Bitcoin and Crypto Thread

scorpion said:
What I find irritating is the combination of delusion, hubris and greed masked under the guise of promoting a revolutionary technology to liberate mankind from the oppressive banking system. To be blunt, it's just a bunch of bullshit. Every dollar that someone has "made" on Bitcoin has been taken directly out of another man's pocket. And that's the way it always will be, because that's how a speculative greater fool asset works. It is decentralized pyramid scheme that all Bitcoiners jointly hype up, each one looking around nervously the entire time but confident he will beat the others to the exits when the time comes to sell and the stampede out the door begins.

And unless your risk management is way out of whack, a 4x shouldn't be lifechanging money. This is another problem I have with Bitcoin - it mostly attracts guys who are desperate financially and think that gambling everything is the only way they can get ahead. And most of them end up losing what little they have.
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Isn't the first paragraph just describing an element present in much of modern capitalism. For one person to get ahead, someone else or many have to miss out? It's certainly not limited to speculative assets.

The second paragraph is in bad faith and ascribing qualities to people you don't even know. If I'd said "7xing your money in 2 years is life changing", you'd have found a way to dismiss that too.
 
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“In finance, the greater fool theory suggests that one can sometimes make money through the purchase of overvalued assets — items with a purchase price drastically exceeding the intrinsic value — if those assets can later be resold at an even higher price.

In this context, one "fool" might pay for an overpriced asset, hoping that they can sell it to an even "greater fool" and make a profit. This only works as long as there are enough new "greater fools" willing to pay higher and higher prices for the asset. Eventually, investors can no longer deny that the price is out of touch with reality, at which point a sell-off can cause the price to drop significantly until it is closer to its fair value, which in some cases could be zero.”


“Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are highly speculative investments, since supply and demand drive their volatility—not intrinsic value. “

“Whether cryptocurrencies are right for you depends on your goals and risk tolerance. While some traders have made money on the dramatic swings in the price of Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, others have found out the hard way that what goes up can most definitely come down. Thus, investors in this speculative asset should never venture more than they can afford to lose.”

But let’s say currencies collapse and your only left with bitcoins. What happens then. Forget about the famine, wars, etc.

Or simply bitcoin is by law made to replace dollar. How would that work?

When euro was introduced they fixed a price exchange rate. But there weren’t any previous euros valuation.

Let’s say bitcoin reaches 1M$ per coin. What would happen to the population who didn’t own bitcoins? They would have to convert assets to the last rate of exchange?
Would the government set an official exchange rate?
How would that work? Bitcoin would be backed by what?
Before fiat has no backing. You do realize most of dumb population believe actual fiat currency is backed by gold or something tangible. Some even think coins have silver in them.
 
scorpion said:
What I find irritating is the combination of delusion, hubris and greed masked under the guise of promoting a revolutionary technology to liberate mankind from the oppressive banking system. To be blunt, it's just a bunch of bullshit. Every dollar that someone has "made" on Bitcoin has been taken directly out of another man's pocket. And that's the way it always will be, because that's how a speculative greater fool asset works. It is decentralized pyramid scheme that all Bitcoiners jointly hype up, each one looking around nervously the entire time but confident he will beat the others to the exits when the time comes to sell and the stampede out the door begins.

And unless your risk management is way out of whack, a 4x shouldn't be lifechanging money. This is another problem I have with Bitcoin - it mostly attracts guys who are desperate financially and think that gambling everything is the only way they can get ahead. And most of them end up losing what little they have.

Bitcoin was designed as a peer-to-peer payment system, but is now promoted as essentially a form of digital gold, which Bitcoiners claim will emerge from the ashes of the collapsing financial system as the new global monetary standard. This is so far beyond anything Satoshi designed or envisioned that it's utterly laughable. It's like claiming that an ordinary house cat can turn into a tiger if enough people just believe it will.

By this logic I can also pay my taxes in horse manure, comic books and old vinyl records, by first converting them to fiat. Schlonged!

Bitcoin is like a transwoman. No matter how vociferously you claim otherwise, and no matter how many people echo your enthusiasm, she (he) will never be a real woman. Likewise, Bitcoin will never have any actual value. What you are buying is a shared delusion that there is something magical about the Bitcoin name, because the technology itself is absolutely nothing special, it can and already has been not only replicated but improved upon. If crypto truly is a game-changing innovation, then it will, like all technologies, be massively improved upon in the years and decades to come. There is absolutely no logical reason to believe that Bitcoin - which again, I remind you, has value only as a brand name - will maintain relevance in the face of future challengers.

If Bitcoin is 500k in 2025 I will say, "Well, I guess I missed out on that trade." But what if Bitcoin is 5k or below in 2025? What will YOU say? There's really no point asking these hypotheticals, though. As magoo pointed out, we're just a couple of years removed from the world collectively losing its mind over the flu and billions of people willingly allowing themselves to be injected with an experimental jab. There is no limit to the utter stupidity and insanity of mankind, so it doesn't surprise me that plenty of people have been taken in by the siren's song of Bitcoin.

But what will be, will be. Most people will end up losing money on it. A much smaller number will come out ahead. But the rosy future for Bitcoin you guys envision will assuredly not come to pass.

No, this time is not different.
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Scorpion what you seem to be missing is an understanding of money. You keep pointing out that Bitcoin is a non-productive asset that doesn't produce anything. Money is not meant to generate a return that is a function of money being the base layer asset with the lowest counterparty risk. return is a reward for taking additional risk above the minimum level.

Nothing is risk free and everything has counterparty risk as even Michael Saylor pointed out that if you own Bitcoin on a cold storage wallet you are the counter-party risk to the Bitcoin (i.e. risk of losing your keys, getting your Bitcoin robbed due to violence, risk of what happens if you suddenly die and nobody has access to your keys, etc). However true money is the lowest form of counterparty risk hence why it doesn't generate a return. If you buy a bond you are taking a higher level of counterparty risk (credit risk) if the borrower defaults you los your capital. If you buy equities you are taking counterparty risk in that the management must perform well for the company to generate a good return. If you buy a rental property the counterparty risk is the tenant damaging the property or not paying rent, etc.

If Bitcoin is a form of money (just as fiat and gold and other things are types of money) then it does not generate a return as it is the base level layer or risk and anything above it is deisgned to generate a return to reward you for the additonal risk. Physical gold doesn't pay interest or produce more gold. Physicsl cash doesn't produce interest as deposits are a loan to the bank and are considered a credit insturment and hence not base layer money hence the return for taking credit risk.

Scorpion the question is do you believe that Bitcoin is a form of money? If not then why is it not a form of money?
 
Anything can be a currency. Cigarettes are currency in jails. That´s not why people are investing in btc. They are putting they´re money there cause they expect an increase in price. They don´t know anything about tech. Or digital bullshit.

Bitcoin is too volatile to be used as a currency.

Who is making this hype and why. That would be good to know. Who is really behind this. Not the sushi guy. That´s for sure. But as it goes. BTC is irrelevant. CBDC. That´s a bigger problem.

"Nakamoto required computers to solve complex algorithms on the Bitcoin blockchain. If a miner solves this problem first every 10 minutes, they can validate a new set of transactions for BTC rewards. "

This is how BTC were created?


Sushi guy would send a problem?

https://worldcoin.org/articles/what-is-a-crypto-whale

404 - Page not found​


Lool

BTC is finite to 21M? Who said it? The sushi guy again? And people believe in it? Why?

"which means about 0.01% of the total BTC holders have almost 60% of BTC's supply."
 
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scorpion said:
Bitcoin was designed as a peer-to-peer payment system
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And it is. Still.
scorpion said:
By this logic I can also pay my taxes in horse manure, comic books and old vinyl records, by first converting them to fiat
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You could if people actually wanted those things. Last I checked they don't have a multi-trillion $ market cap and are traded on the world's largest, secured, computer network 365/24/7. Do you not read anything we say or just have fun responding to good points with bad ones, over and over?
scorpion said:
Likewise, Bitcoin will never have any actual value.
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It already does, and guys like you are why there are only a small number of visionaries in human societies, who are rewarded greatly for their vision and for taking risk. It has happened before and you sadly are seeing it happen again; I say sadly because you don't see it, but you'll be forced to watch it as you protest all the more.
scorpion said:
But what if Bitcoin is 5k or below in 2025? What will YOU say?
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I've answered this, which is why I'm both a good faith discusser of things and a logical man, assessing things as they actually are - not just coming to conclusions and then retrofitting everything. If the network loses major adoption and appears to go nowhere, and that persists, I will have to re-evaluate the asset, since adoption and network effect (really hash rate) determine, or are directly related to, its value over time.
chance vought said:
Fiat will collapse, it always has. No one ever had a way out before.
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They never talk about this, something we actually know in life, which shows even more how absurd the protestors are.
Teedub said:
Isn't the first paragraph just describing an element present in much of modern capitalism. For one person to get ahead, someone else or many have to miss out? It's certainly not limited to speculative assets.
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I think this is how blind and emotional the stance really is, and it is clear in many, as related to boomer-ism. The system that currently exists debases people much more and in fact incentivizes "gambling" by its actions and abuses, and then they go and blame the people who might take risks as the problem. It would not be shocking if we weren't at a forum like this, which largely sees things clearly in life.
magoo said:
But let’s say currencies collapse and your only left with bitcoins. What happens then. Forget about the famine, wars, etc.
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You are in one of the better positions you could have ever dreamed of.
magoo said:
Before fiat has no backing. You do realize most of dumb population believe actual fiat currency is backed by gold or something tangible. Some even think coins have silver in them.
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So why shouldn't people who see things as they are, and will take risk to set themselves up, like any intelligent businessman or otherwise, be rewarded for their hard work and prescience? Our discussion here proves that the people who can't see things clearly, or won't, will always be left behind. It's nothing new. The worst part is that they actually have a shot at improving their lot, but still won't do it. Others locked out of the system can't say as much.
magoo said:
Anything can be a currency
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But anything can't be money. This is where you keep failing.
 
magoo said:
Anything can be a currency. Cigarettes are currency in jails. That´s not why people are investing in btc. They are putting they´re money there cause they expect an increase in price. They don´t know anything about tech. Or digital bullshit.

Bitcoin is too volatile to be used as a currency.
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Works fine for me.
magoo said:
Who is making this hype and why. That would be good to know. Who is really behind this. Not the sushi guy. That´s for sure. But as it goes. BTC is irrelevant. CBDC. That´s a bigger problem.
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CBDC is irrelevant. That is a whole other essay.
magoo said:
"Nakamoto required computers to solve complex algorithms on the Bitcoin blockchain. If a miner solves this problem first every 10 minutes, they can validate a new set of transactions for BTC rewards. "

This is how BTC were created?


Sushi guy would send a problem?

https://worldcoin.org/articles/what-is-a-crypto-whale
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This is a scam coin, whatever they say is a lie to promote a scam coin. Sam Altman is a fiat ponzi scammer.
magoo said:
BTC is finite to 21M? Who said it? The sushi guy again? And people believe in it? Why?
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IMG_1149.webp
magoo said:
"which means about 0.01% of the total BTC holders have almost 60% of BTC's supply."
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Scam coiners: Lie
 
magoo said:

“In finance, the greater fool theory suggests that one can sometimes make money through the purchase of overvalued assets — items with a purchase price drastically exceeding the intrinsic value 
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Money has a market price, it doesn’t have intrinsic value. What is the intrinsic value of $1?
magoo said:
— if those assets can later be resold at an even higher price.

In this context, one "fool" might pay for an overpriced asset, hoping that they can sell it to an even "greater fool" and make a profit. This only works as long as there are enough new "greater fools" willing to pay higher and higher prices for the asset. Eventually, investors can no longer deny that the price is out of touch with reality, at which point a sell-off can cause the price to drop significantly until it is closer to its fair value, which in some cases could be zero.”


“Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are highly speculative investments, since supply and demand drive their volatility—not intrinsic value. “
Click to expand...
It is money, not a traditional asset. Therefore no intrinsic value. It has monetary premium.
magoo said:
“Whether cryptocurrencies are right for you depends on your goals and risk tolerance. While some traders have made money on the dramatic swings in the price of Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, others have found out the hard way that what goes up can most definitely come down. Thus, investors in this speculative asset should never venture more than they can afford to lose.”
Click to expand...
Don‘t invest more in fiat than you can afford to lose.
IMG_1151.jpeg
magoo said:
But let’s say currencies collapse and your only left with bitcoins. What happens then. Forget about the famine, wars, etc.

Or simply bitcoin is by law made to replace dollar. How would that work?
Click to expand...
Gold did not become money because of laws. Society converged on the best money available organically. Not by decree.
magoo said:
When euro was introduced they fixed a price exchange rate. But there weren’t any previous euros valuation.

Let’s say bitcoin reaches 1M$ per coin. What would happen to the population who didn’t own bitcoins? They would have to convert assets to the last rate of exchange?
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If they have assets or labor, they can be exchanged for Bitcoin, at the rate that both parties to the trade believe they are getting the better deal. Otherwise, no trade would occur. I won’t part with my money, unless I want the asset more than the money. The counterparty won’t part with the asset, unless they want the amount of money I offer more than they want the asset.
magoo said:
Would the government set an official exchange rate?
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No, this is completely unnecessary. Let people decide between each other.
magoo said:
How would that work? Bitcoin would be backed by what?
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NOTHING. Bitcoin needs no backing because it has a limited supply. The only reason Fiat toiletpaper needed backing, was to limit its supply. Otherwise, government could print until the currency collapsed. Gold just happened to be God’s unchangeable source-code. Alchemists tried, but no one could create it out of cheap materials…they had to do backbreaking work to obtain tiny amounts.
Hard money is hard to produce more of.

What is Gold backed by? The human time and energy it requires to produce more of it.

Bitcoin has an unchangeable supply, enforced by everyone who uses it, and computer code. No one can change the rules to benefit themselves.
magoo said:
Before fiat has no backing. You do realize most of dumb population believe actual fiat currency is backed by gold or something tangible. Some even think coins have silver in them.
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Yes, but most people don’t know how money works. Fiat works because people know that other people will accept it. When fewer people accept Fiat, its value will decrease.
 
Backing a currency with something (gold for instance) introduces counterparty risk. How do you know the bank, or the central bank, has gold to back every note? You don’t have a way of auditing, and they cheat. Print more notes than gold.

This is how all fiat become untethered and unlimited.

Gold was too cumbersome and slow to self custody. It centralized into banks, was stolen by the government (executive order 6102), then was centralized into a central bank. Whomever controls the real money has all the power. People with the paper IOUs for money got nothing but 98% debasement since 1913.
 
chance vought said:
Backing a currency with something (gold for instance) introduces counterparty risk. How do you know the bank, or the central bank, has gold to back every note? You don’t have a way of auditing, and they cheat. Print more notes than gold.

This is how all fiat become untethered and unlimited.

Gold was too cumbersome and slow to self custody. It centralized into banks, was stolen by the government (executive order 6102), then was centralized into a central bank. Whomever controls the real money has all the power. People with the paper IOUs for money got nothing but 98% debasement since 1913.
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These points expose again the larger point that our friends here who protest do not understand what money is. It's not an easy concept for most. I'm baffled why this is so hard, and this will make them more upset (and think I'm the crazy one), but they are literally missing out on the opportunity of a lifetime, perhaps almost all lifetimes, due to stubbornness and some inclination to the status quo, which is precisely what holds people back - but does offer more security - for a little while at least.

I have a small number of friends who know special talents and the small number of people who have special insight, when they see them. It is only these people who are both wise enough and humble enough to pull the trigger. Some do it too late, regarding maximum advantage, but how can one fault someone when they finally come around? That's the point.
 
I've had enough of going back and forth with you guys about this for now. We'll see where Bitcoin and the crypto markets go over the next few months. But just remember the old trading adage: bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered. Don't be left holding the bag when the bottom falls out.
 
We´ve got some serious sushi lovers here. Don ´t know why but by reading last posts it reminded me of this video:



But I have to say. You´re not that bad. And if BTC doesnt work out both could definitely sell credit cards with high interest rates in shopping malls.

Just kiddin.

It´s actually a nice fantasy. And If I wouldnt lose money would gladly partake it with you. It´s refreshing to see people writing with passion.

A sever bad case of one-itis. As someone would say in the old RVF.
The disappointment will be brutal. BR seems to be really an hardcore believer. Good for him. Don´t jump with both feet and all that. People should only gamble with BTC what they can afford to lose.

As for Worldcoin I honestly have no idea what it is. One of the first results in google probably. All crypto websites look like scams to me. But if I pasted a conservative it would be immediately dimissed.
 
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scorpion said:
I've had enough of going back and forth with you guys about this for now. We'll see where Bitcoin and the crypto markets go over the next few months. But just remember the old trading adage: bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered. Don't be left holding the bag when the bottom falls out.
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I actually agree with most if your points and maintain that 95% of crypto holders would be much better off just buying a btc etf or even a ethereum etf when they are available.

Anytime someone tells you to hold the line what they mean is that want you to hold the bag while they sell.
 
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