Situation in the Red Sea (Houthi Thread)

BP and Evergreen have today also suspended shipping through the Red Sea. In the last week four out of the world’s 5 largest shipping companies (CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, Maersk and MSc) also suspended shipping in the Red Sea.

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Austin will travel to the Middle East in the next few days to get more states to join the Operation Guardian of Prosperity. Big question marks are the Arab states (Egypt, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, etc) because Ansarallah has already promised that in that scenario it would target their oil and gas infrastructure.

Another two ships were targeted.





 
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Multiple USCG ships in the theatre also.

Provided the above is accurate looks like a multinational effort here.


Blinken has indeed invited China to join the maritime operation in the Red Sea, but the Chinese allegedly declined. Which is ironic and in line with the 'policeman of the world' narrative, because looking from a purely economic viewpoint the US doesn't have that much to lose - leaving aspects like status, awe and deterrence out of the framework. China (and countries like Egypt) on the other hand has, and these types of maritime blockades are an absolute nightmare for Chinese policymakers.

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What the Chinese will do is try to push and pull Iran to have Ansarallah back down, at least partially. This too won't work. Chinese leverage over Iran is imo much exaggerated. The Chinese do business and that's about it. That has been the core tenet of Chinese foreign policy for decades - they pride themselves on being non-intrusional, mercantilist and lacking political agendas. All fine and dandy in peacetime but when one of your main maritime arteries gets blocked by a belligerent dependance of what's supposed to be a friendly state those principles turn stale within minutes.
 
BP and Evergreen have today also suspended shipping through the Red Sea. In the last week four out of the world’s 5 largest shipping companies (CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, Maersk and MSc) also suspended shipping in the Red Sea.

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The number of companies suspending their shipping operations in the Red Sea is growing with every hour.
Add to the list:
Yang Ming Marine Transport (Taiwan), HMM (South Korea), CMB - Compagnie Maritime Belge - and Euronav (Belgium), Frontline, Equinor (Norway).
Other companies may join the list in the coming hours/days. This is a concentrated effort to force policy change in the US.
 
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Multiple USCG ships in the theatre also.

Provided the above is accurate looks like a multinational effort here.

How many of those ships are new to the area, and how many have been operating there for a while as part of already existing structures? I'm guessing that multinational (India, Japan, Spain, France) group in the Gulf of Aden is the Combined Task Force 153, which was supposed to combat piracy and provide maritime security in, and around, the Red Sea.
Israeli navy in the Gulf of Aqaba and the Chinese group in the Gulf of Aden won't lift a finger to help.
The HMS Diamond and FS Languedoc joined our destroyers in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait area not so long ago, so they're most likely to take part in whatever operations we launch.
USS Bataan and USS Carter Hall, and a marine expeditionary unit, are in the Red Sea for 2 months already, waiting for who knows what.
USS Eisenhower strike group is the most serious element in the area, and now it looks like they will not move up to the Mediterranean to relieve the USS Ford.
The rest of the ships, including the USCG, are most likely on their routine missions.
The biggest question is: what force the locals (Egypt, Saudi, UAE) are willing to commit ?
 
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The start of Operation Prosperity Guardian was announced about an hour ago. Aside from the US the UK, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, France, Canada, Norway, Bahrain and the Seychelles will participate.

In the comment section this comment was made 'KSA and UAE are participating through Bahrain and Seychelles respectively. This allows KSA and UAE to be part of this while maintaining plausible deniability.', and that seems about correct.

 
The start of Operation Prosperity Guardian was announced about an hour ago. Aside from the US the UK, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, France, Canada, Norway, Bahrain and the Seychelles will participate.

In the comment section this comment was made 'KSA and UAE are participating through Bahrain and Seychelles respectively. This allows KSA and UAE to be part of this while maintaining plausible deniability.', and that seems about correct.



Participating countries and their contribution.

What member states have announced to contribute or Likely to contribute based on currently deployed assets.

🇳🇱 2x staff officers are currently reviewing as to whether they will send any ships.

🇳🇴10x staff officers, no ships

🇨🇦3x staff officers under Operation Artemis, no ships.

🇬🇧
HMS Diamond (D-34),
HMS Lancaster (F-229),

Likely partaking in OPG
HMS Chiddingfold (M-37)
HMS Middleton (M-34)
HMS Bangor (M-109)
RFA Cardigan Bay (L-3009)

🇮🇹 ITS Virginio Fasan (F-591)

🇫🇷 FS Languedoc (D-653)

🇺🇲 Likely Ships partaking in OPG
USS Stethem (DDG-63)
USS Gravely (DDG-107)
USS Philippine Sea (CG-58)
USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69)
USS Laboon (DDG-58)
USS Carney (DDG-64)
USS Mason (DDG-87)

Possibly supporting OPG
USS Bataan (LHD-5)
USS Carter Hall (LSD-50)
Several USNS ships

🇧🇭 Likely will support with Joint Intelligence Analysis at CMF Bahrain (personal opinion)

🇸🇨 Likely support with Joint Intelligence at CMF-BAHRAIN and or a gun boat. (Personal opinion) haven't seen any statements yet.

🇪🇸 ESPS Victoria (F-82) likely no statements as of yet to confirm'




Spain was named as a participant but isn't without NATO or EU mandate. Germany is still mulling the US proposal.


However, the Spanish government said Tuesday that although it was named by Washington as a participant in the mission, it won't take part in Operation Guardian of Prosperity but will only intervene if NATO or the EU decide to do so, according to El Pais newspaper.

The government spokesperson, Pilar Alegría, said Madrid would not participate "unilaterally" in the U.S.-led operation.

The German defense ministry said it was reviewing whether to dispatch vessels to the region but that no decision had been taken.
 
Malaysia is blocking off access to Strait of Malacca against Israel's largest shipping company.



They're banning all ships that are connected to Israel, not just one company.

Malaysia has banned all Israeli-flagged cargo ships from docking at its ports in what it said was a response to the war in Gaza, accusing Israel of violating international law through the “massacre and brutality against Palestinians”.
On Wednesday, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim announced the decision to impose the maritime ban on Israel-affiliated vessels – singling out ZIM, Israel’s largest shipping firm – amid growing alarm over disruptions to global shipping as a result of attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea.
Ships on their way to Israel will also be barred from loading cargo at any port in the Southeast Asian nation with immediate effect, Anwar said in a statement.

 
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Egyptian media reports that Ansarallah targeted two ships in the Red Sea that allegedly refused to communciate/ turn around. According to this report both ships have been hit.



Bloomberg reports that the US is thinking about expanding Operation Prosperity Guardian and strike Ansarallah targets in Yemen.


Some maps of the current re-routing of container ships rounding Africa. The first map shows re-routed ships in yellow. The second map shows containerships (other vessels not shown)en route to Europe. GBuCVWEaMAAWo90.webpGBykqR9WQAEGOGi.webp
 
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The second post seems to refer to blocking access to the port, but I took the first one to say that Israeli ships would be blockades from passing through the strait. Does anyone know if it is just the port, or both port and strait?
All news outlets report that:

Ships from an Israeli cargo shipping company, as well as those en route to the country or those hoisting the country’s flag, will be restricted from docking at Malaysia’s ports with immediate effect, said Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim.
“The Malaysian government has decided to bar and restrict Zim Integrated Shipping Services, which is a shipping company based in Israel, from docking at any Malaysian port,” he said in a statement on Dec 20.
^
An example from Straitstimes, but You'll find the same message in other outlets. There's no reporting, other than twitter news, on Malaysia closing the strait for Israeli vessels. And since the control over Strait of Malacca is split between Malaysia and Indonesia it would require both countries to close it off.
 
I think that Austin's statement about the Operation Prosperity Guardian was released prematurely, without a comprehensive strategy and before all negotiations were finished - for example, Italy will send the "Virginio Fasan" frigate to the Red Sea, but not as part of the OPG, navalnews.
I believe they were hoping to appease the shipping industry, but if this was the case, then they failed because not only none of the companies changed their decision, but the list of companies rerouting their vessels keeps growing: Wallenius Wilhelmsen shipping - world's largest vehicle carrier - joined the list.
And now, there's also talk about LNG carriers considering avoiding the Red Sea: this is bad news for Europe since, following the Nord Stream bombing, they had to increase LNG imports from Qaţar.
 
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