Iran-Israeli Conflict Thread

Simon, the financial guy, who thought this would just be the hard liners taken out and a pro-west govt. installed due to a backdoor deal, no longer believes this is happening. He sees it both as a true war and doesn't see how the USA can get out of this without at least major economic damage.
It's still far too early to be making pronouncements like this, although it's not too much to say that this situation certainly has the beginnings of a total cluster**** all around. Which was exactly what most of the senior U.S. military command was apparently telling Trump, although their warnings obviously were not heeded. One does not simply drop some bombs on a country and realistically expect to achieve regime change, even if you do manage to kill the acting head of state. If Trump and Netanyahu seriously thought that killing Khamenai and other senior leaders would be enough to initiate some sort of coup or civil war, they were operating under what can only be called a reckless level of delusion.

Hopefully an off-ramp can be found sooner rather than later, because it's for certain that the U.S. cannot afford to be dragged into another Middle-East quagmire.
 
Seeing all the maga cucks supporting this is pretty disheartening, although not surprising. They worship whatever Trump says and treat him like a false idol, just like all the Obama cucks on the left.

Some people still believe in the teams.

Those Charlie Kirk videos where he's talking about Iran are quite interesting to listen to in retrospect.
 
It's still far too early to be making pronouncements like this, although it's not too much to say that this situation certainly has the beginnings of a total cluster**** all around. Which was exactly what most of the senior U.S. military command was apparently telling Trump, although their warnings obviously were not heeded. One does not simply drop some bombs on a country and realistically expect to achieve regime change, even if you do manage to kill the acting head of state. If Trump and Netanyahu seriously thought that killing Khamenai and other senior leaders would be enough to initiate some sort of coup or civil war, they were operating under what can only be called a reckless level of delusion.

Hopefully an off-ramp can be found sooner rather than later, because it's for certain that the U.S. cannot afford to be dragged into another Middle-East quagmire.
Well, the economic damage is already here. Granted, he did say Europe economically will likely suffer, even if it were to end now. If we end up with $100 oil, the US economy, as weak as it is now, will be all bets off. That is what he is saying. That if we don't find a way out and quickly, that the economic situation in the west will be extremely bad.

That, combined with his belief that our leaders were competent and had worked out a deal prior to this, was incorrect.
 
Seeing all the maga cucks supporting this is pretty disheartening, although not surprising. They worship whatever Trump says and treat him like a false idol, just like all the Obama cucks on the left.
At this point it's not just that he's terrible, but that democrat leaders look way better in comparison. He has got me believing that Obama, LGBTQ+, migrants etc. are infinitely better than this current nonsense.
 

Yesterday the Iranians hit the Palau flagged 'Skyline' tanker, which was part of Tehran's own shadow fleet tasked with supplying China. Many of the other targeted tankers weren't tied to what Tehran considers 'aggressor states' either. The first error was a friendly fire incident, the others probably unintended too. That track record in itself shows that the Iranians do not have the intel and/or ability to differentiate between vessels in a crowded maritime corridor.

To be clear: Iran could easily impose a total blockade of the Strait. However, partial blockades are a much different story. Striking a single or multiple vessel(s) within short range is well within the IRGC's capacity, singling out and stroking (fast) moving targets when dozens if not hundreds of vessels/tankers are transiting the Strait is a different matter as proven above. IMO this view is shared by insurance brokers and oil companies, targeting 5 per 100 or 200 is just expensive insurance territory and the oil price isn't moving much.

In addition: Washington would not be able to stop a total blockade, hence why it's Iran's nuclear tier ace card. IRGC's missile and drone units are dug in deep into the Makran coastline, which is mountainous. To crack a total a full blockade you'd need boots on the ground to clear that region out and DC will and should not go there.
 
It's still far too early to be making pronouncements like this, although it's not too much to say that this situation certainly has the beginnings of a total cluster**** all around. Which was exactly what most of the senior U.S. military command was apparently telling Trump, although their warnings obviously were not heeded. One does not simply drop some bombs on a country and realistically expect to achieve regime change, even if you do manage to kill the acting head of state. If Trump and Netanyahu seriously thought that killing Khamenai and other senior leaders would be enough to initiate some sort of coup or civil war, they were operating under what can only be called a reckless level of delusion.

Hopefully an off-ramp can be found sooner rather than later, because it's for certain that the U.S. cannot afford to be dragged into another Middle-East quagmire.
Keep an eye on frequency and quantity of Iran's missile+ drone launches/ salvos. During the 12 Day War these started to diminish in depth and number quite rapidly. I've been looking for numbers and intervals for this bout but so far there's not that much info yet. The US/Israeli main objective - after taking out key military and civil infrastructure, is destroying Iran's ballistic missile/ drone infrastructure and production facilities. That's going to take time hence why facts and statistics on Iran's firing rate are so important.

Also of interest: the USAF/IAF is running a bombing campaign as intense as the 2003 Iraq campaign. Number or sorties and munitions dropped is comparable although it has to be said that the IAF is responsible for over 50 percent of the sorties this time. Like Hegseth said, US can keep up this high intensity grind for weeks if not months if needed, and will likely intensify their operations in the coming days ahead
 
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Keep an eye on frequency and quantity of Iran's missile+ drone launches/ salvos. During the 12 Day War these started to diminish in depth and number quite rapidly. I've been looking for numbers and intervals but so far there's not that much info yet. The US/Israeli main objective - after taking out key military and civil infrastructure, is destroying Iran's ballistic missile/ drone infrastructure and production facilities. That's going to take time hence why facts and statistics on Iran's firing rate are so important.

People here were claiming that Iran was stepping it up during the last days of the 12 day war and deploying their big bois and that's what was causing Israel to cry uncle and now they're trying to repeat the same thing about how it's US/Israel that's going to deplete their own stock first before Iran unleashes whatever secret weapon that they are saving for the right time. It's another example of how people can see things completely differently depending on their online diet. One person can see a building on Israel being on fire and think the entire city is gone but when they see the same thing only in Tehran and it has no effect on their perception of what's going on.
 
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Uprising in Bahran.


Bahrain is the only Shia majority country in the Gulf, and used to be part of Iran centuries ago. It's population is Arab though and the Shia majority complains about repression by the ruling Monarch. Like in many other Gulf States the security forces are heavily drawn from the Indian Subcontinent, especially Pakistani are a favored mercenary class. Iran only gave up its claim on Bahrain in 1970

As for the 'uprising', these types of riots are rather common in Bahrain. The last most serious incident was following the 2011 Arab Spring when heavy Shia Bahrain protests threatened the Sunni Saudi aligned Monarch. Following that upheaval the GCC/ Saudis intervened in Bahrain to quell the protests and that was that, Saudis were never going to allow a pro Iran state on their doorstep hence repeated this with 2015 Yemen intervention. Saudi Arabia intervened in Bahrain in 1994 before that.

Per addendum: volatile and purely sectarian dynamics like the ones in Bahrain, Pakistan and Iraq are also why the assumption that the Gulfies would abandon the US security framework voluntarily are bit far fetched - aside from the hundreds of missiles and drones that is. States like Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and to a lesser extent Qatar and the UAE have large Shia minorities and fear of the Khomeinist boogeyman rearing it's tentacles amongst their native Shia population is alive and well for them.

 
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People here were claiming that Iran was stepping it up during the last days of the 12 day war and deploying their big bois and that's what was causing Israel to cry uncle and now they're trying to repeat the same thing about how it's US/Israel that's going to deplete their own stock first before Iran unleashes whatever secret weapon that they are saving for the right time. It's another example of how people can see things completely differently depending on their online diet. One person can see a building on Israel being on fire and think the entire city is gone but when they see the same thing only in Tehran it has no effect on their perception of what's going on.
Reality is that we don't know the depth of Iran's missile stockpiles and launchpads. It's also not clear whether the Iranians were holding more modern type of missiles in reserve in June. What is clear though is that the USAF/IAF is working around the clock to destroy that missile infrastructure hence my emphasis on statistics and data.
 
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Has it? I don't think it will ever go away. It's been already written to memory.
Yeah, to memory.

Nobody is doing anything.

Not even protesting.

My brother was joking with me that we should go investigate Epstein Island for clues.

Anyone want to join in? I imagine it might be a little dangerous though, especially if we find anything. Though the real issue is avoiding contaminating evidence.

Seeing all the maga cucks supporting this is pretty disheartening, although not surprising. They worship whatever Trump says and treat him like a false idol, just like all the Obama cucks on the left.
I mean, he decapitated an entire government in less than 2 days for the second time in a row, with the first time being barely a month ago.

You have to admit that it's both impressive, and proves that Trump is very different from the establishment that proliferated forever wars to make money for themselves and their friends.

It has also seemingly intimidated both Russia and China by proving the systems they sold to Iran are not effective against the US.

Though, both of those countries are less controlled by Israel than America. Well, to a degree at least. Neither are exactly anti-semitic.

It's an improvement, and people like Thomas Massie proves that Trump has to put genuinely patriotic Americans just to keep his support base.

However, it also feels like the bare minimum.

Trump was being utterly crushed by his own base. This war has actually garnered support for him sheerly based on how effective the US has been. That's changing now that it's being implied this won't be a 2 day war.

I don't think you guys are likely to tolerate a war that lasts 4 weeks. Maybe not even a war that lasts 2 weeks.
At this point it's not just that he's terrible, but that democrat leaders look way better in comparison. He has got me believing that Obama, LGBTQ+, migrants etc. are infinitely better than this current nonsense.
That's factually not true. Hillary wanted a no-fly zone in Syria. The whole reason she lost in 2016 was at least partly because of that.

Trump has seemingly been better than Democrats on all of those things. No more illegal immigrants, but more legal migrants. No overt LGBT, but he's galvanised the left giving them more support and capital to push for it.

He's the bare minimum, which is a big problem, and implies that he's he's being blackmailed and isn't brave enough to defy it.

Remember that stuff about JD Vance being owned by Palantir? Well, there was a video on twitter one of you guys posted of a JD Vance staffer recording him talking to some Jewish guy complaining about Muslim immigrants being anti-semitic and telling him to stuff it, because they brought them here by pushing for infinite immigration.

Nobody on Trumps team is lacking in patriotism, but they all have ties to Jews, and if you ask me, it's hard to discern just how deep the rot goes. Is it all just a ploy to get us to let down our guard so they can make something that will easily control you using surveillance systems and Palantir? Maybe, I don't know. It's unclear.

But this conflict is absolutely a distraction. However, it works both ways.

Now is the time to protest Epstein related matters, do your own investigations and such. Everyone is focused on the war right now. I imagine that will open some opportunities.
Yeah way better like when they overthrew Syria and Libya which had fairly pro Western stability compared to Iran.
Iran however is also openly anti-semitic, openly denies the Holocaust, and is allied with Russia and China who are certainly less influenced by Israel than the US, if still influenced in ways that we might not truly know about.

Yeah, it's the one country in the middle east that's awful enough to both Christians and it's own civilians that we can't morally oppose it being taken down.

Why do you think Israel saved it for last?
 
Larry Johnson, former CIA agent, was just interviewed about it on a Twitter Space. He said..

"Trump should just do what he did with the Houthi's, claim a victory that never happened, and then just pull out".

I think that is the smart move for Trump, but he will not be allowed to do this by Israel.
He decapitated the entire government, then when they elected a second Ayatollah, he killed him too, in 4 hours.

What do you mean a victory that never happened? The only reason Iran is still fighting and even knows where to strike is the data they are getting from China and Russia.

Yeah, it's definitely the smart move to pull out.

But if he does, he has to go back to the Epstein controversy.

If this is a distraction and he didn't seem to like the Epstein documents being exposed, then well, why would he give up the distraction so quickly?

As far as I can tell, he was banking on zero American casualties buying back loyalty from the right over the fact he started yet another war that he planned to last 4 weeks at most.

He's failed in that.
 
Iran however is also openly anti-semitic, openly denies the Holocaust, and is allied with Russia and China who are certainly less influenced by Israel than the US, if still influenced in ways that we might not truly know about.

Yeah, it's the one country in the middle east that's awful enough to both Christians and it's own civilians that we can't morally oppose it being taken down.

Why do you think Israel saved it for last?
I Think you missed my point about the left and globohomo Obama and Ghadaffi and Biden and Assad
 
Yeah, to memory.
Nobody is doing anything.
Not even protesting.
My brother was joking with me that we should go investigate Epstein Island for clues.
Anyone want to join in? I imagine it might be a little dangerous though, especially if we find anything. Though the real issue is avoiding contaminating evidence.
You'd be wasting your time because they poured the tunnels over with concrete. Besides Jeff Berwick already scouted the island and found nothing. :D

Don't be so hasty, this is adding up, time will come and rage will boil over like milk.
 
Iran however is also openly anti-semitic,
It's not. Khomeinism centers around resistance against Political Zionism ergo they deny the legitimacy of the State of Israel to exist. As for Jews, they are protected under the Khomeinist interpretation of Islamic jurisprudence and law. Khomeini has also maintained Jews should not be harmed, and to not equate Judaism with Political Zionism as the latter has hijacked the former. Likewise native pre-1948 Jews are welcome in Palestine and the Jewish minority is free to practice its religion in Iran.

There are over 30 functioning synagogues in Tehran alone, Jews have their representives in Iranian institutions (also mandated by law, like other religious minorities) and the Iranians just love strutting around with the Hassidic Neturei Karta sect - with whom they share strong opposition to the Israeli State. Neturei Karta is full on chosenism and Jewish supremacy for what it's worth.

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