It is obvious that in the current circumstances ships would intentionally misrepresent their final destination if they were on their way to Israel.
Situation in the Red Sea (Houthi Thread)
- Thread starter LaAguilaNegra
- Start date
It is obvious that in the current circumstances ships would intentionally misrepresent their final destination if they were on their way to Israel.
Yes... But with containerized shipping there's publish schedules and lanes involved due to the rates/contracts ECT.
AIS data can prove schedule or not.
Russia is running multi billion dollar schemes and has entire container fleets to provide their 'sanctioned' oil to so called 'sanctioning' countries.
It took months for the smart people to figure this out and months on top of that to make it to the public.
A bit of paperwork is just that. Especially when Israel is involved, as fraud is a national sport there and that country's intel agencies are so deep in all sorts of shenanigans that this is simply small ball.
I hear you but I have no reason to believe what the Houthis are saying over the Shipping lines. The dark fleet with Russia has been going on since day 1 of the sanctions and something I've known about.
I also know not to trust the official narrative from the DOD as they are changing up information for OPSEC reasons.
That's my point here. And honestly I don't like the Houthis due to last life experiences. I'm fine with droning every single one of them dead and wiping them out. But that's not likely to happen at the moment.
What they are doing is temporarily effective though... I'll give them that.
Pentagon spokesperson Pat Ryder has said that the Operation Prosperity Guardian has grown to 20 members. Greece and Denmark are known additions, the others not.
LOL
@mercogilanos' full text
@johnkonrad's full text
This is by far the craziest story I have reported on in the 15 years I’ve been CEO of @gCaptain
BREAKING NEWS: Confirmation From Dr Sal on the news about @cmacgm and the French Navy I posted to my video this afternoon.
Next rumor to confirm is that @JakeSullivan46’s team at White House has running much of the coalition building directly with minimal Us Navy or MARAD involvement… and it’s a total mess!
Why is it a mess? The maritime interests of the nation were left to atrophy by the Obama administration who put a junior white house staffer and them a navy O5 submarine commander in charge of the important US Maritime Administration @DOTMARAD.
Trump recognized the deficiency and appointed 3 shipowners to his cabinet, put an experienced admiral in charge pf MARAD and opened a maritime desk - heady by a smart and - as @JoshuaSteinman can confirm - put an ambitious USCG officer- inside the national security council.
On day 1 of the Biden administration they closed the NSC maritime desk leaving the white house without any maritime experience. @SecretaryPete was given DOT as a political favor and MARAD was staffed with a long retired Admiral who had a multi-billion dollar climate change agenda.
This is not a political tweet - much of what the Trump administration tried to accomplish in the Maritime domain failed in the last year or was overturned by entrenched civil servants - but they did have an abundance of Maritime and Navy experts at the highest levels and had a few home runs like the revitalization of Philly shipyard, and the building brand new college training ships.
Biden has no maritime expertise on staff. Furthermore Biden put an army general as secretary defense, and has done a little to nothing to support the US Navy.
tl;dr there is an extreme lack of maritme and naval expertise within this administration.
The result is that the cornerstone of Naval strength - which is not our carrier groups, it is the strength of our allied coalitions - has fallen apart over the course of just a couple of days.
Out of our naval allies, only ten signed up for Operation Prosperity Guardian. Two of those refused to comit any hard assets. Two had few assets to supply. And one - France - stormed out of the first operational meeting in disgust and quit the group to go protect its own ships.
And now the most important waterway of global maritime commerce is blocked to all but French owned ships (they will open it up to EU ships shortly), US flagged ships withsailors aboard sit without protection in the Red Sea, and thousands of ships are going around the Cape of Good Hope emitting untold amount of carbon which the Biden administration claims is a priority.
This is an EPIC failure and a completely avoidable one. The White House has no shipping or naval expertise and should not have taken charge of this operation.
This operation should have been handed off to @SECNAV with close assistance by @SecretaryPete.
I have very little faith in secretary Pete’s Maritime knowledge, but the secretary of the Navy - Carlos del Toro - has done an excellent job in the last few months . He is the one who needs to run point here without interference from @SecDef and @POTUS
A tanker in the Indian Ocean has been hit by a suicide drone. The subsequent fire has been extinguished.
It's clear as day Iran is orchestrating this - now basically threatening to close a second major waterway (Strait of Hormuz). The US has no other option than to strike - at a minumum targeting Ansarallah. Its deterrence and global standing depend on it.
It's clear as day Iran is orchestrating this - now basically threatening to close a second major waterway (Strait of Hormuz). The US has no other option than to strike - at a minumum targeting Ansarallah. Its deterrence and global standing depend on it.
Iran, with their new allies of Russia and China, can sense how weak the USA is. All these attacks and still we have done nothing. They attack our bases, they attack ships, we do nothing. I'm glad we are doing nothing; we can't afford another war. But Iran can sense blood in the water.
We can fly our jets over and drop bombs, but it appears this doesn't do much good and the cost is pretty high. It also takes the risk that they shoot another multi-million-dollar drone or jet down and have yet another trophy.
The great satan, the Israel alliance, is crumbling from within, due to living a life of sin. Sin is so rampant in the west, almost no one goes unaffected in drastic ways. And due to this, the men will rightfully not fight for this disgusting country.
We can fly our jets over and drop bombs, but it appears this doesn't do much good and the cost is pretty high. It also takes the risk that they shoot another multi-million-dollar drone or jet down and have yet another trophy.
The great satan, the Israel alliance, is crumbling from within, due to living a life of sin. Sin is so rampant in the west, almost no one goes unaffected in drastic ways. And due to this, the men will rightfully not fight for this disgusting country.
The problem with attacking Yemen is that they could lay waste on Saudi refineries and create a 1973-like oil crisis, which would throw Europe and N. America into a major recession. Refineries are a very easy targets, large structures with completely exposed pipes all over that will blow up in a giant fireball with a couple of small hits.
$200-$400 oil would not be good in an election year for Biden and co. It would also turn Russia, Iran and Venezuela into kingmakers, countries like Japan or Germany would have to beg them for oil. The US doesn't have spare capacity for exports, it barely meets its own needs, and wouldn't be crippled like say Japan or Germany, but $6-$8 per gallon gas would definitely hurt the economy.
The US-led coalition of the willing is looking very shaky right now, to say the least.
$200-$400 oil would not be good in an election year for Biden and co. It would also turn Russia, Iran and Venezuela into kingmakers, countries like Japan or Germany would have to beg them for oil. The US doesn't have spare capacity for exports, it barely meets its own needs, and wouldn't be crippled like say Japan or Germany, but $6-$8 per gallon gas would definitely hurt the economy.
The US-led coalition of the willing is looking very shaky right now, to say the least.
I don't understand the constant fixation on China. The current rather rapid escalation is the complete bankruptcy of China's MENA policy - an approach that was centered around creating a lasting peace in the Middle East and reached its apex in the 2022 Iran-Saudi detente (of which a peace deal in Yemen was a part).
China is cursed in terms of geolocation. It is boxed in from all sides with only Russia as a somewhat favorable actor on its Northern borders. China is equally cursed in terms of resources, and there are many similarities with equally resource poor Japan and Germany's 1930-1940s situation. China is a resource starved 1.4 billion strong nation that imports most of its hydrocarbons from thousand of miles away - passing them through 3 major trade corridors (ie choke points) that are controlled by a Navy that is not their own. Nightmare stuff. Those energy corridors can be shut down by non linear proxy warfare on a dime's notice - which is happening right now albeit still in the beginning stages.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, China is all about hydrocarbons. That's all it cares about. It's entire foreign policy is shaped around mercantilist notions and creating the geopolitical circumstances where there is a safe, secured and stable flow of hydrocarbons to the Mainland. That's all China cares about. By extension, China doesn't give a damn about Palestinians, it doesn't give a damn about Israel either. It doesn't give a damn about Shias or Sunnis. It's doesn't give a damn about territorial disputes anywhere beyond settling them (for their own good), etc. Any ideological motives glued on Chinese actions/positions is all projection by the Western analytical class.
Per comparison, China spends 50 000 barrels of oil to transport 80 000 barrels to its Mainland. That's as lopsided a return on energy as I've ever seen one.
Their lack of resources and the vulnerability of said trade corridors is why China engineered the BRI (which is also a surplus dollar dump op) to lessen dependency on those waterways by building up trade and infrastructural network spanning much of Eurasia and beyond. Coupled with attempts to pacify the MENA flashpoint, ie creating the geopolitical circumstances where that lifeline could at least be a little bit more secured by shenanigans from crazy religious fanatics in the Middle East - whether they be on a payroll or not.
Obviously the Saudi-Iran deal was fragile as can be from the beginning. The Chinese have absolutely no power projection in the Middle East and especially MBS has an agenda of himself - seeking to play the US and China off against one another. Saudi participation was also a jab against the Biden Administration who hate MBS' guts and are still holding the Khashoggi Incident against him. The 2019 US withdrawal from Yemen doesnt sit well either in Riyaad. My prediction: as soon as/ if Trump or another Zio hardliners enters the White House the Saudis will drop the pretenses and jump straight back onto US train.
The only situation where the Chinese would actually be willing to throw a kitchen sink is when their own domestic economy is in such bad shape that it needs a major reset. Many big wars are and have been cover ups for illicit banking policies/government practices anyway. But that's a gigantic role of the dice and would involve Taiwan/the SCS and not involvement in Iran's proxy warfare. It is also not in line with the (cooked?) economic data coming out of the country. But that scenario is so out of line with their conflict averse nature/ policymaking track record and such a gigantic role of the dice that it reads like fiction.
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The Saudis like many other developing world countries now view the US as a setting power. The younger generation of Saudis travel and do business in China, they see the difference between cities like Shenzen, Shanghai or Beijing and western cities like London, Paris or NYC which are in social and physical decline. China has become their main trading partner, by far, and the gap will widen as China fills new niches like autos or passenger jets. As well, there is a long history of trade between east and west Asia that goes back to the Middle Ages, which is being revived. Saudi Arabia has made the teaching of Mandarin mandatory in their school system.
Going forward, China is the world's largest importer of oil, and the largest exporter of manufactured goods by a wide margin.
China will first come into the Middle East through trade, investments and currency moves. Down the road, you might see more direct military involvement of China (and Russia) in the region, starting with weapon purchases. The transition won't be instantaneous, but it will take place this decade. At some point down the road, China will start asserting itself on the global monetary scene by pegging its currency to gold and revealing the extent of its gold reserves, which might be greater than 30,000T, 5 to 10 times larger than US gold reserves, which are claimed to be around 8,000T but have never been audited.
Only if they carry over their oil from Arabia by rickshaw... the cost of shipping oil via tankers from the Persian Gulf to Hong Kong is around $4/barrel, you're off by a factor of 10 here.
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The Saudis like many other developing world countries now view the US as a setting power. The younger generation of Saudis travel and do business in China, they see the difference between cities like Shenzen, Shanghai or Beijing and western cities like London, Paris or NYC which are in social and physical decline. China has become their main trading partner, by far, and the gap will widen as China fills new niches like autos or passenger jets. As well, there is a long history of trade between east and west Asia that goes back to the Middle Ages, which is being revived.
Going forward, China is the world's largest importer of oil, and the largest exporter of manufactured goods by a wide margin.
China will first come into the Middle East through trade, investments and currency moves. Down the road, you might see more direct military involvement of China (and Russia) in the region, starting with weapon purchases. The transition won't be instantaneous, but it will take place this decade.
Young Saudis look to China? It's obvious you've never been there yourself. That place has become so Westernized at such a rapid pace it makes even Poland blush. It's all about European football stars, getto rap music and living la vida bella in Switzerland, Miami and London these days.
As for the rest of your eerily recognizable (LOL) post, how does that refute what I just said? The Saudis like to play one of the other but have no interest in moving into Chinese orbit (as if China has one anyway). As for the Chinese themselves, they can start with actually contending US maritime power around the 9 dash line, and after that the second and third lines of defence. By the time they're done with that they might start dreaming about a takeover of the Middle East - with the disclaimer that you need a Blue Navy for that which the PLAN most definitely is not.
The US imports a meagre 14 percent of its total goods and services, and is largely food and energy independent - now compare that to China. Fighting wars as a borderline autarky is much easier than when you are heavily dependent on maritime trade routes to keep even basic economic activity at a substinence level. Of course this works vice versa as well: places like Afghanistan and Yemen are de facto cut off from the global economy hence subjugating them is no easy feat.
The scenario laid out by you could happen but is not likely. Not because Ansarallah doesn't have the capacities to strike oil facilities and desalination plants (zero lakes or rivers in Saudi Arabia, 20 percent of their energy expenditure goes to desalination), but because such an act will get reciprocated. Iran's got oil facilities themselves too. Too much to lose. It could happen but an all out war on the Saudi oil and gas infrastructure is unlikely. Out of line with Iran's strategic objectives and modus operandi too.
As for kingmakers, the US Navy controls all major trade corridors. Obviously any type of proxy and/or linear warfare would be reciprocated. Not a single drop of Iranian oil would leave their ports.
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Due to sanctions on Russia demand for super tankers has tighened quite a bit. Renting an oil tanker now costs north of 100 000 USD per day - fuel and insurance rates not included.
The number I mentioned earlier is indeed off, it's currently about 15 USD a barrel The four dollar per barrel rate mentioned by you refers to pipelines.
Here's a data point on tanker shipping: it costs Russia $7/barrel to deliver its Ural oil to India. The path from the Gulf to China is shorter. Russia charges India more for shipping costs, around $11-$15 because that makes its oil price net shipping lower on paper, and India looks better in terms of abiding by western sanctions on Russia.
As to Yemen, I don't think their policy is run out from Teheran, they are allies but don't take their orders from there. These are hardened warrior types who are primarily driven by ideology and are genuinely concerned with what's happening in Gaza, enough so to take on the US Navy. A missile salvo from Yemen on Saudi facilities would not necessarily entail Iran getting hit by Saudi, because Iran in turn has a huge arsenal of missiles that dwarfs Yemen's, and dissuades not just the Saudi but also the US from hitting them.
As to Yemen, I don't think their policy is run out from Teheran, they are allies but don't take their orders from there. These are hardened warrior types who are primarily driven by ideology and are genuinely concerned with what's happening in Gaza, enough so to take on the US Navy. A missile salvo from Yemen on Saudi facilities would not necessarily entail Iran getting hit by Saudi, because Iran in turn has a huge arsenal of missiles that dwarfs Yemen's, and dissuades not just the Saudi but also the US from hitting them.
That has to be outdated information. Shipping rates and oil prices have gone up significantly since the Ukraine War and the former went up significantly again since October 7. Transport costs that low would make the entire pipeline construction economically redundant, which it is not.
Also in this conflict Ansarallah is 100 percent a Iranian tool. In fact any targeting of tankers has to be done in accordance with Iran, because Ansarallah itself doesn't have the radar systems, intel and intel processing capacity necessary to target tankers. Same goes for the weaponry used - that's all either Iranian made or Iranian designs locally produced under Iranian guidance. 8 years ago Ansarallah was still a ragtag group, now it has significant missile and drone capacity. They didn't develop that themselves.
I do agree with your statement on Ansarallah's general independency though, just not in this conflict. The Ansarallah struggle began decades ago already and at that point there was no Iranian influence at all. That point gets excarbated by the doctrinal difference. The Yemeni Highlanders are Zaydi Shia (Fivers), and the Iranian theological establishment are Twelver Shias. I could be wrong but I don't think those two are 'in communion'.
This is a big difference from Hezbollah (also Twelvers) whose leadership is totally on one line with Teheran.
On the topic of China and the Red Sea, their Chinese ships has been able to pass through the Red Sea unmolested.
This is exactly what I've heard about why Coalition members are dropping out - absolute failure of leadership from the United States at the executive level. Between the diversity hire first female Chief of Naval Ops and the diversity hire SECDEF, no one is taking any sort of kinetic action.
This is especially embarrassing given that we not only over absolute overmatch of surface combatants in the area, but we already have an existing command structure HQ'd in Djibouti and a DESRON in the area for years doing this stuff. Remember that whole pirate wave ten years or so ago? We squashed that in quick order. We can't figure this out, though.
Again, the problem doesn't lie with the fleet and ship commanders themselves; they take orders from Washington. And we can't do anything.
A little French frigate is leading the charge.
Unreal.