The Israel-Hamas War Lounge

[It_Is_My_Time]

Oh, OK. So by giving Israel what it wants and letting it achieve strategic and tactical victories Iran is actually winning because in 5-10 years BRICS. Makes absolutely zero sense. If Iran would be working from a position of strength they'd at least try to maintain the status quo.

FYI, BRICS is a loose trade oriented organisation. People keep talking about it as if it's some sort of of brown NATO equivalent ready to challenge US hegemony. Reality: half the BRICS participants hate each other with a vigor, the other half have cordial relations with the US yet prefer sitting on two fences, and neither Russia nor China operate in bloc - both of them still can't court and maintain alliances, even with states in their periphery.

Your scenario, like all your posts, is highly biased due to personal preferences. The US is not going to leave the MENA and China and Russia can't make it. Period. In addition neither the Saudis nor the Emiratis nor the Indians nor the Israelis nor the Turks nor the Egyptians want the US to leave, so there's that too.

Neither is the future isolation of Israel going to happen. Look a little bit beyond the clickbaity headlines from questionable channels. Aside from being good with the USA (again, sitting on two fences) Israel is one of the main MENA players in the Belt and Road Initiative. And you'd need at least ten sets of hands to count all the cyber-technology projects Israel and China (and Russia) are engaging in. Has any Arab Gulf state cancelled the Abraham Accords bytheway?

The whole 'time is on our side' shtick is a spin to deal with the looming strategic defeat of the Axis of Resistance forces. They have been talking about confronting and defeating Israel for decades and now that the moment supreme is finally here they are choking. The only longterm development that could benefit Iran is the tilting demographic balance in Israel itself - but that's hardly 9D chess ran from Tehran.

Iran still got time to turn this around but not by sticking to the current course and fantasizing about multi-generational 'masterplans' whilst it's carefully build up proxies get either battered or destroyed.

The only question that really matters is where will China go. Xi Jinping seems to be able to both work with Israel and also keep them at bay from running his country. But Xi Jinping is only one man and will only live for so long, so where does China go down the road. Does China keep its newfound strong nationalist pride and continue to tell Israel to pound sand, while the USA continues to crumble? If yes, then the best thing Iran can do right now is sit and wait for the USA to continue to self-destruct and then attack when the USA can no longer fight Israel's wars for it. If the next leadership of China is more beholden to Israel, to the point they will arm and supply Israel, then Iran is pretty much boxed in and can only sit and watch.

I guess the point is, Iran's best move right now is to sit and wait. And Israel knows this and will continue to take advantage of it. So, I doubt much of anything comes out of the speech today or the terrorist attack. I think Iran will continue to mostly sit on the sidelines and wait.

TBH, I expect China to eventually be the next empire that Israel runs from behind the curtain. Israel has on purpose destroyed the USA and immigration was the death blow to make sure that if we wanted revenge, we could never have it, because we will have millions of 90 IQ immigrants to continue the destruction (a biological weapon that last perpetually).

I have to give the satanic elites their credit, they are always five steps ahead of everyone else, we can only pray the China tells them to go to hell when the time is right. But counting on the Chinese to do the right thing, after the west did the wrong thing for generations on end, is a fool's errand.

 

[LaAguilaNegra]

The only question that really matters is where will China go. Xi Jinping seems to be able to both work with Israel and also keep them at bay from running his country. But Xi Jinping is only one man and will only live for so long, so where does China go down the road. Does China keep its newfound strong nationalist pride and continue to tell Israel to pound sand, while the USA continues to crumble? If yes, then the best thing Iran can do right now is sit and wait for the USA to continue to self-destruct and then attack when the USA can no longer fight Israel's wars for it. If the next leadership of China is more beholden to Israel, to the point they will arm and supply Israel, then Iran is pretty much boxed in and can only sit and watch.

I guess the point is, Iran's best move right now is to sit and wait. And Israel knows this and will continue to take advantage of it. So, I doubt much of anything comes out of the speech today or the terrorist attack. I think Iran will continue to mostly sit on the sidelines and wait.

TBH, I expect China to eventually be the next empire that Israel runs from behind the curtain. Israel has on purpose destroyed the USA and immigration was the death blow to make sure that if we wanted revenge, we could never have it, because we will have millions of 90 IQ immigrants to continue the destruction (a biological weapon that last perpetually).

I have to give the satanic elites their credit, they are always five steps ahead of everyone else, we can only pray the China tells them to go to hell when the time is right. But counting on the Chinese to do the right thing, after the west did the wrong thing for generations on end, is a fool's errand.

Israel is doing this on its own. The US is not interested in entering the fight beyond protecting shipping lanes. That in itself presents a gigantic opportunity.

Iran's military power projection has always been assymetrical in nature. It's how they circumnavigated the decades of sanctions and isolation. In that light there are so many options to take. From an objective viewpoint the Iranian position in the Middle East is strong. Their proxy network and ballistic missile program could render Israel handicapped - add to that the grinding invasion of Lebanon and potentially Syria afterwards. But they refuse to retaliate.

In my opinion not doing anything has stopped being an option after today. This is the third or fourth red line crossed in a week. At some point non-deterrence turns into lack of credibility. That will de-legitimize the standing of the current leadership in the eyes of the Iranian people. And you don't want to give the people on Tel Aviv the idea that anyone or anything can be hit because there won't be a response anyway. Next thing you know they might be dropping nukes on Beirut to just be done with it.

The topic of China and its relation to the Tribe/Israel deserves its own topic. I agree with you on the current ambiguity. Communist China in its early stages was absolutely a (((project))) but after the Korean War there was a freeze and Mao's isolationism didn't help either. The love flared up again under Nixon/Kissinger when China opened up and all sorts of (((foreign))) capital and influences entered the country. The big question mark is indeed Xi. Some point at the worsening relations and his return to Maoism/patriotism but on the other hand (((Wall Street))) investment continues to do big business in China, even though the latter is de-dollarizing.

 

[It_Is_My_Time]

Israel is doing this on its own. The US is not interested in entering the fight beyond protecting shipping lanes. That in itself presents a gigantic opportunity.

Iran's military power projection has always been assymetrical in nature. It's how they circumnavigated the decades of sanctions and isolation. In that light there are so many options to take. From an objective viewpoint the Iranian position in the Middle East is strong. Their proxy network and ballistic missile program could render Israel handicapped - add to that the grinding invasion of Lebanon and potentially Syria afterwards. But they refuse to retaliate.

In my opinion not doing anything has stopped being an option after today. This is the third or fourth red line crossed in a week. At some point non-deterrence turns into lack of credibility. That will de-legitimize the standing of the current leadership in the eyes of the Iranian people. And you don't want to give the people on Tel Aviv the idea that anyone or anything can be hit because there won't be a response anyway. Next thing you know they might be dropping nukes on Beirut to just be done with it.

The topic of China and its relation to the Tribe/Israel deserves its own topic. I agree with you on the current ambiguity. Communist China in its early stages was absolutely a (((project))) but after the Korean War there was a freeze and Mao's isolationism didn't help either. The love flared up again under Nixon/Kissinger when China opened up and all sorts of (((foreign))) capital and influences entered the country. The big question mark is indeed Xi. Some point at the worsening relations and his return to Maoism/patriotism but on the other hand (((Wall Street))) investment continues to do big business in China, even though the latter is de-dollarizing.

Great post, excellent. TBH, I think Iran has to strike before the GOP gets back into the White House. The USA so far is sitting back and likely will do so, until maybe it is too late. But if we get Trump/Haley/DeSantis, they will start a new war to support Israel. Iran must strike this calendar year or be prepared to be sidelined and likely distrusted by their own people, for a long time.

 

[LaAguilaNegra]

Great post, excellent. TBH, I think Iran has to strike before the GOP gets back into the White House. The USA so far is sitting back and likely will do so, until maybe it is too late. But if we get Trump/Haley/DeSantis, they will start a new war to support Israel. Iran must strike this calendar year or be prepared to be sidelined and likely distrusted by their own people, for a long time.

The statement of Khamenei below.

Al Mayadeen (Hezbollah media channel) says the preliminary death toll is 211.

 

[It_Is_My_Time]

 

[Cooper]

Oh, OK. So by giving Israel what it wants and letting it achieve strategic and tactical victories Iran is actually winning because in 5-10 years BRICS. Makes absolutely zero sense. If Iran would be working from a position of strength they'd at least try to maintain the status quo.

FYI, BRICS is a loose trade oriented organisation. People keep talking about it as if it's some sort of of brown NATO equivalent ready to challenge US hegemony. Reality: half the BRICS participants hate each other with a vigor, the other half have cordial relations with the US yet prefer sitting on two fences, and neither Russia nor China operate in bloc - both of them still can't court and maintain alliances, even with states in their periphery.

Your scenario, like all your posts, is highly biased due to personal preferences. The US is not going to leave the MENA and China and Russia can't make it. Period. In addition neither the Saudis nor the Emiratis nor the Indians nor the Israelis nor the Turks nor the Egyptians want the US to leave, so there's that too.

Neither is the future isolation of Israel going to happen. Look a little bit beyond the clickbaity headlines from questionable channels. Aside from being good with the USA (again, sitting on two fences) Israel is one of the main MENA players in the Belt and Road Initiative. And you'd need at least ten sets of hands to count all the cyber-technology projects Israel and China (and Russia) are engaging in. Has any Arab Gulf state cancelled the Abraham Accords bytheway?

The whole 'time is on our side' shtick is a spin to deal with the looming strategic defeat of the Axis of Resistance forces. They have been talking about confronting and defeating Israel for decades and now that the moment supreme is finally here they are choking. The only longterm development that could benefit Iran is the tilting demographic balance in Israel itself - but that's hardly 9D chess ran from Tehran.

Iran still got time to turn this around but not by sticking to the current course and fantasizing about multi-generational 'masterplans' whilst it's carefully build up proxies get either battered or destroyed.

US military presence in Syria and Iraq is threatened. The troops are vulnerable to Shahed drone attacks, which are a gamechanger. Russia will boost Assad's forces once they finish off Ukraine. The Syrian army will have several thousand Shahed/Geran drones at their disposal in a year or two.

The Gulf states have made it clear that they intend to solidify their relationship with China and Russia. Saudi Arabia has just made the instruction of mandarin mandatory in its secondary school system, that is a very significant development. And while BRICS might not be a formal military alliance, it's an important budding economic and financial structure and a conduit for dedolarization in global trade. China's economic presence in countries like Egypt is growing, at this rate that economic footprint will eclipse the US aid to Egypt.

As a political unit, BRICS is actually quite cohesive, outside of India, which is playing both sides. China might seem to be playing both sides but the DC hawks are not going to force their hand, with people like Haley and DeSantis being representative of that faction.

Oh, OK. So by giving Israel what it wants and letting it achieve strategic and tactical victories Iran is actually winning because in 5-10 years BRICS.

What Israel wants, most of all, is a war between Iran and the US.

Iran still got time to turn this around but not by sticking to the current course and fantasizing about multi-generational 'masterplans' whilst it's carefully build up proxies get either battered or destroyed.

The economic, political and military emergence of the Russia-China-Iran block is not a fantasy.

 

[LaAguilaNegra]

Another spin and moving of goalposts. Just yesterday you alleged that 'Israel would be politically isolated in the near future' and that 'the Iranian leadership getting exposed as blowhards that are all bark and no bite is actually winning" because xyz.

After I then carefully dissected this argument and showed how non-factual, ridiculous and delusional this line of thinking is, the topic is dropped entirely. It's now back to fan-fiction about BRICS and geopolitical scenarios that will never ever come to fruition. Not a word about the argument above anymore. It's like a never ending merry-go-round.

Quite frankly, most of your posts are feel good nonsense designed to keep the discussion away from debating actual developments on the ground - because those are absolutely shattering for the 'Iran winning& Iran strong' narrative. How does one deflect the from the absolute embarrassment that was the past week for Iranian power projection? Simple. You drum up some make-believe story on pending US defeat in the MENA. Complete with the Russian cavalry riding in to save the day. Works wonders every single time. Nota bene: notice how every 'prediction' of yours is always placed in the undisclosed future - ie. it can be recycled ad infinitum.

US military presence in Syria and Iraq is threatened. The troops are vulnerable to Shahed drone attacks, which are a gamechanger. Russia will boost Assad's forces once they finish off Ukraine. The Syrian army will have several thousand Shahed/Geran drones at their disposal in a year or two.

This representation is the complete opposite of the on-the-ground reality. Russia has no interest at all in 'boosting Assad forces' (you probably mean the Syrian Arab Army) and engaging a superior enemy in Syria. It's called self preservation and low key agreements with Israel and all that. Why do you think Netanyahu called Putin a day before the hit on Moussavi? And why does Israel have a carte blanche to strike any IRGC/Hezbollah target in Syria? It's not that hard to figure out. Russia wants Assad dependable on Russia for his survival (ie. a bargaining chip) - and they also want to balance out Iranian influence in Syria.

The initial 2015 intervention was orchestrated on fears of the Qatar-Europe gas/oil pipeline being designed to undercut Russia's market share in the European fossil fuel markets. Now that that ship has sailed Russia uses Syria to maintain a (small) footprint in the Eastern Mediterranean and project power into the neighboring nations.

At the risk of talking to a brick wall, why do you think Syria has been holding off its military operation in Idlib for 6 years and counting? Protip: it ain't the Iranians.

All in all Russia sees Assad as a bargaining chip vis a vis Turkey, Iran, the US and Israel. Putin and Assad are not ideological compatible at all, nor is there much economic depth to that relation. Only in the heads of the disgruntled US MAGA crowd does Russia wage this righteous holy crusade. I am telling you mate, its pure politics. Nothing more and nothing less.

The Gulf states have made it clear that they intend to solidify their relationship with China and Russia. Saudi Arabia has just made the instruction of mandarin mandatory in its secondary school system, that is a very significant development. And while BRICS might not be a formal military alliance, it's an important budding economic and financial structure and a conduit for dedolarization in global trade. China's economic presence in countries like Egypt is growing, at this rate that economic footprint will eclipse the US aid to Egypt

De-dollarization is another talking point that gets relentlessly pushed by the politically charged analyst class - hence why it's getting trampoline'd so hard everywhere one goes. Reality is much more nuanced: the dollar as share of the FOREX reserves has decreased from 70+ percent in 2000 to 58 percent in 2023. However, that decrease is mostly due to rising US friendly currencies. When combining the USD, EUR, GBP, AUD, JPY and CND they land a whopping 94 percent of all FOREX reserves. The CNY stands at 2.69 percent.

There are currently three countries dumping USD, and those are Russia due to the sanctions, China due to economic decoupling (which is preparation for conflict) and Japan due to a weak yen. None of the other state actors are interested in dumping dollars because, let's face it, they know that the Dollar is King and right now deep down nobody is interested in holding CNY (with all its restrictions on the financial markets and all its capital controls) beyond 1-2 percent for optics. They are fencesitters out for the best deal, ie. nobody is going to take a hit for the CNY to become stronger. It will be on the Chinese themselves to achieve that.

Aside from that the USD was the third best performing major currency in 2023 behind the Swiss Franc and the Euro.

As a political unit, BRICS is actually quite cohesive, outside of India, which is playing both sides. China might seem to be playing both sides but the DC hawks are not going to force their hand, with people like Haley and DeSantis being representative of that faction.

BRICS doesn't have a shared agenda beyond facilitating trade, and none of its statements can go any farther than milquetoast 'enhancing political cooperation and mutual understanding'.

Here is why that is. Ethiopia is on a warpath with Egypt due to water issues related to the GERD dam. The UAE and the Saudis are at odds over Yemen (which turned into a brief shooting proxy war in 2018-2019). However the UAE and the Saudis band together when it comes to putting a check on Iranian influence. India on the other hand has a massive territorial dispute with China and worsening relations, etc. etc.

Here is the political power of BRICS in one picture. Big P. couldn't travel to South Africa because he would get arrested on the US controlled ICC charges upon landing. Embarrassing.

What Israel wants, most of all, is a war between Iran and the US.

Quickest way for Iran to draw the US in is having its deterrence absolutely demolished, its threats exposed as empty and its proxy network neutered through inaction and ambiguity.

The only reason why the US has so far refrained from action on Iran is the above.

The economic, political and military emergence of the Russia-China-Iran block is not a fantasy.

Respond to post #774, in which I used Lavrov's pro Israel remarks, one translated Russian internal policy document and three examples of strains on the Russia-Iran relationship to prove that the Russia-Iran relationship is not what some make it out to be. Russia and Iran could be natural allies but Russia is keeping Iran at a distance.

Remember what Lavrov said. 'Fighting Nazism is what binds us' [Israel and Russia]. Now try to imagine how this gets perceived in Tehran.

 

[Cooper]

Another spin and moving of goalposts. Just yesterday you alleged that 'Israel would be politically isolated in the near future' and that 'the Iranian leadership getting exposed as blowhards that are all bark and no bite is actually winning" because xyz.

After I then carefully dissected this argument and showed how non-factual, ridiculous and delusional this line of thinking is, the topic is dropped entirely. It's now back to fan-fiction about BRICS and geopolitical scenarios that will never ever come to fruition. Not a word about the argument above anymore. It's like a never ending merry-go-round.

Quite frankly, most of your posts are feel good nonsense designed to keep the discussion away from debating actual developments on the ground - because those are absolutely shattering for the 'Iran winning& Iran strong' narrative. How does one deflect the from the absolute embarrassment that was the past week for Iranian power projection? Simple. You drum up some make-believe story on pending US defeat in the MENA. Complete with the Russian cavalry riding in to save the day. Works wonders every single time. Nota bene: notice how every 'prediction' of yours is always placed in the undisclosed future - ie. it can be recycled ad infinitum.



This representation is the complete opposite of the on-the-ground reality. Russia has no interest at all in 'boosting Assad forces' (you probably mean the Syrian Arab Army) and engaging a superior enemy in Syria. It's called self preservation and low key agreements with Israel and all that. Why do you think Netanyahu called Putin a day before the hit on Moussavi? And why does Israel have a carte blanche to strike any IRGC/Hezbollah target in Syria? It's not that hard to figure out. Russia wants Assad dependable on Russia for his survival (ie. a bargaining chip) - and they also want to balance out Iranian influence in Syria.

The initial 2015 intervention was orchestrated on fears of the Qatar-Europe gas/oil pipeline being designed to undercut Russia's market share in the European fossil fuel markets. Now that that ship has sailed Russia uses Syria to maintain a (small) footprint in the Eastern Mediterranean and project power into the neighboring nations.

At the risk of talking to a brick wall, why do you think Syria has been holding off its military operation in Idlib for 6 years and counting? Protip: it ain't the Iranians.

All in all Russia sees Assad as a bargaining chip vis a vis Turkey, Iran, the US and Israel. Putin and Assad are not ideological compatible at all, nor is there much economic depth to that relation. Only in the heads of the disgruntled US MAGA crowd does Russia wage this righteous holy crusade. I am telling you mate, its pure politics. Nothing more and nothing less.



De-dollarization is another talking point that gets relentlessly pushed by the politically charged analyst class - hence why it's getting trampoline'd so hard everywhere one goes. Reality is much more nuanced: the dollar as share of the FOREX reserves has decreased from 70+ percent in 2000 to 58 percent in 2023. However, that decrease is mostly due to rising US friendly currencies. When combining the USD, EUR, GBP, AUD, JPY and CND they land a whopping 94 percent of all FOREX reserves. The CNY stands at 2.69 percent.

There are currently three countries dumping USD, and those are Russia due to the sanctions, China due to economic decoupling (which is preparation for conflict) and Japan due to a weak yen. None of the other state actors are interested in dumping dollars because, let's face it, they know that the Dollar is King and right now deep down nobody is interested in holding CNY (with all its restrictions on the financial markets and all its capital controls) beyond 1-2 percent for optics. They are fencesitters out for the best deal, ie. nobody is going to take a hit for the CNY to become stronger. It will be on the Chinese themselves to achieve that.

Aside from that the USD was the third best performing major currency in 2023 behind the Swiss Franc and the Euro.

View attachment 3496View attachment 3495



BRICS doesn't have a shared agenda beyond facilitating trade, and none of its statements can go any farther than milquetoast 'enhancing political cooperation and mutual understanding'.

Here is why that is. Ethiopia is on a warpath with Egypt due to water issues related to the GERD dam. The UAE and the Saudis are at odds over Yemen (which turned into a brief shooting proxy war in 2018-2019). However the UAE and the Saudis band together when it comes to putting a check on Iranian influence. India on the other hand has a massive territorial dispute with China and worsening relations, etc. etc.

Here is the political power of BRICS in one picture. Big P. couldn't travel to South Africa because he would get arrested on the US controlled ICC charges upon landing. Embarrassing.

View attachment 3498



Quickest way for Iran to draw the US in is having its deterrence absolutely demolished, its threats exposed as empty and its proxy network neutered through inaction and ambiguity.

The only reason why the US has so far refrained from action on Iran is the above.



Respond to post #774, in which I used Lavrov's pro Israel remarks, one translated Russian internal policy document and three examples of strains on the Russia-Iran relationship to prove that the Russia-Iran relationship is not what some make it out to be. Russia and Iran could be natural allies but Russia is keeping Iran at a distance.

Remember what Lavrov said. 'Fighting Nazism is what binds us' [Israel and Russia]. Now try to imagine how this gets perceived in Tehran.

First of all, please try to adopt a less confrontational attitude, you have a tendency to be needlessly derisive and aggressive, and to personalize a debate, part of the reason you were banned from RVF.



As to your points above:

-Israel is getting politically isolated, they have been losing ground in global public opinion, their operation in Gaza looks like pyrrhic victory.

-Syria offers Russia enormously strategic military bases. The Russian air force base in Syria is currently being used for civilian flights, Israel cannot bomb it.

-The reason why Syria hasn't attacked Idlib is that Assad's forces are relatively exhausted after a decade of fighting a civil war, they also have several other areas to defend in the south and west.

-Why does Israel have a carte blanche to strike any IRGC/Hezbollah target in Syria? Russia is not strong enough to take on Israel (and the US) in Syria yet, their position is not yet secure. They don't want to open another front with their forces being committed in Ukraine. Their AA assets in Syria would be taken out in a few weeks in case of a confrontation. The Russians lack logistical support for their bases in Syria, the situation might change if Iraq becomes more independent, which is the direction it is moving towards.

-Dedollarization is a slow process. The structure of the alternative resource-backed currency is only starting to be put in place. Global trade is being conducted in other currencies, and the petrodollar's future is not secure, for several reasons, including the theft of Russian $ and Eu reserves.

-Lavrov has condemned Israel's conduct of its Gaza war:

 

[Get2choppaaa]

First of all, please try to adopt a less confrontational attitude, you have a tendency to be needlessly derisive and aggressive, and to personalize a debate, part of the reason you were banned from RVF.



As to your points above:

-Israel is getting politically isolated, they have been losing ground in global public opinion, their operation in Gaza looks like pyrrhic victory.

-Syria offers Russia enormously strategic military bases. The Russian air force base in Syria is currently being used for civilian flights, Israel cannot bomb it.

-The reason why Syria hasn't attacked Idlib is that Assad's forces are relatively exhausted after a decade of fighting a civil war, they also have several other areas to defend in the south and west.

-Why does Israel have a carte blanche to strike any IRGC/Hezbollah target in Syria? Russia is not strong enough to take on Israel (and the US) in Syria yet, their position is not yet secure. They don't want to open another front with their forces being committed in Ukraine. Their AA assets in Syria would be taken out in a few weeks in case of a confrontation. The Russians lack logistical support for their bases in Syria, the situation might change if Iraq becomes more independent, which is the direction it is moving towards.

-Dedollarization is a slow process. The structure of the alternative resource-backed currency is only starting to be put in place. Global trade is being conducted in other currencies, and the petrodollar's future is not secure, for several reasons, including the theft of Russian $ and Eu reserves.

-Lavrov has condemned Israel's conduct of its Gaza war:

Bannon has made the point about seizing the Russian dollars and giving to Ukr as a very bold and negative move favoring other countries moving away from the dollar....

But... As brother Nathaniel said to Alex Jones today...and @LaAguilaNegra pointed out.... When it comes to BRICs it's all on the strenght of Putin.

I don't expect Russia to do much about the Israel Gaza deal. To me seems more like lip service for their muzzie trading partners (and a large part of their population/military)

 

[LaAguilaNegra]

-Israel is getting politically isolated, they have been losing ground in global public opinion, their operation in Gaza looks like pyrrhic victory.

Another spin. There doesn't seem to be much of an argument with you. You simply just repeat previous statements ad infinitum - hoping to tire out fellow forum members repeating the same stale takes over and over again.

Israel is not isolated. Show me a single state that has severed relations/acted beyond words with Israel over Gaza aside from the Axis of Resistance. I can think of only one - Malaysia. And that's hardly a deal breaker.

-Syria offers Russia enormously strategic military bases. The Russian air force base in Syria is currently being used for civilian flights, Israel cannot bomb it.

Hmeimim is an extension of al Bassel International Airport, a single runway regional airport without much signifance.

Israel doesn't need to bomb it, because never in a thousand years would Russia allow Iran to run its ratlines through Russian held airports. Instead Iran uses the landroute and Aleppo and Damascus Airports - which both get bombed at least once a week.

The reason why Syria hasn't attacked Idlib is that Assad's forces are relatively exhausted after a decade of fighting a civil war, they also have several other areas to defend in the south and west.

Even Erdogan was prepared to sacrifice Idlib for more wiggling room in the Caucasus and an operation against the PYD. Moscow said no.

Why does Israel have a carte blanche to strike any IRGC/Hezbollah target in Syria? Russia is not strong enough to take on Israel (and the US) in Syria yet, their position is not yet secure. They don't want to open another front with their forces being committed in Ukraine. Their AA assets in Syria would be taken out in a few weeks in case of a confrontation. The Russians lack logistical support for their bases in Syria, the situation might change if Iraq becomes more independent, which is the direction it is moving towards.

Weird lowkey admission of basically all on the topic I've said before.

You still got the motivation wrong. Israel has carte blanche because Russia values its relation with Israel more than a couple of dead IRGC generals in Syria. Instead of trying to fall back in your simplistic black-and-white worldview you might want to read up on the Zionist lobby in Russia, and the many deals between the countries.

-Dedollarization is a slow process. The structure of the alternative resource-backed currency is only starting to be put in place. Global trade is being conducted in other currencies, and the petrodollar's future is not secure, for several reasons, including the theft of Russian $ and Eu reserves.

It's a currently a non-process. As problematic as the USD is, it's leaps and bounds ahead of the CNY. Not even the Chinese believe in the CNY, judging by the rigorous capital controls designed to keep capital from fleeing the country.

Lavrov has condemned Israel's conduct of its Gaza war:

Very cool. Looks great on television. It's called lip service and playing an audience. For the third time, as you keep dodging the question: what has Russia done about it and how does it's inaction compare to the booming trade and cooperation between the two?

First of all, please try to adopt a less confrontational attitude, you have a tendency to be needlessly derisive and aggressive, and to personalize a debate, part of the reason you were banned from RVF.

The derogatory wording and veiled threat masked as concern trolling has been noted. I recognize ban-bait when I see it.

 

[LaAguilaNegra]

Bannon has made the point about seizing the Russian dollars and giving to Ukr as a very bold and negative move favoring other countries moving away from the dollar....

But... As brother Nathaniel said to Alex Jones today...and @LaAguilaNegra pointed out.... When it comes to BRICs it's all on the strenght of Putin.

I don't expect Russia to do much about the Israel Gaza deal. To me seems more like lip service for their muzzie trading partners (and a large part of their population/military)

That's exactly right. The confiscation of Russian assets might scare some of the more independent states, but the stated problems with the whole 'de-dollarization' narrative remain. Unless a real competitor to the USD gets created/ build up this won't go anywhere - excluding a Black Swan type of event. Ergo it's mostly fluff pushed by the agendized analyst class.

The whole Hamas-Israel thing is getting obnoxious and it's time to take a step back and let the whole thing unfold without 24/7 commentary on the internet. It's now mostly about minutiae anyway, as the main course and outcome are largely set in stone. Israel has the upper hand, and will achieve its strategic goals. That's an uncomfortable fact. It will be a slow grinding of Hamas until the latter gets defeated. Seeing the lack of any international response Israel might as well go the whole nine yard and push the Gazans into the Sinai. The spin to frame that as some sort of Iranian W is hilarious though. I think that by now it should be obvious that the world doesn't give a sh1t about the Gazans beyond clicks and clout. It's grim but it's the truth.

It's clear Iran isn't willing to go all in. After last week Haifa and Tel Aviv should have been pounded with thousands of missiles already but they weren't. The three month anniversary of the start of the war will be soon - which for me is a cut off point in terms of potentially increasing Iranian involvement. If it didn't happen in the first three months it's 99 percent sure not going to happen at all. It's not as if Tehran hasn't been presented with plenty of casus belli - God knows what they have been dealing with for 40 years and counting. Israel has gone full gloves off recently and still Tehran clutches those pearls and babbles about 'strategic patience'.

It is what it is.

 

[It_Is_My_Time]

I guess we will see if Iran does anything about this, or just fires off missiles at fake targets in the middle of nowhere.

 

[Edelweiss]

I guess we will see if Iran does anything about this, or just fires off missiles at fake targets in the middle of nowhere.

And what happened afterwards?

 

[It_Is_My_Time]

And what happened afterwards?

This only happened a few hours ago. I think we have to wait a week to find out.

 

[Aldebaran]

That's exactly right. The confiscation of Russian assets might scare some of the more independent states, but the stated problems with the whole 'de-dollarization' narrative remain. Unless a real competitor to the USD gets created/ build up this won't go anywhere - excluding a Black Swan type of event. Ergo it's mostly fluff pushed by the agendized analyst class.

The whole Hamas-Israel thing is getting obnoxious and it's time to take a step back and let the whole thing unfold without 24/7 commentary on the internet. It's now mostly about minutiae anyway, as the main course and outcome are largely set in stone. Israel has the upper hand, and will achieve its strategic goals. That's an uncomfortable fact. It will be a slow grinding of Hamas until the latter gets defeated. Seeing the lack of any international response Israel might as well go the whole nine yard and push the Gazans into the Sinai. The spin to frame that as some sort of Iranian W is hilarious though. I think that by now it should be obvious that the world doesn't give a sh1t about the Gazans beyond clicks and clout. It's grim but it's the truth.

It's clear Iran isn't willing to go all in. After last week Haifa and Tel Aviv should have been pounded with thousands of missiles already but they weren't. The three month anniversary of the start of the war will be soon - which for me is a cut off point in terms of potentially increasing Iranian involvement. If it didn't happen in the first three months it's 99 percent sure not going to happen at all. It's not as if Tehran hasn't been presented with plenty of casus belli - God knows what they have been dealing with for 40 years and counting. Israel has gone full gloves off recently and still Tehran clutches those pearls and babbles about 'strategic patience'.

Everything you say here is correct - in the short term.

Israel has cover from their American puppet state do to everything it likes, and will continue it's genocidal campaign until Gaza is a parking lot - as they have promised. Iran and the Arab nations won't do anything but clutch their pearls, yell at clouds and burn flags. As usual.

Israel was always a satanic and evil entity led by psychopaths, but they can nonetheless bank on the West to cover for them. The zionist entity has managed to infiltrate and pervert Christianity in many places - escpecially in the US, to make people believe that support of the zionist cause is "the Christian thing to do". Case in point: the phrase "Judeo-Christian" which is a complete oxymoron. Not to speak of the infiltration of zionists into various Western governments and institutions.

Still, they have managed to keep their evil deeds somewhat in check - so that the Governments and the Media in the West can cover for them in a somewhat plausible manner (plausible to the 90 % that actually believe the media). All this changed on October 7th, 2023.

The false flag "attack" on October 7th was of course allowed to happen by the Israelis, and most of the casualities probably caused by the IDF and Israeli agents. This is well known on this forum, I presume.

The real interesting thing going forward will be the long term consequenses of the US and Europe's utter failure to respond in accordance with their so-called "values" and "principles". The so-called "Western values" have long since turned into a parody and a sick lie, but have been lauded and hoisted high by the US and the EU until very recently. They have been used historically to justify all matters of foreign interventions and subterfuge, up to and including the ridiculous and ruining support to Ukraine. And people in the West have for the most part believed in these values, even though they naturally have only been used to promote the interests of the ultra-billionaires.

I don't think the final and official death of the so-called "Western values" should be underestimated. When people don't have something to believe in and to justify their contract with the State, they become despondent, indifferent and corrupt. That is how empires collapse. It happened most recently with the Soviet Union, when the majority of people realized that the "Workers' Paradise" was nothing but a lie.

Empires collapse first slowly, then suddenly. But they can run on fumes for a long time. It remains to be seen how long the fumes of the American Empire will last. When they run out, things will get real interesting real fast.

 

[It_Is_My_Time]

33K likes, the dam is breaking.

 

[It_Is_My_Time]

Looks like an escalation.

 

[TruckDriver9]

 

[The Penitent Man]

Per aid groups, more than 10 children per day have lost one or both legs since October 7, often having undergone amputation without anesthesia.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/08/middleeast/gaza-children-losing-legs-disease-intl-hnk/index.html

 

[It_Is_My_Time]