Lounge of The Russian-Ukrainian War

Thomas More said:
I saw a claim they used a zircon already a couple days ago. If it isn't launched over intercontinental distances, it's not an ICBM.

For all intents and purposes, if it's not carrying a bunch of nuclear MIRV warheads, it's also not an ICBM. It's just a big conventional missile.
Click to expand...
I agree. A lot of these "reports" seem to be propaganda, from both sides. Besides, why waste an ICBM by launching into basically into your neighbor's backyard? It makes no sense.
 
^ From the tweet from @Labienus :

"The RS-26 did not go into serial production because of this ambiguity; at the time, Russia was a signatory to the INF treaty, which prohibited intermediate range missiles."...

"Donald Trump withdrew from the INF treaty in 2019.If the United States had remained in the treaty, this version of the RS-26 would not have been available for use by Russia."

Maybe that's part of the message and timing of this weapon's application. The Russians have hit Dnipro plenty of times before. I don't know if this weapon has a big warhead/capability difference, but the delivery method is unique so far. Maybe it wouldn't have happened without US withdrawal from this treaty (amongst many other such treaty/agreement withdrawals/violations.

It is part of why Putin says the US is "agreement incapable." Such matters have consequences. With this missile, Russia has demonstrated at least delivery system competence and ability to defeat delivery countermeasures in a hostile environment. Who knows what other warheads this thing is capable of carrying and to what true range...

------------------------------

Regarding the "updated nuclear doctrine" of Russia: There's a fair amount of ambiguity and passive verbiage in the stuff I've read of it. Things like "reserves the right" and 'attacks deemed critical." Russia put its nuke forces on high alert after the supposed Kursk/Byransk ATACMS attack and responded with this new delivery method. Nobody knows for sure what it means, other than implied they can put nukes on this thing and deliver at 5000 km range.
 
Last edited:
Thomas More said:
I saw a claim they used a zircon already a couple days ago. If it isn't launched over intercontinental distances, it's not an ICBM.

For all intents and purposes, if it's not carrying a bunch of nuclear MIRV warheads, it's also not an ICBM. It's just a big conventional missile.
Click to expand...
This morning everyone on Twitter is saying that yes this was a mid-range ICBM, which triggered the West's ICBM launch detection network, and the Western powers didn't know at first whether it was a nuke or just conventional. Others say that Russia did warn the West before launching to avoid having them react mistakenly as if it was a nuke.

Either way, this is being seen as the response to the West firing the ATACMS and Storm missiles at Russia. Basically saying if we keep messing with them, next time it might really be a nuke.
 
Thomas More said:
This morning everyone on Twitter is saying that yes this was a mid-range ICBM, which triggered the West's ICBM launch detection network, and the Western powers didn't know at first whether it was a nuke or just conventional. Others say that Russia did warn the West before launching to avoid having them react mistakenly as if it was a nuke.

Either way, this is being seen as the response to the West firing the ATACMS and Storm missiles at Russia. Basically saying if we keep messing with them, next time it might really be a nuke.
Click to expand...

I’m always amazed at people, groups of people, and countries who act this way. They keep escalating and provoking then when the other party strikes back suddenly they claim the other party is the aggressor and they are victims.

Since many systems and people in the US are just chock full of garbage and people bluff all the time, they think this strategy always works, but eventually they mess with the wrong person.

The point of the strike is the old the threat is stronger than the execution. They could easily have used strapped a nuclear warhead to this missile and that’s the message they want to convey.
 
Pointy Elbows said:
"The RS-26 did not go into serial production because of this ambiguity; at the time, Russia was a signatory to the INF treaty, which prohibited intermediate range missiles."...

"Donald Trump withdrew from the INF treaty in 2019.If the United States had remained in the treaty, this version of the RS-26 would not have been available for use by Russia."
Click to expand...

It's a good thing that we withdrew from the INF treaty, because it included only the US and Russia. Other countries, like Iran and China, were free to develop intermediate ballistic missiles while our hands were tied.

Pointy Elbows said:
Maybe that's part of the message and timing of this weapon's application. The Russians have hit Dnipro plenty of times before. I don't know if this weapon has a big warhead/capability difference, but the delivery method is unique so far. Maybe it wouldn't have happened without US withdrawal from this treaty (amongst many other such treaty/agreement withdrawals/violations.
Click to expand...
 



Gc6nM2zXAAAk8UG
 


Straight from the horse's mouth, the first 7:40 is Putin's nationwide address (the rest is filler). Tweets are good, but source materials are better for complex situations.

What I picked up from the full version is that this is a very direct threat, clearly communicated. To paraphrase: If you hit us again in Russia, we will hit a military facility in another nation. We will provide warning, so that civilians can evacuate. There is nothing that you can do to prevent this, the West does not have an anti-missile system that can stop an attack coming in at Mach 10.

Elsewhere, I saw the Russia supposedly warned the US in advance about the missile attack today, to prevent any nuclear misinterpretations.

These are incredibly dangerous times, the time for sane people to de-escalate is right now.
Click to expand...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top