The Israel-Hamas War Lounge

It_Is_My_Time said:
I am pretty sure that even our own govt. admitted that Special Forces were in Gaza, but only in "support roles" and helping in the search for hostages.

If any of our special forces were hurt in this process, or if they hurt anyone else, is probably something we will never know. Or at least not know unless someone spills the beans on it.
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As someone who has done that same mission (not SF, but a cobbled together team under an SF guy) what you all don't realize is that the "support role" means you're driving around in their vehicles, walking alongside them on patrols, and doing basically everything else except kicking in the door yourselves. Hell we had one KIA and three Purple Hearts (including my own) which were picked up as "support".


Any American SF operating in a "support role" would be exposed to the same fires that the unit they are supporting is.
 
easy_c said:
As someone who has done that same mission (not SF, but a cobbled together team under an SF guy) what you all don't realize is that the "support role" means you're driving around in their vehicles, walking alongside them on patrols, and doing basically everything else except kicking in the door yourselves. Hell we had one KIA and three Purple Hearts (including my own) which were picked up as "support".


Any American SF operating in a "support role" would be exposed to the same fires that the unit they are supporting is.
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I very much believe that, which is why it is very likely that we have had men die in Israel already. At a minimum, there have been some injured I am sure, and we may never know it.
 
OrthoSerb said:
They have courage for sure but when your tactics involve walking up to a tank to place explosives on it, that's only going to get you so far.
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It's a sign of their lacking weaponry. Those homemade 105 mm Yassin rockets clearly don't do the job - hence why every video gets cut off straight after impact. That's why they have to haul 15 kg bombs to the tanks, place them manually and run for their lives.

It's a clear contrast with Hezbollah which is armed to the teeth with high grade Iranian weapons. They spend 3-4 Kornets a day on radar installations. Hamas has used 3-4 Kornets since October 7. If Hamas would have had Hezbollah's armament you'd have seen dozens of videos of burning Merkavas in Gaza.
 
To nobody's surprise around here:




155MM in mighty high demand lately. Didn't the US "borrow" some from S. Korea last year for Ukraine? Now, poof, we have aplenty to sell to Israel without congressional approval. This'll probably be the typical "sale" to Israel: US grants money to Israel. Israel negotiates sweetheart arms deal. Israel makes payment to US with granted USD.
 
Pointy Elbows said:
To nobody's surprise around here:




155MM in mighty high demand lately. Didn't the US "borrow" some from S. Korea last year for Ukraine? Now, poof, we have aplenty to sell to Israel without congressional approval. This'll probably be the typical "sale" to Israel: US grants money to Israel. Israel negotiates sweetheart arms deal. Israel makes payment to US with granted USD.
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Yes...indeed. all the .mil contractors love the aid to Israel because it's back in their (our) pockets.

Gross... And as Rick Perry I believe once said...before " he stepped in it" with the 3 gov agencies he said he'd shut down.... at the debate stage... We shouldnt be giving foreign aide to anyone.
 
It_Is_My_Time said:
I very much believe that, which is why it is very likely that we have had men die in Israel already. At a minimum, there have been some injured I am sure, and we may never know it.
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You ever notice how when something shady is going down, there's always a helicopter crash somewhere and a bunch of troops die "in training"?
Don't know if that is logistically possible for covering up or if it's just a coincidence. I'm sure other posters with relevant .mil experience could speak to whether this is even a possibility.
 
Northern Pilgrim said:
You ever notice how when something shady is going down, there's always a helicopter crash somewhere and a bunch of troops die "in training"?
Don't know if that is logistically possible for covering up or if it's just a coincidence. I'm sure other posters with relevant .mil experience could speak to whether this is even a possibility.
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It's all a cohensidence, no need to look in to that ok?
 
Not entirely related, but Netanyahu's judicial reforms got overturned by the Israeli High Court. Basically re-affirming that the High Court can strike down any laws passed in the Knesset ie. It doesn't matter how many seats A or B gets, the High Court ultimately decides. It's a playbook that has often been used in the EU.

Will be very interesting to see how this plays out. The lefty secular Jews supported by the Biden Administration might use this shtick from now on to counter the growing demographic/electoral weight of the Orthodox Jews.

Obviously they will frame it as a 'victory for democracy' whilst in reality it is the opposite.

 
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It_Is_My_Time said:
Hezbollah might get more involved after today...



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Hezbollah's rhetoric is starting to feel empty. Remember how any Israeli ground offensive of Gaza would be met with the harshest response on the Northern front? Well we saw how that panned out.

Just a week ago an IRGC top 3 guy and the organisation's main operative in Syria got canned in an Israeli airstrike and so far there hasn't been a single response beyond the norm. In other words some GRAD rockets on Haifa (all intercepted), couple of drones on US bases in Iraq, etc. This is not how to build deterrence ie. it's going to happen and again and again, and the instances will become more severe (like bombing HVT in aerial raids in Hezbollah territory/ South Beirut)

Israel has been leading the escalation ladder for a long time. Even Ansarallah hasn't responded yet to the three destroyed speed boats and ten casualties.

It's up to Iran and Hezbollah to now prove they are willing and prepared to go the whole nine yards. If they don't Israel will get more audicious and confident. There is even some talk in Israeli media now on the need of a op on the Northern border to push Hezbollah 6-10 km back.
 
Operationally speaking, they're better off sitting back into their mountain redoubts and letting the Israelis attack out in the open. It's a bit tragic that they can't help the people in Gaza but time is on their side, the global balance of power is rebalancing, and that's the reason why the Israelis launched their offensive right now, while the Russians are still mired in the Ukraine war and their US patron is still bossing the eastern Mediterranean.
 
Cooper said:
Operationally speaking, they're better off sitting back into their mountain redoubts and letting the Israelis attack out in the open. It's a bit tragic that they can't help the people in Gaza but time is on their side, the global balance of power is rebalancing, and that's the reason why the Israelis launched their offensive right now, while the Russians are still mired in the Ukraine war and their US patron is still bossing the eastern Mediterranean.
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No, it's decision and not a circumstance. Any substantial missile barrage beyond the current lone rockets lasting over 24 hours would shift public and political opinion in Israel towards activating the Northern front and carrying out a (limited) ground op. It's the perfect bait and Israel would have to take it

But so far Hezbollah doesn't want to go there for reasons unknown. Probably because they fear the fallout of such a war in Lebanon itself, that country is very prone to sectarian violence and there are quite a few anti Hezbollah parties in Lebanon (Joumblatt, Aoun, Hariri family, even some minor Shia factions). In case of Lebanon getting Gaza'd Hezbollah would simply get the blame.

As an aside, Hezbollah and Hamas are hardly brothers. Hamas betrayed Hezbollah/Iran in 2011 by siding with the Muslim Brotherhood linked rebels in Syria. In al Qalamoun and al Qusayr Hezbollah/IRGC noticed that the tunnels they found in the settlements and mountains were exact copies of the blueprints they had handed to Hamas a decade earlier. The anti-Israel stance is what binds them.

Maybe the above plays a role too in Hezbollah's reluctance to dive headfirst no strings attached into an extremely destructive conflict with Israel.

Nasrallah's next speech is tonight at 6PM Beirut time. Promises made..

 
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LaAguilaNegra said:
No, it's decision and not a circumstance. Any substantial missile barrage beyond the current lone rockets lasting over 24 hours would shift public and political opinion in Israel towards activating the Northern front and carrying out a (limited) ground op. It's the perfect bait and Israel would have to take it

But so far Hezbollah doesn't want to go there for reasons unknown. Probably because they fear the fallout of such a war in Lebanon itself, that country is very prone to sectarian violence and there are quite a few anti Hezbollah parties in Lebanon (Joumblatt, Aoun, Hariri family, even some minor Shia factions). In case of Lebanon getting Gaza'd Hezbollah would simply get the blame.

As an aside, Hezbollah and Hamas are hardly brothers. Hamas betrayed Hezbollah/Iran in 2011 by siding with the Muslim Brotherhood linked rebels in Syria. In al Qalamoun and al Qusayr Hezbollah/IRGC noticed that the tunnels they found in the settlements and mountains were exact copies of the blueprints they had handed to Hamas a decade earlier. The anti-Israel stance is what binds them.

Maybe the above plays a role too in Hezbollah's reluctance to dive headfirst no strings attached into an extremely destructive conflict with Israel.

Nasrallah's next speech is tonight at 6PM Beirut time. Promises made..
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The reasons they haven't attacked Israel are not unknown, Israel would turn Lebanon into rubble, or at the very least destroy their infrastructure - water treatment and sewage plants, powerplants, ports, airport, refineries etc, plunging an already struggling Lebanese society into very dire living conditions.

The Lebanese would hold Hezbollah as at least partially responsible for this. If on the other hand Israel invades Lebanon, they would instead be considered once again the defender of that nation by most Lebanese people.

In 5-10 years the local and regional balance of power will shift dramatically. Iran will rise as a major regional power - with a nuclear arsenal, the Gulf countries will be at the very least neutral, increasingly tied economically with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization/BRICS+ and no longer UK/US colonies set up and maintained by the likes of Richard Burton or Kermit Roosevelt. Israel will then be isolated politically and its military supremacy will be counterbalanced.

The leaders of Hezbollah and Iran are aware of this, time is on their side. That's also why Israel is eager to extend the fight to Lebanon later this year, they are in a classic local/regional Thucydides Trap dynamic. Also the reason why Israel let October 7 happen, people like Netanyahu know that they will not get another opportunity later this decade to ethnically cleanse the Palestinians out of Gaza and the West Bank bantustans.
 
Cooper said:
The reasons they haven't attacked Israel are not unknown, Israel would turn Lebanon into rubble, or at the very least destroy their infrastructure - water treatment and sewage plants, powerplants, ports, airport, refineries etc, plunging an already struggling Lebanese society into very dire living conditions.

The Lebanese would hold Hezbollah as at least partially responsible for this. If on the other hand Israel invades Lebanon, they would instead be considered once again the defender of that nation by most Lebanese people.

In 5-10 years the local and regional balance of power will shift dramatically. Iran will rise as a major regional power - with a nuclear arsenal, the Gulf countries will be at the very least neutral, increasingly tied economically with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization/BRICS+ and no longer UK/US colonies set up and maintained by the likes of Richard Burton or Kermit Roosevelt. Israel will then be isolated politically and its military supremacy will be counterbalanced.

The leaders of Hezbollah and Iran are aware of this, time is on their side. That's also why Israel is eager to extend the fight to Lebanon later this year, they are in a classic local/regional Thucydides Trap dynamic. Also the reason why Israel let October 7 happen, people like Netanyahu know that they will not get another opportunity later this decade to ethnically cleanse the Palestinians out of Gaza and the West Bank bantustans.
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Oh, OK. So by giving Israel what it wants and letting it achieve strategic and tactical victories Iran is actually winning because in 5-10 years BRICS. Makes absolutely zero sense. If Iran would be working from a position of strength they'd at least try to maintain the status quo.

FYI, BRICS is a loose trade oriented organisation. People keep talking about it as if it's some sort of of brown NATO equivalent ready to challenge US hegemony. Reality: half the BRICS participants hate each other with a vigor, the other half have cordial relations with the US yet prefer sitting on two fences, and neither Russia nor China operate in bloc - both of them still can't court and maintain alliances, even with states in their periphery.

Your scenario, like all your posts, is highly biased due to personal preferences. The US is not going to leave the MENA and China and Russia can't make it. Period. In addition neither the Saudis nor the Emiratis nor the Indians nor the Israelis nor the Turks nor the Egyptians want the US to leave, so there's that too.

Neither is the future isolation of Israel going to happen. Look a little bit beyond the clickbaity headlines from questionable channels. Aside from being good with the USA (again, sitting on two fences) Israel is one of the main MENA players in the Belt and Road Initiative. And you'd need at least ten sets of hands to count all the cyber-technology projects Israel and China (and Russia) are engaging in. Has any Arab Gulf state cancelled the Abraham Accords bytheway?

The whole 'time is on our side' shtick is a spin to deal with the looming strategic defeat of the Axis of Resistance forces. They have been talking about confronting and defeating Israel for decades and now that the moment supreme is finally here they are choking. The only longterm development that could benefit Iran is the tilting demographic balance in Israel itself - but that's hardly 9D chess ran from Tehran.

Iran still got time to turn this around but not by sticking to the current course and fantasizing about multi-generational 'masterplans' whilst it's carefully build up proxies get either battered or destroyed.
 
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The symbolism couldn't be more in your face.

Either Iran does something about it or the string of terror attacks, HVT assassinations and escalation will just continue & get worse.

Some will try to spin this on a local Sunni Wahabbi offshoot based in Sistan Baluchistan province (Jaish al Adl), who likely provided the suicide bombers. Before the turmoil begins rest assured that these types of organisation are tied to all sorts of three and six letter agencies. No way this ragtag group could pull something this big off themselves.

The current death toll stands at 73 dead and 191 injured.



 
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