Lounge of The Russian-Ukrainian War

You have no clue what you are talking about and are just reporting propaganda.

Yes if there was a war, and if people all fled, and if they sold their houses, and if there was no demand, and money left the country, prices would go down.

But that's just not the case.

House prices:

Even during the height of the fake war, house prices rose 10% YoY and currently they rise at 17% YoY.
As someone else said, loads of free printed cash flows into the country which is used to buy up properties.

Who are buying these properties? Are the peasants buying? Or some elites loaded in cash? Or some American investment funds?

You are stuck in the dialectical "Ukraine" vs "Russia" dynamic. Just look at the ground, book a ticket, book a hotel.


Book a nice hotel in your "war' area. Read the most recent reviews. How everyone enjoys the peaceful nature. And the luxury.

Hotels are full. (The Western Europeans peasant tourists are still full of fear) The Ukrainians enjoy life with the new free helicopter money.
I don’t know what’s going in Kiev but real estate becoming more expensive is all part of the ZOG globohomo program regardless of intentional or in some parts a byproduct. It has nothing to do with normal people having an influx of disposable income and starting families.
 
I see this trending on twitter, seems to be very popular. Does anyone know if this is legit and real? If so, I think the disgusting west is in for a shock the likes we are not prepared for.


I believe this has been rolled back a little, with official statements that this guy was speaking off the cuff, and ended up straying outside of official policy.

That being said, I think Russia has been radicalized a little more than they were before, and I expect to see actions that bear this out, soon.
 
I see this trending on twitter, seems to be very popular. Does anyone know if this is legit and real? If so, I think the disgusting west is in for a shock the likes we are not prepared for.




That was just Peskov - Putin's spokesman, who in the past was considered to be one of the most prominent Russian "doves".
There was no declaration of war, it's still just a special military operation.
From Rybar:
Statements by the press secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov during an interview with the publication “Arguments and Facts”
Main points:
▪️Russia is at war: it all started as a special operation, but the participation of the West turned it into a war.
▪️Part of Russian territory is de facto occupied by the Kiev regime, new regions need to be liberated and people there safe.
▪️Russia will continue to act so that Ukraine’s military potential cannot threaten the security of its citizens and territory.
▪️Russia cannot allow the existence on its borders of a state that has a documented intention to use any methods to take Crimea away from it, not to mention the territory of new regions.
UPD. Later, Dmitry Peskov clarified that no legal changes have occurred regarding the status of the SVO: de jure it is a special military operation, but de facto it has turned into a war.

Still, this highlights a change among Russian political elites - if a known "liberal" such as Peskov is openly taking about war with the west, just imagine what hardliners might be thinking.
 
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You have no clue what you are talking about and are just reporting propaganda.
Not an argument.
I actually *do* have several years of experience in the field of housing finance in the 2000s. Of course, that's not relevant to the discussion, as experienced people can be wrong just as anyone else, but it is a data point that the irrelevant personal observation you make is wrong, so perhaps some other underlying assumptions are also wrong:
Yes if there was a war, and if people all fled, and if they sold their houses, and if there was no demand, and money left the country, prices would go down.
Perhaps that is the difference. There *IS* a war, and people *DID* flee. If one does not believe that premise, I suppose one could imagine Keev is a beautiful, booming metropolis.

Housing operates under the model of supply and demand. When people demand housing in an area (meaning population levels rise), the supply is essentially fixed in the short term (as it takes years to develop more homes), and therefore prices rise, as the marginal demand for each vacant house is now higher, due to the competing number of buyers all chasing a smaller number of houses. It's essentially "musical chairs" where some will be left out as there is not enough housing for everyone to get one, so the buyers bid up pricing. (Example town of 100 houses experiences a growth of 10 more families. There are 5 houses listed for sale now. Those 10 families bid up prices on the 5 houses, competing with each other).

Conversely, when population levels drop, the demand for housing declines, and prices drop as it is impossible to sell every unit of housing stock and the sellers compete to get whatever money they can so they are not left holding vacant housing stock (For example, in a city with a thousand families, if 100 families leave, you now have 1,000 houses with only 900 families to live in them. The 100 empty homes will be less valuable, as it is impossible to sell them all, so sellers push down their prices to ensure they can sell first. This is why one could buy a house in Detroit for $1, despite the "cost" of said house to be much higher.

TL;DR it is mathematically impossible for housing value to rise in areas with declining populations, (unless one is talking about nominal currency inflation).
As someone else said, loads of free printed cash flows into the country which is used to buy up properties.
Monetary inflation does not equal increase in value. That is like arguing Detroit is experiencing a "housing boom" because we had 30% inflation during the covid lockdowns.

If one is going to argue none of this is true because Ukraine is not at war, the efforts should be focused on proving how this is not a real war, instead of making theories about how every facet of wartime Ukraine is false through some convoluted Rube Goldberg analysis.

Anyway, assuming Ukraine isn't really at war, and it's actually booming and beautiful, what is the point? What is the takeaway? If there is no war in Ukraine, why should we care about the cost of its housing, as compared to the cost of housing, in say, Lithuania? Why would a non-Ukrainian care? It seems this is argument for the sake of being argumentative.

It's like if I believed Donald Trump was really an AI Manchurian candidate, would I go in and spam every post about Donald Trump being fake without ever addressing WHY or HOW he was fake, just pretending for no reason that I just "don't believe" he is real and that he "could" be a robot?

It's just so tiresome.
 
Remember the 9/11 attacks, where immediately, before all the trapped survivors were rescued, or the smoke had cleared, the US announced they had solved the case and Osama Bin Laden did it?

Putin merely gives the facts, and is interested in finding the actual perpetrators, not framing things on the Ukraine, or USA, or any other group, to serve some political purpose:
Putin’s comments fell short of directly blaming Ukraine for the attack, as he said those responsible would be punished, “whoever they may be, whoever may have sent them”. The four suspected gunmen were all foreign citizens, Russia’s interior ministry later said.

Remember how it took years before we saw any proof of anything supporting the government's version of events, and never got to see anything except one Arab man in a stretched out t shirt years later? (And let's not even mention the "oh we killed Bin Laden in the middle of the night and honored his religious wishes by burying him at sea but oops soory there's no photo of him at all, just trust us, we really did get him lol")

Khalid_Shaikh_Mohammed_after_capture.jpg


Here's footage hours after the attacks, of one of the arrested perpetrators. He's also not hidden away in some secret out of country torture cell. He is right in the open, inches away from unarmed witnesses, for the public to see.



Remember how the immediate reaction of W was one of emotion and anger? (I believe the specific words were "I was pissed off")

Let's contrast that with Putin's calm, firm, determined response.


Remember how the narrative quickly turned to "Thay hate are FREEDUMS!" and we got the TSA, warrantless wiretaps, the Patriot Act, Know Your Customer laws, and civil liberties restrictions?

I am truly saddened by the evil perpetrated on the Russian people. But I am proud of their calm, masculine, response. We are seeing how a strong, masculine lead nation addresses crisis and it's a huge contrast to America's last 20 years.
 
Not an argument.
I actually *do* have several years of experience in the field of housing finance in the 2000s. Of course, that's not relevant to the discussion, as experienced people can be wrong just as anyone else, but it is a data point that the irrelevant personal observation you make is wrong, so perhaps some other underlying assumptions are also wrong:

Perhaps that is the difference. There *IS* a war, and people *DID* flee. If one does not believe that premise, I suppose one could imagine Keev is a beautiful, booming metropolis.

Housing operates under the model of supply and demand. When people demand housing in an area (meaning population levels rise), the supply is essentially fixed in the short term (as it takes years to develop more homes), and therefore prices rise, as the marginal demand for each vacant house is now higher, due to the competing number of buyers all chasing a smaller number of houses. It's essentially "musical chairs" where some will be left out as there is not enough housing for everyone to get one, so the buyers bid up pricing. (Example town of 100 houses experiences a growth of 10 more families. There are 5 houses listed for sale now. Those 10 families bid up prices on the 5 houses, competing with each other).

Conversely, when population levels drop, the demand for housing declines, and prices drop as it is impossible to sell every unit of housing stock and the sellers compete to get whatever money they can so they are not left holding vacant housing stock (For example, in a city with a thousand families, if 100 families leave, you now have 1,000 houses with only 900 families to live in them. The 100 empty homes will be less valuable, as it is impossible to sell them all, so sellers push down their prices to ensure they can sell first. This is why one could buy a house in Detroit for $1, despite the "cost" of said house to be much higher.

TL;DR it is mathematically impossible for housing value to rise in areas with declining populations, (unless one is talking about nominal currency inflation).

Monetary inflation does not equal increase in value. That is like arguing Detroit is experiencing a "housing boom" because we had 30% inflation during the covid lockdowns.

If one is going to argue none of this is true because Ukraine is not at war, the efforts should be focused on proving how this is not a real war, instead of making theories about how every facet of wartime Ukraine is false through some convoluted Rube Goldberg analysis.

Anyway, assuming Ukraine isn't really at war, and it's actually booming and beautiful, what is the point? What is the takeaway? If there is no war in Ukraine, why should we care about the cost of its housing, as compared to the cost of housing, in say, Lithuania? Why would a non-Ukrainian care? It seems this is argument for the sake of being argumentative.

It's like if I believed Donald Trump was really an AI Manchurian candidate, would I go in and spam every post about Donald Trump being fake without ever addressing WHY or HOW he was fake, just pretending for no reason that I just "don't believe" he is real and that he "could" be a robot?

It's just so tiresome.
I find this tiresome.

Prices are rising, so according to your logic, demand is outpacing supply. If so many people left then prices would be low. They are not. That's my point. Prices didn't decrease (in dollars or hrivna) they increased.

That indicates it's not that bad as we hear. Check the hotels / check the real estate websites in Ukraine.
 
I find this tiresome.

Prices are rising, so according to your logic, demand is outpacing supply. If so many people left then prices would be low. They are not. That's my point. Prices didn't decrease (in dollars or hrivna) they increased.

That indicates it's not that bad as we hear. Check the hotels / check the real estate websites in Ukraine.

Hold on now Paternos - here is something to consider. Ukraine's PPP has cratered since the war has started.


It is deeply suspect that housing prices are going up anywhere in Ukraine - sounds to me like international forces are speculating on Ukrainian assets, while the population is liquidated. Hence you see housing prices go up while the rest of the country starves to death or is forced into the meatgrinder.

How else can a country be doing well if it's PPP has shit the bed like this?
 
Hold on now Paternos - here is something to consider. Ukraine's PPP has cratered since the war has started.


It is deeply suspect that housing prices are going up anywhere in Ukraine - sounds to me like international forces are speculating on Ukrainian assets, while the population is liquidated. Hence you see housing prices go up while the rest of the country starves to death or is forced into the meatgrinder.

How else can a country be doing well if it's PPP has shit the bed like this?
Cool graphs. Never seen that one.

We see a strong dip in GDP in Ukraine. What is GDP?

GDP is taxable domestic production (what the state knows)
I"m not suprised as all western tourists are skipping Ukraine for now / trade has been halted largely between Russia & Ukraine. The Ukrainian economy is largely a non-tax economy. All logical, Russia was one of the most important trade partners. Houses are not GDP.

So indeed what you see it's interesting, house prices are rising, while production is declining (at least international trade)

When I say fake, I mean the war is fake (no killings) the effects are very real. (e.g. no trade between Russia and Ukraine)

exp-2024-03-25_06_51_56.webp

What is more interesting in this site, is to see how the western productivity is in decline.
And how we are mocking China in the west while it's production power keeps on rising.

Western progress is a mere illusion.
And yes I agree, it's probably a combination of western speculators (as has been announced by Zelensky with Blackrock becoming a large investor) and the elites enriching themselves. And most probably it's not the peasants buying the houses.

But also investors don't like paying too much. Also billionaires.

Where I live we have quite some Ukrainian "refugees" they drive around in big Mercedes cars, seen quite some G class, range rovers.
Most are young university students or rich families.

We DONT see the peasants from Donetsk here. We see cosmopolitans from Kiev and Odesa.

These people didn't sell their houses, they even go back on vacation to Ukraine now. (very similar to the Syrians)

Many here believe the alt-right fear porn with constant war updates. But I see nothing of that.

How else can a country be doing well if it's PPP has shit the bed like this?
Ukraine is not doing well.

The are under constant propaganda attacks. That's abuse. I'm sure many are fearful.

Like in the west who were fearing the "bomb" of "terrorist muslims", it's not real though, it's just narrative, propaganda.

I'm sure quite some people left out of fear. But it's not as portrayed.

It's not people from Donetsk. But English speaking cosmopolitans "fleeing".

It's not the mega numbers here portrayed. Probably in the order of 100.000s.
The country is in turmoil. Economically, they are cut off form Russia their most important trade partners before.

And we see a large influx of money. (when someone buys a house, that's not part of GDP, as it's no production good)
 
When I say fake, I mean the war is fake (no killings) the effects are very real. (e.g. no trade between Russia and Ukraine)

Hey, at least I got you to modify your position somewhat. I'll take the victory lap for that. :LOL:

At some point the slaughter will be undeniable, even for you. My biggest reason to believe this war is real, by the way? Because my Church says so, and my Church is pretty much the only thing I trust.
 
Fake wars, fake massacres, fake terror attacks...

Everything is fake until you meet the families of dead people. Alex Jones learned that the hard way. 9/11 deniers (even the righteous questioners of origin/sponsorship) crush their credibility when they say it was totally fake (no casualties, all a video psyop). Some here won't like it, but that's how I see it.

The young men of Ukraine believe the war is real. Why? Because they've been to friend's funerals. They've lost contact with buddies that were so excited last Spring, pre "mighty counter offensive," after receiving all that fabulous western training and hardware. Some men leave the front line and make it home as deserters - rather go to jail than return to the front. Word gets out.

So Real Estate in Kiev, Odessa, and Lviv is getting more expensive? Imagine that - known havens for the rich and socially protected to mostly avoid the press gangs - having a little boom. All this whilst the country is awash with centralized money pump from an external source (these locales being point of entry for said money pump). Meanwhile, villages and small cities are emptying out. Money at risk flees to safety - and these cities are the safest options in-country.
 
Fake wars, fake massacres, fake terror attacks...

Everything is fake until you meet the families of dead people. Alex Jones learned that the hard way. 9/11 deniers (even the righteous questioners of origin/sponsorship) crush their credibility when they say it was totally fake (no casualties, all a video psyop). Some here won't like it, but that's how I see it.

The young men of Ukraine believe the war is real. Why? Because they've been to friend's funerals. They've lost contact with buddies that were so excited last Spring, pre "mighty counter offensive," after receiving all that fabulous western training and hardware. Some men leave the front line and make it home as deserters - rather go to jail than return to the front. Word gets out.

So Real Estate in Kiev, Odessa, and Lviv is getting more expensive? Imagine that - known havens for the rich and socially protected to mostly avoid the press gangs - having a little boom. All this whilst the country is awash with centralized money pump from an external source (these locales being point of entry for said money pump). Meanwhile, villages and small cities are emptying out. Money at risk flees to safety - and these cities are the safest options in-country.

When someone claims something is fake, that person usually does NOT mean no one died or no one was killed.
It usually means that the official explanations of how and why people died does not make any sense.
 
Continuing the compare and contrast...
Remember how the US imprisoned people for years on hostile enemy land (Cuba) and were too scared to hold a trial because they said what if one of the super evil baddies escaped or someone tried to rescue him from court so we really just need to suspend our Constitution because it's just too risky to follow it any more. We will just pretend the law doesn't always apply. But we still won't be able to do trials, even in Cuba under our new system of fake rules.

Well, Russia just got its first confession, something the US is still struggling to get 23 years after 911.



I suspect the actions of Russia going forward will be calm, measured, and masculine, in response to the feminine cowardly posturing of "color coded alerts," patting down of the elderly at airports, hand wringing about gosh how could we actually do a trial against these baddies, and being fearful of stepping outside of our homes every day.

As for the culpability, many are pointing to the UK, which is probably the single most Russiaphobic country on the planet, and who was likely behind the Nordstream bombing (the US and UK are often used interchangeably because they are highly integrated with each other, and started the Five Eyes program which essentially makes much of their spy apparatus the same).

Russian war correspondent Marat Khayrullin on the British trace in the Crocus City Hall attack, Part 1:


Terrorist attack in Moscow: Tajik trace leads to the British
London took out old skeletons from the closet
The monstrous tragedy at Crocus City Hall has very deep roots and far-reaching consequences. We will return to them many times in the future. But today let's talk about where the attack came from this time. And let’s try to at least approximately trace its genesis and understand the fact that the main enemy is throwing against us if not its last forces, then certainly playing the trump cards that it’s been holding until the end.

Two days after the bloody attack, there is a general opinion in the Russian political and intelligence community that the UK, or rather MI6, is behind the terrorist attack. The modus operandi is just too similar to this organization.

An indisputable fact is that all the largest terrorist attacks in Russia in the post-Soviet period, from Beslan to Dubrovka, had a British trace in one way or another. The terrorist leaders who directed the militants were recruited by MI6. And in some cases (like Basayev and Khattab) they were openly collaborating with MI6.
To counteract this opinion, the UK in its top media threw out an obviously prepared statement: a certain organization Vilayat Khorasan (a branch of the Islamic State operating in Afghanistan) is behind the terrorist attack.

For specialists, such action clearly speaks in favor of the version that in this particular case it is the Englishwoman [the UK — S] who is muddying the waters. Here we must immediately say that the story is not simple, and understanding it from scratch is very difficult, so today we will outline only some of the features.
ISIS, in its heyday, was a collection of tribal gangs united primarily on the basis of funding from the UK. Both the bandit al-Shishani (Batirashvili, a native of Georgia) and his replacement, Khalimov, a Tajik, were direct mercenaries of MI6.

The scope of ISIS's activities as a proxy for the British eventually became so serious that it began to interfere with the U.S. influence in the Middle East and Central Asia, and the UK had to partially curtail the scale of its operations so as not to anger the hegemon. And for a while, all these terrorists in the service of MI6 went into the shadows, some were even declared dead.

They began to resurface again since the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. That’s when that very ISIS from Khorasan appeared on the scene. In reality, a number of Pashtun tribal leaders supported by the British. They are the only ones who agreed to fight the Taliban. This is a key point.

Here we enter the complex geopolitics of Central Asia. Most countries in the region support the Taliban's efforts to pacify Afghanistan, hoping to thereby ensure their security. All, except Tajikistan. Which cannot find a common agreement with the Taliban due to the fact that under their wing there are a number of organizations that are considered terrorist in Tajikistan. It was precisely this split that the UK played on all these years after the Americans left the region, trying with all their might to prevent the establishment of peace in Asia.

To this end, immediately after the U.S. withdrawal, ethnic Tajik Afghans started to be recruited into the Vilayat Khorasan gangs. That is, they began to demonstrate to President Rahmon, who is very sensitive to this issue and considers the Tajiks to be one of the biggest divided nations in the world, that ISIS of Khorasan is sort of friendly [to Tajiks — S]. And that by joining the support of the Taliban he would betray the interests of the Tajiks.

In other words, by pointing a finger at ISIS of Khorasan, which, I emphasize, at the moment practically does not exist as an organization (there is only a certain community of tribal gangs), the UK is openly trying to drag us into Asian kerfuffle. It’s another attempt by the British after Kazakhstan to impose problems in our rear.

But that’s only one part of the game. The second one is no less interesting and more revelatory.
The political base of that very ISIS leader, Khalimov, a Tajik, has always been the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan. It has been declared a terrorist organization in its homeland, and since the early 2000s, guess where its headquarters are located? You guessed right—in London.

Part 2:


On the eve of the flight of the Americans from Afghanistan, the British started fussing over the Tajiks and in 2018 used this party [the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan — S] as the basis to create the National Alliance of Tajikistan in Warsaw, into which they tried to push the remnants of all the Tajik thugs who survived after the defeat of ISIS. The alliance was headed by one Kabirov, who walked hand in hand with Khalimov all his life.

The purpose of creating the new organization was simple: the West was losing the war in Syria, and it was necessary to establish the traffic of militants from Tajikistan. The NAT served as a “single window” where the UK contributed money, and Kabirov and Khalimov were engaged in the export of Tajik “meat.”
Here it must be said that nominally Khalimov has been considered dead since 2017, but there is also a second opinion that he was simply “removed” into the shadows after the Americans became angry with ISIS.

However, what does all this have to do with the events at Crocus City Hall? Patience, dear readers. We're almost there.
In 2022, with the beginning of the Special Military Operation, the so-called Jabhat Al-Shamiya brigade appeared as part of the mercenary corps in the Ukraine. Or rather, one of its detachments operating in the Aleppo region. This detachment is led by a field commander (Tajik by nationality) who is Khalimov’s right hand. All that’s known about him is that his name is Shusha, and he is a history teacher by training.

There is a version that this is one of Khalimov’s many siblings and cousins. I won’t talk now about the combat activites of these Tajik Basmachi in the Ukraine—there is something to talk about there too. Jabhat Al-Shamiya was one of the main recipients of British money allocated through the National Alliance of Tajikistan.

And then (pay attention!), a month after the failure of the Ukrop [Ukrainian — S] counter-offensive (perhaps a little later, at the turn of October and November), Ilya Ponomaryov, the political leader of the new Vlasovites, and Kabirov, the political leader of the Tajik terrorists, met in London. After that, more meetings were detected in Warsaw. This time, at the level of functionaries. There are some interesting details about these meetings, particularly about who was supervising them. But more on that next time.

And now we see a coordinated attack in Belgorod by new Vlasovites, and in Moscow by Tajik militants. I think that the affiliation of the arrested terrorists with the National Alliance of Tajikistan will soon be confirmed one way or another.
Why the NAT specifically? It is known for certain that the recruitment (on the terms of paying for transportation and initial expenses) in Russia is carried out by the National Union of Migrants of Tajikistan, which is part of the alliance and which is also considered an extremist organization in its homeland. And in our country, too.

This very Union ensures the existence of a network of sleeper agents from Tajikistan in Russia. The agents who are primarily in the hands of MI6, because, needless to say, this Union has been created in the 2000s under the direct leadership of the British.

In other words, the UK began to put together a united terrorist front against Russia as soon as it became clear that the counteroffensive had failed and the Ukropia [the Ukraine — S] was doomed. And, moreover, in its traditional manner, it tried to set up or undermine the hegemon. Obviously, the hegemon did not like this, and it tried to warn Moscow. At the same time trying not to hand over its closest ally. Although, to be honest, even in this story it is plain to see that, with such allies, the U.S. doesn’t need any enemies.

But that’s still not all. In our political and intelligence community there is also an opinion that is not as widely discussed, but it exists: the British have demonstrated blatant improvisation [i.e., did something radical without orders from above — S], and now everyone is waiting for a conflict between the allies with bated breath.

And Russia’s first serious reaction to the terrorist attack has already followed (although, perhaps, this is a coincidence): our representative at the UN, Nebenzya, stated that Russia will not recognize Zelenskiy as legitimate after the expiration of his term of office. And since he is nobody in our eyes, it is possible that immediately after Day X, Hitler Zelenskiy will be overtly denationalized. Unless, of course, the British finish him off first.

In anticipation of this glorious event, let’s hope that Budanov (a direct agent of MI6) and Ponomaryov (an even more direct agent) will soon go to God’s judgment. It’s time, it’s time, the devils have clearly been waiting too long for them in hell.
I posted earlier this month that Zelensky will no longer constitutionally be president at the end of March (the constitution only allows 2 postponements to elections in case of war). Interesting to see that last part.

Another theory is Victoria Nuland has some involvement. She made threats earlier this year about some nasty surprises Russia will have coming. One theory is that she was caught planning some type of Bay of Pigs operation that the administration did not approve of, and fired her for it. Another is that she objected to warning Russia (likely of a UK plan or possibly also a different US branch which was discovered) and she was fired.

ISIS is not really a real organization (I mean it sort of became one eventually, it just became a group of "If you don't like the US invaders then wear this uniform and fly this flag) but it essentially just means US / Israel. So whether this was "ISIS" or not is irrelevant. But it is notable that it wasn't just a group of Muslim jihadis, who expect to die a glorious death and become martyrs. These men had plans of escaping to Ukraine.

 
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