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Bitcoin and Crypto Thread

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Thefinalepic said:
What is everyone's sentiment on Monero? To me, it seems to solve the privacy concerns of bitcoin, and is being used rampantly on the Darknet (whether this is a "good" or "bad" thing is another discussion - the point is that it is being used).
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I definitely think it's a lot better fit for the purposes Bitcoin claims to have (mainly becoming an actual currency). It would be a shame if Bitcoin was widely adopted as a currency instead of Monero, as Bitcoin is far less private than cash or even cards.
 
Blade Runner said:
Did anyone see that kraken message? I saw an email posted on twitter that was about older transactions for a higher amount, but it was for years 2016-20, where they said they'd be giving information to the feds (irs). I couldn't tell, and someone else asked, if that means that beyond that they've been giving information (which I sort of presumed). I think what this is is trying to determine if someone sold or was trading/staking in that time period and didn't declare it as a capital gain on taxes back then, no?

All in all, I'm curious as to the degree to which this is just tax inquiry or chokepoint kind of stuff moving ahead.
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I knew Kraken was sharing some information, but I heard from several people that they were one of the better exchanges (especially compared to places like Coinbase) in terms of privacy. Not really sure how true that is though.
 
Ember said:


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Off-topic, but couldn’t resist:
IMG_6151.jpeg
 
So I got my inherited IRA set up with Unchained Capital as a Bitcoin IRA and the BTC hit my account today. The whole process took about 2 weeks, and required signing a lot of forms electronically, but not that big a deal.

Solera National Bank out of Colorado is the administrator of the IRA, while Unchained handles the Bitcoin part of it.

Unchained requires that you have two hardware wallets available to store 2 of the 3 keys -- they support Trezor, Coldcard, and Ledger. I happened to have two Trezors kicking around so that was nice. One Trezor was new in the box, but the other Trezor was already open/in use and I'd already put some BTC on it, but I was still able to use it to get the IRA going.

For a fee (couple hundred bucks, I think) Unchained offers a "concierge" service to hold your hand while getting things set up, but if you've ever used a hardware wallet, you won't need the help. This old man found it very straightforward.

The $995 account setup fee was pretty steep (had to pay this with credit card), as is the $200 annual account maintenance fee, but if BTC takes off like I think it will over the next 10 years (the period by which my inherited IRA must be fully depleted), I expect these fees will be relatively insignificant.

Joost said:
Are you going to gamble your uncle’s life savings?

Put it in a savings account. You can get 5.2% APY with zero risk (up to $250k). Money markets will pay you the same.

Buy assets if prices come down.
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I'm not going to say how much I inherited, but it was a modest amount (low 5-figures -- far less than my uncle's life savings). It's an amount can afford to lose. That said, I feel much better about having my money in a hard asset like Bitcoin than in a 5% savings account that barely keeps up with inflation. I understand the appeal of the FDIC insurance, but one of the most important features of Unchained is that I get to hold the keys to my Bitcoin. If Unchained or Solera goes belly-up FTX style, my BTC is safe because I hold 2 of the 3 keys. I'm de-dollarizing as fast as I can as the money printer continues to go brrrrrr. Also, I think if I took my money out of the inherited IRA to invest in a savings or money-market account, it would trigger an unwelcome tax event.

I'm not affiliated with Unchained Capital in any way other than being a new customer. There may be other/better Bitcoin IRA programs out there (I saw iTrust mentioned above), so please do your own research. I'm posting this information only to help my CiK friends and grow the Bitcoin community.
 
What are everyone's predictions for the likely 2024/2025 cycle highs?
 
Blade Runner said:
2025 it reaches 200s
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I'd also say this. I don't have it to hand, but there is one long-term model that is is still following BTC's long-term movement. That is pointing to something like $225k.

But I don't see BTC performing so well in these tight monetary conditions and staring at an epic recession. All past BTC prcice history was under easy money conditions. It makese sense that will change now and mirror all other assets - down, muted.

I think it's most likely the next bull rally is against the backdrop of a recession. At the very best, maybe the tail-end of one. I can't see any likelihood of easy money policies by Dec 2025. And so the next peak may not be more than the low $100k range.

If easy money policy returns we could see more of a pre-bull run in 2027.

On the other hand, if authorities start seizing assets that is the uber-bull case for BTC. It depends on how much is seized, but if it's a lot BTC and physical PMs become the only safe havens, and I could see BTC going to $1m. I think this happens in the 2030s though.
 
Cynllo said:
But I don't see BTC performing so well in these tight monetary conditions and staring at an epic recession. All past BTC prcice history was under easy money conditions. It makese sense that will change now and mirror all other assets - down, muted.
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This is also true and I can see it behaving different in a bear explanation overall (which we should always consider) but it is also possible that it will gain far more market cap than even we think if the guys like Finkelstein are serious with their "flight to quality" comments. The math is there, quite simply, for an upside explosion and displacement given how strange these times are.

I'm sure we'll talk about the CBDC and their attempts to do all sorts of things that aren't clear yet regarding anyone actually agreeing to them and utilizing them in common life, more than cash, etc - that also includes a battle with credit card companies ... man there are so many levels to this attempt at drastic change and digital transfers, payments, and privacy. Of course, they'll attempt to carrot stick people with welfare benefits, health care payments, and SS, but there are so many old people that aren't savvy or capable at all in using tech, who the F knows how it all will work out.
 
mountainaire said:
So you guys are saying it's not too late for those who haven't got in yet?
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On the contrary, this is your last chance. Right now I see one more move down, maybe to low 20s at the lowest, but probably 24-25 unless the spooking happens with a huge crisis soon ... but if that happens it might be so quick you technically won't be able to get in at the ultimate low.
 
Solana is posed to overtake ETH as the lead big cap Alt this cycle. It would be quite a comeback story too and would provide the best mix of risk/reward.

I make this case through both SOLBTC and SOLETH chart - it is starting to make higher highs and higher lows on Weekly timeframe on those two charts.

I haven't purchased any at the bottom - but will be looking at the next dip to acquire - and I don't focus on fundamentals - just purely technicals.
 
Blade Runner said:
On the contrary, this is your last chance. Right now I see one more move down, maybe to low 20s at the lowest, but probably 24-25 unless the spooking happens with a huge crisis soon ... but if that happens it might be so quick you technically won't be able to get in at the ultimate low.
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Yeah I think it will dip at some point before the halving for sure. I got most of my 'bag' in January this year after waiting most of 2022 for it to go lower. I thought it might make one more move down but once the tide started shifting in the first week or two of the new year I realized I better jump in before it was too late.
 
expectation said:
Solana is posed to overtake ETH as the lead big cap Alt this cycle. It would be quite a comeback story too and would provide the best mix of risk/reward.

I make this case through both SOLBTC and SOLETH chart - it is starting to make higher highs and higher lows on Weekly timeframe on those two charts.

I haven't purchased any at the bottom - but will be looking at the next dip to acquire - and I don't focus on fundamentals - just purely technicals.
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I have about 1-2% in Solana, but am not that bullish on it. There's very low activity on the network and there is less than $500M locked in DeFi on it:

defillama.com

DefiLlama

DefiLlama is a DeFi TVL aggregator. It is committed to providing accurate data without ads or sponsored content, as well as transparency.
defillama.com defillama.com

Or about 1% of everything locked on every chain.

They've not been able to attract many projects to it. I see the to 2025 season seeing better runs for the L2s on ETH, which have attracted several billion locked between them. I think price action will follow on-chain activity.

For alt choices I am looking at coins that did very well from Jan this year (and hopefully) crashed a lot. I think they will have a good time in the real bull market. Some being Stacks, Gala, Alex on Stacks, OP, Render, Presearch.
 
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