic party. Trump failed to deliver on his campaign promises of increasing manufacturing. The Biden administration has supposedly made significant investments in the Rust Belt with bills like the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act. I don't live in that part of the country, so I'm not sure what the perception is there.
-Abortion is more or less a single issue driver for a large segment of the female vote. There is a perception that a Trump presidency would lead to a national abortion ban. He also has a
fascinating insight into why abortion is such a big issue in a way I hadn't thought about before:
The abortion issue especially activates college educated White women because it gets at a deep status anxiety — any woman is just one unwanted pregnancy away from joining the “poor Whites”, the most derided, low-status group in the country.
I think that makes total sense. Abortion and access to birth control are what separate the middle class and upper-middle class career women from the "trashy whites." Women are deeply status conscious, so it makes sense that this has a major impact on the female vote.
I'm not yet convinced this is lost for Trump, but as I've posted before, I am concerned for the election and I think Trump is no longer the clear front runner.