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Bitcoin and Crypto Thread

Bitcoin is a speculative investment. Better repeat it. Bitcoin is a speculative investment. High risk high reward. Nobody should invest in bitcoin any money they can’t afford to lose. There’s is no such think as low risk high reward. Never have been never will be. Unless there’s criminality involved.
Risk is the probability of damage.
 
Whatever you think about BTC - its Trading Patterns follow the Fibonacci Rules governing all waves and cycles patterns in the Universe...

BTC Broke previous Major Blue Wave 3 All Time High of 69K above the 5th Wave 2.618 extension to 73K could test range of 3.618 82.5K to left Fib 1.0 84K range before the next major A-B-C corrective Waves Cycle.

Updated White Trend Channel (20K Above and Below original Mid RMS Trend Line) Intersected upper trend channel line this week at 73K new ATH. Probable ABC Retrace to the lower trend channel range of 48K to 50K previous orange b wave support target Autumn of 2024.

Upper Trend Channel Line now intersects major 2-3-4 Fibonacci Extension 1.618 126.6K end of May 2026.

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Bitcoin is a speculative investment. Better repeat it. Bitcoin is a speculative investment. High risk high reward. Nobody should invest in bitcoin any money they can’t afford to lose. There’s is no such think as low risk high reward. Never have been never will be. Unless there’s criminality involved.
Risk is the probability of damage.
I should have been more specific. Yes the risk is high, but the reward is astoundingly high. Bitcoin has a Sharpe ratio that blows everything else out of the water with a nuclear torpedo.

Thus a small allocation can provide the best of both: extremely low risk and high returns. My example of a 1% allocation being 40x less risky, and providing the same return as the S&P 500.

Yes that is based on historical data, but what new data refutes the Sharpe ratio of BTC?
 
I should have been more specific. Yes the risk is high, but the reward is astoundingly high. Bitcoin has a Sharpe ratio that blows everything else out of the water with a nuclear torpedo.

Thus a small allocation can provide the best of both: extremely low risk and high returns. My example of a 1% allocation being 40x less risky, and providing the same return as the S&P 500.

Yes that is based on historical data, but what new data refutes the Sharpe ratio of BTC?
Interesting Sharpe Ratio Chart:

1710265559775.png
 
A Ponzi is a scheme whereby investors are paid a phony return with the money from new investors. As you yourself continue to state: Bitcoin has no return. Under your definition, Gold is a Ponzi scheme.
Bernie Madoff's fund was a Ponzi. Social Security is a ponzi. Government bonds are a ponzi. Bitcoin by definition cannot be a ponzi, because there is no yeild.
I should have used different terminology. More accurately, Bitcoin is a "greater fool" asset or a type of pyramid scheme, since it can only produce a return for its owner by being sold for more than the initial purchase price. Gold, at the very least, can be melted down for jewelry, or simply used as the world's most expensive doorstop, since, you know, it actually exists in physical form. Conversely, Bitcoin provides zero utility to its owner except the hope for being sold for a higher price at a future date.
People who buy $70k Bitcoin today will sell at $200k.
For every seller, there is a buyer, and vice versa.
What is the guy who bought at $200k going to sell it for? And what is the guy who buys from him going to sell it for? Eventually you run out of buyers at these increasing price points, and you get a crash. So no, there is not a seller for every buyer and vice versa.
Ok, at least you sort of answered the question I posed 5 times, after saying it was a bad faith "gotcha". How is answering a question a gotcha? You are projecting, since I'm not accusing you of anything (your analogy of the beating question is an accusation). You don't look at this topic dispassionately, which is what I have shown, or you would answer. I'm assuming "I will never be wrong about BTC" is the answer. Just be a man and say it; it's fine since it's clear that's what your answer is.
But you're not asking that question because you're interested in my response, you're asking it because it's a rhetorical trick that Bitcoiners throw around to silence debate. Imagine if I just kept asking you like a broken record, "HEY BLADE RUNNER, WHAT WILL MAKE YOU ADMIT YOU'RE WRONG ABOUT BITCOIN?"

How are you supposed to answer that?

"If it crashes again?" (No)
"If the government cracks down hard on it?" (No)
"If the network is compromised in some manner?" (No)

The point is that there is no way I can get you to answer this question, because ultimately your belief in Bitcoin is irrational and faith-based. Even if Bitcoin dropped down to 1 cent and mining was punishable by the death penalty, you and chance vought would come here and say that you'd still buy Bitcoin because you believe in it. Similarly, I believe that Bitcoin is ultimately worthless and not worth investing in. The difference is that my position is not based on faith and delusion, it's based on the incontrovertible fact that Bitcoin is a greater fool asset by its very design, and that eventually you will run out of buyers for it as the price increases, causing a massive crash as everyone stampedes for the exits simultaneously.

But since it's a silly question, I'll give you an equally silly answer: when BTC is the world reserve currency and I can pay my taxes in it, I'll be a believer that you were right all along.

Let's say BTC isn't what chance or myself claim it is. Ok. But all it does is go up and to the right for decades, while you wait for it to crash to zero. At what point wouldn't you want to have 1000x gain, or 100x gains, or even 10x gains if you recognized something for at LEAST monetary value, even valued in fiat?
Are you seriously predicting a 10x anytime soon? Much less a 100x or a 1000x? Really???

I mean, I guess if that's what you honestly believe then your zealous pro-BTC position makes sense. But I think you're straight up delusional in that case. It's pure wishful thinking. All the big money has already been made in Bitcoin. You and chance vought are both very late to the party if you think you'll be making lifechanging money by HODLing.
 
More accurately, Bitcoin is a "greater fool" asset or a type of pyramid scheme, since it can only produce a return for its owner by being sold for more than the initial purchase price. Gold, at the very least, can be melted down for jewelry, or simply used as the world's most expensive doorstop, since, you know, it actually exists in physical form. Conversely, Bitcoin provides zero utility to its owner except the hope for being sold for a higher price at a future date.
You're right, but cash is also only worth something if someone is willing to buy
it's a rhetorical trick that Bitcoiners throw around to silence debate. Imagine if I just kept asking you like a broken record, "HEY BLADE RUNNER, WHAT WILL MAKE YOU ADMIT YOU'RE WRONG ABOUT BITCOIN?"

How are you supposed to answer that?

"If it crashes again?" (No)
"If the government cracks down hard on it?" (No)
"If the network is compromised in some manner?" (No)

The point is that there is no way I can get you to answer this question, because ultimately your belief in Bitcoin is irrational and faith-based. Even if Bitcoin dropped down to 1 cent and mining was punishable by the death penalty, you and chance vought would come here and say that you'd still buy Bitcoin because you believe in it.

1. If it crashed hard enough, say under $10-15k at this point, I'd wonder if I'm wrong
2. Under $5,000 and I'd be pretty bummed and start telling people I am wrong.
3. If adoption basically paused, and we are having this debate in 2034, and it's sitting at $50k, then I'd also admit I was wrong, and that I would have been better served taking my capital elsewhere.

If adoption stops where it is now, if it goes sideways indefinitely, then it has failed.
 
I should have used different terminology. More accurately, Bitcoin is a "greater fool" asset or a type of pyramid scheme, since it can only produce a return for its owner by being sold for more than the initial purchase price. Gold, at the very least, can be melted down for jewelry, or simply used as the world's most expensive doorstop, since, you know, it actually exists in physical form. Conversely, Bitcoin provides zero utility to its owner except the hope for being sold for a higher price at a future date.

What is the guy who bought at $200k going to sell it for? And what is the guy who buys from him going to sell it for? Eventually you run out of buyers at these increasing price points, and you get a crash. So no, there is not a seller for every buyer and vice versa.
Dollar is down 98% since 1913, there are still suckers willing to buy it.
"If it crashes again?" (No)
always crashes, trend is unchanged
"If the government cracks down hard on it?" (No)
that means we are winning, seriously winning. A government crackdown would give it more legitimacy and sell more Bitcoin, than Obama sold AR-15s
"If the network is compromised in some manner?" (No)
That would be bad, if it can’t be fixed.
and mining was punishable by the death penalty,
Bitcoin definitely winning if that’s the case!
you and chance vought would come here and say that you'd still buy Bitcoin because you believe in it. Similarly, I believe that Bitcoin is ultimately worthless and not worth investing in. The difference is that my position is not based on faith and delusion, it's based on the incontrovertible fact that Bitcoin is a greater fool asset by its very design, and that eventually you will run out of buyers for it as the price increases, causing a massive crash as everyone stampedes for the exits simultaneously.
Running out of buyers could mean everyone is using it. To us, Bitcoin is the exit. I will trade the slave chits for money.
But since it's a silly question, I'll give you an equally silly answer: when BTC is the world reserve currency and I can pay my taxes in it, I'll be a believer that you were right all along.

Counter proposal? A G20 nation uses it as a reserve asset? Or G7 nation? 2 G7 nations?
Are you seriously predicting a 10x anytime soon? Much less a 100x or a 1000x? Really???
Almost certain we will see 10x from 16k bottom.
10x from here, is possible…I think $1M is within reach by 2025…10% probability. $1M by 2030, 80% probability.
Keeping in mind that with 10% inflation, $1M in 2030 is $500k in todays dollars.
I mean, I guess if that's what you honestly believe then your zealous pro-BTC position makes sense. But I think you're straight up delusional in that case. It's pure wishful thinking. All the big money has already been made in Bitcoin. You and chance vought are both very late to the party if you think you'll be making lifechanging money by HODLing.
I honestly believe we are early.
There is a mountain. On top there are 21 million gold bars just laying on the ground there. @Blade Runner and I can only carry a few at a time. We are trying to tell everyone who will listen to just run up the mountain (learn about it), and grab as many as they can carry.

The fact that there are only a few other people going up the mountain to get the gold, means we are still early.
 
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But since it's a silly question, I'll give you an equally silly answer: when BTC is the world reserve currency and I can pay my taxes in it, I'll be a believer that you were right all along

You can already pay your taxes in crypto as recently as last year but you have to pay all of the fees to convert it to fiat , my accountant told me about this last year.

.


Are you seriously predicting a 10x anytime soon? Much less a 100x or a 1000x? Really???

I realize you have not been reading the whole thread but yes if you have a large net worth already like high six figures/low 7 figures you are most definitely better off just holding Bitcoin and forget the alt coins. Buy during a bear market, like 15,000, sell during the bull market (no idea how high that will be this cycle, people are predicting anywhere from 90000 to 500000).

I mean, I guess if that's what you honestly believe then your zealous pro-BTC position makes sense. But I think you're straight up delusional in that case. It's pure wishful thinking. All the big money has already been made in Bitcoin. You and chance vought are both very late to the party if you think you'll be making lifechanging money by HODLing.

It’s harder to do with just Bitcoin and ethereum . But most definitely possible with alt coins. I’m not doing it on my own I pay to be in multiple groups and the gains I’m getting are like nothing I would have thought possible.

And with all due respect Scorpion you seem to be trying to make a case without fully understanding the crypto market.

I never bother trying to talk about crypto in my daily life because only 5% of people actually hold any crypto and a lot of them just look at it as gambling , which it is. You can take calculated risks and you can definitely get better at reading charts

Right now the ai narrative in particular is taking off and we are in alt season .

More to the point I think almost nobody gets or understands cryptocurrency

Overall I think crypto is good because I’m much of the world fiat is not reliable. I’m not even talking about hyperinflation of the USA dollar, but that’s definitely happening. I’m more talking about your average schmuck in a third world shithole who does his job, gets paid in fiat but the inflation is so bad in his country he cannot actually get full value for the work he just did. He’s going to be ok with getting paid in a stable coin at a minimum.
 
What is the guy who bought at $200k going to sell it for?
$200.01K
And what is the guy who buys from him going to sell it for?
$200.02K
Eventually you run out of buyers at these increasing price points, and you get a crash. So no, there is not a seller for every buyer and vice versa.
Why? BTC is at $72K right now, but I can use CashApp to trade $10 US bux for 13,877 SATS (0.000138576763975 Bitcoin).

Adjust the numbers for $200K BTC and nothing changes. You never "run out of buyers" just like you never run out of buyers for fractional shares of Berkshire Hathaway at $610K.
 
Scorpion, I'm not sure why you're so hostile to it, when it's clearly a fantastic speculative asset at worst - I imagine it's because you're irritated by the evangelism of the maxis. However, you mentioned one can't make life changing money... that's not true. I invested at the bottom end of the bear market in Jan 2023 (I missed the absolute bottom by a few weeks) and already it's approx 4x that. Quadrupling your money within 14 months is life changing - and it's not even got close to the market top yet. Particularly if you're non risk averse and invest more than is conventially advised. 100x? Obviously not, but 10x or 20x? Certainly probable.
 
Particularly if you're non risk averse and invest more than is conventially advised. 100x? Obviously not, but 10x or 20x? Certainly probable.How much you buy should match your conviction.
If you are absolutely certain, 100%, that millions of people are delusional and it is worthless, then 0% allocation is correct.

I think 100x is possible and likely. If it doesn’t 100x eventually, it’s dead and I was wrong about Bitcoin. That’s $5M. 1000x is $50M per Bitcoin. That is a price target for me, so yes there is nearly 1000x left in this.

Bitcoin will take all the monetary premium out of things that are not money. Like the poor Argentines buying cinder blocks instead of holding pesos, people of the world buy other inferior assets as money. People will figure out it’s better to own BTC than government bonds, rare art that no one ever looks at in a Freeport warehouse, and owning shares of companies that hate you and only stay in business because they can borrow unlimited fake money.

1000x
 
Madoff lasted what? 20 years. Bitcoin can last even more. And it can go even higher with fractional.
A friend of mine texted me he owned 0,60 of a bitcoin.
It’s the same as a baseball card. As long as someone is looking to buy it. Even though a baseball card is something nice to look at.

Rationally it’s utter madness but people are not rational. They were standing in lines in the rain and cold to get an experimental shot for a disease with 0,1% of mortality rate. Corona vax crisis completely shattered my faith in people.

So yes bitcoin has no value. But this has nothing to do with its price. People can pay money for a useless rock if theres enough hype around it. It’s a brilliant scam. And it would be worth studying to teach in marketing schools.

You cannot argue with bitcoin fans. Cause they are making tremendous money. Out of a useless thing. And they want to make even more. Which will depend on the amount of suckers.

Emperor has no clothes and all that.

Probably one day it will be reminded has one of the best brilliant pyramid schemes ever made.

If you buy bitcoin you are gambling. But the payout can be good. I don’t like gambling or casinos. Even cards game like poker never interested me much. I don’t like alea.

Maybe if it reaches levels were public perception starts to worry government officials in terms of how much damage it can make. And affect the system. Then there might be some backlash or they shut it down completely.
 
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You cannot argue with bitcoin fans. Cause they are making tremendous money. Out of a useless thing. And they want to make even more. Which will depend on the amount of suckers.
Money is the most useful tool that humans use. Without money, there is no way to coordinate billions of peoples effort to produce things like pencils, iPhones, cars, and space ships. We would be living in tents chasing deer. Money is what enables complex civilization. Corrupted money destroys civilization: deviant society, unhealthy food, inferior products, and inferior artwork.
Emperor has no clothes and all that.
Are you referring to the Fiat ponzi? Because our money is less and less functional every year. If Bitcoin isn’t the solution to that problem, what is?
Maybe if it reaches levels were public perception starts to worry government officials in terms of how much damage it can make. And affect the system. Then there might be some backlash
Probable there will be backlash. However, Bitcoin isn’t destroying the fiat ponzi: fiat is destroying itself. Maybe it accelerates the destruction (Saylor strategy: borrow in depreciating fiat to buy Bitcoin)
or they shut it down completely.
Good luck with that. Can you shut down the Bible? No, because it is decentralized.
But what about shutting down the internet, and electricity? Again, good luck with that.
Would they be able to burn every single Bible, and then outlaw paper mills so we can’t print more?
It’s a decentralized cockroach that won’t die. The only thing that kills Bitcoin is if governments stop printing fake money.
 
Conversely, Bitcoin provides zero utility to its owner except the hope for being sold for a higher price at a future date.
Why won't you do the work to understand what something is? We've told you what the use cases are, and it provides much more utility than that. Heck, I even quoted Satoshis original emails that demonstrate what the use case of BTC/network is, and when we tell you, you act like you don't understand the English language.
Imagine if I just kept asking you like a broken record,
I have answered the question already, unlike you, and mine actually was in good faith. I'll take your answer, though it's meaningless, which was then also schlonged by our friend who also pointed out how you could pay your taxes with it, lol
Similarly, I believe that Bitcoin is ultimately worthless and not worth investing in.
The market doesn't agree with you. The largest computer network in the world, with increasing value and adoption, and a worldwide market that trades 24/7/365 - and let me get this straight - WE are the cultists? LOL, this is so much fun, since the delusion rests where it always did - within you.
Are you seriously predicting a 10x anytime soon?
Forget numbers, become dispassionate for a second, and just play along with me here. Humor me. Let's say in 2025 this bad boy is worth 500k, just for fun. What will you say? These are the kinds of things that make humans special. We can talk about these abstract ideas and they show a lot about the way we think and process the world. Are you going to just dig deeper (I've predicted this already) and yell at the world for being proven wrong over and over again, or are you going to actually spend time and effort studying what this is - something we have already done - which is why we tell you what we tell you.
That would be bad, if it can’t be fixed.
Like Raoul Pal told Peter Schiff recently, if adoption goes down to certain levels, that would be a sign that there might be a trouble spot or a foil to the network and its future.
So yes bitcoin has no value.
Again, the implication here is that you know something that people with TRILLIONS of dollars, and who risk that much money on it, don't. If that's not funny or delusional to you, then I can't help you much. Think of it, you're not saying it's worth less, you're saying it has NO VALUE. 🤡
You cannot argue with bitcoin fans.
When you don't present arguments or logical statements, of course not.
The only thing that kills Bitcoin is if governments stop printing fake money.
That makes the numbers less fun, indeed, but it still won't kill BTC.
 
Scorpion, I'm not sure why you're so hostile to it, when it's clearly a fantastic speculative asset at worst - I imagine it's because you're irritated by the evangelism of the maxis. However, you mentioned one can't make life changing money... that's not true. I invested at the bottom end of the bear market in Jan 2023 (I missed the absolute bottom by a few weeks) and already it's approx 4x that. Quadrupling your money within 14 months is life changing - and it's not even got close to the market top yet. Particularly if you're non risk averse and invest more than is conventially advised. 100x? Obviously not, but 10x or 20x? Certainly probable.
What I find irritating is the combination of delusion, hubris and greed masked under the guise of promoting a revolutionary technology to liberate mankind from the oppressive banking system. To be blunt, it's just a bunch of bullshit. Every dollar that someone has "made" on Bitcoin has been taken directly out of another man's pocket. And that's the way it always will be, because that's how a speculative greater fool asset works. It is decentralized pyramid scheme that all Bitcoiners jointly hype up, each one looking around nervously the entire time but confident he will beat the others to the exits when the time comes to sell and the stampede out the door begins.

And unless your risk management is way out of whack, a 4x shouldn't be lifechanging money. This is another problem I have with Bitcoin - it mostly attracts guys who are desperate financially and think that gambling everything is the only way they can get ahead. And most of them end up losing what little they have.
Why won't you do the work to understand what something is? We've told you what the use cases are, and it provides much more utility than that. Heck, I even quoted Satoshis original emails that demonstrate what the use case of BTC/network is, and when we tell you, you act like you don't understand the English language.
Bitcoin was designed as a peer-to-peer payment system, but is now promoted as essentially a form of digital gold, which Bitcoiners claim will emerge from the ashes of the collapsing financial system as the new global monetary standard. This is so far beyond anything Satoshi designed or envisioned that it's utterly laughable. It's like claiming that an ordinary house cat can turn into a tiger if enough people just believe it will.
I have answered the question already, unlike you, and mine actually was in good faith. I'll take your answer, though it's meaningless, which was then also schlonged by our friend who also pointed out how you could pay your taxes with it, lol
By this logic I can also pay my taxes in horse manure, comic books and old vinyl records, by first converting them to fiat. Schlonged!
The market doesn't agree with you. The largest computer network in the world, with increasing value and adoption, and a worldwide market that trades 24/7/365 - and let me get this straight - WE are the cultists? LOL, this is so much fun, since the delusion rests where it always did - within you.
Bitcoin is like a transwoman. No matter how vociferously you claim otherwise, and no matter how many people echo your enthusiasm, she (he) will never be a real woman. Likewise, Bitcoin will never have any actual value. What you are buying is a shared delusion that there is something magical about the Bitcoin name, because the technology itself is absolutely nothing special, it can and already has been not only replicated but improved upon. If crypto truly is a game-changing innovation, then it will, like all technologies, be massively improved upon in the years and decades to come. There is absolutely no logical reason to believe that Bitcoin - which again, I remind you, has value only as a brand name - will maintain relevance in the face of future challengers.
Forget numbers, become dispassionate for a second, and just play along with me here. Humor me. Let's say in 2025 this bad boy is worth 500k, just for fun. What will you say? These are the kinds of things that make humans special. We can talk about these abstract ideas and they show a lot about the way we think and process the world. Are you going to just dig deeper (I've predicted this already) and yell at the world for being proven wrong over and over again, or are you going to actually spend time and effort studying what this is - something we have already done - which is why we tell you what we tell you.
If Bitcoin is 500k in 2025 I will say, "Well, I guess I missed out on that trade." But what if Bitcoin is 5k or below in 2025? What will YOU say? There's really no point asking these hypotheticals, though. As magoo pointed out, we're just a couple of years removed from the world collectively losing its mind over the flu and billions of people willingly allowing themselves to be injected with an experimental jab. There is no limit to the utter stupidity and insanity of mankind, so it doesn't surprise me that plenty of people have been taken in by the siren's song of Bitcoin.

But what will be, will be. Most people will end up losing money on it. A much smaller number will come out ahead. But the rosy future for Bitcoin you guys envision will assuredly not come to pass.

No, this time is not different.
 
IMG_1148.jpeg

This is the exit.
Fiat will collapse, it always has. No one ever had a way out before.
The most brilliant minds of the computer age did not create this in order to upset Mastercard’s business model.
It was to save civilization during the death throes of Fiat money.
It’s inscribed in the very first block: EThe Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks

Why do you think he chose to put that in the first block?
 
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