Bitcoin and Crypto Thread

This is another weird thing where what we are saying is taking place in real time, and still so many people refuse to admit it. Why wouldn't it keep going in the same direction, the positive feedback loop, when MSTR showed the way and several others are following. It's like there is this refusal to recognize there's no good reason to keep USD on a balance sheet apart from some really small portion for possibly convenience (but likely not since BTC is liquid 24-7-365), and what are they going to appeal to, the USD being worth more than shitty (insert fiat)? It's laughable how obvious this is to someone who doesn't really even need to understand many of the higher level things we've shown, or claimed, about the future of BTC.

By the way, this is the reason historically (proving the debasement of the USD and our point generally about BTC) stock buybacks have occurred. While you can, and most will, keep doing that, there is no reason why they wouldn't all allocate a portion to the best performing asset. Game theory again screaming at you.
 
It's a very dumb article. The conclusion does not remotely follow the premise. The author states that companies should hold a reserve asset on their balance sheet for purposes of financial stability. And there's nothing controversial about that. But then she suggests that this asset should be Bitcoin? The most volatile major financial asset that has regularly lost over 80% of its value? That's the asset you want to hold in your emergency coffers for when times get tough? Utterly retarded.

If companies want some financial ballast, they should be holding cash equivalents. And beyond holding a prudent cash reserve, companies should ideally not be investing in financial assets whatsoever. Any excess cash should be returned to its legal owners, the shareholders, via dividends or buybacks.
 
Just listened to Zac Townsend on WiM podcast, founder of Meanwhile, a BTC life insurance company. Premiums and benefits paid in BTC.

TLDR: Its whole life insurance, with different plan sizes, but basically you pay in for 10 years (1 BTC/year premium) and the death benefit is 15 BTC. They invest to generate 2% yield to make the death benefits math.

I almost didn’t listen, because if you have BTC, no need for life insurance really…but HERE IS THE INTERESTING BIT:
Let’s say you have a policy, you’ve paid into it, but now you want to buy a new house….you can take a loan from your policy, in BTC, and buy it. You never have to pay it back, it’s just deducted from your death benefit. Borrow 1 BTC, your death benefit is now 14 BTC.

The really interesting bit: when you liquidate the BTC that you borrowed, your cost basis for the IRS is $1M…no capital gains tax. So you bought your BTC for $58k in 2024, liquidated it for $1M, and have no cap gains tax…

 
It's a very dumb article. The conclusion does not remotely follow the premise. The author states that companies should hold a reserve asset on their balance sheet for purposes of financial stability. And there's nothing controversial about that. But then she suggests that this asset should be Bitcoin? The most volatile major financial asset that has regularly lost over 80% of its value? That's the asset you want to hold in your emergency coffers for when times get tough? Utterly retarded.

If companies want some financial ballast, they should be holding cash equivalents. And beyond holding a prudent cash reserve, companies should ideally not be investing in financial assets whatsoever. Any excess cash should be returned to its legal owners, the shareholders, via dividends or buybacks.
And now scorpion will have us believe that he is both smarter and a better investment mind than Lyn Alden. While anything is possible, the problem with me believing it (and there are obviously many reasons I already know it's untrue, from prior exchanges) is that the sequence of logic doesn't make any sense. It's like you can't understand that something that has short term volatility can be a store of value. That term refers to a long term hold, and there is nothing better in the long term than BTC, further betraying your words. What's more, there is nowhere in that article where she states that one should hold 100% BTC as the asset of your "emergency coffers" which shows again how little you pay attention to what people are saying, or how little you care in being fair in your assessments.



You should learn what the Sharpe Ratio is, also the Sortino ratio, which is also covered. These show you with actual DATA that if you include BTC in your portfolio, you outpeform over all sorts of periods (4 years, 8 years, etc).


JP Morgan and Eaton Vance are in it to lose money, right? :ROFLMAO:
 
And now scorpion will have us believe that he is both smarter and a better investment mind than Lyn Alden. While anything is possible, the problem with me believing it (and there are obviously many reasons I already know it's untrue, from prior exchanges) is that the sequence of logic doesn't make any sense. It's like you can't understand that something that has short term volatility can be a store of value. That term refers to a long term hold, and there is nothing better in the long term than BTC, further betraying your words. What's more, there is nowhere in that article where she states that one should hold 100% BTC as the asset of your "emergency coffers" which shows again how little you pay attention to what people are saying, or how little you care in being fair in your assessments.
Why do you speak as if Lyn Alden is some sort of financial and economic guru who is beyond questioning, and not just another autistic tranny rambling on her (his) blog? Very odd. If you want to appeal to authority in this case, perhaps you can point to the hundreds of Fortune 500 CEOs/CFOs who are converting large portions of their retained earnings into Bitcoin. But you can't, because no one besides MSTR is doing this, and I've already pointed out the scam Saylor is running at the expense of his shareholders.

You should learn what the Sharpe Ratio is, also the Sortino ratio, which is also covered. These show you with actual DATA that if you include BTC in your portfolio, you outpeform over all sorts of periods (4 years, 8 years, etc).
You don't really seem to understand that corporations don't exist to build investment portfolios including exotic speculative financial instruments that are not germane to their primary line of business. The entire reason shareholders invest in a corporation is because the corporation is investing in their own work to generate profit, not the work of other companies or in financial instruments. If shareholders wanted corporations to invest in Bitcoin, why wouldn't those shareholders just buy Bitcoin themselves? If I, scorpion, was known for building the best fences in the city and sold you, Blade Runner, a 20% share in my company, you would only buy it because you were convinced that I was an extremely competent fence builder and that my business would outperform not only my competition, but your other investment opportunities. But if I suddenly came to you and said, "Blade Runner, I've got this great idea: I'm going to take some of our earnings and speculate on pork belly futures." You'd rightfully be like, "scorpion, bro, slow down. You build fences. How about you just stay in your lane and focus on that."

In other words, if you wanted to speculate on pork belly futures, you can do certainly that. But you don't invest in a fence building company to be pursuing that. And to come back around to where we started, shareholders don't expect corporations to be speculating with retained earnings on Bitcoin. That money is owed to shareholders, and if it isn't reinvested in the business or retained in cash equivalents, it should be returned to shareholders via dividends or buybacks.

Retaining earnings in anything other than cash equivalents is borderline corporate finance malfeasance, as the entire justification of keeping that money on hand - which, as I remind you, belongs to shareholders as the owners of the company - is to allow the company flexibility and a margin of safety. A company that can produce a large amount of cash on demand is well-positioned to exploit opportunities in the market, and is also better insulated against the vagaries of fortune that might threaten the company. Placing retaining earnings in Bitcoin achieves neither of these functions, as Bitcoin is both extremely volatile and illiquid when talking about the billions of dollars that would be invested by large corporations.

A corporation buying Bitcoin is literally the executive management saying, "We have no idea what to do with this extra money so we're just going to YOLO it on Bitcoin." At which point, the shareholders will say, "Uhh, well, if you don't know what to do with the money, you should be putting in our pockets, given that you have a fiduciary duty to us as shareholders/owners." Once Saylor's scheme inevitably blows up (and it will), not only will you never see any major corporations touching Bitcoin, you will probably see legislation prohibiting them from buying it.
 
A corporation buying Bitcoin is literally the executive management saying, "We have no idea what to do with this extra money so we're just going to YOLO it on Bitcoin." At which point, the shareholders will say, "Uhh, well, if you don't know what to do with the money, you should be putting in our pockets, given that you have a fiduciary duty to us as shareholders/owners." Once Saylor's scheme inevitably blows up (and it will), not only will you never see any major corporations touching Bitcoin, you will probably see legislation prohibiting them from buying it.
I get where you are coming from but its not that black and white. Certain companies such as Apple and Berkshire Hathaway have huge excess cash piles.

Holding excess cash and not holding holding excess cash both have there advantages and disadvantages.

In theory you can return excess cash to shareholders via dividends or share buybacks but there are multiple problems with this.

Firstly there is the issue of double taxation with dividends. Now only a few countries such as Australia, New Zealand and Malta have a full dividend imputation system (and a few more countries have partial dividend imputation systems). So straight off the bat reinvested earnings can compound tax free (albeit the earnings generated from the reinvested earnings are taxable but its still much less tax overall) until you sell your investment (capital gains tax) whereas dividends can be double taxed.

Secondly there is the problem of the unpredictability of capital markets. Often when companies return excess cash via dividends or buybacks then later in the future when they need cash to survive a recession or to make an acquisition, etc they have to do an equity raising because they no longer have spare cash, and at that time capital markets might be depressed meaning their stock price is low and their cost of capital is high making a share issuance highly dilutive if there is even appetite for a share issuance. We saw this during the global financial crises of 2008 and 2009 where many corporations issued huge amounts of shares at rock bottom prices and crushed their earnings per share and intrinsic value per share. That was a permanent destruction of capital. So the idea of return excess cash to shareholders and you can go back to the capital markets later and raise money if you need it doesn't always work out so neatly in practice. I can give many examples of this if necessary.

Although share buybacks avoid the problem of double taxation that dividends have share buybacks have their own issues.

Share buybacks only make sense when the shares are bought back at sensible prices otherwise its a destruction of capital to buy back overvalued shares. Academic analysis of share buybacks often shows that corporations have terrible timing in regards to share buybacks, they buy back the most amount of shares when stock prices are high and they buy back the least amount of shares when stock prices are low.

There are multiple reasons for this. One is that corporations tend to buy back the most shares when earnings/cash flows are strong (returning surplus cash to and financing costs are low (many corporations buy back shares with borrowed money). These conditions tend to occur when the economy and stock market are booming and stock prices are high. You can see from the figures that corporations bought back the lowest amount of shares in 2008 and 2009 and then share buybacks steadily increased over many years in line with the stock market boom. This is the opposite of what corporations should be doing buying back shares when the share price is low and issuing shares when the share price is high. Henry Singleton from Teledyne Corporation was the master at this game.

So you can see for example in 2005, 2006, 2007 when stock prices were high corporations bought back a lot of shares then in 2008 and 2009 share buybacks were at very low levels and in fact many corporations issued shares to repair their balance sheets to survive the downturn and thus in 2008 and 2009 total share count on a net basis actually increased for corporations! Thus the same corporations bought back stock at all time highs then a few years later issued shares after the share prices tanked! Talk about dumb management! Unfortunately most corporations are run by monkeys.


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Here is a more recent chart. Again you can see that in 2020 when their was a downturn and shares were cheaper companies actually bought back less shares. The opposite of what common sense dictates companies should be doing.

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Warren Buffet has written a lot about the topic of share buybacks and how most companies execute them very badly.

The other issue with share buybacks comes back to incentive caused bias and agency costs. Companies that are run by owner operators tend to be much wiser with share buybacks because their own money is on the line. Whereas corporations run by professional/hired management tend to execute buybacks much worse because they have different incentives. Many executives have stock options that vest based on metrics such as share price increases, earnings per share growth and return on equity. These are all metrics which stock buybacks will increase, so its in their own self interest to buyback shares even when its detrimental to shareholders (when the share price is above its intrinsic value). And the compensation arrangement is asymmetric, if the company does badly or goes bankrupt the executives don't lose money they simply get paid less or don't get a bonus, so the downside is very limited for them. And if the company goes down they just get a job somewhere else.

The idea of "efficient" balance sheets started to gain traction with the takeover boom of the 1980s where companies with "lazy" balance sheets got taken over corporate raiders, private equity etc and the excess capital was stripped out. Since then it has remained fashionable for companies to have "efficient" balance sheets. Also over time major corporations have become less capital intensive and thus have less need for capital hence the need for less retained earnings.

You can see there was an article by Benjamin Graham during the great depression complaining that corporations had too much spare cash and should return some of it to shareholders.

Given all of the above that I wrote in my post I would argue it makes sense for many companies to have a war chest of excess capital to ride out a downturn without issuing shares and to buy back shares or make acquisitions when the stock market is depressed. Companies should behave in a counter-cyclical manner to achieve maximum returns. Now given that is the case corporations that have large piles of cash sitting for many years on their balance sheet such as Berkshire Hathaway, Apple etc that cash loses value to inflation.

Given that many companies will likely not need all of the cash in one hit is it worthwhile for them to consider safe-guarding a portion of that cash from inflation? If yes how to do so?

One option which used to be popular with companies many decades ago but since fell out of favour is owning their own real estate. For example instead of renting the head office building you are using own it, instead of the land the factory is on own it, instead of leasing your retail shops own the premises, etc. If you have excess cash this can absorb some of the cash and give you stability with an asset that you use and protect from inflationary rent increases while simultaneously generating a higher return on capital than cash. Then if you have even more cash that can be extended to owning/land banking vacant land which you might have uses for in the future.

Another option for excess cash is vertical integration companies can buy some of their suppliers to vertically integrate and have more control over the supply chain. Again this used to be popular but fell out of favour during the era of "efficient" balance sheets.

Another option is having a poriton of excess cash stored in phsical commodities such as Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palaldium, Copper, Cocoa beans, etc). Holding commodities can especially be useful for companies which use certain commodities in their production process. For example if you are a semi-conductor company and use gold or silver or copper to manufacture your semi-conductors, if you have excess cash why not stockpile the commodity instead of continually buying it from the market at spot. You secure supply and hedge yourself from inflation and find a parking place for excess capital all at the same time. If you are a company such as Nestle you can store cocoa beans (although not too much as you don't want it to expire). If you are a trucking company with excess cash you can store petrol/oil, etc.

Companies can hold a percentage of their cash reserves in Gold.

And lastly companies can consider storing a portion of excess cash in Bitcoin if they have a massive surplus of cash.
 
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If you want to appeal to authority in this case, perhaps you can point to the hundreds of Fortune 500 CEOs/CFOs who are converting large portions of their retained earnings into Bitcoin. But you can't, because no one besides MSTR is doing this, and I've already pointed out the scam Saylor is running at the expense of his shareholders.
I already am, and they are doing it. It's just the beginning. I'm glad we have you down with all that text though so we will see it all come to pass, as I've stated before. It won't be too long and I know you'll be around, so that's good.
If shareholders wanted corporations to invest in Bitcoin, why wouldn't those shareholders just buy Bitcoin themselves?
Shareholders buy into companies because they trust what a company does and their judgments. They could do that, but there are many reasons why they might not. Either way, more balance sheets are adopting BTC. I wonder why.
At which point, the shareholders will say, "Uhh, well, if you don't know what to do with the money, you should be putting in our pockets, given that you have a fiduciary duty to us as shareholders/owners."
As above, all the companies that have done what MSTR are has done have seen massive increases in their stock prices. Somebody's wrong here, and it ain't me.
 
And lastly companies can consider storing a portion of excess cash in Bitcoin if they have a massive surplus of cash.
Very nice post and I agree with much of it, especially in regard to buybacks, which I don't think receive nearly enough scrutiny due to the way executives can use them to artificially raise share prices to hit performance metrics. However, there really isn't ever a good reason for a corporation to buy Bitcoin instead of the other alternatives you mentioned (i.e. expansion, buying company-owned real estate, vertical integration, etc...). All of those uses are justifiable in terms of expanding the business. Bitcoin isn't, as it has nothing to do with business, it's simply being purchased on speculation as a cash substitute. But Bitcoin is NOT cash. It's a speculative digital commodity. When it comes to flexibility and opportunity, cash is king. Liquid cash is much more powerful than Bitcoin, especially when you're facing a crunch. It isn't the job of the corporation to worry about beating long term inflation. That isn't why they hold cash on the balance sheet. Cash is for taking advantage of short term opportunities and weathering economic uncertainty. If a company feels it has an excess of cash, it should be returned to shareholders via dividend. It's really that simple. The fact that some investors complain about dividend taxation is irrelevant (and stupid, in my opinion - literally people complaining about making money). If you own the company, you're entitled to your share of the profits.
 
I already am, and they are doing it. It's just the beginning. I'm glad we have you down with all that text though so we will see it all come to pass, as I've stated before. It won't be too long and I know you'll be around, so that's good.
I stopped posting in this thread for several months and Bitcoin has barely budged in that time. How much longer are you going to wait? You guys have been saying 100k is just around the corner since 2021. At what point are you going to wise up and realize you are nothing but exit liquidity for the whales, who are wash trading/Tether printing to prop up the price and slowly unloading their bags while encouraging gullible dupes like you to DCA and HODL?
 
The fact that some investors complain about dividend taxation is irrelevant (and stupid, in my opinion - literally people complaining about making money). If you own the company, you're entitled to your share of the profits.
The secondary problem I mentioned before with dividends leaving aside the taxation argument as I have already mentioned I have personally seen many companies paying dividends in boom times then later on they do a share issuance to make an acquisition or repair there balance sheets.

Companies do need an excess of cash to be opportunistic in regards to share buybacks and acquisitions, etc when markets are depressed having the dry powder ready is useful.

However once you get past a certain level of dry powder you need to consider protecting it from inflation because the problem is you just don't know how many years you will end up holding the cash for. This is when Gold and Bitcoin can come into the picture but I believe they should only be considered when all other alternatives I mentioned in my previous post have already been exhausted. Gold and Bitcoin certainly should not be the first port of call for excess cash but I believe they can be used after all other viable options have been exhausted as a cash reserve is still necessary for flexibility.
 
I stopped posting in this thread for several months and Bitcoin has barely budged in that time. How much longer are you going to wait? You guys have been saying 100k is just around the corner since 2021. At what point are you going to wise up and realize you are nothing but exit liquidity for the whales, who are wash trading/Tether printing to prop up the price and slowly unloading their bags while encouraging gullible dupes like you to DCA and HODL?
It's still the best performing asset this year. We've given you our timelines. We won't have to wait long.

At what point are you going to admit that over time it keeps outperforming all other assets, keeps going up and to the right?
 
People bought MSTR convertible bonds with full knowledge of what they were. Saylor is not duping anyone.

If you think companies make money by making things or providing services...that's not how our economy works. Airlines do not make money from flying passengers. They are quasi banks making money from lucrative credit card businesses. Most large companies are only profitable by becoming banks, or becoming as close to banking as possible. It is literally printing money - creating new money and charging rent to the customer.

Saylor is using another big business strategy. I'll call this the "corporate carry trade". The Yen carry trade, which you may be familiar with, big players borrow trillions of Yen at 0%, and buy US bonds, generating a 5% yield on literally free money. This devalues the Yen and enables the US to sell more debt.

Corporations are selling debt to the market at 5%, buying assets or competitors, while inflation rips along at 10%...they are making 5% real returns just for the privilege of borrowing at interest rates below inflation, which must exist or the Fiat debt ponzi collapses.

Saylor is doing the exact same thing, he is just buying a better asset. He is shorting an inferior currency and buying a superior one, just like the Yen carry trade.
 
Take Apple for example. They currently have excess cash and are using it to buy back their own stock at 30 times forward earnings which is crazy.

They could use some of the cash to instead buy some warehouses and fill them with physical gold and silver and other metals. I estimate that Apple uses over $1 billion dollars per year of metals (gold, silver, copper, platinum, aluminum etc) which go into their products (iphones, ipads, iwatches, etc). For example if they wanted to hold a strategic stockpile they could buy some warehouses and fill it with $20 billion dollars worth of metals to secure supply and hedge against inflation for the next 20 years. And for example Apple owns land for data centres and its corporate headqaurters but to my knowledge they have over 500 Apple stores worldwide and most of them to my knowledge are leased. Apple could buy all this real estate and that would soak up additional billions.

Apple would still have has so much additional cash left it could dip a toe in the water and buy for example $500 million of Bitcoin per month and it would still a huge cash stockpile left for opportunities.

Additionally Apple could just accept Bitcoin as payment for its products and whatever small amount of Bitcoin it receives annually they could just stockpile it. For example if they start accepting Bitcoin as paytment that could add up to a few hundred million dollars per year of Bitcoin.
 
At this moment any CEO who dumps company cash in BTC would have serious good business judgement rule issues before shareholders. CEO´s have to act the most conservative possible way in order to protect themselves from future lawsuits. And BTC at this moment is not a conservative investment. Only with some kind of a consultancy report from a bigfour could they make this type of investment. At least they would have a minimum protection.
 
At this moment any CEO who dumps company cash in BTC would have serious good business judgement rule issues before shareholders. CEO´s have to act the most conservative possible way in order to protect themselves from future lawsuits. And BTC at this moment is not a conservative investment. Only with some kind of a consultancy report from a bigfour could they make this type of investment. At least they would have a minimum protection.

It depends on if the shareholders are emotional investors, or data driven. At 10% inflation, that war chest of cash is worth HALF in only 7 years!!!

You may be correct, in the moment. Sentiment about that is changing, especially the Blackrock paper that compared investment strategies like 60/40 stock/bond, and showed that the optimal allocation for Bitcoin, based on risk adjusted returns, was 84.9% Bitcoin, with the balance stocks and bonds.

The world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, published a research paper advocating for an aggressive allocation of Bitcoin in traditional investment portfolios. The paper is titled “Asset Allocation with Crypto: Application of Preferences for Positive Skewness.”


 
In summary, we have a financialized economy, where for decades the people who made the most money just did versions of paper pushing or trading. That's what inflationary/debt based systems always devolve into, because they work towards the debasement of the culture, which is additive as well.

Ironically, the fix for this is BTC. Blaming Saylor for doing what works while acquiring a deflationary (for the time being, disinflationary) asset is mind blowing irony.
 
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