The Iran and Wider Middle East Thread
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The U.S. State Department has just posted a security alert for U.S. citizens in the Middle East and North Africa, advising them to exercise increased caution, while adding that travel disruptions and increased security concerns for U.S. citizens in the region have resulted from similar tensions in the past between Israel and Iran.
Security Alert: U.S. Embassy Jerusalem (June 12, 2025)
Location: Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza
Event: Security Alert
Due to the increased regional tensions, U.S. government employees and their family members are restricted from travel outside the greater Tel Aviv (including Herzliya, Netanya, and Even Yehuda), Jerusalem, and Be’er Sheva areas until further notice. Transit between these three areas, including to and from Ben Gurion Airport, is authorized. Transiting Route 1 to and from Allenby Bridge is also permitted.
The U.S. Embassy reminds U.S. citizens of the continued need for caution and increased personal security awareness – including knowing the location of the nearest shelter in the event of a red alert as security incidents, including mortar, rocket, and missile fire, and unmanned aircraft system (UAS) intrusions, often take place without any warning. The security environment is complex and can change quickly.
This is provided for your information as you make your own security plans.
In response to security incidents and without advance notice, the U.S. Embassy may further restrict or prohibit U.S. government employees and their family members from traveling to certain areas of Israel (including the Old City of Jerusalem) and the West Bank.
U.S. citizens can find additional information regarding steps to take in case of mortar and rocket fire and hostile aircraft intrusion in the Country Information for Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza:
Mortar and Rocket Fire or Hostile Aircraft Intrusion: In the event of mortar or rocket fire or Hostile Aircraft Intrusion, a “red alert” siren may be activated. Treat all such alerts as real. Follow the instructions from local authorities and seek shelter immediately. Know the location of your closest shelter or protected space. U.S. government personnel and their family members may be restricted from traveling to areas affected by rocket activity, sirens, and/or the opening of bomb shelters. For additional information on appropriate action to take upon hearing a siren or explosion, see the Israel Defense Forces Home Front Command website (available on devices within Israel) or view the Preparedness Information. U.S. citizens may also wish to download the free Israel Defense Forces Home Front Command application on Android or Apple devices to receive real-time security and safety alerts. Free commercial applications, such as Red Alert: Israel, are also available.
According to a classified Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) advisory obtained via open-source intel:Israel has issued an ultimatum to both the U.S. and Iran: A nuclear deal must be reached by Sunday, or Israel may initiate military action against Iran.The advisory warns:• Diplomatic talks have stalled• Rhetoric and tensions are escalating• Risk of conflict spilling into the maritime domain (Strait of Hormuz, Arabian Sea)• Threats from regional actors like the Houthis increase risk of wider warArea of Concern: Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Northern Arabian SeaThreat Level: ElevatedA short “operational pause” is in effect to allow diplomacy—until Sunday.
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They probably do but it's not going to be anywhere near as easy as dealing with Lebanon.
2020 Beirut explosion - Wikipedia
All sorts of reports of jets, missiles and drones over Iraq airspace. I thought it had to happen to today, 6-12, which would be 6-6+6.
The war already started. Israel is launching preemptive strikes in Iran.
Probably strikes meant to bait the Iranian leadership into retaliation which will then be used to push for an increasingly cooperative US position. Likewise the 6th round of US- Iran talks are still scheduled for Sunday in Muscat, those might not survive today's strikes either.
Either way an Iranian non-response will be the final deathblow for their deterrence, especially after they had Israel roll up their Axis of Resistance project in barely 12 months at a minimum Israeli loss. Kinda like how Tehran quietly shelved Operation True Promise 3 and hoped noone would notice. The Iranians simply have to put their feet in the sand this time, and hope that the Trump Administration has enough clout to convince the Likudniks that war is not anyone's best interest. Also carefully telegraphed billion dollar firework shows like the 2020 Operation Martyr Soleimani and 2024 True Promise 1+2 don't count, this time they'll actually will have to go an eye for an eye.
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Oh no, if civilians were killed, in large numbers, I don't see how Iran doesn't respond.
The ones who call you goyim run your country and will do everything they can to force your family members to fight in this war. We are far from above it or away from it, this is our own serious problem.
Breaking the US-Iran talks, mere hours after Trump commited to continue them, could have been the point of this attack.
SoS Marco Rubio confirming what was clear already, Israel is acting unilaterally. Small chance that it was all a diversionary tactic and the Trump Administration actually greenlit the operation in secret whilst publicly maintaining an image of dedication to sham negotiations, but in the light of the late 18 months that seems farfetched.
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