Iran-Israeli Conflict Thread

Mistakes happen but this one looks bad, especially if rumors on 2 or even 3 downed F15s turn out true. Bahrain is a vital hub for projecting US air power and it's likely this/ these airplane(s) came in from sorties over Iran. Allegedly at the time of the landing several Shahed drones were inbound and Kuwaiti or US AD systems engaged the F15 instead.

EW disrupting communications and the friendly ID protocols along with GPS jamming have probably been a factor here.
 
First reports on the targeting of an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian forces. Closing/throttling the Strait of Hormuz is Tehran's ace card and a nuclear tier weapon of its own. It seems they are edging towards making that call.


IRGC officials are once again signalling the Strait of Hormuz is closed for traffic. So far markets have not responded extra-ordinary on any threats and decisions. Oil stands at 82 USD and European gas prices surged by 50 percent after Qatar's decision to close its main LNG facility due to fear of Iranian attacks.





 
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Saudi Officials lamenting being abandoned, Imagine what the other American Proxies are thinking across the globe.


That's not what's happening. Tehran is attempting to 1. manufacture a rift between the GCC and DC and 2. mess up the global economy by blocking the Strait of Hormuz and attacking oil infrastructure around the region. These are nuclear tier ace cards pulled out of Tehran's white hat to shoo Washington into accepting a slightly more beneficial deal and not going the distance - in a conventional shooting war Iran, despite the sensational videos, would lose fast as it is unable to structurally degrade Washington+ Tel Aviv's ability to wage war even though it's own military infrastructure is getting pummeled to the max.

So far that plan isn't working. The GCC countries are contemplating joining the war and Iran's repeated attacks on their civilian infrastructure (which alligned media frames it as CIA operators in hotels rooms etc) have ingrained a solid Gulf belief that Iran must be confronted. Also notice how the GCC countries are functioning as a missile sponge and Israel is not receiving much flak - despite rhetorics on the opposite.

My take is that the closure of the Strait a escalator step above the targeting of GCC states, and is communicated now due to the latter not going the right way. The next calculus will be centered around making the cost of this op so high that it ain't worth the squeeze for not just the GCC states but the whole world instead.

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Report that the US embassy in Amman, Jordan has been evacuated.








Masses of interceptors launched in Kuwait, none of them appear to work properly.





The parliament building has been hit in Tehran.

 
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Speaking of social media slop, Chinese accounts posting about Iranians conquering Tel Aviv, capturing Bibby, etc.



Reminder to be discerning about you are consuming online about the war.

IRGC aligned media is producing truckloads of slopaganda and red meat themselves - examples ranging from AI produced satellite pictures, to ridiculous casualty claims to reposting video game snippets as proof. That discernment would furthermore lead to somewhat of a detox though, all a thirdworldist's fav go-to channels are pushing copious amounts of feel-good content

One example. Yesterday RussiaToday one on one copied Iranian regime propaganda on 560 dead and injured US servicemen in Bahrain alone - never mind the plausible deniability that was built in. This was then one on one copied by a wide network of foreign paid propaganda enablers from all backgrounds and angles. This is obviously a ploy to destabilize and influence the US public and thereby force the Trump Administration into backing off through public opinion - a craft perfected in the Vietnam War.



 
Hegseth this morning was spewing word-salad.
He sounded like a former employee, now consultant trying not to say I-told-you-so to the managers of the firm where he used to work how he'd just proven them wrong with his new high efficiency model mousetrap.

"See guys?! I told you this was the best way to wage an air war! Why didn't you listen to me when I was on salary? Sheesh!"
 
A Russian Kometa CRPA anti-jamming antenna has allegedly been found in the Shahed drone that struck the British airbase in Cypress.




Is Centcom concealing the true number of US casualties?





Trump is now blaming Biden and Obama.

 
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This is bad. Marco Rubio is a nervous mess. Things have clearly gone off the rails.




I think the really thought if they took out the Iranian top leadership that the people would overthrow the regime. Which is really stupid to think, but the west arrogance knows no bounds. It appears the Iranian citizens are righteously angry at us for bombing kids and killing their spiritual leader in the most cowardly way possible. I wonder if they have any other plans of how to off ramp this.
 
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