Situation in the Red Sea (Houthi Thread)

You have to wonder about the risk-benefit calculus here, especially since these tankers are not likely to have the proper insurance coverage to attempt that crossing...
It's not like they're sailing through the Red Sea to poke Houthis for fun, it's a business calculation. On average, Asia-Europe freight takes 30-45 days one way, while sailing the Red Sea-Suez route, add to it time spent at ports, and the round voyage can last around 3 months. Now when a ship sails around Africa it takes another 7-10 days of sailing (one way), plus a few more days to make port in RSA to refuel and the round voyage can take 4 months. This extra month (give or take) spent at sea is completely lost, the ship can only make 3 (or even less) round way trips in a year instead of 4. Major global companies have extra capacity to make up for it, but smaller players don't.
 
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Lobivia - a Singaporean (flagged, owned and operated) container carrier was hit by 2 missiles in the Gulf of Aden.

The attack started a fire on the ship that was put out by the crew. None of the seafarers were hurt and the ship continued to Berbera port, Somalia, for repairs, the Maritime & Port Authority of Singapore said.
The ship is part of Singapore-based Asiatic Lloyd Maritime’s fleet. The Lobivia was involved in a rescue of crew from the 32,200-dwt Rubymar (built 1997) which was badly damaged in an attack in February.
 
A Maersk container ship "Maersk Frankfurt" is burning in the Arabian Sea, off the coast of India. Indian Coast Guard is at the scene.
At the moment there's no evidence, she was attacked by the Houthis.


 
Pumba - a Liberia-flagged, Singapore owned and operated container ship was attacked by drones in the Red Sea. The ship received minor damage and continues to sail.
The first assault involved an Uncrewed Aerial System (UAS) that exploded near the vessel, causing minor damage. Shortly after, an Uncrewed Surface Vessel (USV) also detonated in close proximity, further escalating the situation. Following these incidents, additional UAS sightings were reported by the ship’s master.
 
I expect the Roosevelt to get the same treatment as the Ike, whatever that was. Whatever we call it, the Houthis consider it a success. I think they want more.
Well, it's been 2 weeks and the USS Roosevelt still haven't sailed into the Red Sea. USNI fleet tracker has her in the Persian Gulf.
Routine exercises with local partners, or a show of force to deter Iran ?
 
If the Houthis could hit it in the Red Sea, the Iranians would have no problem sinking it in the Persian Gulf. The Israelis would love to have that kind of escalation, it would mobilize Iran's resources against US bases in the Gulf as opposed to Israel proper.
 
Well, it's been 2 weeks and the USS Roosevelt still haven't sailed into the Red Sea. USNI fleet tracker has her in the Persian Gulf.
Routine exercises with local partners, or a show of force to deter Iran ?
Reading between the lines, it's a tossup between "show of force" and "we need to save face because we really don't want to go into the southern Red Sea."

 
Reading between the lines, it's a tossup between "show of force" and "we need to save face because we really don't want to go into the southern Red Sea."


We could also be moving towards having 2 carrier groups in the region. USS Truman is getting prepped for departure for quite some time now - it's possible they will sail to the Red Sea as reinforcements, and not as replacement. If that's the case, Roosevelt could remain the Persian Gulf.
 
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It's like neither America or Iran want to go to war with each other, but Israel keeps trying to provoke one.
The costs are too high.
We bomb their ports and airfields. They'll attack our bases in the region.
We destroy their energy sector. They'll shut down the Strait of Hormuz.
We target their leadership. They'll activate their sleeper cells in America and all around us.
It would be basically a race to the bottom.
 
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