Entire classes of labor are being eliminated: truck driver, warehouse operators, dock workers, auto factory workers and so forth. Automation is also taking place in rural areas and in farming. China has a rural population of 500 million, about 35% of its population, vs around 20% (and dropping in the US and western countries). So they have a large reservoir of people they can "inject" into the cities to meet demand for labor.
Also, their young people today are far better educated that those from decades ago, and they are the drivers of their economy going forward. Their middle class is still going to be growing while their total population decreases, whereas in the West the populations already are educated middle class. Also retirement ages are very low in China, 55 for women and 60 for men, they can raise those to dampen the decease in their active population.
This is a good rundown as to why demographics are not the same problem in China as in say, Germany or S Korea.
Interesting video. I agree with first salvo that people like Peter Zeihan suggesting imminent collapse any day now is insane. That dude has posted total bullshit about shipping and trade and even microchips so one needs HUGE skepticism with those who suggest China is in that for short term or even immediate collapse.Re: Population;
I was in the middle of posting that video but Cooper beat me to it.
To add their TPR challenge is not as bad as other nations. Several reasons -
- Large Absolute Number of Youth. ~700m under 40, so they get around 15-20 years of buffer to restructure their economy or resolve the TPR challenge before their workforce shrinkage becomes severe. Their higher education system is starting to overcome the West as well.
- Fiscal Burden of Elderly is 1/5 of those in the US and the medical costs are a fraction. So that aspect is out.
- Their Automation Industry is seriously really good so I believe it when it can be used to relief manual workforce challenges Cooper mentioned. I live in Hong Kong so I see it with my own eyes when I visit Shenzhen and the wider GBA area in the past 2 years.
They are absolutely in a better position than Europe or Japan so I do agree there.
That said, they'll take significant time to transition to any position where they'll some how be ready to storm the beaches of Martha's Vineyard. That is my overarching point...which is why I'm not concerned with them coming to genocide the West.... We do it to ourselves already.