The China Thread

[expectation]

I like how the lady that started this theory didn't believe in it when she wrote her own profile on her website.

Lady is hustling your crowd good for engagement bucks.

Funny enough, she made the claim that Xi had a stroke while I was watching him live giving a speech early last year.

You guys are too funny.

 

[Get2choppaaa]

I like how the lady that started this theory didn't believe in it when she wrote her own profile on her website. She is hustling your crowd good for engagement.

Funny enough, she made the claim that Xi had a stroke while I was watching him several hours later early last year.

You guys are too funny.


View attachment 26895View attachment 26896

Have you ever interacted with the Chinese in business? Are you suggesting that they don't keep 2 sets of books?

Why do you trust CCP data whole cloth and don't apply the same skepticism we do to anything the US says?

 

[expectation]

Have you ever interacted with the Chinese in business? Are you suggesting that they don't keep 2 sets of books?

Why do you trust CCP data whole cloth and don't apply the same skepticism we do to anything the US says?

Because I moved to Hong Kong and have been in and out of China for the past decade. So I've interacted with them plenty, recently and not a decade+ ago like a good amount of the posters here that base their stories.

10 years ago, I held similar views as you.

 

[Cooper]

OK after a little googling, I think I understand a little better. Each of the geographic areas in China gets money from the central government based off of population..

Do you think that the provinces can lie to their central government about something as basic as the size of their population by a factor of 250%??

They have had effectively 50 years of the 1 child policy. 1979 to 2015.

Here's an article discussing why their population is overinflated. China’s Population-Control Disaster by Yi Fuxian - Project Syndicate https://www.project-syndicate.org/c...ulation-control-policies-by-yi-fuxian-2023-08

The fertility rate in China before 1980 was over 5.0, that alone could account for their population almost doubling between 1950 and 1980.

Your guy here, Yi Fuxian, does seem like a serious researcher. His estimate of the Chinese population today is 1.28 billion, which is a reasonable number, about 9% higher than official estimates. On the other hand, the statement by that Falun Gong lady above of China's population being around 500 million is complete bunk.

Yi Fuxian, a researcher at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, argues that China's population is significantly smaller and declining faster than official figures, estimating it was around 1.28 billion in 2020, not the reported 1.41 billion,

 

[Get2choppaaa]

Because I moved to Hong Kong and have been in and out of China for the past decade. So I've interacted with them plenty, recently and not a decade+ ago like a good amount of the posters here that base their stories.

10 years ago, I held similar views as you.

Fair. Maybe lifting there in Hong Kong it's different and your milage varies.

My good friend (1/2 Taiwanese) actually pulled his manufacturing and facilities out of China after growing issues between his plant and the government. Rampant corruption/poor quality etc

When I was a supply chain manager ordering manufactured equipment from Chinese suppliers we were often ripped off with bunk products, or maybe 1 in 3 batches of material was actually reflecting the details required in the specs.

Knowing that a company we have set up over there had 2 sets of books (1 for us and 1 for them) also led to tons of audit questions and issues as an American company (all be it private) trying to follow da accounting rules the company was under...

Do you think that the provinces can lie to their central government about something as basic as the size of their population by a factor of 250%??




The fertility rate in China before 1980 was over 5.0, that alone could account for their population almost doubling between 1950 and 1980.

Your guy here, Yi Fuxian, does seem like a serious researcher. His estimate of the Chinese population today is 1.28 billion, which is a reasonable number, about 9% higher than official estimates. On the other hand, the statement by that Falun Gong lady above of China's population being around 500 million is complete bunk.

I don't think 250 percent and I'm not buying the 500 million number. My point was simply that I don't believe the CCP data and I know they aren't transparent.

Believing that while not believing our own government is a bit ironic no?

 

[eradicator]

I like how the lady that started this theory didn't believe in it when she wrote her own profile on her website.

Lady is hustling your crowd good for engagement bucks.

Funny enough, she made the claim that Xi had a stroke while I was watching him live giving a speech early last year.

You guys are too funny.

Ok, you think China is giving an accurate estimate of their population?

Why are they keeping their ghost cities empty? Why build them in the first place if it’s not part of a larger scam?

 

[Get2choppaaa]

Ok, you think China is giving an accurate estimate of their population?

Why are they keeping their ghost cities empty? Why build them in the first place if it’s not part of a larger scam?

They have to have capital investments in these projects to stimulate economy.

Part of the top down central planner impact of a command economy as the Communists operate

 

[eradicator]

Do you think that the provinces can lie to their central government about something as basic as the size of their population by a factor of 250%??

The fertility rate in China before 1980 was over 5.0, that alone could account for their population almost doubling between 1950 and 1980.

Your guy here, Yi Fuxian, does seem like a serious researcher. His estimate of the Chinese population today is 1.28 billion, which is a reasonable number, about 9% higher than official estimates. On the other hand, the statement by that Falun Gong lady above of China's population being around 500 million is complete bunk.

You’re leaving out the other half of the equation: having a one child policy would effectively cut their population in half for that generation


Do I think the Chinese provinces lie about their population and exaggerate the number? Sure .

 

[expectation]

Ok, you think China is giving an accurate estimate of their population?

Why are they keeping their ghost cities empty? Why build them in the first place if it’s not part of a larger scam?

Yeah - its accurate. I'm sure you can do a sanity check on food imports, transportation data, cell data, and electricity generation to see if it aligns and use Grok/DeepSeek/LLM to check for you.

They're not empty. Local governments preplanned their cities and intentionally oversupply to ensure housing ownership is a high % as principal policy. Its the opposite of Hong Kong, where Real Estate Oligarchies like Li Ka Shing capture regulatory policies to keep housing supply low and extract rent and profit as much as possible.

Have you heard the meme "Housing is for living, not for speculation?" It is a legit PRC policy to favor home ownership % through making homes affordable over using housing as a wealth creation tool.

So these new Mainland cities will start off as ghost towns and then gradually become more populated as buyers begin to step in. I'm sure there are cases where they mess up the planning and have to adjust though.

Here is Small Brained American visiting Ordos - and the article that started it all. As you can see, there are people and infrastructure is working through SBA...

Ordos: The biggest ghost town in China

A mining boom in Inner Mongolia led to a large-scale house building programme, but in Ordos the houses stand empty, a sign that China's housing bubble may have burst, says Peter Day.

www.bbc.com

Will Hongkongers ever learn the true value of a home?

Wealth creation should never be more important than our quality of life, and the Hong Kong government’s policy to encourage home ownership should not ignore other ways to give people a stake in society

www.scmp.com

 

[expectation]

Fair. Maybe lifting there in Hong Kong it's different and your milage varies.

My good friend (1/2 Taiwanese) actually pulled his manufacturing and facilities out of China after growing issues between his plant and the government. Rampant corruption/poor quality etc

When I was a supply chain manager ordering manufactured equipment from Chinese suppliers we were often ripped off with bunk products, or maybe 1 in 3 batches of material was actually reflecting the details required in the specs.

Knowing that a company we have set up over there had 2 sets of books (1 for us and 1 for them) also led to tons of audit questions and issues as an American company (all be it private) trying to follow da accounting rules the company was under...

I don't think 250 percent and I'm not buying the 500 million number. My point was simply that I don't believe the CCP data and I know they aren't transparent.

Believing that while not believing our own government is a bit ironic no?

Sorry to hear about your friend. I heard that the previous decade was practically like the wild west and individual Chinese especially from that generation can be very greedy and would take advantage of those not careful. I definitely don't see it with the new youth though - the education system and the evolution of the environment had shaped them up pretty well - I actually preferred Mainlanders over local HK'ers leading engagements that I had managed with Fortune 500 clients actually during my time at Big 4 consulting.

Believing that while not believing our own government is a bit ironic no?

At the same token, this forum has pages and pages of Deep content on Js owning the media and how they are not trust worthy so believing it from the same industry yet you expect truth about China and other adversities from the same media complex that they own. Ironic indeed.

BTW, I know you listen to Miles Guo as you have a habit of mentioning him. Did you get a chance to watch him attempt to orchestrate the Hong Kong Protest 2019 on Steve Bannon's show? Through living through HK 2019, I understood how narratives can be weaponized and how essential it is to identify that in order to navigate this world.

Post in thread 'The China Thread'

Nov 25, 2024

re: Hong Kong Protestors Update

Here is an interesting video I've found in my feed. Here we have...

• Jimmy Lai, begging for additional support from US & UK in a news outlet
• Miles Guo giving orders to the HK Protestors during a livestream with Steven Bannon
• Miles Guo giving a sitrep with one of the protest organizers with promise of additional foreign support and funding
• Some examples of illegal activities from the rioters including
  • Built up barricades to block traffic
  • Intercepted and harassed private cars/passerby while masked
  • Rioters trespass on private...

• expectation

• 
• 

 

[Get2choppaaa]

Sorry to hear about your friend. I heard that the previous decade was practically like the wild west and individual Chinese especially from that generation can be very greedy and would take advantage of those not careful. I definitely don't see it with the new youth though - the education system shaped them up pretty well - I actually preferred Mainlanders over local HK'ers leading engagements that I had managed with clients actually during my time at Big 4 consulting.

My buddy pulled out in 2018 right before covid. He's actually a well known internet persona in LEAN manufacturing now and real estate but that's a different story.

Experience may also be largely based on your own size and company scale. If you're carrying a Big 4 reputation you're going to get different engagement than a smaller company trying to do this on their own.... I'm sure you've considered that though.

At the same token, this forum has pages and pages of Deep content on Js owning the media and how they are not trust worthy so believing it from the same industry yet you expect truth about China from the same media complex that they own. Ironic indeed.

This is my point im skeptical on both sides and only basing my opinion on what I have witnessed and people I trust. I don't trust media on any side with out my own discernment.

China also has tons of Israeli influence as you are no doubt well aware of.

Surely youre not trying to imply I'm saying our government is totally trust worthy and only theirs isn't. In the military I've been involved in things only to see the fox news headline be factually wrong yet the public statement from the DOD (or DOW now) is who's cited. I'm well aware the entire news media is in on it.

BTW, I know you listen to Miles Guo as you have a habit of mentioning him. Did you get a chance to watch him attempt to orchestrate the Hong Kong Protest 2019 on Steve Bannon's show? Through living through HK 2019, I understood how narratives can be weaponized.

Post in thread 'The China Thread'

Nov 25, 2024

re: Hong Kong Protestors Update

Here is an interesting video I've found in my feed. Here we have...

• Jimmy Lai, begging for additional support from US & UK in a news outlet
• Miles Guo giving orders to the HK Protestors during a livestream with Steven Bannon
• Miles Guo giving a sitrep with one of the protest organizers with promise of additional foreign support and funding
• Some examples of illegal activities from the rioters including
  • Built up barricades to block traffic
  • Intercepted and harassed private cars/passerby while masked
  • Rioters trespass on private...

• expectation

• 
• 

Yeah I am aware of Guo and his issues with the CCP. I'm not so much a fan of his....but I am of Steve Bannon. Whom is one of the only really American first voices out there. GUO funded his show before it took off during the war room pandemic era

For the record I hate Communists so I tend to want to side with anyone who is anti communist. Guo has his own issues.

I occasionally watch the Duran as well and their take on China is often pretty middle of the road.

They have made several incorrect predictions about the rate of decline of America and their military and trade stuff is so so.

THe other thing is that there are tons and tons and tons of Chinese bots out there. Tons of them. All pushing bullshit abkut Chinas military and their tech and their capabilities. I believe fuck all when it comes to that.