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It is Israel that is pushing the hardest for a strong response.
In fact they have been trying to lure the US into open conflict with Iran for over a decade.
Situation in the Red Sea (Houthi Thread)
- Thread starter LaAguilaNegra
- Start date
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It is Israel that is pushing the hardest for a strong response.
In fact they have been trying to lure the US into open conflict with Iran for over a decade.
They underestimate the boomer's resolve to exhaust every drop of his blood for the jew. As well as every drop of his children and children's children. They commit their entire line to die for their worldly jewish masters just so they can enjoy a material life, void of spiritual and faithful meaning. Those capitol cronies and old pensioners are going to have to get used to living with permanent frowns for their sado-masochistic feelings for their beloved jewtopia, but they will muster every ounce of strength they can gather to fight to support this jew war.
I pray that these Mohammedans plan their strategies very carefully when incorporating the military of the destructive golem of the west. It could easily go far south for everyone, and a huge ramp-up of the double-sided betrayal, the war and massacres on their front, and the importation of their garbage leading to more deaths on our fronts.
"Knock it off" as in order Israel to stop its genocide in Gaza, which would render this whole thread moot.
I am not convinced. Reagan gave diplomatic cover for the Sabra and Shatila Massacre in 1982. George W. Bush was either complicit in or fell for the geopolitical 9/11 scam - followed by the roll out of the 1997 PNAC blueprint coauthored by Krauthammer, Kristol, Kagan, Wolfowitz and the rest of the ((click)). Obongo oversaw the Muslim Brotherhood/ Arab Spring revolutions, and had his intel agencies neck deep in the 2013 Ghouta false flag.
Everything before that needs to be seen in the light of the USSR-US rivalry - meaning that both the US-Israel relation and the Israel-Arab power dynamic were more balanced. Nixon was labeled an 'anti-semite' but saved Israel during the Yom Kippur War by creating an air bridge (even though the entire thing was a set up by Golda Meir as the Israelis had intel on the surprise attack long in advance). Nixon was also the President that fell for one of the biggest Zionist scams of the century, Kissinger's masterpiece of building up China at the expense of the US.
The last US president that was still independent vis a vis Israel was JFK - but that didn't end well. Before that there were Presidents like Eisenhower, who in the 1956 Suez War ordered the Israeli (and British+French) to get back in their corner and shut the hell up. Maybe Carter belongs in that list too, as he forced Israel to sign the Camp David Accords+handover the Sinai to Egypt, although he did greenlight the 1978 Israel invasion of Lebanon. But truth be told he only became much more critical of Israel after his Presidency.
The Biden Administration, as flawed as it is, does not deserve a lot of blame imo. They have consistently tried to keep the conflict contained to Gaza, with rumours of building pressure on Israel to wrap up the op on Gaza on top of that. It is a stretch, but it could even be that the US' current non-action in the Red Sea is a signal to Israel that they are not prepared to do the dirty work for them.
EDIT: @mods, is there some sort of software that is rewriting certain terms and words ? I mentioned Nixon as an ant1-sem1te but when I press 'send' it shows as 'countersemite'
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Why would China even care about the situation in the middle east as far as hydrocarbons go? Ever since the Ukrainian war, China has been Russia's #1 recipient of cheap oil and gas ever since. At worst, shutting off Saud oil would merely drive up the cost of oil of China, perhaps sending them into a recession - that's it. Hardly the end of China, they'd get more than enough to survive from Russia.
It's the EU and Israel who lose hardest if the Red Sea is unsafe.
It's the EU and Israel who lose hardest if the Red Sea is unsafe.
They imported more oil from KSA in 2023 than they did in 2022... So while there was an increase from Russia during the period....they very much still relying on KSA as well as the US/Brazil.
Eta: also they get tons of oil from Iran. If the situation with Iran is negatively affected then they become more dependant on their other providers.
You might recall KSA has recently stated they would consider to trade oil in yuan/other currencies.
They aren't relying on anything. They want cheap oil, but they could easily survive just on Russia if need be. They are buying from more distant sources now while it is still cheap and possible to do so, because someday it may not be. The Chinese are prudent and always take the best deal, so that they are buying huge quantities from KSA disproves nothing of what I said China not needing the Middle East.
The only catch is Russia being separated from the EU - if that were to change, China will find itself back in trouble and relying on a fragile supply network, because then there would be no cheap Russian oil fallback option. If EU could bid on Russian energy again, then China is forced to compete with EU and pay much more. If they were to lose access to the KSA on top of that, then China would probably enter a massive depression and be forced to ration their oil reserves. But right now? Losing KSA would hurt but nothing critical.
Half of China's oil imports and a third of its total oil usage are from the Persian Gulf and pass through the Strait of Hormuz. That first number increases to ~70 percent when we're talking about the Strait of Malacca (add Nigeria, Malaysia, Angola etc.)
I am not sure what the discussion is here. The numbers speak for themselves.
Your numbers are old. Russia BLOWS away the Sauds in terms of exports to China.
Ok... But China does not want to solely source from Russia. That would not strengthen their position. They are major stakeholders in consumption obviously.... And they want to continue to buy from Iran (through re-flagging ect) and KSA.
You can see from this article (unless I missed something...) Via Ocean vessels:
Saudi Arabia is the single largest exporter to China, accounting for 15.6% of volumes in Jan-Sep 2023. In Jan-Sep 2023, China imported 59.8 mln tonnes of crude oil from Saudi Arabia, up +5.1% y-o-y
I am not sure if all the other exporters can meet capacity at a rate favorable to China. I would have to do more anyways... But they do still largely rely on KSA...who is really the head of OPEC and defacto sets the policy here.
I said the Persian Gulf, which includes oil producing states like Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, the UAE and BahreinYour numbers are old. Russia BLOWS away the Sauds in terms of exports to China.
Look again specifically to ocean exports.Your numbers are old. Russia BLOWS away the Sauds in terms of exports to China.
Large amounts of Russia Crude to China is his pipeline and not ocean tanker.
I believe the final number was 5.5 percent increase. See the Hellenic times article I posted... Which was specific to ocean vs the EIA.gov.
Correct. The Chinese are not at all interested in becoming solely dependant on Russia. It would turn the entire Russia-China relationship on its head with China suddenly in the junior position.
Not that Russia can fully replace the entire oil producing Middle East anyway
They are not. And India is Russian importer numero Uno.... Which is not good for China.
Yes, not ideal, but totally survivable. Which brings us back to my main point - it's the EU and Israel who lose the most with the red sea situation, everyone else is fine more or less.
Ocean exports won't capture the huge amount of oil transferred to China from Russia by pipeline and rail line. It's a misleading stat.
Samseau is right, Russia would prioritize China for its oil exports in case there was a major crisis in the Hormuz Straight. They've been exporting to ungrateful nations like Poland, S Korea (which has been the main supplier of shells to Ukraine the past 12 months!), Holland (F-16s incoming), Italy (NATO shill Meloni), and India, which has been abusing its position as a buyer by getting discounts on Russian oil prices.
So Russia can cover around 4 million barrels/day for China, or conceivably more if they have spare capacity, while other nations like Angola or Venezuela could cover the balance.
So Russia can cover around 4 million barrels/day for China, or conceivably more if they have spare capacity, while other nations like Angola or Venezuela could cover the balance.
For the short run yes. For the long run, it depends on what happens with escalation and time frame.
That's what was in the eia.gov article- total exports not purely ocean. That includes pipeline.
Forgive me... But it's kinda naive to suggest China isn't heavily interested in the Straight of Hormuz / Gate of Tears stability. Also all the goods that go through the Suez to the US from China are also another reason why this is in their area of concern.
Why? Because you say do? Russia also wants to exert leverage over China.
Yes but not at an economically viable price point for China... especially when India can make demands for it also.
China can and will buy from the US also should we have favorable administrative policies.
Europe is still paying bigly for Russian Oil...through offset means via dark fleet.
The issue with Venezuela is that it's in South America... Which is US naval territory and easier to interdict.
China is geographic hamstrung here in a lot of ways and will take all comers.
This is not about the Red Sea but about the Strait of Hormuz. Also getting cut off from one third of your oil imports on a dime's notice is not 'being fine'.
Also there isn't 'a huge amount to oil transferred to China by pipeline'. We are talking rudimentary facts here. The Russian-Chinese pipeline infrastructure is lacking due to Russian previous long term commitment to Europe in terms of building energy dependancy.
There is currently one oil pipeline between Russia and China and that's the ESPO. It's maximum capacity is about 700 000 barrels a day. China imports about 11.4 million barrels a day.
It's absolute about leverage. To illustrate that I attached some articles on China's differentiation/bargaining policy vis a vis Russia. Not everything in this world is either black or white.
The new Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline currently in the works is being delayed by the Chinese as part of their negotiation tactics.
China prioritizes gas deals in Central Asia over Russia (as to diminish too much dependancy on one single seller/source)
Some forget that pipelines like the Power of Siberia 2 (recently announced) is nat gas and not crude oil and is still not operational.
There's a lot of future growth there for sure...but majority will be Natural gas via the power of Siberia 1 and 2 pipelines...
at least thats what I'm seeing...which is part of the strengthening of china-russia Post Ukraine...
Take what you want out of Reuters...but there's some validity to their assertion for sure. Mutual dependence is a bit of a lose lose for both. And I'm sure China doesn't want Russia and India being so close.
There's a lot of future growth there for sure...but majority will be Natural gas via the power of Siberia 1 and 2 pipelines...
at least thats what I'm seeing...which is part of the strengthening of china-russia Post Ukraine...
Take what you want out of Reuters...but there's some validity to their assertion for sure. Mutual dependence is a bit of a lose lose for both. And I'm sure China doesn't want Russia and India being so close.
Was literally attaching that Reuters article.