Bitcoin and Crypto Thread

[scorpion]

In summary, we have a financialized economy, where for decades the people who made the most money just did versions of paper pushing or trading. That's what inflationary/debt based systems always devolve into, because they work towards the debasement of the culture, which is additive as well.

You, chance vought, Australia Sucks and others have plenty of valid criticisms of our current financial system, many of which I share.

Ironically, the fix for this is BTC.

The problem is that this simply does not logically follow. Bitcoin is not the answer to the problem. The flaws inherent to fiat currency will not suddenly be solved because the entire world decides to participate in the mass delusion that Bitcoin is valuable. Indeed, the entire proposition of Bitcoin being a valuable asset means that it necessarily fails to function as a replacement for currency, since by definition it cannot be both. And at the end of the day, currencies come and go, but valuable assets remain. And not only is Bitcoin a failed currency, there is no reason to believe it will succeed long term as an appreciating asset. All the big money has already been made in Bitcoin, and anyone buying since 2021 has made at best decent returns they easily could have matches or beaten by speculating on stocks. It's a fad that is declining in popularity. It hasn't even returned to its all time high, and adjusting for inflation, it's now well below it. At some point, people are simply going to stop caring about Bitcoin, and as an "asset" that derives literally its entire value from popularity and perception, that means its long term outlook is utterly abysmal.

 

[Judoka]

I think we can all agree that Lyn Alden is a tranny.

 

[chance vought]

 

[chance vought]

I think we can all agree that Lyn Alden is a tranny.

I can’t argue that point, she? is androgynous and her voice doesn’t help. If she really is female it’s a shame all the other troons running around have us questioning it though.

 

[chance vought]

@scorpion

100% of value is subjective. Something only has value because of the perception of the person that gives it such.

Bitcoin is valuable to some people now, and I predict that number grows in the future. Water is valuable in Saudi Arabia, not so valuable in Mississippi. If the world turns into a desert, a lot more people are going to value water.

You are correct currency is not necessarily money. Zimbabwe dollars are not money, because most of the world does not accept it as money. US dollars are both money and currency. Bitcoin is money, but less accepted than USD. Just because gold is no longer money, doesn’t mean that it wasn’t at one time…currency was required because gold is not very divisible or transportable.

Bitcoin is infinitely divisible and highly transportable. It doesn’t need an abstraction layer of currency like gold did.

 

[Blade Runner]

there is no reason to believe

We've given thousands of reasons. Why do you keep saying this?

All the big money has already been made in Bitcoin

I've heard that before lol - sorta like BTC has died 500 times already. Yawn

currency was required because gold is not very divisible or transportable.

Gold's only option for a modern economy was to be centralized. I don't know how one does not see this at this point, or denies that BTC solves this problem as a matter of fact. It is better in every single category that defines money. It's just nascent, like gold was at one time (but guys like scorpion don't have the imagination to decipher).

At some point, people are simply going to stop caring about Bitcoin

Why? You love to come to conclusions without any supports. I don't see an end to fiat printing anytime soon. So, unless you are claiming the US government and the world of fiat will cease what they are doing, you make absolutely no sense.

 

[JayR]

It's a fad that is declining in popularity.

I don't think you would write this if you saw what I saw in Nashville last month.

 

[Blade Runner]

I always like going back to the most important question, which of course Scorpion doesn't like (for obvious reasons), and that is:

What would change your mind?

Let's say next year we are at new ATHs that are in the six figures, more insurance companies, pensions, financial advisors and companies have added it to portfolios/balance sheet, a sovereign or three have added it to their reserves, etc.

What will you say while we are posting (and laughing) if you don't come clean at that time?

 

[scorpion]

100% of value is subjective. Something only has value because of the perception of the person that gives it such.

Bitcoin is infinitely divisible and highly transportable. It doesn’t need an abstraction layer of currency like gold did.

Given that Bitcoin's value is subjective, and that its properties of being "infinitely divisible and highly transportable" are shared by every other crypto, is it not then obvious that the only real value Bitcoin provides is its popularity/network? And given that the history of technology is one of constant change, innovation and adoption of new products/inventions, is not quite ridiculous to believe that Bitcoin will remain popular for years and decades to come? Especially given the fact that the past several years have been extremely stagnant compared to the explosive early growth of Bitcoin, and that crypto's cultural popularity has already peaked.

Why? You love to come to conclusions without any supports. I don't see an end to fiat printing anytime soon. So, unless you are claiming the US government and the world of fiat will cease what they are doing, you make absolutely no sense.

Again, why do you think that fiat printing automatically makes Bitcoin valuable? There is no logical link between the two, except in the sense that fiat printing devalues the dollar and thereby increases the price of everything denominated in dollars. But that does not automatically assign Bitcoin any special value as an asset. You keep going back and forth trumpeting Bitcoin as both an asset and a currency (I don't think you are intentionally being dishonest by doing this, I think you honestly don't even realize you do it because you've consumed so much Bitcoin propaganda), but by definition it cannot function as both.

I always like going back to the most important question, which of course Scorpion doesn't like (for obvious reasons), and that is:

What would change your mind?

Let's say next year we are at new ATHs that are in the six figures, more insurance companies, pensions, financial advisors and companies have added it to portfolios/balance sheet, a sovereign or three have added it to their reserves, etc.

What will you say while we are posting (and laughing) if you don't come clean at that time?

Why do you continually post this as some rhetorical zinger, when you really should be asking yourself this question in reverse?

"At what point am I going to admit that Bitcoin is a fad speculative asset that will never come close to achieving the pie in the sky promises its proponents have been touting for years?"

Given that you have been predicting 100k Bitcoin was just around the corner for going on four years now, the onus really should be on YOU to defend this increasingly ludicrous position.

I don't think you would write this if you saw what I saw in Nashville last month.

Go to any large gathering of zealous cult members, you'll feel the buzz in the air. Doesn't mean they're on the truth. Certainly doesn't mean you'd want to be involved with them.

 

[chance vought]

Why do you continually post this as some rhetorical zinger, when you really should be asking yourself this question in reverse?

"At what point am I going to admit that Bitcoin is a fad speculative asset that will never come close to achieving the pie in the sky promises its proponents have been touting for years?"
.

When these charts reverse.

 

[chance vought]

 

[chance vought]

 

[scorpion]

Bitcoin's performance since 2021 has been extremely unimpressive, and nothing like the explosive growth that occurred between 2009-2017. Anyone buying in post-2017 bull run, and especially post-2021, is just setting themselves up as a bag holder.

 

[chance vought]

Fed money printing is on a 4 year cycle, coincident with the election cycle. Zooming in on a 3 year timeframe is too short. Don’t compare the previous market and liquidity top to this point in time, this isn’t peak liquidity yet. Let’s talk 12 months from now.

 

[Blade Runner]

But that does not automatically assign Bitcoin any special value as an asset.

No, but you can't see that since all money is relative and worthless (fiat), number go up does matter. What's more, the more the central banks print the more obvious it becomes to even people like you. That's also one of our theses: it doesn't matter how you feel, or what you project, you'll have no choice unless you wanna keep eating fiat dookie.

Why do you continually post this as some rhetorical zinger, when you really should be asking yourself this question in reverse?

As chance vought said, my response will echo: when it stops going up and to the right.

Now answer the question. If the answer is "never" (insert mumbo jumbo beyond that), why do you post here? I honestly don't get it. We're doing you a favor, but the I fear the crystallization is complete.

 

[Australia Sucks]

We've given thousands of reasons. Why do you keep saying this?

I've heard that before lol - sorta like BTC has died 500 times already. Yawn

Gold's only option for a modern economy was to be centralized. I don't know how one does not see this at this point, or denies that BTC solves this problem as a matter of fact. It is better in every single category that defines money. It's just nascent, like gold was at one time (but guys like scorpion don't have the imagination to decipher).

Why? You love to come to conclusions without any supports. I don't see an end to fiat printing anytime soon. So, unless you are claiming the US government and the world of fiat will cease what they are doing, you make absolutely no sense.

I still feel like there is no reason that Gold and Bitcoin cannot co-exist because they both have different strengths. The fact that physical gold can be exchanged or bought or sold with zero paper trail and digital trail and the fact that physical gold still functions in an electricity outage or internet outage means that somebody who owns both gold and bitcoin is protected against a wider range of eventualities. Bitcoin is easily transportable if you need to leave the country, etc (gold is hard to move across borders). Whereas physical Gold can still work if in as a grid outage or internet outage (natural disasters, EMP warfare, etc).

 

[chance vought]

I still feel like there is no reason that Gold and Bitcoin cannot co-exist because they both have different strengths. The fact that physical gold can be exchanged or bought or sold with zero paper trail and digital trail and the fact that physical gold still functions in an electricity outage or internet outage means that somebody who owns both gold and bitcoin is protected against a wider range of eventualities. Bitcoin is easily transportable if you need to leave the country, etc (gold is hard to move across borders). Whereas physical Gold can still work if in as a grid outage or internet outage (natural disasters, EMP warfare, etc).

I see that point of view, and it works, maybe?

A full scale grid down or EMP warfare is what I consider a civilization ending event…civilization ends, mad max ensues. What do you think will happen to your physical property, including gold?
1) It won’t be very secure.
2) will there be enough people alive for an economy big enough for money, or will it be subsistence survival and raiding parties?
3) I think Bitcoin outperforms gold in this scenario, because it isn’t physical…theft is impossible, giving it a huge security advantage.
4) don’t forget just how redundant and robust the Bitcoin network is…even with internet and computer disruptions, clownstrike had many banks down for hours, affecting millions of people, Bitcoin was tick-tock next block.

Maybe there are very specific scenarios where gold has the advantage, but it would be such a specific and rare set of circumstances, I don’t think the opportunity cost of owning gold is worth it.

Also bitcoin can be traded physically, with no digital or paper trail. A sats card or a open dime.

 

[Blade Runner]

Maybe there are very specific scenarios where gold has the advantage, but it would be such a specific and rare set of circumstances, I don’t think the opportunity cost of owning gold is worth it.

I have put it this way before too; it's so rare and so dire where gold technically might be better, it's essentially irrelevant.

 

[Australia Sucks]

4) don’t forget just how redundant and robust the Bitcoin network is…even with internet and computer disruptions, clownstrike had many banks down for hours, affecting millions of people, Bitcoin was tick-tock next block.

The whole Bitcoin Network doesn't even need to go down. For example you could be in a country at war and the borders could be locked down due to martial law etc and meanwhile there are grid outages due to bombing or EMP warfare, cyber hacks, etc. So yes the network might still be functional and operational in other countries but for the meantime you are locked out of it due to not having electricity/internet access. In the meantime if you have a stash of gold and silver coins you can use them to buy what you need (assuming fiat has collapsed in your country due to the war situation or bank accounts are frozen, etc). That is just one possible scenario.

And for example if you know you are going to end up in a very remote and isolated place gold can be useful. Even a member of a tribe deep in the Amazon forest likely knows what gold is and knows its highly valuable. Gold has more than 5000 years of general acceptance by humans and that is something valuable in and of itself.

 

[Blade Runner]

I have no problem with holding physical gold, but it should be small amounts because of the opportunity costs aforementioned. Also, it tends to have the same problem that the CIA guy (Bustamante?) mentioned, which might in some way be solved with persistent inflation, but that is the holding of cash if the banks go down or one can't get currency all of a sudden. He says to get lower denomination bills because no one will have change. That's a big problem if you have gold coins that are 1 oz, since those are going to be worth thousands of dollars.