Bitcoin and Crypto Thread

[chance vought]

Can we get a "Crypto for dummies" guide? I check this thread from time to time and it's so far over my head I might as well be looking at moon runes...

https://darthcoin.substack.com/

There Is Bitcoin, and there is “crypto”.

Crypto is a scam, variations on a theme, but basically this: a small group of people create token that is “the next big thing“ that is sure to make you rich. Invariably the token solves a problem that no one ever thought needed solving. They keep most of the new token for themselves in a “foundation”, invite venture capitalists in first to add a lot of money for advertising, paying influencers on every platform to shill it etc, in exchange for some (most) of the tokens. Then they sell the 10% of remaining tokens to “retail”, who pay 100x what the VCs paid. Once enough retail is on the hook, and the hype about everything promised by the new token starts to wane, VCs start selling, using the retail rubes as exit liquidity and getting rich. Rinse and repeat, new token for “internet computer”, “cloud storage”, etc.

At first, crypto was trying to compete directly with Bitcoin, as money. Litecoin, Bitcoin Gold, Bitcoin Cash, faster transactions, cheaper transactions, etc. When it was clear that ship had sailed, and there would only be one money, the “blockchain technology” for everything scams started.

@Cynllo has figured out how to time this and ride the wave upwards, but it is like being the early person in a pyramid scheme.

I'm sure I could do a web search and find something like that, but the "industry" seems to be filled with scams. I trust the posters here more. I need a Sesame Street style breakdown on where to buy it, how to store it, when to buy it, tax implications etc.

Bitcoin is its own thing. No one controls it. It is like Linux. Anyone can propose changes, change the code, etc. People freely choose which version they want to run.

 

[chance vought]

I’d suggest buying a Bitcoin etf. The etf managers will sort out all of that detail. You are less likely to get rugged and lose everything. I can tell you will definitely get rugged and time it wrong and lose money if you manage it all on your own. Honestly I think 90% of crypto holders would be better off just buying a btc etf

@mountainaire this is good advice. The ETF will give you price exposure to “number go up”, while you learn.

If you want to buy easily right now with $10 or $10000, the Strike app is good and simple way to do it.


Self custody is daunting at first, but is necessary if you gain the knowledge and conviction to hold a significant portion of your wealth in this.

Having a Bitcoin IOU is like being a depositor at a bank (did you know, bank depositors do not have title to the money? Legally, you are now a creditor, and the money belongs to the bank.). Except, if they lose the Bitcoin, the government can’t just print more Bitcoin.

There are many scenarios that could happen. ETFs are a honeypot that the government can seize when their currency starts collapsing. The custodian could steal the funds, or have them stolen. I’m not saying don’t buy it, I own some of the ETF in a retirement account, But that is money I have written off already. I have no way of converting it out, so I may as well get the gains. If I retire and the money is still there, that will be a bonus. Stocks have the same risk. You don’t own the stock in your brokerage account. You are essentially an unsecured creditor.

 

[Joost]

None of this changes the basic fact that Bitcoin generates zero return for its holder, and functions no differently than digital Ponzi assets like NFTs. Bitcoin is worthless without a continuous stream of new buyers to be bagholders. Conversely, owning shares of profitable companies (stocks) and cash-flow generating real estate will always have real value, regardless of temporary market fluctuation or inflation spikes.

I agree with 99% of what you say. What upsets me is seeing young gamblers thinking they’re sophisticated investors. They use historical data to predict price (every brokerage has a disclaimer about it).

I met one young professional who lost all his savings during the crypto bubble (where +99% loss was common). I told him:
- you’re still young (~27). You still have decades to recover. Imagine if you were in your 60s. Now take that as a lesson. Do not gamble more money than you are able to lose.

We have the problem of the internet where the survival bias shows young and rich as normal and easy attainable status. “Just follow my recipe. If you’re not rich, you’re worthless”.
Everybody can reach financial comfort/stability if they have time and obviously, saves money.

Stocks and RE are great. Stocks being passive is awesome but has its risks. Same with RE, but at least you can touch it and the risk of going to zero is…almost zero. As for stocks, you never know if your pick will be Enron.

I could talk or write another dozen pages but you get the idea.

The 1% I don’t agree with you is that Bitcoin is worthless. I think the deflationary policy is a nice experiment and so far is doing great. I think it’s a good tool against the Jew debasing our currency. It’s a tool against the “system”. A good way to go off-grid. It’s uncensorable money. You can be in North Korea and nobody can take your bitcoins from you. It can be cumbersome but it’s better than swallowing diamonds. You can even memorize 12 words to recover your wallet.

I hate the people it’s attracting now (“buy BTC, I’m HODLing…). Like you say, only the Greater Fool Theory.

 

[magoo]

Owen Benjamin posted on his telegram channel a video of a drug dealer talking about crypto. He said bitcoin can be traced. According to the dealer Monero is the only untraceable. To me I´m 100% sure all crypto are traceable. And if you don´t feel it. YET. The reason is simple. They want you to think it´s untraceable. Because it´s in their advantage that you use it. Why they want you to use it? Sooner or later we will find out.

I don´t own crypto. Never owned crypto. Will never own crypto. And generally dislike crypto people. Exception to Blade Runner. Writes interesting info.

If you can send crypto to the freedom convoy. It´s not because they don´t know your name. It´s because for some reason. Which we will find out. They allow it.

They are favoring crypto against banks. It seems.

Good times was when cash was the majority of currency used.

Whatever this crypto bubble means. It will become clear. I would say this. Dont´t think for a minute it´s untraceable. And pay all your taxes related to it. Unless your a small fish.

 

[chance vought]

Owen Benjamin posted on his telegram channel a video of a drug dealer talking about crypto. He said bitcoin can be traced. According to the dealer Monero is the only untraceable. To me I´m 100% sure all crypto are traceable. And if you don´t feel it. YET. The reason is simple. They want you to think it´s untraceable. Because it´s in their advantage that you use it. Why they want you to use it. Sooner or later we will find out.

Or maybe “they” are not all powerful, in fact are in the process of losing power.

I don´t own crypto. Never owned crypto. Will never own crypto. And generally dislike crypto people. Exception to Blade Runner. Writes interesting info.

If you can send crypto to the freedom convoy. It´s not because they don´t know your name. It´s because for some reason. Which we will find out. They allow it.

There are ways to use Bitcoin privately. And They don’t allow anything. It is as permissionless as downloading a torrent.

Good times was when cash was the majority of currency used.

Whatever this crypto bubble means. It will become clear. I would say this. Dont´t think for a minute it´s untraceable. And pay all your taxes related to it.

A great reason to Hodl. If you don’t sell, there are no taxes.

Wealthy families never sell assets for exactly this reason. They borrow against the assets, and continually roll over the debt of depreciating fiat, using the appreciating asset. Their wealth increases over time at the expense of the people who hold the currency.

 

[chance vought]

I agree with 99% of what you say. What upsets me is seeing young gamblers thinking they’re sophisticated investors. They use historical data to predict price (every brokerage has a disclaimer about it).

I met one young professional who lost all his savings during the crypto bubble (where +99% loss was common). I told him:
- you’re still young (~27). You still have decades to recover. Imagine if you were in your 60s. Now take that as a lesson. Do not gamble more money than you are able to lose.

Agree with much of your post. If someone is here for the wrong reason, they will get burned. On-chain data showed many people who bought the top at $65k in 2021, sold in 2022 at $16k. They bought the top and sold the very bottom, because they did not believe this was a revolution. They thought it was get rich quick.

The 1% I disagree on is that this is a “greater fool” scam. In order to understand Bitcoin, you must study what money is, how it came to be, and what its properties are. Money does not need to begin as a consumable commodity, or as credit. It simply needs to have properties that make it useful as money.

Bitcoin is not worth more than all of the British pound sterling, because of a mass delusion, any more than people who are using GBP are under a mass delusion. They are using that particular money because it works well enough as money.

One of the properties that is difficult to wrap your head around, is that Bitcoin makes theft obsolete. If you hold it, it cannot be taken. Nothing else you own, including your own life, has that property. No amount of force can take the Bitcoin, not even a nuclear weapon.

 

[magoo]

Or maybe “they” are not all powerful, in fact are in the process of losing power.

There are ways to use Bitcoin privately. And They don’t allow anything. It is as permissionless as downloading a torrent.

A great reason to Hodl. If you don’t sell, there are no taxes.

Wealthy families never sell assets for exactly this reason. They borrow against the assets, and continually roll over the debt of depreciating fiat, using the appreciating asset. Their wealth increases over time at the expense of the people who hold the currency.

Wealthy families normally don’t sell because they don’t have to. But they do sell. What are you saying? Sotheby’s auctions what? Socks?

Head of auctioneers are normally members of wealthy families. To get first hand info.

They don’t loan against assets. Wealthy families don’t ask for loans. Cause they know what a loan means. You’re a bitch to the bank.

Thats the hype now. “Rich borrow against their assets. And never pay taxes.” Instagram wealth management info?

Rich don’t borrow. Period. Newly rich borrow.

They are discreet when they sell cause of reputation and if their friends sniff out they are selling a painting to pay for the new roof they will not be invited anymore to the fundraising parties. It’s about reputation.

Maybe just maybe this is made by foreign powers to end the dollar. But I’m more inclined to think this is just a stepping stone for more centralization and less anonymity. That is the game. We will find out.

Yeah it was that guy with a sushi name who created bitcoin???

CBDC is what?

To think with the apparatus tax departments have at their disposal they let this run freely because they can’t control it. Its mindblowing.

 

[chance vought]

Wealthy families normally don’t sell because they don’t have to. But they do sell. What are you saying? Sotheby’s auctions what? Socks?

Sothebys doesn’t auction much of value, these are mostly trinkets to the truly wealthy, and even then, they don’t leave the Freeport. No taxes.

They don’t loan against assets. Wealthy families don’t ask for loans. Cause they know what a loan means. You’re a bitch to the bank.

Consumer loans make you a bitch to the bank.
Loans to buy more assets make you wealthy, especially when you can take out loans at interest rates below inflation. You are getting paid to borrow money.
This is also how corporate debt works. Take out loan, pay 2% interest, money inflates at 10%, take out new loan to pay the old one, rinse and repeat. The spread between the interest rate, and the inflation rate, is profit. This is how thousands of zombie companies stay in business. They are 1 step removed from the bank money printer.

Thats the hype now. “Rich borrow against their assets. And never pay taxes.” Instagram wealth management info?

My definition is, assets over $100M. Jamie Dimon would be entry level. Some small business owner with a $10M nest egg is not that wealthy.
How do you think Trump built a real estate empire? He didn’t use rent collected to buy new buildings. He took loans against those buildings to buy more buildings. Every fiat loan created is money created, out of nothing, tax free.

Rich don’t borrow. Period. Newly rich borrow.

They do if they want to preserve wealth.

They are discreet when they sell cause of reputation and if their friends sniff out they are selling a painting to pay for the new roof they will not be invited anymore to the fundraising parties. It’s about reputation.

We aren’t talking the same class of people. Wealthy people have so much money, they can’t spend it all if they tried. They buy islands. 2 of the major islands in Hawaii are private property, owned by one family, (Zuckerberg owns 96% of the other one).

Maybe just maybe this is made by foreign powers to end the dollar. But I’m more inclined to think this is just a stepping stone for more centralization and less anonymity. That is the game.

Yeah it was that guy with a sushi name who created bitcoin???

It doesn’t matter who created it or why. Does it matter that the internet was a DARPA project?
Yes, Bitcoin is a Trojan horse that will destroy the dollar, and that’s a good thing. Once the dollar is gone, so is the excessive power of our (and every other) government. If we have a government, they will be accountable to individual people, because individuals will have all the power, once theft is impossible (or very expensive.)

 

[Blade Runner]

I'm not wrong about BTC, because what I've been saying is an irrefutable fact that even honest BTC fans freely admit: namely, that Bitcoin is an intrinsically worthless Ponzi asset that generates no returns for its owner. If you can demonstrate some method whereby the Bitcoin you hold can produce returns without being sold to some unfortunate bagholder down the line, then you can say I'm wrong. Until then, like every other Bitcoin advocate, you're just talking your book and trying to bring new money into the BTC cult.

This is now, I believe, 5 posts in a row where I have asked you to tell me when you will be wrong about BTC. If you aren't/can't/won't be wrong about BTC, then how do you give us a hard time for saying a similar thing? And of course I don't, because I've actually answered the question (it has to do with life and timing). You won't address the question, again, because you are trapped. I will ask one last time: What would make you wrong about the BTC network/BTC? I don't believe you will answer since it has taken this long, so it amuses me that you call me arrogant or other such names, when you can't even answer a question.

Blade Runner, with all due respect, you're basically the poster child for the "unsophisticated investor who doesn't understand the financial system nearly as well as he thinks he does" I was referring to

I don't mind if people call me X, Y or Z, mostly because I'm secure (like BTC) and I know what I know. And I know far more than you realize, especially since it is quite clear that you don't understand the BTC network.

You're greedy, you're arrogant and you're not nearly as savvy as you think you are. It's a very bad combination, and unfortunately, I'm afraid it's not going to work out well for you.

Incorrect. I know quite a lot about risk assessment and money management on many levels. You could ask me how I know it, but then that would actually take an honest and earnest approach. It's already working out quite well for me, and will continue to. Who it's not working out well for at the current time, is the naysayer crowd yelling at the clouds. If you want to laugh, or have some humility, go read Peter Schiff's tweets and understand that you're closer to him than anyone here who knows something about what they are talking.

I agree with 99% of what you say. What upsets me is seeing young gamblers thinking they’re sophisticated investors. They use historical data to predict price (every brokerage has a disclaimer about it).

Neither of you have any clue what gambling is or risk assessment is, regarding my expertise in those areas/on thoselevels, but you think you do, which amuses me. It's dangerous when you run into someone who because of probability reasons you think isn't what you think he is.

Or maybe “they” are not all powerful, in fact are in the process of losing power.

They aren't. And I've addressed the issue of the God-State fear complex so many have, but they don't pay attention to that either.

Rich don’t borrow. Period. Newly rich borrow.

They are discreet when they sell cause of reputation and if their friends sniff out they are selling a painting to pay for the new roof they will not be invited anymore to the fundraising parties. It’s about reputation.

You're making an irrelevant point of distinction, but I don't think you know it. Smart guys do this a lot on the forum, and there are a lot of smart guys here. You all are, but in many ways when it comes to certain topics (read carefully here), you are closer to Owen Benjamin status, which is dangerous. Dangerous mostly because of opportunity cost regarding BTC, but it can be dangerous in other ways when you have intelligence but an ego, and not complete thinking and well rounded analysis. Slow your roll and start asking more questions; that's my recommendation.

 

[JayR]

Can we get a "Crypto for dummies" guide? I check this thread from time to time and it's so far over my head I might as well be looking at moon runes...

I'm sure I could do a web search and find something like that, but the "industry" seems to be filled with scams. I trust the posters here more. I need a Sesame Street style breakdown on where to buy it, how to store it, when to buy it, tax implications etc.

If you can get access to the old forum, the "Redbeard's Beginner's Guide to Bitcoin" thread has much of what you're looking for. That thread got me off the sidelines and into the game with fully non-KYC BTC.

 

[scorpion]

One of the properties that is difficult to wrap your head around, is that Bitcoin makes theft obsolete. If you hold it, it cannot be taken. Nothing else you own, including your own life, has that property. No amount of force can take the Bitcoin, not even a nuclear weapon.

You sound straight up looney tunes here. Bitcoin makes theft obsolete? Just how much of the Kool-Aid did you drink? You're not even in the realm of reality anymore. Hysterical you can say this when Bitcoin itself is regularly used for ransomware attacks (that is, THEFT), not to mention the countless number of crypto scams that are enabled by the lack of fraud protection inherent to Bitcoin. This is not even mentioning the obvious threat of violence/coercion that would invariably compel someone to turn over their passphrase to bad actors , which again would be financially ruinous given the lack of recourse once the funds were transferred (whereas if someone fraudulently or coercively emptied your bank/brokerage account, you would likely have a good chance of getting the money back).

This is now, I believe, 5 posts in a row where I have asked you to tell me when you will be wrong about BTC. If you aren't/can't/won't be wrong about BTC, then how do you give us a hard time for saying a similar thing? And of course I don't, because I've actually answered the question (it has to do with life and timing). You won't address the question, again, because you are trapped. I will ask one last time: What would make you wrong about the BTC network/BTC? I don't believe you will answer since it has taken this long, so it amuses me that you call me arrogant or other such names, when you can't even answer a question.

First of all, I have no obligation to answer your questions, especially when they are posed in bad faith as "gotchas" as this one clearly is (i.e. "When did you stop beating your wife?"). Secondly, as I pointed out, I am not wrong now and CANNOT be wrong in the future with my core criticism of Bitcoin, because of the nature of the technology itself. Bitcoin is a Ponzi asset that does not produce cash flows and never can. It is therefore entirely reliant on future buyers to maintain its value. This is not a debatable contention. It is inherent to the design of Bitcoin, and is why I believe it is nothing more than a fad that will inevitably lose all value over time, as its popularity wanes in the face of new crypto technology, CBDCs, government crackdowns, etc... The future that you and chance vought envision, where you both sit fat and happy on your stacks of Bitcoins while the great masses beneath you toil for mere Satoshis (essentially becoming what you claim to hate - parasitical financial overlords, congrats) is a pipe dream born of nothing but greed and delusion.

I don't mind if people call me X, Y or Z, mostly because I'm secure (like BTC) and I know what I know. And I know far more than you realize, especially since it is quite clear that you don't understand the BTC network.

You don't have to answer this question, but I think it would be informative. Roughly how much have you made (at least on paper) with your Bitcoin investments so far? You needn't be precise. Low six-figures or less? High six-figures or more?

I contend that anyone who hasn't already made enough through Bitcoin to retire on (i.e. mostly pre-2017 buyers) never will.

 

[chance vought]

You sound straight up looney tunes here. Bitcoin makes theft obsolete? Just how much of the Kool-Aid did you drink? You're not even in the realm of reality anymore. Hysterical you can say this when Bitcoin itself is regularly used for ransomware attacks (that is, THEFT), not to mention the countless number of crypto scams that are enabled by the lack of fraud protection inherent to Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is just a tool. Just because muslims use box trucks to run people over, doesn't mean box trucks aren't useful.
Scams are a voluntary exchange. Caveat emptor.
Theft is the use of force to take property that belongs to another.

This is not even mentioning the obvious threat of violence/coercion that would invariably compel someone to turn over their passphrase to bad actors , which again would be financially ruinous given the lack of recourse once the funds were transferred (whereas if someone fraudulently or coercively emptied your bank/brokerage account, you would likely have a good chance of getting the money back).

Threat of violence. Not necessarily violence, because then would get you nothing. Bitcoin at least forces a negotiation. Any other asset can be taken with a bullet to the head, or the stroke of a pen. Bitcoin cannot. And it can be set up where even torture would yield nothing, (geographically distributed multisig), the attacker doesn't know how much you have, decoy wallets, OP_VAULT. There are so many ways to make it untouchable.

You could use custodial Bitcoin if you want fraud protection and chargebacks. There is a tradeoff, if you trust someone else more than you trust yourself, that is always an option. Banks may still have a role.

Bitcoin is a Ponzi asset that does not produce cash flows and never can. It is therefore entirely reliant on future buyers to maintain its value. This is not a debatable contention.

A Ponzi is a scheme whereby investors are paid a phony return with the money from new investors. As you yourself continue to state: Bitcoin has no return. Under your definition, Gold is a Ponzi scheme.
Bernie Madoff's fund was a Ponzi. Social Security is a ponzi. Government bonds are a ponzi. Bitcoin by definition cannot be a ponzi, because there is no yeild.

It is inherent to the design of Bitcoin, and is why I believe it is nothing more than a fad that will inevitably lose all value over time, as its popularity wanes in the face of new crypto technology, CBDCs, government crackdowns, etc... The future that you and chance vought envision, where you both sit fat and happy on your stacks of Bitcoins while the great masses beneath you toil for mere Satoshis (essentially becoming what you claim to hate - parasitical financial overlords, congrats) is a pipe dream born of nothing but greed and delusion.

The world we want is one of honest weights and measures. Why should the government, and banks, and people who lick their boots, continue to steal from everyone? They are the ones who produce no value, and extract it from the working slaves.

Everyone will be wealthier because those who don't produce any value will start doing so or perish.
Everyone who uses Bitcoin benefits. Yes, those who adopt it earlier may benefit more than those who don't. They may benefit. But most of those early adopters sell. When Bitcoin does a 10x. They bought it for $1, and sold for $10. Their coins distribute to more people. People who buy $70k Bitcoin today will sell at $200k.
For every seller, there is a buyer, and vice versa.

From my perspective, Bitcoin goes up much more than it goes down. So selling it is betting that it will go down...which to me is not a good bet.

You don't have to answer this question, but I think it would be informative. Roughly how much have you made (at least on paper) with your Bitcoin investments so far? You needn't be precise. Low six-figures or less? High six-figures or more?

Not enough to retire yet.
Retirement is what got me thinking about Bitcoin, because I ran the numbers. I had been plowing money into my 401k for 20 years, and not living a lavish lifestyle. That was 20 years of the time value of money, and compound interest. And in 2020 I realized that it would never be enough. The purchasing power of that sum of money, was roughly equivalent to my contributions, even though it was probably 4x.

In 2009, I had a feeling that something was broken, but I never really figured it out. In 2020, the internet had matured to a point that I found that information, learned what exactly was wrong with the world, the how, and the why. There was enough crowd knowledge to distill a complex concept like money. Only then did I take a serious look at Bitcoin.

I contend that anyone who hasn't already made enough through Bitcoin to retire on (i.e. mostly pre-2017 buyers) never will.

That is only true if it has no value. I think it has value and will continue to accrue value, forever. Bitcoin has no top, because human productivity is limitless.
People use Bitcoin because it helps them financially. Why wouldn't more people start using it? Why wouldn't everyone, eventually?

I’m not trying to convince you, or anyone that Bitcoin is the answer to the fiat ponzi. But I do want people to have the curiosity to investigate, instead of assuming they already know.

 

[Joost]

Neither of you have any clue what gambling is or risk assessment is, regarding my expertise in those areas/on thoselevels, but you think you do, which amuses me. It's dangerous when you run into someone who because of probability reasons you think isn't what you think he is.

I got into Bitcoin from at least Feb 2012 so I’m not a newbie. I think it’s great but I don’t recommend people to buy it since it’s a speculative asset.

We can talk about gold who has a track record of thousands of years. To put a fancy graph (I’m not saying it’s you) and use historical data from few years like they do for Bitcoin is naive in my opinion.

My point is, nobody can predict what the price or how much traction Bitcoin will get in the future. If you put all your savings in Bitcoin, in ten years you might go broke, maintain your purchasing power or become rich. It’s uncertain. I love Bitcoin but I know I MIGHT be wrong and the price could go to zero.

If you still have 20 years left to save, you can go conservative and invest in let’s say, rental properties. You MIGHT not become rich but I know you’re definitely not going broke.

This thread contains a lot of posts pushing shitcoins without any value and it’s upsetting seeing people here trying to pump and dump their bags at the expense of other forum members.

I don’t mind discussing news or technical information about Bitcoin. Discussing price attracts the wrong crowd.

 

[chance vought]

My point is, nobody can predict what the price or how much traction Bitcoin will get in the future. If you put all your savings in Bitcoin, in ten years you might go broke, maintain your purchasing power or become rich. It’s uncertain. I love Bitcoin but I know I MIGHT be wrong and the price could go to zero.

The risk adjusted return with Bitcoin is incredibly high. In the last 10 years, a portfolio with 99% cash, and 1% BTC, matches the S&P, with a total risk of 1%. A 100% allocation to the S&P has a 40% risk, YoY. Each for a 9% annualized return. Why take on 40x the risk, for exactly the same return?
Why not recommend a small allocation. 1%, 5% …If it goes to 0, nobody would notice the loss. If it does what we think, it gives a better risk adjusted return than other assets.

If you still have 20 years left to save, you can go conservative and invest in let’s say, rental properties. You MIGHT not become rich but I know you’re definitely not going broke.

Nothing is certain. I’m sure the people in eastern Ukraine that had rental properties, or the Armenians, or the Jews in Nazi Germany, or any one of countless people in history would disagree with you. Even in the USA, property rights were ignored and rent could not be collected for a fake emergency. What happens when things get real?

Also, I already have a job. I dont want a second job, keeping books, replacing carpets and fixing toilets. I want to enjoy time with my wife, kids, and do things I enjoy. One productive career should provide for the future, and it used to, before fiat clown world.

I don’t mind discussing news or technical information about Bitcoin. Discussing price attracts the wrong crowd.

Agreed. Price doesn’t matter. If it simply holds value (in real terms) that is a win.

 

[Joost]

The risk adjusted return with Bitcoin is incredibly high. In the last 10 years, a portfolio with 99% cash, and 1% BTC, matches the S&P, with a total risk of 1%. A 100% allocation to the S&P has a 40% risk, YoY. Each for a 9% annualized return. Why take on 40x the risk, for exactly the same return?

You’re using historical data, in a very short time frame as reference. Picking Bitcoin trajectory is like choosing a volatile stock. Like saying you could’ve bought an meme stock and make 1000% in few weeks.

Most people tend to invest a small amount and increase their position expecting the same result. Then you can go bust.

I have some bitcoin but my money is in a money market (5.2% APY) and a REIT (O) that gives me 6.8% yield. Both pays monthly dividends. Risk is low and I can get liquidity if an opportunity arrives (like an economy crash). I’m in my 40s so I’m a little risk-adverse. I make $120k/y in a stable job.

Many people bought bitcoin at $50k and after crashing, it took something like 4 years to recover.

 

[eradicator]

Agree with much of your post. If someone is here for the wrong reason, they will get burned.

I’m in crypto for the tech

 

[Blade Runner]

I contend that anyone who hasn't already made enough through Bitcoin to retire on (i.e. mostly pre-2017 buyers) never will.

Ok, at least you sort of answered the question I posed 5 times, after saying it was a bad faith "gotcha". How is answering a question a gotcha? You are projecting, since I'm not accusing you of anything (your analogy of the beating question is an accusation). You don't look at this topic dispassionately, which is what I have shown, or you would answer. I'm assuming "I will never be wrong about BTC" is the answer. Just be a man and say it; it's fine since it's clear that's what your answer is. Maybe I can take a different route here, because your ego tricks that try to evade with humility (you don't want to say you can't be wrong, which is why you think I'm pulling a gotcha, but it's more telling than anything) end up getting exposed on the most fundamental level: investment. Let's say BTC isn't what chance or myself claim it is. Ok. But all it does is go up and to the right for decades, while you wait for it to crash to zero. At what point wouldn't you want to have 1000x gain, or 100x gains, or even 10x gains if you recognized something for at LEAST monetary value, even valued in fiat? That seems incredibly foolish to me. Isn't the point of investing making money? So what we have here are actually cultists against BTC, for reasons I still can't explain, other than they don't understand it AND I suspect they feel like they've missed out. The best part of this for those of us who understand it is that as long as the wool is over people's eyes and they keep yelling at the clouds, the longer we have to accumulate and the higher the price goes. It's actually amazing. It's a sad feedback loop for the proud who don't understand BTC, since they get even more pissed off that BTC keeps going up and to the right and due to ego, keep fighting it and holding on that ego, so as not to benefit from the asset.

Scams are a voluntary exchange. Caveat emptor.

When people use examples that already happen in the world against BTC, it's amusing.

There are so many ways to make it untouchable

Yup.

Under your definition, Gold is a Ponzi scheme.

They don't apply the same rules or logic to BTC because they don't like BTC. That's fair, didn't you know?

The world we want is one of honest weights and measures. Why should the government, and banks, and people who lick their boots, continue to steal from everyone? They are the ones who produce no value, and extract it from the working slaves.

Elbow from the top rope, but when you won't let yourself see something for emotional reasons, that's where we are.

I think it’s great but I don’t recommend people to buy it since it’s a speculative asset.

No, it's a volatile asset. That's why you don't like it. Be precise in thinking and it language. Everything, on some level, can be a "speculation" in fact it's the entire point in getting into a market - you think you'll get greater returns on what you invest in. Right? Yes. Then, don't forget the most important part: only something with said volatility can give you oversize returns. It is your friend, especially when you understand it and see it for what it is.

My point is, nobody can predict what the price or how much traction Bitcoin will get in the future. If you put all your savings in Bitcoin, in ten years you might go broke, maintain your purchasing power or become rich. It’s uncertain. I love Bitcoin but I know I MIGHT be wrong and the price could go to zero.

Your point is a red herring and technically lazy. No one is trying to predict exactly what will happen. This is crucical to understanding investing. We are assigning probabilities and Expected Value. Those things are far from uncalculatable. If they were impossible to gain understanding of, Stan Druckenmiller, Howard Marks, or Paul Tudor Jones (you choose whoever you like) wouldn't be great investors.

Joost, let me ask you a question, since you're a bit more open to things in your evaluation here. Let's say BTC goes to 300k next year. Do people still call it a fraud? Let's say it goes to 300k and then drops to 140k after it cycles back from the ATH ... then goes to $1 million in 2029. What would you say about someone who says it's still a fraud, and there isn't enough time to evaluate it, at that point? Would you not laugh at such a person? It's an honest question.

 

[chance vought]

@Blade Runner I‘m not sure this world wide web experiment is going to last. I mean, we’ve had scrolls, and later, books, for thousands years. WWW only started in 1991. That’s only a 33 year track record.

Seriously though, what did you think of the “information superhighway” in 1995? There were a handfull or people that knew the potential. The vast majority saw it as a novelty. Over the years it evolved into a critical part of infrastructure!

 

[eradicator]

I meant to add this to my last post but oh well

 

[Joost]

Joost, let me ask you a question, since you're a bit more open to things in your evaluation here. Let's say BTC goes to 300k next year. Do people still call it a fraud? Let's say it goes to 300k and then drops to 140k after it cycles back from the ATH ... then goes to $1 million in 2029. What would you say about someone who says it's still a fraud, and there isn't enough time to evaluate it, at that point? Would you not laugh at such a person? It's an honest question.

English is not my first or second language, so pardon me for not using the correct word to describe bitcoin (speculative/volatile).

I never said Bitcoin was a fraud. I actually love it. I just don’t like discussions about price. Specially when people use short-term historical data and focus in pushing people to buy it.