There's a window of merely 1month left for them to happen something before spot ETFs get approved and price probably goes once again up just before halving. On the other hand, oscillators are screaming for a retracement on both weekly and monthly, especially stochastic rsi.
Why cant the SEC reject the ARK application and approve a bunch of them in march? I apologise if this is a dumb question but I don't get why Jan 10 is the final due date for spot etfs
I was just about to make this prediction. They will reject ARK and give no reason, and the sad truth is that we know the SEC is corrupt and a joke, and it doesn't matter if someone sues them back (ARK will). Then they'll reject the other ETFs, there will be a selloff, and then they'll finally approve them in March or April - perfect for the BlackRock's of the world who will snap that BTC up after the selloff at a price at most at ~30k, or less.
I'm guessing, but if we are honest, this is far more likely than anyone expects - Gensler et al literally can do whatever they want. Think of it, GBTC and Ripple "won" but nothing actually happened, and what is some smarmy judge going to say to them, chide them with words like "arbitrary and capricious"? The SEC doesn't care, since words do nothing, nor do rulings against them. Quite clearly.
People frequently fall into this "how can they do X, Y or Z" based on some logical assessment. As if government clown world has anything to do with integrity, logic or what is written actually in the law. Words on paper mean very little when the culture and thus the central powers are at all time high levels of debasement - like the monetary system (wink wink).
That's a very likely scenario, you're right, actually the most likely one..
Also aligned with indies screaming overbought on long timeframes. I do believe we should see some dry months, before halving, with price oscillating around 30k (or less?) before Blackrock ETF gets approved first of course, then the other less important jews will get their approval too..
Nice to see Bitcoin going up to 42,500+ recently.
Seems to me like the halving might have a much smaller effect than in previous halvings. The total BTC rewarded is just much smaller now, although it is priced much higher than previously.
Also, will this cause a lot of miners to drop out? Liquidate all their equipment as it doesn't provide the same ROI? What will that do to the price?
Seems to me like the halving might have a much smaller effect than in previous halvings. The total BTC rewarded is just much smaller now, although it is priced much higher than previously.
Also, will this cause a lot of miners to drop out? Liquidate all their equipment as it doesn't provide the same ROI? What will that do to the price?
Pretty much spot on. This is why I am much more skeptical to see big gains in btc this bull run without the spot etf
Great questions. You might be on to something here, but that also sets it up to be more correlated with a big stock market drawdown in 2024 as well, though it will go up, and even faster, after printer go brr
The miners are a very tough call to make. I'm considering them, but since I was waiting on the drop, no way I buy in right now, which is my same feeling for BTC since I still believe there is a high probability for SEC shenanigans in January.
I've seen it stated that the only model for BTC that held up over the last bull is the BTC power law model.
This gives you a range of about $100k-500k by the end of the next bull (late 2025).
There are the wildcards of an ETF, dollar weakness and recession.
If there is a recession + dollar weakness + a BTC ETF, I think $500K is possible, but probably lower. AS we've seen with the current dollar weakness, people have been flowing into metals and crypto. If stocks take a hit and people are not keen on the dollar, there's trillions to flow into crypto and ETFs, ETNs.
BTC at $500,000 = $10T. Global stocks = about $100T. I think bonds are more like $125B. Throw in some other assets, a total of $250T. BTC would need to suck in about 4% of liquid assets in a crisis to hit $500K.
Generally I think $200K is most likely, based on the strength of the current movement. The March 2023 movement was also strong.
This gives you a range of about $100k-500k by the end of the next bull (late 2025).
There are the wildcards of an ETF, dollar weakness and recession.
If there is a recession + dollar weakness + a BTC ETF, I think $500K is possible, but probably lower. AS we've seen with the current dollar weakness, people have been flowing into metals and crypto. If stocks take a hit and people are not keen on the dollar, there's trillions to flow into crypto and ETFs, ETNs.
BTC at $500,000 = $10T. Global stocks = about $100T. I think bonds are more like $125B. Throw in some other assets, a total of $250T. BTC would need to suck in about 4% of liquid assets in a crisis to hit $500K.
Generally I think $200K is most likely, based on the strength of the current movement. The March 2023 movement was also strong.
The only question for me is what will be our low in the next 6 months. After the halving, which is estimated in April, you pretty much only have 2 months at most before it goes parabolic, and that's at the latest. We have one last chance to get into this asset, which I estimate will be in this final 6 month period. I would have said January a few months back, but now with recession even more clear and some possible movement down with stocks, it could be that we have just a bit more time. It could also be that if something breaks, and it is banking related, it could catapult everything much more quickly to well over six digits.
Pullback around the halving, then? Liquidity will ironically continue to contract now, especially since the people who think rate cuts are coming aren't going to get them anytime soon.
It was due for a correction anyway.
Now the question is how low do we go, and what happens when the ETF is either approved (and sell on the news?) or rejected and sold off a bit. Then comes the recession. 2024 will be a very strange year.
I didn't buy as much as I should have this year owing to worry about what a recession would do to the price. It seems the best option would be to DCA over the coming year. I'd say this has about 4-6 weeks to come down on TA. Down to about $30K.
Has Woo made an ATH call? He was pretty good at calls last season, up until the end )