It's more like 500,000 dead and 1 million injured. The problem with their recruitment is that (1) a lot of their military aged men have already left the country and (2) they want to keep a force of 100k-200k loyal fanatic troops in the main cities to ensure the population and the rank and file army people don't rise up. They did use up maybe 10%-15% of that force trying to hold on to Avdiivka, sending tens of thousands of Azov types there.
Lounge of The Russian-Ukrainian War
- Thread starter Ember
- Start date
It's more like 500,000 dead and 1 million injured. The problem with their recruitment is that (1) a lot of their military aged men have already left the country and (2) they want to keep a force of 100k-200k loyal fanatic troops in the main cities to ensure the population and the rank and file army people don't rise up. They did use up maybe 10%-15% of that force trying to hold on to Avdiivka, sending tens of thousands of Azov types there.
See, this is where the reasoning falls apart. Why would they abandon their property? They purchased Ukraine for billions, they aren't going to let someone else take it from them.
People underestimate the magnitude of what's happening. Afghanistan is kindergarten compared to the stakes in Ukraine..
Azov are very angry with Zelensky following their disastrous late deployment in Adiivka. They may back the Chocolate King, Poroshenko, in a coup, together with the Klitschko brothers and General Zaluzhny, when the time is right.
They don't have any choice. The war is lost, there is no more money, weapons, and ammo to send there. Russia out-produces the whole of the West, and Western inventories have been catastrophically depleted. There is virtually no anti-air capability left in Ukraine, and Russia now has control of the skies. The conventional war is all but over, and they know it. The new strategy is to shift to a CIA-led covert guerilla war, using terrorism and what Nuland recently called 'nasty surprises'.
On top of that, there are powerful US factions outside the Biden-Sullivan-Nuland camp that see the Ukraine war as a waste of time and resources that is detrimental to the hegemonic cold war with China. As things continue to go South in Ukraine, these people will gain the upper-hand in the US..
Well, I pray I'm wrong, but to address the problems you've described they will completely enslave the populations of USA and EU into the war effort, just like they did in WW2, and people will be begging for their food rations as all production is shifted into making drones and bombs.
Elections will be rigged, the people will be beaten into submission, and the war will continue unless the people rebel. I hate to sound "blackpilled" but I believe the above accurately describes the current group in power and what they are capable of.
The weak spot is the competency crisis. These people are far less competent than their forebears, the middle managers are increasingly raging idiots with non-functioning brains, and the people they're counting on to be the foot soldiers who will work in the production lines and in the trenches are illiterate third worlders.
Despite Russia and China's major, major, corruption issues I don't see any way they can lose if they cooperate effectively.
Certainly our side has a low chance of victory, the problem is since we are talking about billions of people and wars spanning continents, this is going to take many decades to play out at minimum. So sure, we lose, but by the time we lose will there be anything left? This is without counting the risks of nuclear war, the impoverishment will be extreme, similar to how the South was or Germany was after their wars. Likely that many of us will probably pass away before the war is over. Such is the magnitude of the stakes being fought for.
But unlike WW1 or WW2, it won't be all out offensives and blitzkriegs. Just a long point of contact with non-stop drone hunting missions. Each day, both sides take a few dozen casualties. And the war drags on, and on, and on...
You reminded me of this:
"Naked came I out of my mother's womb, and naked shall I return thither: the Lord gave, and the Lord hath taken away; blessed be the name of the Lord."
and this:
"Though he slay me, yet will I trust in him: but I will maintain mine own ways before him."
If things turn out like you think, all we can do is trust God, no matter what.
JR5
Other Christian
Last Week Was a Very Bad Week For Russia
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The source above doesn't seem reliable, he reported that Putin will take Kiev in the next 2 months.
JR5
Other Christian
He's being sarcastic there, making fun of Z-anoners.
^I do believe the Russians lost another one of their rare AWACS type planes. That's a pretty big deal, regardless of who shot it down.
If you read my normie news thread, the Ukrainians are knocking a bunch of Russian planes out of the air daily. Endless predictions of collapsing Russian air power (Forbes, no less, honk).
On a more substantial note, it appears Putin is having another of his "listen closely and tell the western people what I am saying because I am teletyping you all the graveness of the situation" moments:
Likewise, western authorities threatening to liquidate Russian assets to pay Ukraine is another threat that the world will watch with a jaundiced eye. Guess we'll see, but Putin's had enough of his red lines probed in the last 2 years. The man's shown he does have some limit, if often too late for his hawkish supporters.
Also this:
"Stop drinking and keep making babies." Can anyone confirm that translation?
If you read my normie news thread, the Ukrainians are knocking a bunch of Russian planes out of the air daily. Endless predictions of collapsing Russian air power (Forbes, no less, honk).
On a more substantial note, it appears Putin is having another of his "listen closely and tell the western people what I am saying because I am teletyping you all the graveness of the situation" moments:
Likewise, western authorities threatening to liquidate Russian assets to pay Ukraine is another threat that the world will watch with a jaundiced eye. Guess we'll see, but Putin's had enough of his red lines probed in the last 2 years. The man's shown he does have some limit, if often too late for his hawkish supporters.
Also this:
"Stop drinking and keep making babies." Can anyone confirm that translation?
They claim to be shooting down Su 34 planes daily with no evidence. It's pure cope because they are getting absolutely annihilated by Fab 500 and Fab 1500 dropped by Su 34.
Interestingly they haven't claim to have shot down any Su 25, which the Russians have also been using massively. For reference, Su 34 launch these Fab glide bombs from a distance of 50k-70+ kms, making them very hard to shoot down unless the Ukrainians have brought a Patriot system up to the frontline, which is very risky. Ukraine is down to maybe 2 Patriot systems, having received 8 from the West.
Su 25 operate basically over the enemy and are in theory and practice much easier to shoot down.
It's all garbage. Ghost of Kiev 2.0 redux.
Following the fall of Avdeevka, ukrainian propaganda became so obnoxious that even pro-ukrainian channels are getting sick of it.
Ukrainian air defense IRL - just this week.
Ukrainian air defense be like:
Here's another one
This one is salvageable, but even if the ukrainians can secure the wreckage good luck towing it back - western tanks are roughly 20 tonnes heavier than their soviet/Russian counterparts so they require western recovery vehicles. So there's a good chance that once the fighting is over in that area, Russians will take it as a prize and put it on display in the Patriot Park.
Anyway, it seems that Syrsky is throwing everything he can to the outskirts of Avdeevka, trying to contain Russian advances long enough to build a new line of defense, along the Vovcha River, a couple of miles to the west.
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Victoria Nudelman is out!
She is still a few years away from retirement age and not eligible to collect her pension. Her biggest legacy is the overthrow of the elected Ukrainian government in the 2014 Maidan coup and her famous "Fuck the EU" telephone call where she decides who should be installed as the next leader of Ukraine.
Could this be a sign of the end of western support?
On the Retirement of Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland - Anthony Blinken / State Department, Mar 5 2024
She is still a few years away from retirement age and not eligible to collect her pension. Her biggest legacy is the overthrow of the elected Ukrainian government in the 2014 Maidan coup and her famous "Fuck the EU" telephone call where she decides who should be installed as the next leader of Ukraine.
Could this be a sign of the end of western support?
On the Retirement of Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland - Anthony Blinken / State Department, Mar 5 2024
