Bitcoin and Crypto Thread

[Australia Sucks]

Bitcoin has no intrinsic value. And in terms of being superior to other crypto assets its superiority mainly springs from network effect and having the highest number of users. Any other positive qualities of Bitcoin are easily replicate-able by other coins. But like I said another coin would have to be an order of magnitude better to surmount this hurdle and overtake Bitcoin.

But relying on network effect that is the technology equivalent of when manufacturing companies are overly reliant on patents. The patents buy you time but ultimately if you don't keep innovating you lose out.

 

[Australia Sucks]

You don't understand the BTC network and the world you keep using, "value."

I understand the Bitcoin network reasonably well. What is it exactly you think i do not understand about the Bitcoin network?

 

[chance vought]

I have already said that I own some Bitcoin and gold. Because both have strengths and weaknesses. Bitcoin is superior to gold in many aspects, faster, more portable, more divisible, etc.

More scarce, cheaper to store, harder to steal. By orders of magnitude.

Bitcoin has no intrinsic value. And in terms of being superior to other crypto assets its superiority mainly springs from network effect and having the highest number of users. Any other positive qualities of Bitcoin are easily replicate-able by other coins. But like I said another coin would have to be an order of magnitude better to surmount this hurdle and overtake Bitcoin.

Which is why gold is collapsing. Bitcoin is orders better and is in the process of demonetizing gold (and every other money.)

But relying on network effect that is the technology equivalent of when manufacturing companies are overly reliant on patents. The patents buy you time but ultimately if you don't keep innovating you lose out.

Worked for gold…

But Gold has a level of anonymity that Bitcoin does not and its also a physical asset so if the grid/internet ever gets disrupted you can still pull out your gold and trade it.

In person, everything can be anonymous. We have a global economy. Did you anonymously support the Freedom Convoy with gold, or anything that has to touch banks?

Bitcoin incentivizes the grid to never go down. It incentivizes power production. It will prevent the collapse of what we need for civilization.

I believe people should own both gold and bitcoin which is what I do.

If you own Bitcoin, you are 99% there and all this is just fun internet academics.

 

[scorpion]

NFTs and affinity scam coins are not digital scarcity.

@scorpion How long until people wake up and decide Bitcoin is worthless? Is there a price level or hash rate that would mean death?

How am I supposed to know? What kind of question is that? All I can tell you is that by its very design, Bitcoin is literally no different than a stock or bond which is guaranteed to never pay any dividend/coupon to its owner. It is therefore only able to create a return for its owner by being sold to another party. By definition this renders it a completely speculative asset, as it cannot generate any return in and of itself. This means that Bitcoin is basically just a financial fad, and it will continue to attract buyers and holders to one degree or another for as long as people believe they will be able to unload their bags on someone else for a higher price in the future. This was exactly the case for NFTs as well, as is the case for most shitcoins. The only thing Bitcoin has going for it whatsoever is its brand name recognition

As somebody who owns Bitcoin for all the weaknesses Bitcoin has even the Bitcoin sceptics (of which I am one despite owning Bitcoin) have to admit that it is superior to fiat and if somebody put a gun to your head and said "for the next 5 years all your wealth must either be stored in fiat or in Bitcoin, choose only one option" almost everybody here would choose Bitcoin. What about you Scorpian which option would you choose?

The question is not Bitcoin versus fiat, it's Bitcoin versus proven assets like stocks and real estate. The very reason these things attract investment is because they are inherently valuable and create a return for their owners. Even in an inflationary environment, over time these assets will hold their value. Bitcoin, in contrast, cannot provide its owner any direct return on investment, and must be sold to another sucker in the future. This is why Bitcoin proponents are so zealous about evangelizing for it - their return on investment can only be secured by encouraging new people to buy in.

As I think I put back on the old forum or here, until you can tell me when you'll be wrong, you're fundamentally dishonest intellectually about BTC. I don't think he ever answered before, and as the old arab proverb goes, "Silence is an answer."

Point out exactly where I've been "intellectually dishonest". Everything I've said about Bitcoin is factually true, especially in regard to its value being completely untethered from anything except the stubborn delusions of its hodlers and its brand name.

Do you consider Wall Street and the stock market to be replaceable and obsolete and a cult of rich assholes?

It may be full of rich jerks but yeah. So are banks. They are all crooks. But you don’t think banks serve a purpose either?

I'm not really sure what you're getting at here. Is Wall Street full of crooks and are the big banks corrupt? Of course. Does that therefore make Bitcoin valuable and some kind of financial panacea? Absolutely not. The conclusion does not follow.

Which is why gold is collapsing. Bitcoin is orders better and is in the process of demonetizing gold (and every other money.)

It is thoroughly dishonest to claim that the price of gold is collapsing because you're currently measuring it in Bitcoins rather than USD. Funnily enough, I didn't see you measuring the price of gold in Bitcoins a few years ago after the price tanked.

Bitcoin incentivizes the grid to never go down. It incentivizes power production. It will prevent the collapse of what we need for civilization.

This is utterly absurd. We already have more than enough incentive to ensure that the grid never goes down considering that electricity powers our entire modern civilization, and that without it somewhere between 80-90% of our population would be dead within a year. We do not need BTC to prevent grid collapse whatsoever. The reality is that Bitcoin mining is a complete and utter waste of electricity, a fact which I believe will attract more scrutiny in the future from both the climate zealots (unjustified) and what I believe will be a near-exponential growth in demand for computing power due to widespread commercial and industrial adoption of AI. And unlike Bitcoin, AI actually creates value and performs meaningful work for society.

 

[eradicator]

 

[chance vought]

How am I supposed to know? What kind of question is that? All I can tell you is that by its very design, Bitcoin is literally no different than a stock or bond which is guaranteed to never pay any dividend/coupon to its owner. It is therefore only able to create a return for its owner by being sold to another party. By definition this renders it a completely speculative asset, as it cannot generate any return in and of itself.

It isn’t an investment. It is money. People stuck in fiat land are desperate for returns, to beat inflation. Bitcoin has inflation trending to 0.

The question is not Bitcoin versus fiat, it's Bitcoin versus proven assets like stocks and real estate.

It is Bitcoin vs value itself. Fiat, stocks, bonds, real estate. All of monetary premium that these things have accrued (stocks at PE of 50+), will be swallowed by the black hole of Bitcoin.

The very reason these things attract investment is because they are inherently valuable and create a return for their owners. Even in an inflationary environment, over time these assets will hold their value. Bitcoin, in contrast, cannot provide its owner any direct return on investment, and must be sold to another sucker in the future. This is why Bitcoin proponents are so zealous about evangelizing for it - their return on investment can only be secured by encouraging new people to buy in.

The function of money is not “for selling to another sucker”, without it civilization is not possible.

Point out exactly where I've been "intellectually dishonest". Everything I've said about Bitcoin is factually true, especially in regard to its value being completely untethered from anything except the stubborn delusions of its hodlers and its brand name.

Value comes from individuals, not some exterior, quantifiable measurement. People decide what is valuable, and individuals value different things. The net measurement of value is the price. The relative value of one money over another, is how well it serves the role of money.
Recommended reading: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show...arch=true&from_srp=true&qid=tNPv0P4QX5&rank=1

Important properties:
1. A large network. The more people that use it as money, the more useful/valuable it is.
2. Cost of production: If it is expensive to create more money, it will hold its value (gold vs copper, for example)
3. Transaction cost, security, divisibility, etc.

It is thoroughly dishonest to claim that the price of gold is collapsing because you're currently measuring it in Bitcoins rather than USD. Funnily enough, I didn't see you measuring the price of gold in Bitcoins a few years ago after the price tanked.

Gold surged against Bitcoin for a 12 month period, and is now continuing its downward trend. Bitcoin has collapsed 100 times, but the trend is in one direction.
Measuring in Fiat is a lie. The USD is less of a lie than the Egyptian pound, or Argentine peso, but it is still dishonest weights and measures.

This is utterly absurd. We already have more than enough incentive to ensure that the grid never goes down considering that electricity powers our entire modern civilization, and that without it somewhere between 80-90% of our population would be dead within a year.

I agree, but there are vulnerabilities that government has no incentive to fix.

We do not need BTC to prevent grid collapse whatsoever. The reality is that Bitcoin mining is a complete and utter waste of electricity,

This is nonsense. Who are you to decide what is a waste of electricity? People value different things. Bitcoin mining is not wasteful to the people using electricity to do it, or they wouldn’t be buying electricity. Nor is it wasteful to the users of Bitcoin.

a fact which I believe will attract more scrutiny in the future from both the climate zealots (unjustified) and what I believe will be a near-exponential growth in demand for computing power due to widespread commercial and industrial adoption of AI. And unlike Bitcoin, AI actually creates value and performs meaningful work for society.

Yes, there are already government bootlickers trying to tax and penalize Bitcoin miners to protect their own industries. Luckily Bitcoin miners have enough money to fight back.

https://www.tftc.io/riot-temporary-restraining-order-against-department-of-energy/

If AI industry want electricity, let them buy it on the free market like everyone else has to.

As far as creating value: we can’t have civilization without money.

There is a chance that I’m completely wrong, I accept that. Are you 100% sure that Bitcoin is worthless? If only 99% sure, maybe you should have a 1% allocation to BTC!

 

[eradicator]

Scorpion just curious. I assumed you were about my age for some reason. I’m in my 40s. If you’re in your 50s or 60s this might make a bit more sense.

I tried explaining crypto to my dad over the holidays. Burning energy to farm on the blockchain and so on. He calls it a video game. And he’s no slouch intellectually, a physicist . But I think most people in general don’t get crypto currency, especially older people. Not an insult but I don’t really talk about crypto in my every day life unless people are asking for advice. For the normies I tell them “buy btc but be ready to hodl into the next cycle if you get rugged”. That seems like the safest advice I can give

 

[Uncle Cr33pin]

 

[Deepdiver]

I was primarily asked to re-join this forum from the old one to provide my TA and Trading Insights gained over a lifetime.

Pro Tip before you make any investment RUN THE CHARTS to visually see Optimal Entry and Exit Points or Ranges and not swim against the tides.

Here are this week's ETH and BTC Charts:
(Let Me Know of any other Crypto or Equities Charts you would like to know about - Cryptos here and Stocks in the Stock Market Topic.)

ETH Looks like both a Minor (Orange) 5 Sub-Wave and Major (Blue) 5 Wave Top forming that tested 4000 and is referred to as a 5 Wave 5th IS NOW likely turning to the indicated Blue Dashed 3000 TO 2375 Retrace Range of the entire 5th Major Blue Wave leg:


BTC Broke out of a long-term Trend Line (White) of Resistance at 52.4K shooting all the way up to 70,199 making a dramatic impulsing new ATH.
If BTC Builds Support in the 58K to 66K range then left large Fibonacci Ladder 1.0 84K and 1.618 126K likely with the right 5th Fib Ladder 2.618, 3.618 and 4.618 providing interim Resistance/Support Levels.

 

[scorpion]

It isn’t an investment. It is money. People stuck in fiat land are desperate for returns, to beat inflation. Bitcoin has inflation trending to 0.

You say that Bitcoin is money, but the VAST majority of people buying and HODLing it do not view it as money. They view it as a speculative asset that will substantially appreciate in price and make them wealthy in the future, which is the entire reason they're buying it in the first place. Further, Bitcoin is a laughably inefficient currency and cannot even begin to reasonably function as a globally scalable monetary solution without substantial L2 modifications, the criticisms of which Cynllo has already laid out in detail.

It is Bitcoin vs value itself. Fiat, stocks, bonds, real estate. All of monetary premium that these things have accrued (stocks at PE of 50+), will be swallowed by the black hole of Bitcoin.

This does not make a lick of sense. It's like saying that baseball bats are going to replace spoons. Bitcoin has nothing to do with stocks and bonds, these are assets with completely different functions in the financial system.

This is nonsense. Who are you to decide what is a waste of electricity? People value different things. Bitcoin mining is not wasteful to the people using electricity to do it, or they wouldn’t be buying electricity. Nor is it wasteful to the users of Bitcoin.

Given that electric grids will come under increasing strain in the near-future due to a number of factors (the increasing adoption of EVs, extensive corporate and government investment in AI computing power, the replacement of reliable base load nuclear and natural gas power generation with unreliable solar and wind, just to name a few) it seems likely that Bitcoin's massive electricity demands will soon come under heavy political/regulatory scrutiny. You can cry all you want about the injustice of this, but the reality is that BTC mining is absolutely and inarguably a waste when compared to other things we use electricity for to enable modern civilization (i.e. air conditioning, refrigeration, lighting, etc...)

I tried explaining crypto to my dad over the holidays. Burning energy to farm on the blockchain and so on. He calls it a video game. And he’s no slouch intellectually, a physicist . But I think most people in general don’t get crypto currency, especially older people.

I'm an older millennial, born early 80s. I have one foot in the pre-internet world and another in the post-internet world, and first remember reading about Bitcoin in 2010. It's true that most older people will be reflexively anti-Bitcoin simply because they don't understand it. But you can still understand Bitcoin and think it's not worth investing in. The fact remains that the only way to make money with Bitcoin is to sell it to someone else for more than you paid for it. Bitcoin does not throw off dividends or rents. It serves no practical purpose. It just sits there waiting to be unloaded to some other sucker.

A lot of younger people probably think that they get crypto in a way that older people don't, but the reality is that they simply don't really understand the financial system nearly as well as they think they do. They don't understand the difference between price and value. They don't understand the difference between an asset and a speculative trading vehicle. Hell, chance vought apparently doesn't even understand the difference between stocks and Bitcoin! There is also a large subset of younger guys who mistakenly view crypto as the only realistic opportunity they have for getting ahead financially, which is very unfortunate, and which will result in most of them losing money.

 

[chance vought]

You say that Bitcoin is money, but the VAST majority of people buying and HODLing it do not view it as money. They view it as a speculative asset that will substantially appreciate in price and make them wealthy in the future, which is the entire reason they're buying it in the first place. Further, Bitcoin is a laughably inefficient currency and cannot even begin to reasonably function as a globally scalable monetary solution without substantial L2 modifications, the criticisms of which Cynllo has already laid out in detail.

@Cynllo has probably never used LN, or Bitcoin, as much as I have. I would guess that I use Bitcoin more than anyone else here.
Don’t be so sure that it can’t work, when you have never even used it.
Inefficient, compared to what, exactly? IIRC a recent BTC transaction of $30M was made for $0.80. Even if it costs 1000x that in the future, nothing else comes close.
Yes it will need L2, and L3 to scale. Just like every other base money needed layers in order to scale!

This does not make a lick of sense. It's like saying that baseball bats are going to replace spoons. Bitcoin has nothing to do with stocks and bonds, these are assets with completely different functions in the financial system.

Stocks, real estate, and bonds are priced higher than they should be, because they have taken on monetary premium. There is no reason to buy a stock with a 50 PE, or even no PE, or a 5% dividend, unless the money is so broken you are forced to. If money held its value, these assets would be priced much lower - they would still exist. Depending on the industry, a 10% or even 20% dividend would be appropriate compensation for the risk being taken. These things are money substitutes now. The price is higher because some of that price is monetary premium. The Dollar has 100% monetary premium. Its only function is as money - but that has value. That extra value will flow to Bitcoin. It has for 15 years.

Chinese are buying unfurnished apartments in uninhabited cities, because real estate there has a very large monetary premium, since their money is even worse than ours, and their stock market is much riskier with low returns. The only place for people to save is real estate.

Stocks will not go to 0, because they have value besides being money. Fiat currencies will go to 0, because all of their value is monetary premium.

Given that electric grids will come under increasing strain in the near-future due to a number of factors (the increasing adoption of EVs, extensive corporate and government investment in AI computing power, the replacement of reliable base load nuclear and natural gas power generation with unreliable solar and wind, just to name a few) it seems likely that Bitcoin's massive electricity demands will soon come under heavy political/regulatory scrutiny. You can cry all you want about the injustice of this, but the reality is that BTC mining is absolutely and inarguably a waste when compared to other things we use electricity for to enable modern civilization (i.e. air conditioning, refrigeration, lighting, etc...)

Exactly why Bitcoin fixes the coming crisis. Grids are being poisoned with unreliable generation. With more wind and solar, more base load is required, unless you add more peaker plants. There needs to be a dynamic demand to absorb excess generation. Otherwise, electricity is simply shunted into heatsinks and dissipated into water or atmosphere as waste heat. Up to 50% of power generation is simply wasted during off peak times, and this number can be higher with more wind and solar in the mix. If it isn’t used, frequency goes up until stations start tripping offline and the entire grid starts to go.

Bitcoin mining is the only industrial use of electricity that can go from 0% to 100%, and back to 0% almost immediately. It is the perfect industry for grid balancing.

A lot of younger people probably think that they get crypto in a way that older people don't, but the reality is that they simply don't really understand the financial system nearly as well as they think they do. They don't understand the difference between price and value. They don't understand the difference between an asset and a speculative trading vehicle. Hell, chance vought apparently doesn't even understand the difference between stocks and Bitcoin! There is also a large subset of younger guys who mistakenly view crypto as the only realistic opportunity they have for getting ahead financially, which is very unfortunate, and which will result in most of them losing money.

I understand Bitcoin is not a stock, just like dollars are not stocks. Money is an A/B test. If money B is better than A, money A will lose its monetary premium to B.

The USD is more accepted in Argentina than their peso, because it is obviously better. People may not understand what’s happening, but it happens anyway.

 

[Cynllo]

The VAST majority of people buying and HODLing it do not view it as money. They view it as a speculative asset that will substantially appreciate in price and make them wealthy in the future, which is the entire reason they're buying it in the first place.

I have been holding since 2013 and have never viewed the current situation as more than this. This stuff is not used for much more than speculation and there is not a dramatic change to that on the horizon. It is used as currency, but sparingly compared to gambling, and people are more likely to use some form as USDT. I send payments in cryptocurrency, and I do prefer it, because it's permissionless, cheaper and more transparent. Two people I send to are Russian citizens, so there is a big plus. I have a rouble account, but the rouble transfer form is extremely bureaucratic and now has a $200 fee to use.

Your argument about real wealth is critical. Fiat currencies have the value of goods they are exchanged for. Bitcoin or something else has to eventually be tethered to real wealth to merit its value. In the same ways these overvalued PE stocks need to grow to justify those valuations.

The value of Bitcoin is mostly that the price goes up, and that's the only reason I ever bought it. And I don't think I've bought it since 2017 or received it as payment since about 2020-21 (Monero is now the standard there). There are some other values - like being permissionless, portable etc. But the main utility right now and the foreseeable future is the price goes up mechanism.

I see the space panning out in two ways eventually - as Bitcoin was intended, but not capable of realising - as a base layer of money; and as Ethereum was intended, but is not capable or realising - as a base layer for applications. This is what people are saying they are trying to do - if they can't do that, then the coins have no value.

@Cynllo has probably never used LN, or Bitcoin, as much as I have. I would guess that I use Bitcoin more than anyone else here.
Don’t be so sure that it can’t work, when you have never even used it.

I've not used LN and don't think it's necessary. I can understand the setup of various chains from reading an overview. I was surprised just how flimsy of a network it is. I'm sure it works most of the time, but that is still vastly inferior to even a low-tier ETH L2, which has never had the issues that LN has. It is more secure to use wrapped BTC on Polygon than use LN.

I was heavy ETH in 2020-21, presuming it would out-perform BTC, as there were now many projects that needed ETH to work. But it was very obvious that ETH was incapable of doing what we thought it should by 2021. I'm not sure of anyone who saw that coming, though it really should have been. So when Lightning Network came along and we saw the prospect of some sort of layers on top of BTC, I became more interested in that narrative. And from about a year ago I got into the BTC sidechain Stacks, which is billed as Ethereum on top of Bitcoin. I didn't necessarily see it as a long-term play, but it was and is a hot narrative. But now I have done enough reading to see that there is no such thing as an L2. To be an L2 that preserves the base chain's properties, it would need to write TXs to the base chain before validating them on the L2. And all L2s/sidechains do the opposite of that. Hence, they serve no purpose. Systems like Polygon, LN and Stacks are all separate chains with vastly inferior security to BTC, that proponents bill as handling most of the TXs. In reality, you have two separate chains that would both need a large network to be viewed as high security.

All transactions have to occur on the base layer, or not at all. Whatever chain solves this issue at scale wins.

That is not to say it would be impossible for Bitcoin to gain adoption with sidechains. It just doesn't make technical sense. And it makes technical sense that there will be chains that have or will emerge that can provide the security level of Bitcoin with much less electricity and much more throughput.

But I think the most likely scenario is that the market cap of Bitcoin will continue to grow until a chain emerges that fulfils the goals of both ETH and BTC and begins gaining adoption.

 

[Blade Runner]

The question is not Bitcoin versus fiat, it's Bitcoin versus proven assets like stocks and real estate.

Interesting. It's outperforming both. It is scarce, unlike both, and can't be increased past a certain level, unlike both. It doesn't decay. It doesn't get taxed, necessarily, by a jurisdiction. Stocks can go to zero and be diluted. Real Estate can too. If you've done your homeowork on BTC, why do I have to tell you these principles over and over?

Point out exactly where I've been "intellectually dishonest". Everything I've said about Bitcoin is factually true, especially in regard to its value being completely untethered from anything except the stubborn delusions of its hodlers and its brand name.

You proved my point to the maximum here; you responded again without actually telling me when you'll be wrong about BTC, which was the statement you were supposed to be responding to. I'll take that as another win. If we go another 3 years and people value BTC at $1 million USD or 500 ounces of gold, or whatever you want to refer to, will you still say we're "wrong" and you're "right"? At what point do you stop denying markets, reality, etc?

A lot of younger people probably think that they get crypto in a way that older people don't, but the reality is that they simply don't really understand the financial system nearly as well as they think they do. They don't understand the difference between price and value. They don't understand the difference between an asset and a speculative trading vehicle. Hell, chance vought apparently doesn't even understand the difference between stocks and Bitcoin! There is also a large subset of younger guys who mistakenly view crypto as the only realistic opportunity they have for getting ahead financially, which is very unfortunate, and which will result in most of them losing money.

We've shown you are just grasping and bloviating with these types of comments. You don't understand value by definition.

I'll see you at new ATH, then I'll see you at the newer ATH. The fun part of this is that you'll still be screaming at the clouds while we ask you to repent.

 

[eradicator]

You might not even realize it but you have a point scorpion.


95% of all crypto holders get completely wrecked and lose all of their money as they see gains and go into a state of euphoria. They think the prices will not cone down and get rugged.

I’ve been looking at a lot of charts and while the cycles do not match exactly they do rhyme.

Front-running definitely happens: last cycle people were looking at their Bitcoin, and said” when it gets to 100,000 then I will sell”. That never happened. The high was 69k and only very briefly . All of those guys hodling for 100k are still hodling 4 years later

Same for most of these coins. Look at a meme like doge coin. People looked at their doge and says “when it gets to $1 I will sell” but it never got to a dollar. The whale front runners decided to sell and get out,

We almost certainly will see something like that this cycle. Maybe the ETFs and billionaires see btc get to 90k or so and just bail, turn their btc billions into stablecoin and just take their profits and re buy in 2 years, because a lot of people are saying “when btc gets to 120k I will sell” or 150k or whatever , the billionaires will likely be working together and have a plan, retail investors will get wrecked and 95% of crypto holders will lose money.

The only way around this is to dollar cost average both on the way in and the way out.

Rotate to either stocks or newer coins . Everyone is already looking for this cycles axie infinity. It arrived very late into the cycle and was a solid project, it’s still a market cap over $1 billion . But it peaked 6 months later than the rest of the market including Bitcoin.

Let’s say I’ve been hodling my cryptos like my kaspa and alph and aitech, and figure if I just time my exit good I can turn my 100,000 into $2million if it time my exit good. A 20x is a conservative goal from here.

While that may be true I have no interest in trying to time my exit good. I would almost certainly get wrecked

Instead I’ll be dca out at $1m or less and dca into the new coins that I have not even heard of yet and try to turn that $1m into 10 or $20million 6 months later by dca into this cycle of axie infinity or similar coins.

Here’s the axie infinity chart with a high in november 2021.




Btc peaked about 6 months prior as long with almost all alt coins.


This is a long winded way of saying “if you hodl forever you will get wrecked”. Hopefully you all have some sort of plan

 

[chance vought]

I have been holding since 2013 and have never viewed the current situation as more than this.

respect!

Your argument about real wealth is critical. Fiat currencies have the value of goods they are exchanged for. Bitcoin or something else has to eventually be tethered to real wealth to merit its value. In the same ways these overvalued PE stocks need to grow to justify those valuations.

The only thing it needs to do to merit its value: maintain its security, and its fixed supply. That is all. That is the value.
How money came to be. Wampum shells or gold...it was an emergent phenomenon. No government approved it, no one held a meeting to decide what would be money. People made individual decisions, based on what other people were likely to always accept. Gold being pretty may be what attracted the first people to it, but it is not how it became valuable. The network of trade that it enabled is how it grew in value, and attained a monetary premium.

The value of Bitcoin is mostly that the price goes up, and that's the only reason I ever bought it.

That was the shiny part that told you to pick it up and collect it. Maybe someone else will want this.

But the main utility right now and the foreseeable future is the price goes up mechanism.

Yes, and when 1st world currencies are inflating at 15%, that is a great utility!

All transactions have to occur on the base layer, or not at all. Whatever chain solves this issue at scale wins.

Lightning is just a multi-sig pre-signed BTC transaction. I can always close out a channel and take my BTC to the main chain: the channel partner has already pre-signed the transaction.
With one on-chain transaction, I can make infinite lightning transactions. Either channel partner can close the channel and take their remaining balance on-chain.
Banks do not settle every transaction between them via Swift. They batch them and settle thousands in one, at the end of the day, or week. LN works in a similar way, except there is no need for final settlement at the end of the day, but there can be if you so choose. So, LN does not scale to 8 Billion people, but it does scale to hundreds of millions.
LN is just the beginning of scaling.

But I think the most likely scenario is that the market cap of Bitcoin will continue to grow until a chain emerges that fulfils the goals of both ETH and BTC and begins gaining adoption.

That is possible, but if Bitcoin has enough adoption, it would make more sense to change Bitcoin to meet the needs of the users, instead of scrapping it and starting over. Imagine changing the TCP/IP protocol, to a completely new one, that was not backwards compatible. The disruption would be insurmountable.

 

[chance vought]

 

[scorpion]

Interesting. It's outperforming both. It is scarce, unlike both, and can't be increased past a certain level, unlike both. It doesn't decay. It doesn't get taxed, necessarily, by a jurisdiction. Stocks can go to zero and be diluted. Real Estate can too. If you've done your homeowork on BTC, why do I have to tell you these principles over and over?

None of this changes the basic fact that Bitcoin generates zero return for its holder, and functions no differently than digital Ponzi assets like NFTs. Bitcoin is worthless without a continuous stream of new buyers to be bagholders. Conversely, owning shares of profitable companies (stocks) and cash-flow generating real estate will always have real value, regardless of temporary market fluctuation or inflation spikes.

You proved my point to the maximum here; you responded again without actually telling me when you'll be wrong about BTC, which was the statement you were supposed to be responding to. I'll take that as another win. If we go another 3 years and people value BTC at $1 million USD or 500 ounces of gold, or whatever you want to refer to, will you still say we're "wrong" and you're "right"? At what point do you stop denying markets, reality, etc?

I'm not wrong about BTC, because what I've been saying is an irrefutable fact that even honest BTC fans freely admit: namely, that Bitcoin is an intrinsically worthless Ponzi asset that generates no returns for its owner. If you can demonstrate some method whereby the Bitcoin you hold can produce returns without being sold to some unfortunate bagholder down the line, then you can say I'm wrong. Until then, like every other Bitcoin advocate, you're just talking your book and trying to bring new money into the BTC cult.

We've shown you are just grasping and bloviating with these types of comments. You don't understand value by definition.

I'll see you at new ATH, then I'll see you at the newer ATH. The fun part of this is that you'll still be screaming at the clouds while we ask you to repent.

Blade Runner, with all due respect, you're basically the poster child for the "unsophisticated investor who doesn't understand the financial system nearly as well as he thinks he does" I was referring to, just repeatedly spouting regurgitated Bitcoin boilerplate that you've swallowed hook, line and sinker, so I can only chuckle when you sit here thinking you're somehow "winning" or dunking on me with this nonsense. It's pretty obvious that you're counting on a Bitcoin moonshot to secure your financial future, which is why you say things like, "See you at the next ATH! Have fun staying poor!" etc... More than anyone else, you seem to be desperately trying to convince yourself that what you're saying is true, because if it isn't, well... you're pretty much screwed in that case, aren't you?

You're greedy, you're arrogant and you're not nearly as savvy as you think you are. It's a very bad combination, and unfortunately, I'm afraid it's not going to work out well for you.

 

[mountainaire]

Can we get a "Crypto for dummies" guide? I check this thread from time to time and it's so far over my head I might as well be looking at moon runes...

I'm sure I could do a web search and find something like that, but the "industry" seems to be filled with scams. I trust the posters here more. I need a Sesame Street style breakdown on where to buy it, how to store it, when to buy it, tax implications etc.

 

[eradicator]

Can we get a "Crypto for dummies" guide? I check this thread from time to time and it's so far over my head I might as well be looking at moon runes...

I'm sure I could do a web search and find something like that, but the "industry" seems to be filled with scams. I trust the posters here more. I need a Sesame Street style breakdown on where to buy it, how to store it, when to buy it, etc.

I’d suggest buying a Bitcoin etf. The etf managers will sort out all of that detail. You are less likely to get rugged and lose everything. I can tell you will definitely get rugged and time it wrong and lose money if you manage it all on your own. Honestly I think 90% of crypto holders would be better off just buying a btc etf

 

[cosine]

Did you anonymously support the Freedom Convoy with gold, or anything that has to touch banks?

This is a great point. Even in hideous situations like the covid lockdowns, no one ever actually begins using gold as a way to pay one another in any significant amount. Bitcoin isn't anonymous, but it is one way to actually pay people like the Freedom Convoy.